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New Year's Eve Threat


ski MRG

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I just lost a nice post and don't feel like repeating it..lol.

Basically I think week 3 could trend warm given what I saw. It will come down to two things. The MJO and the AO. If the AO is strong, you have faster westerly winds and a ridge beat down.If it weakens and it might temporarily, then you have more amplitude. We also have a developing Caspian ridge too, which may help nudge the PV south and even split it. MJO may try to help out if you believe the GEFS, but the euro weakens it into the COD and goes back towards phase 4. I just don't see an overall pattern change especially if the euro is right and brings the vortex back to AK.

This software has autosave now so posts should be saved if you accidentally click out of the post screen.
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What effect is that massive LP having in the far upper midwest?

Is it acting as the 'kicker'?

Not necessarily, I just think we want the low to our north to be strong enough and force the boundary south like the euro op as. A nice polar high will keep temps pretty cold even at BOS. GFS is trying to do that, but the euro op last night was something that caught my eye. I liked it.

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Regardless of sensible weather, gotta keep the big picture in mind. If the second trough over the Northern Plains is allowed to bomb like it does, that's the beginning of a notable disturbance in the +NAO regime. This trough does act as a kicker to the NYE s/w ... but actually, with respect to changes to the NYE storm on the 12z GFS, look at the arrangement of the smaller impulses within the trough over the Northeast.

Anyway, I'd rather have the more strung out energy on the 12z GFS, because it sets up the next trough to bomb and cut off. Could be the trigger we need to upset the stable regime

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