CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 gfs is not bad.. I'll take it right now, looks like snow but very close call for the ema/cp It would be a cold rain for us, I think. Boundary layer too warm...you just can't have south winds with a warming column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The difference between 00z nam and 00z GFS is that GFS is faster and phases the shortwave to the north with the main s/w...the NAM lets the northern one run ahead and creates a bit of a split flow which is why I thought it might look decent if extrapolated out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 gfs is not bad.. I'll take it right now, looks like snow but very close call for the ema/cp Raul, just move on from this....it gon' rain...again. Hope for a few flakes on Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Raul, just move on from this....it gon' rain...again. Hope for a few flakes on Fri. Its good to keep expectations low, but the Euro does offer some hope and the ensembles as well as they have been trending south with trying to push this whole shortwave under us...and if they make the s/w a bit sharper and dig it SE a bit more, it can actually be a decent event. Obviously no reason to start getting the snow shovels out or anything, but there is at least a bit of promise in this one. Enough to keep half an eye on. Definitely a chance it turns to garbage, but it probably has a better chance than the 12/23 event did...though that one turned to crap really really fast. Difference was it was always a SWFE, and not a clipper diving ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Its good to keep expectations low, but the Euro does offer some hope and the ensembles as well as they have been trending south with trying to push this whole shortwave under us...and if they make the s/w a bit sharper and dig it SE a bit more, it can actually be a decent event. Obviously no reason to start getting the snow shovels out or anything, but there is at least a bit of promise in this one. Enough to keep half an eye on. Definitely a chance it turns to garbage, but it probably has a better chance than the 12/23 event did...though that one turned to crap really really fast. Difference was it was always a SWFE, and not a clipper diving ESE. Yeah I'm not completely writing it off yet..it's not an impossible deal to get some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Boing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Boing. Not yet..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I wish this could pull a 2008 NYE clipper and trend north in the final 3 days. Hopefully the euro has something where it's close to going underneath. I could totally see something like what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I wish this could pull a 2008 NYE clipper and trend north in the final 3 days. Hopefully the euro has something where it's close to going underneath. I could totally see something like what the GFS shows. Why would you want it to trend north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Raul, just move on from this....it gon' rain...again. Hope for a few flakes on Fri. Hey Ray, I sure hope not!, I'm not invested in this much, but will check in over the next few days. This winter is unreal so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Why would you want it to trend north? I think he meant south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think he meant south. Yes probably because now that I think of 12/31/08//the shortwave kept trending south and deeper and it eventually turned into a nice little 4-8" event for us when it looked like 1-3" 60 hours out. That's when Kevin was obsessed with 6-10" on Jan 3, 2009 and we told him to focus on the nearer event as the longer range one can vaporize much easier...and sure enough it did, but the Dec 31 event got better as we got closer. Only difference was that pattern was awesome with a huge Greenland block developing. But that is not to say this one cannot produce. At least its been trending better in the very precarious 100 hour time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yes probably because now that I think of 12/31/08//the shortwave kept trending south and deeper and it eventually turned into a nice little 4-8" event for us when it looked like 1-3" 60 hours out. That's when Kevin was obsessed with 6-10" on Jan 3, 2009 and we told him to focus on the nearer event as the longer range one can vaporize much easier...and sure enough it did, but the Dec 31 event got better as we got closer. Only difference was that pattern was awesome with a huge Greenland block developing. But that is not to say this one cannot produce. At least its been trending better in the very precarious 100 hour time range. That was the NYD that you called me on the way back from meg's to let me know where the snow started to appear in CT. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro is pretty good...almost a mini-Miller B. A good 1-3" for SNE...but potential for more. The trend is def good. Euro has def been trending better overall. Still 100-110 hours out so its not worth getting overly excited about, but a good run for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I see two s/w's on the Euro. One centered around 84 hours and one around 100-110 hours. Both produce - SN. Euro is pretty good...almost a mini-Miller B. A good 1-3" for SNE...but potential for more. The trend is def good. Euro has def been trending better overall. Still 100-110 hours out so its not worth getting overly excited about, but a good run for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Lol at day 8 on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro is pretty good...almost a mini-Miller B. A good 1-3" for SNE...but potential for more. The trend is def good. Euro has def been trending better overall. Still 100-110 hours out so its not worth getting overly excited about, but a good run for most of SNE. Yeah as we thought yesterday this threat is our first real one since Helloween. Looks like we'll be ringing in a snowy NY....and then next week the Euro bombs much of the east coast with snow. with the coldest air of the season to follow. Eurom weeklies now col weeks 2 and 3 HM is good...damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Lol at the Dc hecs jan 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Looked at the 7-10 day 500mb means and the Euro has a huge Rockies ridge and deep trough which the HPC is buying. The GFS ridge is much flatter. Both models seem to be building high pressure over the pole. There are still vortices near or east of greenland although it looks to me like the Euro has heights building from the north atlantic towards Greenland as the vortex gets displaced. GFS has the semblance of a 50-50. Looks really interesting and like a pattern change. If the ridging gets established around the pole wouldn't that have to disrupt the low over Alaska? Here is what HPC says... NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 308 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 31 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012 ...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 140TH MERIDIAN WEST. THIS CAUSES SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CEASE ON SATURDAY/ AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. BY SUNDAY...THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GEFS MEAN PROGRESS THE TROUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE FLOW IS SO AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM...A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF GOES A STEP TOO FAR BY DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE...BUT ITS SOLUTION IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STARTED WITH A 40/40/20 COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN EARLY ON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. PRESSURE-WISE...THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Nice to see some optimism in here. Just needed a little juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Also, I have to say on the Euro the Alaska vortex is strongly in place and deep. But if that ridging is stronger and we get some good stuff happening from Asia, then that thing get squeezed and displaced I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Over/Under of 2" Anything more than 2" and it's a major snowstorm by 2011-12 standards. LOL Yeah as we thought yesterday this threat is our first real one since Helloween. Looks like we'll be ringing in a snowy NY....and then next week the Euro bombs much of the east coast with snow. with the coldest air of the season to follow. Eurom weeklies now col weeks 2 and 3 HM is good...damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Great to wake up to some positive news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Great to wake up to some positive news! What good news is that........6zgfs cuts every single storm west of us for the duration of the run, was the worst run in days. Same ole story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Why would you want it to trend north? Lack of sleep was getting to me. I defintely meant south..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Over/Under of 2" Anything more than 2" and it's a major snowstorm by 2011-12 standards. LOL I will take 2" of snow over a single drop of rain at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah as we thought yesterday this threat is our first real one since Helloween. Looks like we'll be ringing in a snowy NY....and then next week the Euro bombs much of the east coast with snow. with the coldest air of the season to follow. Eurom weeklies now col weeks 2 and 3 HM is good...damn good Relax..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Everyone hop on the sne winter reality tour, first stop wagons north...............all aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think NYE '06-2007 saw a couple of inches over night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think NYE '06-2007 saw a couple of inches over night.... I got an inch of rain soaked glop. Awful storm. That was NYE 07-08...not sure of the 06-07 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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