ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It has a shot...even if it tracks a bit north, the interior still might get away with it. But I'd def keep expectations low...hopefully as we get closer, it slides off to the south. One thing that is decent (at least on the Euro) is that the air mass in place for it is not a putrid rotting marine airmass...as long as we are south of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Did you manage anything from the windex stuff? I did ultimately get a decent dusting ...which has now melted. Same here Rick, heavy heavy dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Reasoning? To be fair this is a meteorology forum and not a hope forum. well, Brian, having been obsessed with Winter weather for more than 40 years I've noted that patterns, even stable ones, don't last forever. I believe this one's shelf life is up. I've read a number of posts from more knowledgeable people than me that feel this may well be the case. This is also not a pessimism forum . Past performance is not always indicative of future results. The AK vortex will not last forever and climo alone suggests we will have increased opportunities. Perhaps you would care to expound on the reasons you agree or disagree. Thanks for asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 well, Brian, having been obsessed with Winter weather for more than 40 years I've noted that patterns, even stable ones, don't last forever. I believe this one's shelf life is up. I've read a number of posts from more knowledgeable people than me that feel this may well be the case. This is also not a pessimism forum . Past performance is not always indicative of future results. The AK vortex will not last forever and climo alone suggests we will have increased opportunities. Perhaps you would care to expound on the reasons you agree or disagree. Thanks for asking. Well we've had winters where the overall pattern sucked from start to finish. You can have good periods in a crappy pattern...and given your location..you are more likely to hold onto snowpack when you do get snow in a crappy pattern..but the patterns don't always snap. I'm hoping we have a decent finish, but we need a major overhaul right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 well, Brian, having been obsessed with Winter weather for more than 40 years I've noted that patterns, even stable ones, don't last forever. I believe this one's shelf life is up. I've read a number of posts from more knowledgeable people than me that feel this may well be the case. This is also not a pessimism forum . Past performance is not always indicative of future results. The AK vortex will not last forever and climo alone suggests we will have increased opportunities. Perhaps you would care to expound on the reasons you agree or disagree. Thanks for asking. Patterns have a shelf life, but the key is not having the hiatus being short lived...we briefly got rid of the AK vortex in mid-December but it came right back so it was as if the pattern never really changed. We've seen this phenomenon in past winters before. If every winter had a big break in a bad pattern and gave us a 4-6 week favorable setup, we'd likely all average 150% of what climo currently dictates. We can also get rid of the AK vortex and still get screwed if other parts of the puzzle stink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Well we've had winters where the overall pattern sucked from start to finish. You can have good periods in a crappy pattern...and given your location..you are more likely to hold onto snowpack when you do get snow in a crappy pattern..but the patterns don't always snap. I'm hoping we have a decent finish, but we need a major overhaul right now. '94-'95 and '06-'07 come to mind. You held onto snow for a while after it did come, but those winters were lousy overall..especially here in the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Well we've had winters where the overall pattern sucked from start to finish. You can have good periods in a crappy pattern...and given your location..you are more likely to hold onto snowpack when you do get snow in a crappy pattern..but the patterns don't always snap. I'm hoping we have a decent finish, but we need a major overhaul right now. I think the odds of running the table with this pattern are rather low. In reviewing the Chesterfield co-ops data there have certainly been some bad years but they are not that frequent. I can remember winters that started out like gang busters only to have the pattern flip abruptly in the other direction. I can also remember Winters that started out horribly and then flipped to a positive regime. 2007 is the most recent I can recall. Nobody has a crystal ball and nobody can say definitively what the final outcome will be. I'll go with my gut. BTW, it's not wishcasting either. To be honest I'm likely to be gone for an extended period this Winter so I really don't have a dog in the fight. I just believe the worm has turned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Sing along with me... I can't remember ..a worse December..Oh baby it;s been warm outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Patterns have a shelf life, but the key is not having the hiatus being short lived...we briefly got rid of the AK vortex in mid-December but it came right back so it was as if the pattern never really changed. We've seen this phenomenon in past winters before. If every winter had a big break in a bad pattern and gave us a 4-6 week favorable setup, we'd likely all average 150% of what climo currently dictates. We can also get rid of the AK vortex and still get screwed if other parts of the puzzle stink. True, there are no guarantees. However, with 36+" in the bank before Jan 1st, even with this horrible pattern. I would bet we hit at least average before all is said and done. While you might say that take away the Oct storm and we'd be way behind the fact of the matter is it did happen and it counts. Having watched Winter weather for so long, I would not bet on this persisting for much longer. Perhaps I'll be very wrong. If so I'll nurse my bruised ego in deep AK powder.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 I think that an overly pessimistic woe is me attitude is as contemptable as a weenie goggle attitude. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 True, there are no guarantees. However, with 36+" in the bank before Jan 1st, even with this horrible pattern. I would bet we hit at least average before all is said and done. While you might say that take away the Oct storm and we'd be way behind the fact of the matter is it did happen and it counts. Having watched Winter weather for so long, I would not bet on this persisting for much longer. Perhaps I'll be very wrong. If so I'll nurse my bruised ego in deep AK powder.lol 98% of that cam in OCtober.......like you said in the banter thread, its just awful, raging southeaster tomorrow night with flooding and torch all the way to the canadian border, MRG might not open for weeks and weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I think the odds of running the table with this pattern are rather low. In reviewing the Chesterfield co-ops data there have certainly been some bad years but they are not that frequent. I can remember winters that started out like gang busters only to have the pattern flip abruptly in the other direction. I can also remember Winters that started out horribly and then flipped to a positive regime. 2007 is the most recent I can recall. Nobody has a crystal ball and nobody can say definitively what the final outcome will be. I'll go with my gut. BTW, it's not wishcasting either. To be honest I'm likely to be gone for an extended period this Winter so I really don't have a dog in the fight. I just believe the worm has turned. Yeah it totally could flip...I'm just saying we all have had winters where the pattern kind of stunk. Obviously, this complete lack of snow won't last forever..especially where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 One big snowstorm around Feb. 10 (give or take ) in 1995. It was the first storm I really tracked on the net...so kinda fun. Otherwise yes that winter was junk. '94-'95 and '06-'07 come to mind. You held onto snow for a while after it did come, but those winters were lousy overall..especially here in the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's gonna be totally deceptive when people look back at 11-12 snowfall with that Oct. snowfall added in ...for those of you that got a lot. Seems like it shouldn't count. 98% of that cam in OCtober.......like you said in the banter thread, its just awful, raging southeaster tomorrow night with flooding and torch all the way to the canadian border, MRG might not open for weeks and weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 well, Brian, having been obsessed with Winter weather for more than 40 years I've noted that patterns, even stable ones, don't last forever. I believe this one's shelf life is up. I've read a number of posts from more knowledgeable people than me that feel this may well be the case. This is also not a pessimism forum . Past performance is not always indicative of future results. The AK vortex will not last forever and climo alone suggests we will have increased opportunities. Perhaps you would care to expound on the reasons you agree or disagree. Thanks for asking. We have had a persistent AK vortex most of the cold season and every index has generally been against us. Obviously climo is getting a little more favorable and the AK vortex "won't last forever". It's not like I'm implying it will never snow again this winter or that we won't time some events just right for decent snows. However there is a lot of work to do to make this a consistently wintry pattern. Most of the mets here have been pessimistic based on the data and pattern, and not because they are having a "woe is me" attitude. The pattern has sucked for northeast snow/cold and there's no other way to sugarcoat it. You've been saying the pattern's "shelf life" is over for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Nice FROPA on the Euro at 180h... shot at severe maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I think that an overly pessimistic woe is me attitude is as contemptable as a weenie goggle attitude. Thank you. C'mon Pete...let's be honest. You wear a scaled back version of weenie goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 98% of that cam in OCtober.......like you said in the banter thread, its just awful, raging southeaster tomorrow night with flooding and torch all the way to the canadian border, MRG might not open for weeks and weeks. Not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 C'mon Pete...let's be honest. You wear a scaled back version of weenie goggles. I don't think that's true. I get excited by snow events but I don't turn a blind eye toward adverse forecasts inside of 4-5 days. It's not like I expect tomorrow's system to jump SE and give me snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 MRG isn't open? Don't they make snow? Not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's gonna be totally deceptive when people look back at 11-12 snowfall with that Oct. snowfall added in ...for those of you that got a lot. Seems like it shouldn't count. Im not counting it. Most if not all the snow was gone in 1 to 2 days. It was a complete waste IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 MRG isn't open? Don't they make snow? They only have 3 guns and their use is confined to the lower mountain. High seasonal average keeps them afloat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Im not counting it. Most if not all the snow was gone in 1 to 2 days. It was a complete waste IMO Not here. Not a waste at all. I got a few days of great skiing in because of it. A waste.pfft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Hah ...snow is never a waste. But yeah probably shouldn't count.... Im not counting it. Most if not all the snow was gone in 1 to 2 days. It was a complete waste IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Euro ensembles aren't bad for the NYE threat...they slide the mean SLP just south of SNE or along the S coast and have what looks like potentially secondary development E of the Cape...so that is not bad for a mean...it would give most of the region a shot. But its still safe to expect little out of this until we get close enough to see the guidance resolving the multiple shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Euro ensembles aren't bad for the NYE threat...they slide the mean SLP just south of SNE or along the S coast and have what looks like potentially secondary development E of the Cape...so that is not bad for a mean...it would give most of the region a shot. But its still safe to expect little out of this until we get close enough to see the guidance resolving the multiple shortwaves. Yeah at least there has been a slow tick south with that. I would just like to see that south..that's step 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 A cursory look at the op. Euro shows a torch around New Years I thought followed by a front and some anafrontal waves around H180.... I assume this is after the clipper then.... Euro ensembles aren't bad for the NYE threat...they slide the mean SLP just south of SNE or along the S coast and have what looks like potentially secondary development E of the Cape...so that is not bad for a mean...it would give most of the region a shot. But its still safe to expect little out of this until we get close enough to see the guidance resolving the multiple shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 A cursory look at the op. Euro shows a torch around New Years I thought followed by a front and some anafrontal waves around H180.... I assume this is after the clipper then.... Yes that is a cutter that comes a day or two after the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yeah at least there has been a slow tick south with that. I would just like to see that south..that's step 1. The trend has been ok...at least its not trending warmer. It looks like temps are pretty decent as long as we are north of that boundary, so it should be able to snow if we track that wave just south of us. Still 108h out so no real use getting hopes up too high yet for an event...but at least its something to keep an eye on for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yes that is a cutter that comes a day or two after the clipper. WTF we get potential advisory snows with the clipper if things work out and then a wiping out of the snow 36 hours later.only to be replaced by cold a day later. At least it's something. This is a winter straight out of my childhood and teen yrs in the 1980's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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