ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think you may be too optimistic. The NAM to me looks horrible. Lol...we differ. I like the s/w projecting to be underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 00z NAM does look really good at 84h...but 84h NAM caveats apply of course. The trend on the Euro and ensembles has been decent and hopefully we will have something legit to track in the next 24 hours if we keep the trend on our side which has been a tough thing to do this season. Yes it does lets keep this clipper south and 12 starts off decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think you may be too optimistic. The NAM to me looks horrible. What? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Lol...we differ. I like the s/w projecting to be underneath us. The warm front is already to our north with south winds. Maybe the interior gets a burst of WAA snows, but I don't like the look of it. I do see the s/w looking like it may go underneath us, but I don't like the depiction on this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The warm front is already to our north with south winds. Maybe the interior gets a burst of WAA snows, but I don't like the look of it. I do see the s/w looking like it may go underneath us, but I don't like the depiction on this NAM run. There's a little weak vortmax ahead of the main one that causes some WAA, but I think we actually would cool a shade behind that before the main show arrives...at least in the MLs. There's some high pressure trying to nose down from the NW between 72-84h. It almost looks like a mini-Miller B trying to set up to me....but it might stink for the coast. But anyway, this is all the 84h NAM is likely wrong so probably not worth nitpicking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Anything to stop it from sliding north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 There's a little weak vortmax ahead of the main one that causes some WAA, but I think we actually would cool a shade behind that before the main show arrives...at least in the MLs. There's some high pressure trying to nose down from the NW between 72-84h. It almost looks like a mini-Miller B trying to set up to me....but it might stink for the coast. But anyway, this is all the 84h NAM is likely wrong so probably not worth nitpicking over. That's what I was thinking but as you said meh it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 There's a little weak vortmax ahead of the main one that causes some WAA, but I think we actually would cool a shade behind that before the main show arrives...at least in the MLs. There's some high pressure trying to nose down from the NW between 72-84h. It almost looks like a mini-Miller B trying to set up to me....but it might stink for the coast. But anyway, this is all the 84h NAM is likely wrong so probably not worth nitpicking over. I see that as well..I'm just not sure if it would be enough to save most of SNE..esp with sw winds at 850 and temps near 0C near libations fanny. Maybe that s/w can dig and the high nose down....but like you said..the NAM at 84 hrs might be worse than some of Joe's calls..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I see that as well..I'm just not sure if it would be enough to save most of SNE..esp with sw winds at 850 and temps near 0C near libations fanny. Maybe that s/w can dig and the high nose down....but like you said..the NAM at 84 hrs might be worse than some of Joe's calls..lol. Yeah we'll never know obviously without seeing it extrapolate out further...I just thought it looked like one of those things where as the s/w digs further SE...you see things start to collapse SE in the mid-levels. Even at 84h, the 850 flow is parallel to the isotherms...I was thinking we might see a brief secondary WAA surge as the s/w approaches but it quickly gets ripped SE as the vortmax hits the delmarva or S NJ coast. Usually that is a very good spot for us...even in a marginal airmass. Certainly the interior would have a better spot in a marginal airmass, but even BOS has done it many times in the past...1/14/08 was an example. Hopefully we can get a little redeveloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 00z NAM does look really good at 84h...but 84h NAM caveats apply of course. The trend on the Euro and ensembles has been decent and hopefully we will have something legit to track in the next 24 hours if we keep the trend on our side which has been a tough thing to do this season. please.. this is getting old.. drove to Northampton.. no snow... lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 please.. this is getting old.. drove to Northampton.. no snow... lame. you drove to northampton looking for snow? you'll never find it in the CT river valley! that goes without saying. head to the hill towns or the berkshires, but forget the valley. Snow on the ground west of fitchburg heading towards Greenfield last night, had to slow down a bit on Rt. 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah we'll never know obviously without seeing it extrapolate out further...I just thought it looked like one of those things where as the s/w digs further SE...you see things start to collapse SE in the mid-levels. Even at 84h, the 850 flow is parallel to the isotherms...I was thinking we might see a brief secondary WAA surge as the s/w approaches but it quickly gets ripped SE as the vortmax hits the delmarva or S NJ coast. Usually that is a very good spot for us...even in a marginal airmass. Certainly the interior would have a better spot in a marginal airmass, but even BOS has done it many times in the past...1/14/08 was an example. Hopefully we can get a little redeveloper. Sometimes a sign of things trying to turn around is a storm that actually breaks right for a change. It would be nice for one to actually trend a little better as we get closer. I'm so exhausted of watching things get worse within 48 hrs. Hopefully the 00z GFS continues where 18z left off for the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 you drove to northampton looking for snow? you'll never find it in the CT river valley! that goes without saying. head to the hill towns or the berkshires, but forget the valley. Snow on the ground west of fitchburg heading towards Greenfield last night, had to slow down a bit on Rt. 2. lol, not really looking for snow, but I was hoping to see some... I did not see much snow on rt2 at all all the way to 1-91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sometimes a sign of things trying to turn around is a storm that actually breaks right for a change. It would be nice for one to actually trend a little better as we get closer. I'm so exhausted of watching things get worse within 48 hrs. Hopefully the 00z GFS continues where 18z left off for the 30th. The jet looks decent too, this time period has been on and off the models as a potential, like a good football team way behind we need that little break to get us started. IMHO the cutter is shaking things up. That's a very powerful vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sometimes a sign of things trying to turn around is a storm that actually breaks right for a change. It would be nice for one to actually trend a little better as we get closer. I'm so exhausted of watching things get worse within 48 hrs. Hopefully the 00z GFS continues where 18z left off for the 30th. Yeah I would def keep expectations very low right now...until we get a clear cut signal that this will have a good chance to produce, we should expect the worst in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I understand Will and Scott's skepticism but it does appear to me that change is near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I understand Will and Scott's skepticism but it does appear to me that change is near. Because of this mess? Still looks sketchy to me. What is different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I understand Will and Scott's skepticism but it does appear to me that change is near. Well the system can still produce amid a bad pattern which it is. If the system produces it will merely be a change in luck, not the large scale pattern. We get snow events in crappy patterns all the time (relatively speaking)...so we are kind of due for one anyway. But usually you hedge pessimistic until it becomes obvious. There's some things to like in this synoptic setup, but also some aspects that may turn it to crap...but at least we have a chance in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well the system can still produce amid a bad pattern which it is. If the system produces it will merely be a change in luck, not the large scale pattern. We get snow events in crappy patterns all the time (relatively speaking)...so we are kind of due for one anyway. But usually you hedge pessimistic until it becomes obvious. There's some things to like in this synoptic setup, but also some aspects that may turn it to crap...but at least we have a chance in it. I guess the good news about this system is that whatever falls will likely stay around for a while due to the below normals temps coming after the storm. That is unlike any other snow chance we've had all year. It will be nice to have a 3-6" snow pack around, and maybe we can build on it even more come the Jan 2-5 time frame. I'm just fearful of a good looking storm 60 hours out trending North and North and North and North until we're raining. which sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well the system can still produce amid a bad pattern which it is. If the system produces it will merely be a change in luck, not the large scale pattern. We get snow events in crappy patterns all the time (relatively speaking)...so we are kind of due for one anyway. But usually you hedge pessimistic until it becomes obvious. There's some things to like in this synoptic setup, but also some aspects that may turn it to crap...but at least we have a chance in it. I was referring to an overall change not this storm sure the AO NAO is still crap but a pos PNA can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I guess the good news about this system is that whatever falls will likely stay around for a while due to the below normals temps coming after the storm. That is unlike any other snow chance we've had all year. It will be nice to have a 3-6" snow pack around, and maybe we can build on it even more come the Jan 2-5 time frame. Actually if the Euro is right, we get a cutter a couple days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Anything to stop it from sliding north? My juju.Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That cutter on the GFS bangs some cold in with wind and instability, maybe finally a true winter cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 please.. this is getting old.. drove to Northampton.. no snow... lame. Snow OTG here on the east slope. not the norm but white at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 My juju.Get ready. Hope so. Can you materialize hp to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 out to 66, 0z GFS brings the initial clipper disturbance a tad north from 18z, but also digs the lagging energy a bit more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 at 76, GFS is digging the energy even more, hope the SNE BL doesn't torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 (1) year ago....it snowed and it will snow again. Just not this year. LOL The times they are a changin. Liking the more amped look to the LW pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS is faster and further north than the NAM...not nearly as appetizing to the eye. But still might produce a small amount...esp for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 gfs is not bad.. I'll take it right now, looks like snow but very close call for the ema/cp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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