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Mid Week Storm Threat 12/28


dryslot

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Euro is a torch for everyone...powderfreak may end as some upslope snow.

Yeah this could turn bad in a hurry... BTV seemed optimistic but in my emails with them yesterday they were all saying "think snow" and "hopefully it snows" so they may be trying to be "pro-snow" right now.

They mention possible Advisory level snows on Sunday night and Monday morning with clipper/upslope, but then I don't get this if you guys are saying ECM is a torch for all:

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF PHASING

WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES

REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT THE

EVOLUTION/DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD CAPE COD

BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY

GENERALLY TUESDAY AFTN FROM SW-NE WITH HEAVIEST PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT.

VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT

SNOW...THOUGH SOME RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT DURING THE

FIRST SEVERAL HRS OF THE EVENT TUESDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT

RIVER VALLEY AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW IS GENERALLY QUICK MOVING

LIMITING OVERALL DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF AMTS. THAT

SAID...A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE

TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE HRS

ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS BECOMING MORE PHASED - AS

IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF SOLN - A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM WITH

GREATER SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL

CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

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Yeah this could turn bad in a hurry... BTV seemed optimistic but in my emails with them yesterday they were all saying "think snow" and "hopefully it snows" so they may be trying to be "pro-snow" right now.

They mention possible Advisory level snows on Sunday night and Monday morning with clipper/upslope, but then I don't get this if you guys are saying ECM is a torch for all:

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF PHASING

WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES

REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT THE

EVOLUTION/DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD CAPE COD

BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY

GENERALLY TUESDAY AFTN FROM SW-NE WITH HEAVIEST PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT.

VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT

SNOW...THOUGH SOME RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT DURING THE

FIRST SEVERAL HRS OF THE EVENT TUESDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT

RIVER VALLEY AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOW IS GENERALLY QUICK MOVING

LIMITING OVERALL DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF AMTS. THAT

SAID...A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE

TUESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE HRS

ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS BECOMING MORE PHASED - AS

IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF SOLN - A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM WITH

GREATER SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL

CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

I don't get it either...Euro was warm and west....which is what a phased system would promote...further west and warm. It does end as snow there, but there's def rain for a good portion before that. It rips the +4C 850 line up to like Montreal during the storm and there isn't much if anything on the front end as all the cold has been advected out prior to this storm.

Maybe this will buck the trend of getting warmer as we get closer, but there's really nothing in the pattern that would suggest it happens this time.

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I don't get it either...Euro was warm and west....which is what a phased system would promote...further west and warm. It does end as snow there, but there's def rain for a good portion before that. It rips the +4C 850 line up to like Montreal during the storm and there isn't much if anything on the front end as all the cold has been advected out prior to this storm.

Maybe this will buck the trend of getting warmer as we get closer, but there's really nothing in the pattern that would suggest it happens this time.

Someone's a little bitter after a bad December.

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No, we had a December like this 5 years ago...they happen.

Do you disagree with what I wrote?

I think we're skunked down south... but I think elevations up north could be OK. It's pretty close 96-102 hours on the Euro.

It's funny to see you go for mr. snow optimistic to Debbie Downer... the roles have been reversed!

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I think we're skunked down south... but I think elevations up north could be OK. It's pretty close 96-102 hours on the Euro.

It's funny to see you go for mr. snow optimistic to Debbie Downer... the roles have been reversed!

It looks pretty bad outside of upslope snow behind the storm. At least imo.

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I don't get it either...Euro was warm and west....which is what a phased system would promote...further west and warm. It does end as snow there, but there's def rain for a good portion before that. It rips the +4C 850 line up to like Montreal during the storm and there isn't much if anything on the front end as all the cold has been advected out prior to this storm.

Maybe this will buck the trend of getting warmer as we get closer, but there's really nothing in the pattern that would suggest it happens this time.

Yeah I'm with you on that one... looking at it on E-Wall I'm not sure how BTV comes up with that. We can hope it doesn't trend NW but if its been happening with every other system, what's stopping this one? It has me concerned given business levels this week. Rain mid week would be pretty devestating. I can spin it a bit if we are able to at least pick up some snow out of it but a full on pouring rain would definitely be a downer.

I'm trying not to think about it and just focus on some light snow Sunday night.

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:weenie:

No doubt it could turn ugly... just depends on the timing of how the northern and southern stream interact. Nothing glaring on the ensembles to me to send this thing way NW though it wouldn't surprise me.

The normal mets in the snow cheering section have turned anti-snow... the pattern has gotten to almost everyone!

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I don't get it either...Euro was warm and west....which is what a phased system would promote...further west and warm. It does end as snow there, but there's def rain for a good portion before that. It rips the +4C 850 line up to like Montreal during the storm and there isn't much if anything on the front end as all the cold has been advected out prior to this storm.

Maybe this will buck the trend of getting warmer as we get closer, but there's really nothing in the pattern that would suggest it happens this time.

Not true.

Before the storm the +4 850 line gets to Montreal but during the storm it gets to BTV. Which IMO is pretty borderline.

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It could certainly rip up through Syracuse like the GGEM shows but at least right now most of the models are decent or a close call for the Dacks and N VT.

Even the GGEM 6 hourlies aren't that bad... it does rain a bit but we get some light front end accumulations, then sleet. QPF is relatively light with 1/4-1/2" on that solution so with the 4-5" on the ground now, plus BTV's possible Advisory Level snowfall Sunday Night/Monday, if we waste some QPF on frozen precip, the rain portion wouldn't be all that bad, followed by some upslope behind it.

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Not true.

Before the storm the +4 850 line gets to Montreal but during the storm it gets to BTV. Which IMO is pretty borderline.

Yeah its another situation where the NW side will have no cold air around to begin with and even where it is snow, it'll be elevation dependent. You see the greater lift move in and the H85 line collapses.

Ahh whatever... I'm heading out for a few more runs. Beautiful first thing this morning with sunshine, heavy rime up high, 4-7" of snow caking the trees... it actually looks like a ski resort now and not a defunct ice skating rink.

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