CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Even the GGEM 6 hourlies aren't that bad... it does rain a bit but we get some light front end accumulations, then sleet. QPF is relatively light with 1/4-1/2" on that solution so with the 4-5" on the ground now, plus BTV's possible Advisory Level snowfall Sunday Night/Monday, if we waste some QPF on frozen precip, the rain portion wouldn't be all that bad, followed by some upslope behind it. Yeah and the GGEM was definitely the worst. Euro, UK, along with Euro Ens mean are pretty decent with some mixing during the height of the storm after front end and upslope thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah its another situation where the NW side will have no cold air around to begin with and even where it is snow, it'll be elevation dependent. You see the greater lift move in and the H85 line collapses. Agreed with that. Elevation will be important. But the 850 line was not up to CYUL during the storm on the Euro... it basically straddles 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Not true. Before the storm the +4 850 line gets to Montreal but during the storm it gets to BTV. Which IMO is pretty borderline. Yeah near the end of it...like I told powderfreak...it probably ends as snow on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah and the GGEM was definitely the worst. Euro, UK, along with Euro Ens mean are pretty decent with some mixing during the height of the storm after front end and upslope thumps. I guess it could end up in between the EC and GFS ensembles, but I just don't like how the warmer air aloft has all the time in the world to flood north out ahead of the system. My guess it that it may end up pretty lousy until the nw winds kick in and you get Powerfreak nudity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Somebody really wants it to snow in Vermont during his vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah near the end of it...like I told powderfreak...it probably ends as snow on the Euro. You said it gets to +4 at YUL during the storm... not even close. As the storm approaches 850s falls and when precip begins 850s are below 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Somebody really wants it to snow in Vermont during his vacation. Nah... I've split up vacation now. Skiing Monday and Tuesday... maybe Wednesday if things are good. And then heading back up to VT after New Years and doing Mt Snow or Stratton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 You said it gets to +4 at YUL during the storm... not even close. As the storm approaches 850s falls and when precip begins 850s are below 0c. As precip begins at ALB... 850s are sub 0c there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 You said it gets to +4 at YUL during the storm... not even close. As the storm approaches 850s falls and when precip begins 850s are below 0c. Ok, I should have said "just prior to the storm" if you want to get into semantics. Here is the height of the storm at 96h Maybe some pellets or snow grains in the NE Kingdom with the evap cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Ok, I should have said "just prior to the storm" if you want to get into semantics. Here is the height of the storm at 96h Maybe some pellets or snow grains in the NE Kingdom with the evap cooling. Yeah that's not as much of a fail as +4 to Montreal during the storm that starts out sub 0c. If we were talking about SNE people nit pick over 10 miles on an 850mb chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 VT Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 As precip begins at ALB... 850s are sub 0c there lol. Initially it's really warm, but it's a very dry warm. H85 RH is running < 10% so NNE wetbulbs down quite a bit as the moisture races in. It doesn't have a prayer in hell here, but I agree that NW VT has a shot...especially since they can cool the BL a lot easier with NW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah that's not as much of a fail as +4 to Montreal during the storm that starts out sub 0c. If we were talking about SNE people nit pick over 10 miles on an 850mb chart. Where are you going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Initially it's really warm, but it's a very dry warm. H85 RH is running < 10% so NNE wetbulbs down quite a bit as the moisture races in. It doesn't have a prayer in hell here, but I agree that NW VT has a shot...especially since they can cool the BL a lot easier with NW winds. Yeah... agreed. Too much hatorade in here. That said I could see the whole thing going NW by 150 miles with rain to YUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Where are you going? Stowe Mon-Wed... not sure I'll ski the last day. Stratton/Mt Snow Sun-Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah... agreed. Too much hatorade in here. It'll probably still torch to YUL or YQB, but I find it more interesting to follow than my cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 It'll probably still torch to YUL or YQB, but I find it more interesting to follow than my cold rain. Yeah nothing else to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Stowe Mon-Wed... not sure I'll ski the last day. Stratton/Mt Snow Sun-Mon. I just think that the storm is mostly a waste until you get the backside snow that's all. It looks rather wet, even if it starts out as a snow/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I just think that the storm is mostly a waste until you get the backside snow that's all. It looks rather wet, even if it starts out as a snow/mix. Could be yeah. At least it's something to track. Verbatim on the models now it's fairly interesting but if it ticks northwest it turns into a nasty wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Could be yeah. At least it's something to track. Verbatim on the models now it's fairly interesting but if it ticks northwest it turns into a nasty wintry mix. I was hoping it would snow up in the Lakes region this week, but that will be a fail. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I was hoping it would snow up in the Lakes region this week, but that will be a fail. Oh well. Yeah... that's why I split up my trip to the beginning and end of the week. Who knows maybe we luck out Tuesday night. I don't think it's as doom and gloom as you warministas indicate though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah... that's why I split up my trip to the beginning and end of the week. Who knows maybe we luck out Tuesday night. I don't think it's as doom and gloom as you warministas indicate though lol No I don't think it's a lock...I more or less mean that I might prepare for a sh*tty day skiing wise until you get that wrap around snow. If the GFS is right..that could be a different story. Even if I had a 2' snowpack right now...my gut would still lean to a mix then rain, but still time to work on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 No I don't think it's a lock...I more or less mean that I might prepare for a sh*tty day skiing wise until you get that wrap around snow. If the GFS is right..that could be a different story. Even if I had a 2' snowpack right now...my gut would still lean to a mix then rain, but still time to work on it. I think the Euro verbatim is brief mix to snow... to a period of sleet/ZR then back to snow. We're also talking about 2k-4kft. That's not awful. Obviously it could trend worse. I'm fine with not skiing anyway Wednesday and driving back since we're going up to Stratton New Years Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I think we're skunked down south... but I think elevations up north could be OK. It's pretty close 96-102 hours on the Euro. It's funny to see you go for mr. snow optimistic to Debbie Downer... the roles have been reversed! could it be your skiing trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Initially it's really warm, but it's a very dry warm. H85 RH is running < 10% so NNE wetbulbs down quite a bit as the moisture races in. It doesn't have a prayer in hell here, but I agree that NW VT has a shot...especially since they can cool the BL a lot easier with NW winds. GYX must be going with the GFS...they are talking about snow/rain and then over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 GYX must be going with the GFS...they are talking about snow/rain and then over to snow. If I was them I'd go with a cold rain, followed by a warmer rain, ending as a colder rain.Maybe we'll get an initial 10 minute period of sleet as the mid levels wetbulb down. Then I'll get to enter in a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Is that high pressure over greenland on the 63 hour nam.....oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 This one may not be snow for most but i am starting to like fridays potential as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 If I was them I'd go with a cold rain, followed by a warmer rain, ending as a colder rain. Maybe we'll get an initial 10 minute period of sleet as the mid levels wetbulb down. Then I'll get to enter in a trace. Ho ho ho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 This one may not be snow for most but i am starting to like fridays potential as well Yes. Maybe something tomorrow night ... forget Wednesday ... then end of next week we see more snow. That's the plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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