November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion

[mattie g]

Rainfall so far

BWI 0.12

DCA 0.06

IAD 0.07

And yet my backyard is still damp. Cool weather and lack of sun (due to massive trees in bak neighbors' yards) mean the yard just doesn't dry out come mid-October unless we get warmth and a lot of wind.

This month has pretty much been great weather-wise, and made even better by being in the Florida Panhandle this week for work.

[mitchnick]

Come on Mitch...an inch vs. .30???

I've had this argument with my wife before so I'm not going to have it with you....

[mitchnick]

fwiw, RGEM is pretty wet over the next few days with plenty to come after 48 hrs

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg

[H2O]

fwiw, RGEM is pretty wet over the next few days with plenty to come after 48 hrs

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg

GFS is fairly wet as well at 12z so not sure why the NAM stayed dry(I'm too lazy to go look at the differences track wise between the two)

[Ji]

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

the DC split is back...

edit: it never really went away

[Ji]

GFS is fairly wet as well at 12z so not sure why the NAM stayed dry(I'm too lazy to go look at the differences track wise between the two)

NAM is always dry till 24-36 hours before the event and then it always almost too wet

[Bob Chill]

Without having any real type of EC troughing and having a -pna for the balance of the month will likely lead to a dry month for the most part.

I'm really enjoying seasonal temps and dry weather this month. I broke a nice sweat on Saturday wearing shorts and a t-shirt. Driving into work today with the windows down was nice too.

[RodneyS]

it'll be tough probably but we're on pace so far

Your post got me to thinking about the relationship (or lack thereof) between being "on pace" with "what is most likely to happen." DCA has recorded only 0.06 inches of precipitation so far this month through 13+ days, and so you're absolutely correct that it is on pace to record less precipitation than the record low of 0.29 inches that were recorded there in November 1981. However, if you consider that Washington, DC has averaged 2.78 inches of precipitation in November during 1871-2010, all things being equal we would expect about an inch and a half of precipitation during November 15-30 (i.e., 2.78 inches over 30 days equals about .093 inches per day, and multiplying .093 inches per day by 16 days equals 1.49 inches). Accordingly, even though we're currently on pace for a record low amount of precipitation this month, the odds of it happening are actually pretty slim.

[MN Transplant]

Your post got me to thinking about the relationship (or lack thereof) between being "on pace" with "what is most likely to happen." DCA has recorded only 0.06 inches of precipitation so far this month through 13+ days, and so you're absolutely correct that it is on pace to record less precipitation than the record low of 0.29 inches that were recorded there in November 1981. However, if you consider that Washington, DC has averaged 2.78 inches of precipitation in November during 1871-2010, all things being equal we would expect about an inch and a half of precipitation during November 15-30 (i.e., 2.78 inches over 30 days equals about .093 inches per day, and multiplying .093 inches per day by 16 days equals 1.49 inches). Accordingly, even though we're currently on pace for a record low amount of precipitation this month, the odds of it happening are actually pretty slim.

Through the first 14 days of November, the following years had 0.06" or less of precip

2005

2001

1964

1931

1918

1917

1878

1874

And because this is what we do, picking out the ninas only for the winter

01-02, northern tier torch, east dry

64-65, northern plains bitter, near normal temps and precip mid-atl

17-18, COLD and dry plains to east coast

[RodneyS]

Through the first 14 days of November, the following years had 0.06" or less of precip

2005

2001

1964

1931

1918

1917

1878

1874

And because this is what we do, picking out the ninas only for the winter

01-02, northern tier torch, east dry

64-65, northern plains bitter, near normal temps and precip mid-atl

17-18, COLD and dry plains to east coast

Thanks, it's very informative that eight other Novembers started this dry in DC, especially since the record-setting month of November 1981 is not on the list. DCA recorded measurable precipitation on the following days that month:

November 5th: 0.08 inch

November 6th: 0.19 inch

November 17th: 0.01 inch

November 24th: 0.01 inch

[North Balti Zen]

This would be spectacular weather for Opening Day. Someone fast forward this weather to late March/early April 2012.

[mattie g]

This would be spectacular weather for Opening Day. Someone fast forward this weather to late March/early April 2012.

A little too warm for soccer. 15 degrees or so less would be ideal.

[brad1551]

The best example of a mild November leading to a mild winter in this area is 2001. November 2001 in DC was a record high 54.8 degrees, and that was followed by 45.5 in December (tied for third highest all-time), 41.6 in January 2002 (14th highest all-time), and 42.6 in February (14th highest all-time). Snow at DCA during 2001-2002 was 3.2 inches and was even less at IAD (2.6 inches).

Thanks a bunch for the info..

[stormtracker]

NAM is always dry till 24-36 hours before the event and then it always almost too wet

Remember that come snowstorm time when it shows 3" QPF right before a storm.

[Avdave]

Today was gorgeous, loved it outside. Got more yard work done, now everything is done but turning off the water outside. Got another 2 weeks till I take care of that. Got to 72 here for a high, breeze made it even nicer out there. Rather have this wx now than say in late December.

[mattie g]

Today was gorgeous, loved it outside. Got more yard work done, now everything is done but turning off the water outside. Got another 2 weeks till I take care of that. Got to 72 here for a high, breeze made it even nicer out there. Rather have this wx now than say in late December.

I'd take 72 and sun at any time of the year.

To each his own, of course.

[North Balti Zen]

Zone forecast for bwi went with "wet", 1.5 to 2 inches of rain tomorrow through wednesday.

[nw baltimore wx]

I want to say that it sucks that it's 8PM in the middle of November and it's 70 degrees outside, but man, it feels good out there.

[RodneyS]

Through the first 14 days of November, the following years had 0.06" or less of precip

2005

2001

1964

1931

1918

1917

1878

1874

The final precipitation totals (in inches) for each of those months were as follows:

November 2005: 1.92

November 2001: 0.55

November 1964: 1.42

November 1931: 1.01

November 1918: 1.48

November 1917: 0.53

November 1878: 3.03

November 1874: 2.08

Average, 8 years: 1.50

So, the average of those eight years is very similar to what would be expected based on multiplying 16 (the number of days remaining in November) by the average of .093 inches of precipitation per day that has occurred in DC in November during 1871-2010. Let's see how close we come to that average this year.

[MDstorm]

NAM reconsidered and decided to put an end to talk of a record dry November.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F15%2F2011+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

MDstorm

[CranberryWX]

It's 70 degrees at midnight with a warm southerly wind ahead of this line of showers coming in. It's hot in the house even with the windows open...I'm temped to put the A/C on. The line of showers is moving in pretty fast. NWS says to expect wind gusts of 45 mph with it. Doesn't appear to be any lightning with it near here. Feels like a summer evening outside.

[Ji]

Wxrisk has been a disaster on facebook spinning his original bad forecast of a major pattern change by the 15h and then by Thanksgiving....etc. He is acting like he saw this all along with is complete BS.

I guess when you control your messaging and followers, you can spin anything you want and never be wrong

[Kevin Druff]

Wxrisk has been a disaster on facebook spinning his original bad forecast of a major pattern change by the 15h and then by Thanksgiving....etc. He is acting like he saw this all along with is complete BS.

I guess when you control your messaging and followers, you can spin anything you want and never be wrong

Actually, I think DT has played it pretty straight down the line. Yes, several weeks ago he called for a pattern flip by the 15th. Because that's what models were showing for several days. As that's changed, he's done a fairly good job of explaining WHAT the pattern is and HOW it has to change to get sustained cold into the east.

There are plenty of times when one call DT out for being a bombastic jackass and totally wrong (and I say that as someone who actually likes the guy). This isn't one of them.

Ji, don't be a dick towards other people just because you're mad that our temperatures are above average. You're acting like it's 70 when the average temperature is 45 not 57.

[H2O]

Had a couple sprinkles driving around this morning.

[Ian]

Some pics I took this past weekend of foliage in Rock Creek Park:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-other-side-of-washington-dc-a-weekend-of-near-peak-color-in-rock-creek-park/2011/11/14/gIQA8V2gON_blog.html

[Avdave]

Wxrisk has been a disaster on facebook spinning his original bad forecast of a major pattern change by the 15h and then by Thanksgiving....etc. He is acting like he saw this all along with is complete BS.

I guess when you control your messaging and followers, you can spin anything you want and never be wrong

DT is a master at doing that, anything to inflate his cocky ego more.

[Avdave]

Awesome overnight, got down to 59*, pretty incredible. Currently OVC and 63*, perfect temps outside.

[lbchandler]

Actually, I think DT has played it pretty straight down the line. Yes, several weeks ago he called for a pattern flip by the 15th. Because that's what models were showing for several days. As that's changed, he's done a fairly good job of explaining WHAT the pattern is and HOW it has to change to get sustained cold into the east.

There are plenty of times when one call DT out for being a bombastic jackass and totally wrong (and I say that as someone who actually likes the guy). This isn't one of them.

Ji, don't be a dick towards other people just because you're mad that our temperatures are above average. You're acting like it's 70 when the average temperature is 45 not 57.

It is not just DT I have been following several forecasters for the past few weeks and Joe Bastardi, Joe D'aleo Larry Cosgrove and a couple of others were saying that sometime between Nov 22 and Dec 1 all hell would start to break loose and that Dec and first two weeks of Jan would be very cold and snowy. Now it seems like all of them are pushing back the winter onset including DT. Were there forecasters who were saying DEc would be warm.? Just wondering.

[MN Transplant]

Max min records in play today. We'll have to see what happens with the rain.

[Ji]

It is not just DT I have been following several forecasters for the past few weeks and Joe Bastardi, Joe D'aleo Larry Cosgrove and a couple of others were saying that sometime between Nov 22 and Dec 1 all hell would start to break loose and that Dec and first two weeks of Jan would be very cold and snowy. Now it seems like all of them are pushing back the winter onset including DT. Were there forecasters who were saying DEc would be warm.? Just wondering.

Roger Smith predicted a warm December