baroclinic_instability Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Join the americanwx twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/AmericanWx I am the local tweet machine for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 what the fook is this? FUTURECAST Model from thebostonchannel.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You want to make love to the 18z NAM and/or the SREFS... 18z NAM has 0.82" QPF for Montpelier and 0.77" for Saint Johnsbury. Those are the two sites closest to you and that would be warning criteria snow in less than 12 hours. Solid snow growth too with max UVVs spiking through -16C to -20C air. Thanks. Just trying to learn...using the area I'm in as a tool. I really don't care if we snow or not in Oct, I just wan t to know the MET aspects of it, since I am going to school for it. I can make my own assessments to how much I'll get, I just want to know the MET behind it before I go ahead and forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hello all, back after summer filled with action. Birth of my son and following complications. Now he gets to experience his first taste of New England winter. I am pumped. Looks like all the players are set up for a historic storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm struggling with what to tell my friends who live in the CT river valley in the Hartford area. Any insight into how much the valley will affect accumulations? The models seem pretty bullish but I know that is not always how it shakes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks. Just trying to learn...using the area I'm in as a tool. I really don't care if we snow or not in Oct, I just wan t to know the MET aspects of it, since I am going to school for it. I can make my own assessments to how much I'll get, I just want to know the MET behind it before I go ahead and forecast. Well man I'd bet that even if the main part of the show is far from you you'll get some bands. You might not have constant snow but you will most definitely have some strong bands coming through your way. It's hard though, that's a lot more of a nowcast thing usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 what the fook is this? FUTURECAST Model from thebostonchannel.com LOL... 2-3 feet in SE CT while Gods Country sees snow showers and Albany doesn't even flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well man I'd bet that even if the main part of the show is far from you you'll get some bands. You might not have constant snow but you will most definitely have some strong bands coming through your way. It's hard though, that's a lot more of a nowcast thing usually. Thanks bud. Just wanting to know how others go about it. No hard feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks bud. Just wanting to know how others go about it. No hard feelings. No it's not like that...I learned the same thing you're learning right now the hard way. Lots of questions of "what will happen here" and all that. I'm only a couple of years older than you, I'm trying to learn too. You can never learn all there is to learn about met. However, when we're in preparation for a storm on here, people just don't like to sift through a lot of IMBY posts. Try to read, try to get the general gist...and PM a met if you want. That's what I've done, and a lot of them actually LOVE helping out (and teaching at the same time). This site is an amazing resource, you just have to figure out how to use it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No it's not like that...I learned the same thing you're learning right now the hard way. Lots of questions of "what will happen here" and all that. I'm only a couple of years older than you, I'm trying to learn too. You can never learn all there is to learn about met. However, when we're in preparation for a storm on here, people just don't like to sift through a lot of IMBY posts. Try to read, try to get the general gist...and PM a met if you want. That's what I've done, and a lot of them actually LOVE helping out (and teaching at the same time). This site is an amazing resource, you just have to figure out how to use it correctly. So you're back in Harwinton now? If the GFS somehow scores a coup you'll be like ground zero for heavy snow up near 1000'. Even if it doesn't still going to be a solid amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks. Just trying to learn...using the area I'm in as a tool. I really don't care if we snow or not in Oct, I just wan t to know the MET aspects of it, since I am going to school for it. I can make my own assessments to how much I'll get, I just want to know the MET behind it before I go ahead and forecast. Typically some portions of this low track are great for us... getting something to track close to Cape Cod is ideal but you want the storm moving north from there, not ENE like it is progged to. If you can get a low over say Portland, ME you can get excited. In general, the closer you can get it to the SNE mainland, the better and you want it hooking almost due north or negatively tilted like NNW from Cape Cod. That's when we get crushed. Also if we can get this to creep any further north (doesn't necessarily have to be west, but that's good too) there are some subtle signs of orographic enhancement towards the end of the system when the 850mb winds go NNW with cyclonic moisture in the flow. The models will usually under-estimate QPF when it is aided by orographics. You can see it on the QPF charts and RH/wind fields... Note the subtle arm of 0.1-0.25" QPF curling around N.VT and down the Spine of the Greens... likely that is our tail end orographic assist where we can get a nice burst of enhanced ratios as the lift happens lower in the atmosphere closer to the -12C isotherm in this case. Also it can be seen well on the RH maps as that sliver that lingers back across N.VT on a NNW flow. If we can get into the upper 20s with some orographic snow at the tail end, we might do ok as far as totals go... relative to October, not what falls in SNE, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z RGEM looks to have more or less held serve from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 My juju cup hath runeth ova. I may not see any snow out of this but I don't care. Seriously, just sit back and take this all in. Unreal to believe that it is still October and we have what may verify as a "blizzard" for some. I love it! Euro/NAM still gives me some wrap around love but I'm not holding my breath. I'm going to just sit back any enjoy an historical event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I drove from Uconn to Torrington today...amazing how many more leaves are still on the trees toward Tolland on 84 all the way through the CT valley. The trees are mostly bare up here but good God...if that part of the state gets even 6" it's going to be a disaster. At least it seems like places which will get more snow also have less leaves, for the most part. Yup......even at the higher elevations in E CT there are a LOT of leaves on trees.....still some green too. This is gonna be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No it's not like that...I learned the same thing you're learning right now the hard way. Lots of questions of "what will happen here" and all that. I'm only a couple of years older than you, I'm trying to learn too. You can never learn all there is to learn about met. However, when we're in preparation for a storm on here, people just don't like to sift through a lot of IMBY posts. Try to read, try to get the general gist...and PM a met if you want. That's what I've done, and a lot of them actually LOVE helping out (and teaching at the same time). This site is an amazing resource, you just have to figure out how to use it correctly. Yeah I haven't used the PM a lot..I should. Thanks dude. Best wishes with the snow...! Feet upon feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Climo is slapping this storm around for the eastern MA CP. I DO think ORH will get a nice dump as will Kevin with maybe 2-4 to Steve maybe up to Ray and T-2 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Will and I were just talking about how there may be one hell of a band coming through eastern areas early Sunday morning. That's probably when I get most of my snow, herald in by 50-60mph winds possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Adding to the prior post. Much of the region has thicknesses that are marginal for snow even in mid winter. That's a flag. However they crash so back end fun is definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Climo is slapping this storm around for the eastern MA CP. I DO think ORH will get a nice dump as will Kevin with maybe 2-4 to Steve maybe up to Ray and T-2 for me. I think Ray gets a lot more than 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Climo is slapping this storm around for the eastern MA CP. I DO think ORH will get a nice dump as will Kevin with maybe 2-4 to Steve maybe up to Ray and T-2 for me. if the euro were to verify, you'd do pretty good IMO (3-6"?)...that's putting a lot of faith in it, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My juju cup hath runeth ova. I may not see any snow out of this but I don't care. Seriously, just sit back and take this all in. Unreal to believe that it is still October and we have what may verify as a "blizzard" for some. I love it! Euro/NAM still gives me some wrap around love but I'm not holding my breath. I'm going to just sit back any enjoy an historical event. Not a lot of snow for me either but the wind is going to crank. My buddy from CL&P is saying that they're hoping that the wind will help keep much of the snow/ice off of the trees for the the interior folks. Just brought in extra wood and will hope cable television stays on for the games tomorrow night! Good luck everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There could be one hell of a stinger on the tail of this CCB as it exits stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There could be one hell of a stinger on the tail of this CCB as it exits stage right. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looking at the 2m temps. on wunderground for the 18z GFS, I'd think a lot of the snow forecasts are in trouble but maybe I shouldn't take them verbatim since they don't handle dynamic cooling well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I love how this went from an anonymous 2nd wave earlier this week to an 800lb gorilla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I love how this went from an anonymous 2nd wave earlier this week to an 800lb gorilla. You can thank me later. I signed on to the anonymous wave last Sun/Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My juju cup hath runeth ova. I may not see any snow out of this but I don't care. Seriously, just sit back and take this all in. Unreal to believe that it is still October and we have what may verify as a "blizzard" for some. I love it! Euro/NAM still gives me some wrap around love but I'm not holding my breath. I'm going to just sit back any enjoy an historical event. It's regional juju Bob. Not running over at all, in fact, at its highest point ever!! Most of the people on here will see more snow in this one storm than they will see ever again in any October. You will get yours this winter, I promise. You have shared your juju with the rest of us, and the good karma will come back to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For a lot of folks the tail maybe the whole storm. Whover gets under that last band wins the title for southern sections. North of a line from Danbury to ORH you probably get clobbered no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You can thank me later. I signed on to the anonymous wave last Sun/Mon Thanks, dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's interesting that GFS held steady with a further W warmer track in contrast to NAM/Euro at 48 hours out, and increasingly looks like it will have been the superior model. Mets correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this happened similarly on the Boxer's Day Blizzard and several other SECS last year. Euro is not always king, and EE rule is not a guarantee within 48 hrs ---- that being said, let's see the 0Z suites take back those titles!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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