dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Typically, The models start to back off on precip by now and it seems like it keeps increasing.....WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 700mb low basically tracks across LI, BID, MVY, ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 not bad up here... 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 looks about the same as 12z, but need to see better graphics @ 36 vs. 12z looks almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS is insane Has Kevin finally gotten to you? I was expecting the usual Debbie Downer post about how this thing is gonna be all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS is Gods Country slammer... bullseye. Surprise, surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Has Kevin finally gotten to you? I was expecting the usual Debbie Downer post about how this thing is gonna be all rain Maybe for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 for a track over BID and MVY and ACK you'd expect that NW back edge farther northwest, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 for a track over BID and MVY and ACK you'd expect that NW back edge farther northwest, no? dude, you'll get at least 2-4...b happy, it's october...and end up with instability snowshowers in the mountains all fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 dude, you'll get at least 2-4...b happy, it's october Its a simple question...wondering how why and it occurs...calm down bro..sorry i want a different outcome than you...I want everyone to get snow, though so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well two CL&P linecrews are already sitting further upon my street, early preps or someone already lost power before the first flake lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 for a track over BID and MVY and ACK you'd expect that NW back edge farther northwest, no? Remember what I said yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I normally don't copy and paste these but here's a good one from NWS in Albany. POWERFUL WINTER LIKE STORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY AND AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE A HISTORIC OCTOBER SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES IN THE AREAS WHERE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND EXTENSIVE FOLLIAGE REMAINS ON THE TREES. FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED EVEN THOUGH THE 7 INCH SNOW CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET...BECAUSE OF THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. IN MANY WAYS THIS EVENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE OCTOBER 4 1987 STORM...BUT BECAUSE THIS STORM IS OCCURRING MORE THAN THREE WEEKS LATER...TREES ACROSS MANY HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHERN AREAS HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR LEAVES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES MAY ACTUALLY BE LESS IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN IN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE MOST OF THE FOLIAGE REMAINS ON THE TREES. Wow...pretty strong wording from a normally conservative NWS Office. We have about 30-40% of the leaves still on the trees, mostly oaks and Norway maples. I'd imagine the CT and Hudson Valleys still have at least 60-70% of their leaves still on...recipe for disaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow...pretty strong wording from a normally conservative NWS Office. We have about 30-40% of the leaves still on the trees, mostly oaks and Norway maples. I'd imagine the CT and Hudson Valleys still have at least 60-70% of their leaves still on...recipe for disaster! Probably more than that to be honest. I barely have any leaves on my yard. Hell some of the trees are completely green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 for a track over BID and MVY and ACK you'd expect that NW back edge farther northwest, no? usually someone further N and W than progged gets slammed with a heavy band....just depends where it sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Remember what I said yesterday? Just a simple question...there are others here from NNE. Powderfreak comments all the time. Its just a question I'd like answered. Thats why I come here. To get ANALYSIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its a simple question...wondering how why and it occurs...calm down bro..sorry i want a different outcome than you...I want everyone to get snow, though so.. depends on the dynamics of the storm i guess...compact precip shields can happen, this is not the case though....typically when we have a nor'easter over the bm, NVT, NNH get screwed...when there's an CT river valley runner, I'm in flooding and you're going to be digging out from 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 usually someone further N and W than progged gets slammed with a heavy band....just depends where it sets up Ah. Thank you very much. I just wasn't sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 depends on the dynamics of the storm i guess...compact precip shields can happen, this is not the case though....typically when we have a nor'easter over the bm, NVT, NNH get screwed...when there's an CT river valley runner, I'm in flooding and you're going to be digging out from 2 feet Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ah. Thank you very much. I just wasn't sure. it will happen again, just be on the lookout for it not sure where lyndonville is though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just a simple question...there are others here from NNE. Powderfreak comments all the time. Its just a question I'd like answered. Thats why I come here. To get ANALYSIS. Listen more, ask fewer IMBY questions during a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ginx they may have a few more trails open per the message I just got. You can see in the webcam they're working on the trails next to K2. I'm betting they pop a few more if they get a solid foot Saturday and saturday night of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Probably more than that to be honest. I barely have any leaves on my yard. Hell some of the trees are completely green! Same. I have the feeling that we may be screwed in the power department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Listen more, ask fewer IMBY questions during a storm. k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow 45 pages from the time I went to work and get home, impressive....should make for a good read later. 46 cirrus deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There's probably going to be multiple bands too in this setup...with the 700 low tracking south and staying fairly compact...we will see continuous regeneration of the bands most likely...kind of like 1/12. That sounds delicious. Someone could get a lolli to 18 or perhaps an inch or two more. I agree. Might be near GC. Nice. All set to hunker down here at the Ranch and watch it pile up. Best thing is it'll be snow on snow. Immediate accumulation. Wow...pretty strong wording from a normally conservative NWS Office. We have about 30-40% of the leaves still on the trees, mostly oaks and Norway maples. I'd imagine the CT and Hudson Valleys still have at least 60-70% of their leaves still on...recipe for disaster! I was down near Hudson, NY last weekend and I'd say that yor estimate is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Probably more than that to be honest. I barely have any leaves on my yard. Hell some of the trees are completely green! There's quite a bit down here but there's still plenty left for carnage. Irene should have taught me to get a generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its a simple question...wondering how why and it occurs...calm down bro..sorry i want a different outcome than you...I want everyone to get snow, though so.. You want to make love to the 18z NAM and/or the SREFS... 18z NAM has 0.82" QPF for Montpelier and 0.77" for Saint Johnsbury. Those are the two sites closest to you and that would be warning criteria snow in less than 12 hours. Solid snow growth too with max UVVs spiking through -16C to -20C air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There's quite a bit down here but there's still plenty left for carnage. Irene should have taught me to get a generator Coastal CT is even worse. Still some green leaves down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I drove from Uconn to Torrington today...amazing how many more leaves are still on the trees toward Tolland on 84 all the way through the CT valley. The trees are mostly bare up here but good God...if that part of the state gets even 6" it's going to be a disaster. At least it seems like places which will get more snow also have less leaves, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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