HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I noticed that too, but if you extrapolate where that nice blue color is representing >50% chance of 8" or more it looks to be surrounding you by a healthy margin in either direction. And me too, I'm really liking how things have been going. Almost thinking it's close enough to go get gas for the snowblower that I won't ginx it. I was thinking the same. I should wait until Saturday after soccer. I guess I can put off raking for a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol. Seriously considering it. Of course then I need an electrician to make sure I don't burn the place down. 50% oaks here. Loaded with leaves You are welcome to have any you want for cordwood Lol. You can save the electrician for when you have more time. But even without wiring it, you can run extensions off it for essentials like the dvd/tv for the young'uns, coffee. Perhaps an electric heat source. You won't be able to get the well, water heater and furnace up without the electrician, but at least being able to have lights and a space heater can help with the sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM is crazy cold back here... kisses the -8c 850 isotherm to BDL at 00z Sunday. NUTS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Foothills? Same here, Both my oaks are loaded IIRC, they're pin oaks, which are pretty tough, and their horizontal/downsloped branches are usually less vulnerable than the upturned limbs on red oak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 someone in the hills is going to get 2ft out of this!!! NAM is crazy cold back here... kisses the -8c 850 isotherm to BDL at 00z Sunday. NUTS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has a Dec 2005-esque commahead go over E MA at the end...so even BOS might get nailed for a few hours there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah--problem is it has the CCB way back west to the Hudson valley NAM is crazy cold back here... kisses the -8c 850 isotherm to BDL at 00z Sunday. NUTS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has a Dec 2005-esque commahead go over E MA at the end...so even BOS might get nailed for a few hours there. yeah GFS had the same kind of look with a pretty violent looking end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah--problem is it has the CCB way back west to the Hudson valley Well 700 low tracks underneath us... so I'm not too concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I endorse Albany's warning upgrade. Also like that my p/c has 8-12" for Saturday night. Locked and loaded. ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES FOR VALLEY AREAS OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...CONNECTICUT VALLEY OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND VALLEYS AREAS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FEET WITH LOCALLY UP TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lol. Seriously considering it. Of course then I need an electrician to make sure I don't burn the place down. 50% oaks here. Loaded with leaves You are welcome to have any you want for cordwood OT: Please keep it local. Don't want to give rides to Asian Longhorn Beetle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Matt Noyes is real conservative for many areas...4" for HFTD...6 for ORH, most in berks (9-12) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yeah GFS had the same kind of look with a pretty violent looking end. It drops like 5 or 6mb in 3 hours there...that 5h low is trying to rip a hole in the atmosphere there at the end much like Dec '05....someone may get a 2-3 hour period of +TSSN with 50-70mph gusts at the end if that happens, lol. We'll have to track that potential...hard to say just how it plays out because it will obviously be mesoscale and involve convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Asked this earlier-- How significant will the winds be for those us so far from the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even if the snow turns powdery at in the 2nd half of the storm, it won't matter much because it will just stick to the wet snow already stuck on the trees. That's actually what Dec 1992 did here..the 2nd half of that storm was powder, but it had a sticky base to accumulate onto. Plus its only going to take about 3-6" of paste to get huge power outages...so that will likely be achieved before the snow turns drier if it ever does. True good point. It seems like 3-4 inches is when the power issues start.. So you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Same here, Both my oaks are loaded IIRC, they're pin oaks, which are pretty tough, and their horizontal/downsloped branches are usually less vulnerable than the upturned limbs on red oak. Check my pics..Are those Oaks at risk lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM is crazy cold back here... kisses the -8c 850 isotherm to BDL at 00z Sunday. NUTS! Thats 8-12 inches of powder at 27 degrees after 6-12 of wet at 31-32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I endorse Albany's warning upgrade. Also like that my p/c has 8-12" for Saturday night. Locked and loaded. ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES FOR VALLEY AREAS OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...CONNECTICUT VALLEY OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND VALLEYS AREAS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FEET WITH LOCALLY UP TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS Do you feel that the Monadnocks are in a prime spot for this storm, Will? I notice we're over 1" QPF on the 18z NAM, but it seems as if we might not get quite as much as the NW CT hills and the Berkshires. Do you think the heavy banding will make it this far north as the NAM shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 thats awesome, good thermal indicator inside 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 just started the tractor for the first time since last winter to make sure it would start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Back home in Kingston, I know most of the storm will be wet and windy for me, but any chance of snow towards the end for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even if the snow turns powdery at in the 2nd half of the storm, it won't matter much because it will just stick to the wet snow already stuck on the trees. That's actually what Dec 1992 did here..the 2nd half of that storm was powder, but it had a sticky base to accumulate onto. Plus its only going to take about 3-6" of paste to get huge power outages...so that will likely be achieved before the snow turns drier if it ever does. Heh, great point actually.. I don't want to lose power for any reason. The novelty of being able to say you experience x,y,z storm runs out in about 34 seconds standing in the dark. It's like the icestorm crew - not sure what is a matter with heads when it comes to wishing on that kind of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 someone in the hills is going to get 2ft out of this!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has a Dec 2005-esque commahead go over E MA at the end...so even BOS might get nailed for a few hours there. It looks good, I just hope the NW nudges are done for the I95 dwellars. Euro is actually MORE snow for areas down here vs all previoius runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Do you feel that the Monadnocks are in a prime spot for this storm, Will? I notice we're over 1" QPF on the 18z NAM, but it seems as if we might not get quite as much as the NW CT hills and the Berkshires. Do you think the heavy banding will make it this far north as the NAM shows? If all else fails as you wonder about this, just remind yourself "I could still be in Dobbs Ferry, I could still be in Dobbs Ferry, I could still be in Dobb" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has a Dec 2005-esque commahead go over E MA at the end...so even BOS might get nailed for a few hours there. Yeah I mentioned that Dec '05 similarity yesterday - it seems written on the wall with this thing ...agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Do you feel that the Monadnocks are in a prime spot for this storm, Will? I notice we're over 1" QPF on the 18z NAM, but it seems as if we might not get quite as much as the NW CT hills and the Berkshires. Do you think the heavy banding will make it this far north as the NAM shows? Its impossible to say if you or the other areas will get more. Banding can be quirky...it tries to set up west early on, but as everything collapses toward the extreme deepening upper low, the banding will want to shift eastward with time...we probably won't know until right before the storm...all we can say is that someone in the interior will probably get lucky with the banding and really clean up....who that might be is anyone's guess at this point. Anywhere from monadnocks, to orh hills, to berkshires to litchfield hills is certainly a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Matt Noyes is real conservative for many areas...4" for HFTD...6 for ORH, most in berks (9-12) Todd Gutner (sp?) was suggesting up to 12" (or more) near ORH/hills on his radio WBZ thing And he hardly ever says things like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I love Twitter. What an awesome thing.. Get on it folks..It's such a great communication/following tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Heh, great point actually.. I don't want to lose power for any reason. The novelty of being able to say you experience x,y,z storm runs out in about 34 seconds standing in the dark. It's like the icestorm crew - not sure what is a matter with heads when it comes to wishing on that kind of crap. Tip/Will/any met...what are we talking about in terms of RN / SN line on the 18z nam verbatim? seems like it pushed west a bit relative to 12z again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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