stormtracker Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looks like we're toast Yup, models are moving back west. Maybe the GFS will have something for next week.....10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 So basically the GFS shows what the Euro had yesterday. And this morning's Euro shows what the GFS had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The GFS is like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. So many systems over the years have shown up on this model when other models have offered a different solution. To be honest I no longer consider dreaming of ANYTHING until the Euro begins to sniff it out too. No worries though guys it's only December 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The pattern looks pretty dreadful from now into the foreseeable future. It's time to seriously consider chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The 2010 Magic has run out folks. Back to normal DC winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The pattern looks pretty dreadful from now into the foreseeable future. It's time to seriously consider chasing. Go get that snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Go get that snow! Lake Effect Chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yup, models are moving back west. Maybe the GFS will have something for next week.....10 days away! Hmmm, Nam looks like a complete washout.... until hour 84. Is that a secondary low developing off the coast as the cold air sweeps in behind the prime? http://www.nco.ncep....am_slp_084s.gif I wish that thing went out to 90hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hmmm, Nam looks like a complete washout.... until hour 84. Is that a secondary low developing off the coast as the cold air sweeps in behind the prime? http://www.nco.ncep....am_slp_084s.gif I wish that thing went out to 90hrs... The DGEX model is basically the Nam extrapolated out past 84 hours from what I've heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ji's favorite model still gives him hope http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The pattern looks pretty dreadful from now into the foreseeable future. It's time to seriously consider chasing. You wouldnt have to go far, Garrett Co has a foot on the ground and thats what 3 hrs from you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 You wouldnt have to go far, Garrett Co has a foot on the ground and thats what 3 hrs from you? double that amount and you can get it done in 2:45 or quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 0z NAM looks a bit intriguing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 0z NAM looks a bit intriguing... Ice-encrusted cars Monday morning? Ideal conditions for people to need car lock de-icer. Some people will have windshield wipers stick frozen to the windshield. Maybe some black ice on the highways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 By mid month the PNA is forecast to be near neutral, the NAO is forecast to be near neutral, and the AO is forecast to be -5 to -6. I would be interested to see what other mets have to say about a pattern like that for this region. Seems to me that's a pattern that could be fairly favorable for snow in the last half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Do you guys think that east of the Allghenies, but still in the Blue Ridge there could be snow? To my untrained eye it looks like rain/sleet in the upper elevations but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Even Hawaii is getting snow before us.....up on the volcano. Tonight: Snow. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 27. Breezy, with a west wind between 18 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 By mid month the PNA is forecast to be near neutral, the NAO is forecast to be near neutral, and the AO is forecast to be -5 to -6. I would be interested to see what other mets have to say about a pattern like that for this region. Seems to me that's a pattern that could be fairly favorable for snow in the last half of the month. does seem favorable, just hope we can get the storms to occur during the neg AO. i think alot of it is timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Don't see anything new this morning. A mostly rain event for the I-95 MD-VA corridor, ending as a mix or light snow Sunday nite. Timing of cold air arrival is critical before moisture gets scoured out. Want snow? Go west, young man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 GFS had a pretty good 12Z run today. Obviously, the later our closed low phases with the PV, the better for us. The closed low was a bit more south on this run. Clown map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This was the 18z GFS clown map through 45 hrs (11 AM MONDAY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The 00z GFS for same time period... a 1-2" burst. NAM says what's snow. Wes may be right... but hopefully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 The 00z GFS for same time period... a 1-2" burst. NAM says what's snow. Wes may be right... but hopefully not Wes has been waffling about the chances of snow tonight as the models seem to be at odds. The one caveat is that the gfs likes snow with cold advection and often overdoes the light amounts. However, the vort is a pretty strong one on the GFS making it possible that we see some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 @ThisStorm ...I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 12z NAM dries out IAD West pretty fast and has basically very little precip at all for the rest of the day....at least 1/2 the precip as it gives DCA and BWI. My guess is that my area does not see any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 12z NAM dries out IAD West pretty fast and has basically very little precip at all for the rest of the day....at least 1/2 the precip as it gives DCA and BWI. My guess is that my area does not see any snow. 6Z GFS gives CHO over 3.5" of snow and NAM zip. While I'm tempted to go with NAM, the GFS has been pretty consistent in this. Would be quite the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 @ThisStorm ...I'll believe it when I see it. I could see flurries but more than that would be surpirsing and your skepticism is definitely warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I could see flurries but more than that would be surpirsing and your skepticism is definitely warranted. Those were my thoughts as well. I'm just surprised that this event warranted this much discussion, and to be honest I got tired of it about halfway through and it's pretty much down to "let's just see what happens" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 have to head out for a bit, so I don't have a lot of time to look at this more in depth to tell for sure, but I just took a quick look and meso analysis and it would appear as it the cold air is coming in fairly quickly over Western Virginia. Again, this is after a quick 30 second look, so I could be totally wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The most interesting thing about the weather so far today is how the temp has dropped in N MD from 50 this morning to current 42 while winds are still out of the S, SW. I do not rule out snow squalls well after midnight that could whiten the ground. Heck, the half inch I had on Friday did not melt off until afternoon yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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