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Joe Vanni

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    Odenton, MD

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  1. Joe Vanni

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Well it seems they rushed it. The research and forecasters I've found to be most accurate at long ranges have stayed with the same story. But that's like me saying how some on the AGW side was claiming ice free Arctic in 2012, 2013, 2014 and so on. It's not going to happen anytime soon; and yes I know how's it's trended since 1979, the beginning of the global warming period. Or how the Atlantic hurricanes were only going to get worse after 2005's record season. They misjudged, but they have misjudged more than just the reason for melting ice and hurricanes. I think the peak will happen during solar cycle 26/27 but it'll become much more obvious as we approach 25 that something has switched. I can see why you would point out how we have warmed despite s super weak cycle. But there is actually a legit lag and a point needed to cross to see the real effects on a longer-term. But as I said before, debating this will get us nowhere. People are going to have to start seeing effects at their own house before they realize something is up.
  2. Joe Vanni

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    See I'm not trying to say that we should continue pumping out Co2. My main worry is that our focus for the warming is on the wrong thing, and that because we're looking the wrong way, we'll miss when the other regime comes on (global cooling). I do agree that if we continued to warm and sea levels rose at a fast pace, it would be bad for many and change civilization. But I think that civilization will be affected negatively and many of that same outcomes you stated could happen, but not because of warmth; but cold. So that's why I can only say so much to people who disagree with me because we need to see the weather in the next few years and into cycle 25 first.
  3. Joe Vanni

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    It probably seems funny because the only side that gets play is AGW, and it's hard for anyone to fathom anything else but a never-ending warming world. We only have so many years with satellite data and official records. I think it's foolish for us to only look at Co2, and think that becuase that's going up, well our temperatures will continue to rise. Because not preparing for a colder world, will hurt our infrastructure and food supply. To me, a lot of it is common sense. I will say this, if we continue to warm with no turning back over the next decade, well I'll definitely have to shake up my view on things and go back to my older thoughts. But what I envision is this. We'll continue to become cloudier and wetter over the coming years. The jet stream will continue to amplify more and more as we approach solar cycle 25, with greater intrusions of colder air from tropospheric PVs. Our springs will continue to be delayed and winters will generally be 4 - 6 months long for many of us in the states.
  4. Joe Vanni

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    I don't think we are going to get anywhere debating this when we are at the end of the global warming period, so you get the see the warm results of the past 36 years. I'm not debating that we have had great warmth, but I question the validity of saying the warmth is fastest on record. We are going to have to wait a few years when people actually see the cooling begin and that it has lasting power. We've been spoiled with this warmth but that's coming to an end.
  5. Joe Vanni

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Of course it's the tilt of the earth, but what are we tilting toward/away from? What amazes me is that people actually think we can have a bigger impact than the actual source of our life on earth. The blazing star that has been heating our planet since the beginning of time. Can you imagine what would happen if there were palm trees on Greenland like there were millions of years ago? The folks believing that AGW is our sole cause of warming would eat it up. If you actually think TSI and sunspots have been proven to not have been one of the major causes, then your sources are clearly cooking something up. I'm not worried about changing any beliefs here as that will be taken care of as we approach and move through the 2020s and 2030s. The problem is people are being shoved all this "data" that we are the cause and what we have experienced is so unexpected and dangerous. I used to just listen to the news and be on the same understanding of human caused global warming. But when actually researching it and then using common sense, I realized there's a higher likelihood that what I thought before is wrong. Then when I found fo rcasters who actually had incredible regional predictions years in advance come true, that was enough for me. Co2 is at highest levels, won't dispute that. Since the Industrial Revolution, we have disrupted the nice relation between the two. But the temperatures have absolutely not followed that during the 20th century. And if you think we have warmed to the levels of the Co2 rise then that is wrong. There's been a nice general trend between the two, but it's Co2 that follows temperature on earth, not the other way around. What I do feel is that humans impact environmental conditions, like habitats and ecosystems. Pollution is a real problem, but to say we are impacting the global weather and causing the extremes is false. Some of the major reasons for our recent warming which will be ending shortly; especially in the mid-latitudes where everyone lives are: We are in an interglacial period coming out of the little ice age. And that literally ended right before records began. We are coming out of a general major spike in solar activity. I suggest looking into the state of our sea ice in the past. What we have been experiencing is natural, maybe it's crazy for us to witness but there's no way that 400 ppm of Co2 (0.0004%) is going to cause that, or massive floods and droughts. I'd also look at the behavior of the weather during the beginning of our last little ice ages and compare that to what we have been experiencing. It's no joke, a colder climate is way worse than a warmer one where we can enjoy farming at higher latitudes and cheaper food prices. I think it's hard to believe a lot of what I'm saying when coming off of a very warm 2015 and 2016. But for example, there's an astrometeorologist I've been reading since 2007, and his predictions have been incredible. Everything from the Texas drought that became the multi-year California drought, to the surprise winter of 2013-2014 (made 5 years in advance), then the double summer of 2015 that extended into Christmas. Really I just say to watch the next few years. The jet stream will continue to amplify and the air produced in the troughs will get colder. The grand minimum states of our sun historically produce major floods and cold storms, and then droughts for people stuck under the ridges. But I'm telling you that our crop failures are just beginning on a global level. Lastly it really sucks this has become such a political issue. You have folks who don't understand a thing about weather (not talking about you CaWx) but they will preach their party's general stance on the issue but have no reasons for why. I'm talking both conservatives and liberals. I feel like when one side just tries to shut down the other, there's a major problem. To be labeled as a "climate denier" is nuts. Maybe they should change it to human-caused climate denier. Scientific reality? You mean of scientists with your belief? Because there aremany scientists who will state it's the sun, not humans that are driving our climate.
  6. Joe Vanni

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Really? I think the state of the sun has a much bigger effect on our jet stream compared to any other factor. It's not a coincidence that our jet stream had generally been becoming more meridional as we are declining with our solar cycles and other activities with the sun. As we approach the grand solar minimum, our winters will be longer and we will have much shorter growing seasons. Just think of the power of the sun. It's the reason for our seasons. And when it quiets down, trust me, earth will react and do fairly quickly as we head towards cycle 25. Plus if you look back at some of our prior colder periods on earth, there's more ice further south than right at the pole. The earth needs a mechanism to force the colder air away from the poles. But that's not to say they won't still be cold. But the earth has just had its last hurrah for the global warming cycle we are now leaving. Watch the weather over the next few years.
  7. Joe Vanni

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

    I don't know how mny people read Theodore White's forecasts (Astromet is his common screen name on the web) but he's been saying for over a decade now that we are about to enter a serious global cooling period after our natural global warming cycle ends this year. Before people dismiss him, I know a lot have said that 2013-2014 was a surprise to everyone for the US's winter outcome, but I posted a screenshot of Theo'd forecast from 2009 claiming that 2013-2014 was a harsh winter for the US that he knew about for sometime. He said even though it was five winters away, it would serve warning as a hint of the type of winters to come. I've been reading his forecasts for 10 years now and it is pretty crazy how accurate his extremely long-term forecasts are for regional areas. And you can also find his forecasts for the extreme warmth we had in 2015 and 2016. He stated there would be an Indian Summer in 2015 that wouldn't make an appearance until January. I don't think it's a coincidence that we have been seeing some crazy blocks start forming in Arctic regions like Alaska and I suspect it'll get crazier sooner than people realize. When there's climate shifts, you start to mix in the weather of the coming climate, and there has been many recent outcomes of big cold and snow for people who are not used to it. I understand the warmth of 2015/2016 will continue to make headlines and right now our winter personally is sucking, but keep yours eyes open over the next few years as we head into the solar minimum and upcoming cycle 25.
  8. Joe Vanni

    Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

    6z Navgem actually gets decent snows back to the D.C. Metro area now, where 0z only flirted with light snow.
  9. Joe Vanni

    May 2016 Obs/Disco

    I know it may seem far fetched to a lot of folks, but you should Google: Theodore White global cooling 2017. I've read his material since 2008 and he's been fairly accurate with regional to global predictions; his enso calls are different compared to what everyone else uses but I tend to focus on some of his other calls. Like he predicted the cold/snowy US winter of 2013-2014 from years in advance. The drought in Texas that then shifted west to the west coast, he did multiple years in advance. And he said California still wouldn't get the drought relief this past winter that everyone said they would get due to the strong El Niño; he said they'll have to wait until 2019. Plus he predicted the super warm year of 2015 globally and said we would have a major Indian Summer that would extend through the fall and winter would get started late. Anyways I've been following him closely and he still says that 2017 will be the year of the shift to global cooling; starting mid-December 2017. But he said in the transition times, you'll still receive major heat, but you'll start to see more cold shots and the weather will battle out between extreme cold and heat. I'd say we've been seeing that the last few years. Also he said the jet stream will continue to become more meridional. I've definitely noticed that we've had some of the most extreme blocks set up in recent times. But just something to keep an eye on.
  10. Joe Vanni

    Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

    Tenman, Do you remember Saint Patrick's Day 2014? In the teens and had 11 inches of snow. That's pretty incredible.
  11. Joe Vanni

    January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3

    This takes you directly to the GFS. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area
  12. Joe Vanni

    January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Did the 12z EPS make any improvement in the Sunday storm compared to 00z?
  13. Joe Vanni

    Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

    I still think the +QBO will actually benefit us this winter in terms of a decent backend. With the still slightly active sun and the El Niño, we should have a decent shot at some good events and hopefully a biggie in February/March. A few years from now, let's hope for a -QBO El Niño as the sun winds down.
  14. Joe Vanni

    October Banter Thread

    It looks like BWI recorded a trace of snowfall in August http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf
  15. Joe Vanni

    May Banter Thread

    Hey has anyone been having problems accessing the forum the last few days?