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Joe Vanni

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About Joe Vanni

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  • Location:
    Odenton, MD
  1. I don't know how mny people read Theodore White's forecasts (Astromet is his common screen name on the web) but he's been saying for over a decade now that we are about to enter a serious global cooling period after our natural global warming cycle ends this year. Before people dismiss him, I know a lot have said that 2013-2014 was a surprise to everyone for the US's winter outcome, but I posted a screenshot of Theo'd forecast from 2009 claiming that 2013-2014 was a harsh winter for the US that he knew about for sometime. He said even though it was five winters away, it would serve warning as a hint of the type of winters to come. I've been reading his forecasts for 10 years now and it is pretty crazy how accurate his extremely long-term forecasts are for regional areas. And you can also find his forecasts for the extreme warmth we had in 2015 and 2016. He stated there would be an Indian Summer in 2015 that wouldn't make an appearance until January. I don't think it's a coincidence that we have been seeing some crazy blocks start forming in Arctic regions like Alaska and I suspect it'll get crazier sooner than people realize. When there's climate shifts, you start to mix in the weather of the coming climate, and there has been many recent outcomes of big cold and snow for people who are not used to it. I understand the warmth of 2015/2016 will continue to make headlines and right now our winter personally is sucking, but keep yours eyes open over the next few years as we head into the solar minimum and upcoming cycle 25.
  2. 6z Navgem actually gets decent snows back to the D.C. Metro area now, where 0z only flirted with light snow.
  3. I know it may seem far fetched to a lot of folks, but you should Google: Theodore White global cooling 2017. I've read his material since 2008 and he's been fairly accurate with regional to global predictions; his enso calls are different compared to what everyone else uses but I tend to focus on some of his other calls. Like he predicted the cold/snowy US winter of 2013-2014 from years in advance. The drought in Texas that then shifted west to the west coast, he did multiple years in advance. And he said California still wouldn't get the drought relief this past winter that everyone said they would get due to the strong El Niño; he said they'll have to wait until 2019. Plus he predicted the super warm year of 2015 globally and said we would have a major Indian Summer that would extend through the fall and winter would get started late. Anyways I've been following him closely and he still says that 2017 will be the year of the shift to global cooling; starting mid-December 2017. But he said in the transition times, you'll still receive major heat, but you'll start to see more cold shots and the weather will battle out between extreme cold and heat. I'd say we've been seeing that the last few years. Also he said the jet stream will continue to become more meridional. I've definitely noticed that we've had some of the most extreme blocks set up in recent times. But just something to keep an eye on.
  4. Tenman, Do you remember Saint Patrick's Day 2014? In the teens and had 11 inches of snow. That's pretty incredible.
  5. This takes you directly to the GFS. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area
  6. I still think the +QBO will actually benefit us this winter in terms of a decent backend. With the still slightly active sun and the El Niño, we should have a decent shot at some good events and hopefully a biggie in February/March. A few years from now, let's hope for a -QBO El Niño as the sun winds down.
  7. It looks like BWI recorded a trace of snowfall in August http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf
  8. Hey has anyone been having problems accessing the forum the last few days?
  9. In New Market, MD and it was just snowing!
  10. I'm with you. Now if the sun can come out, even for just a bit, that will make a difference.
  11. About 6.25 to 6.5 inches in western Upper Marlboro, MD right off the beltway
  12. The 00z GGEM also looks like the older GFS runs. Easily the best run of the GGEM so far for the Wednesday night/Thursday event.
  13. With regards to the GGEM, you can see sporadic panels in hours 156, 180 and 198 and 228 on Tropical Tidbits. From looking at it, it seems that it misses the waves and we don't get too much; if anything at all. But I can't say for sure about the clipper mid week.
  14. UKmet and JMA have increased the amounts for Wednesday by a little bit; we'll see if it means anything. Nothing substantial, but maybe enough to backup a dusting or maybe a bit more? Euro should show itself in 30 min.