tamarack Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think those squirrels know what the chef is cooking. Definitely a snow sky now. Sitting here and noticing lots of oaks with their leaves. Should the 10" come to fruition, it will be as bad as the 2008 ice storm for this area. Even 5" will be problematic. Worst damage I saw from 1998 was just west of AUG and north/NW of LEW, places with the average tree losing 60% of it's crown, and many losing 100%. Oak-rich forest in York/Cumberland along with coastal areas may wind up with even more destruction than that. Fortunately for my agency, 98% of our managed landbase is in areas with 85-100% leaf drop, but we have tracts in Kennebunk, Topsham, Newcastle, Northport, and right around the GYX WSO that are oak-ey and very vulnerable. If there's any glimmer of light in this picture, it's that all the damage is likely to occur in an 8-12 hr period, rather than the 3-day marathon in 1998, where things kept re-breaking soon after repairs as the ice continued to accrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The irony of this whole thing is, We may not see another storm with these dynamics all winter, Although i hope am totally wrong... Maybe not, but it's a long winter and we'll have our share of fun. I'm more concerned going another four or five weeks and not having much to track like last year. We're being spoiled pretty rotten. I was going to test drive cars today, but that can wait - something like this is, as GYX said, historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 If there's any glimmer of light in this picture, it's that all the damage is likely to occur in an 8-12 hr period, rather than the 3-day marathon in 1998, where things kept re-breaking soon after repairs as the ice continued to accrete. I wasn't here for the '98 ice storm (though I've heard stories), so I couldn't use that as a benchmark. The next 24 hours are going to be interesting, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The irony of this whole thing is, We may not see another storm with these dynamics all winter, Although i hope am totally wrong... That may be the case since SSTs won't be close to this offshore come DJF. These 2 systems are essentially bonus snow for the seasonal total. It's like starting mid November at 10" instead of 0". The only bummer is that by late week it will all be just a memory, and we'll probably get weeks of bare ground again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You Maine folk are gonna get nailed. Especially southern and eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You Maine folk are gonna get nailed. Especially southern and eastern. Nothing but the sound of generators and chainsaws tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Worst damage I saw from 1998 was just west of AUG and north/NW of LEW, places with the average tree losing 60% of it's crown, and many losing 100%. Oak-rich forest in York/Cumberland along with coastal areas may wind up with even more destruction than that. Fortunately for my agency, 98% of our managed landbase is in areas with 85-100% leaf drop, but we have tracts in Kennebunk, Topsham, Newcastle, Northport, and right around the GYX WSO that are oak-ey and very vulnerable. If there's any glimmer of light in this picture, it's that all the damage is likely to occur in an 8-12 hr period, rather than the 3-day marathon in 1998, where things kept re-breaking soon after repairs as the ice continued to accrete. 98 was something. I was home in Brunswick that Feb. Nothing like going to sleep night after night to the sounds of snapping pines and blowing transformers. friends in Raymond didn't have power for 2 weeks. Pulling for you guys its nothing close, hang onto your hats Maniacs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Allenson - a six pack and laps in the driveway to pack it down vs. plow? Yeah, I don't know if I'll plow or not. Probably not but it's not a bad idea to be ready just in case. Sixer either way though! I find beer helpful when mid-winter plowing--gives me a little extra courage when ramming banks back. As for the 98 ice storm--I was living in York, ME back then. The 32F line waffled back and forth over us for those few days. We'd get ice accumulation for a while but then it would jump up to 34F or so and the dripping began only to go back <32 some time later. Never did build up the ice where I was like they did just a few extra miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 37.9 started as snow, no mix. 500' el 3/4mi vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 37.9 started as snow, no mix. 500' el 3/4mi vis nice.. still hasn't started here yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I wish it would start already....I've been helping a local farmer pick apples all day so he doesn't lose trees. How have the models trended for us more northern folks? oops just started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I wish it would start already....I've been helping a local farmer pick apples all day so he doesn't lose trees. How have the models trended for us more northern folks? oops just started! I haven't looked at any models, but messenger has been preaching a SE shift. Dunno how that impacts you or I. I suspect not much. I, too, have been patiently waiting - it's right on the doorstep it would seem. Always difficult to be patient when SNE has been getting ripped for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I haven't looked at any models, but messenger has been preaching a SE shift. Dunno how that impacts you or I. I suspect not much. I, too, have been patiently waiting - it's right on the doorstep it would seem. Always difficult to be patient when SNE has been getting ripped for hours. I would say positive signs that PSM is from 20 degrees and is 3/4SM -SN right now. They really only rained for a fraction of an hour before mixing, and that's right at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 around 3" here, trees sagging but no damage. roads covered except underneath those trees. took a precarious drive up to 1200' in Goffstown and there was an easy 4-5". much less at 200', around 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I haven't looked at any models, but messenger has been preaching a SE shift. Dunno how that impacts you or I. I suspect not much. I, too, have been patiently waiting - it's right on the doorstep it would seem. Always difficult to be patient when SNE has been getting ripped for hours. EC bumped up our QPF a bit to the NW...probably because the system is stronger.32.5F and snowing near moderate already after only about 20 minutes. The ground is getting rewhitened quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 EC bumped up our QPF a bit to the NW...probably because the system is stronger. 32.5F and snowing near moderate already after only about 20 minutes. The ground is getting rewhitened quickly. What was qpf in NNH, SW maine and NVT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Having a hard time making inroads here. I'm sensing a slight SE shift myself--you guys that direction should still make out well but I think we'll be looking at lower end totals here. BTV has cut us back from 8.9" to 5.4" from this morning till the latest afternoon updates... But then there's what dendrite posted.... We'll see, time'll tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Having a hard time making inroads here. I'm sensing a slight SE shift myself--you guys that direction should still make out well but I think we'll be looking at lower end totals here. BTV has cut us back from 8.9" to 5.4" from this morning till the latest afternoon updates... But then there's what dendrite posted.... We'll see, time'll tell. BTV progged us to start after 8pm...but yeah scary having to wait for snow when you know youre on the NW fringe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Having a hard time making inroads here. I'm sensing a slight SE shift myself--you guys that direction should still make out well but I think we'll be looking at lower end totals here. BTV has cut us back from 8.9" to 5.4" from this morning till the latest afternoon updates... But then there's what dendrite posted.... We'll see, time'll tell. Sounds about right. The EC is about 0.30-0.40" QPF in your neck of the woods and closer to 0.75" here. The 1" line makes up to somewhere between MHT/CON southwestward to EEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 29.8F light to moderate snow. Just spoke to a friend in Campton and snow started just 10 minutes ago so it took almost an hour to move 25 miles north. GFS cut QPF, I am barely over the .50" line. Glad I have gotton so cold, will not be a wet snow so my ratios are going to be better and will probably not loose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 First flakes our floating down now, temp at 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 First flakes our floating down now, temp at 33F. Just looked on the Dartmouth webcam--saw snow flying in Hanover... If it's snowing at your place in Orford, it can't be too far from here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Sounds about right. The EC is about 0.30-0.40" QPF in your neck of the woods and closer to 0.75" here. The 1" line makes up to somewhere between MHT/CON southwestward to EEN. Sounds good. I'll take my 4" and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just looked on the Dartmouth webcam--saw snow flying in Hanover... If it's snowing at your place in Orford, it can't be too far from here now. Yup I would think you will see it pretty soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nothing here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 5.5" stuff breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 snow has commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just started here -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snowing--comes in fast when it does. Boom, already sticking. Headed out to a Halloween party--luckily right up the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Gentle light snow, light snow 29.6F. No big deal. Has been snowing for 2 1/2 hours and just hit 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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