North Balti Zen Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Drizzly. Meh watch still in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Event total at 2.35". Looks to be another round coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Drizzly. Meh watch still in place. haha...i hope you weren't expecting anything exciting...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Drizzly. Meh watch still in place. 2+ days left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 1.22" at the nearby personal wx station so far from this event. Cloud cover really accentuates the shortening days. Absolutely. My street lights came on last night around 7 PM. I was surprised to see it so dark that early. Combined with the 60 degree temp, it made it feel like early Nov. Right now the temp is 59F. I'm used to it being around 80 already at this time of the day. It feels so good outside, especially since it was 94F on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 haha...i hope you weren't expecting anything exciting...? Anything less than 12 inches of pure blinding rain is a complete fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 2+ days left... I've never prematurely "meh'd" an event on this board before. Time to break the meh ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I've never prematurely "meh'd" an event on this board before. Time to break the meh ice. For the record... what are you expectations for it to be "not meh?" Less than 3 inches of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 For the record... what are you expectations for it to be "not meh?" Less than 3 inches of rain? personally I would be bummed with only 2 but 2 is better than none. My expectation is for a general 2-4" anyways so 2" would be low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I demand record flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 For the record... what are you expectations for it to be "not meh?" Less than 3 inches of rain? I guess in this set-up with the build-up, 3+ inches is a baseline. (I also am not exactly charged up about it either way...but the best rains sure look to be setting up back to the west or have since the moisture flow started...if I were in western MD and up into central PA, this is def not a "meh" event. Also, if your thoughts on potential severe weather tomorrow come to fruition...that would also de-"meh" this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I demand record flooding At a minimum. At the least, Bethesda in a kayak floating toward the mall using a shingle for a paddle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I demand record flooding good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdevil02 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Supposed to head to Strasburg's return tonight. Wasn't feeling good about getting the game in, but am I crazy or do the models seem pretty light on rain for the immediate DC area today and tonight? As for the whole storm, I wouldn't meh this thing. Got some nice heavy rain yesterday and last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 It really does feel like a mid-fall day out there. Pretty dreary. Supposed to head to Strasburg's return tonight. Wasn't feeling good about getting the game in, but am I crazy or do the models seem pretty light on rain for the immediate DC area today and tonight? As for the whole storm, I wouldn't meh this thing. Got some nice heavy rain yesterday and last night. Which is really the only thing people care about re: the Nationals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Supposed to head to Strasburg's return tonight. Wasn't feeling good about getting the game in, but am I crazy or do the models seem pretty light on rain for the immediate DC area today and tonight? As for the whole storm, I wouldn't meh this thing. Got some nice heavy rain yesterday and last night. I got rained out of a Nats game on April 16 and was going to use that ticket for tonight's game, but changed my mind when I looked at the consensus forecasts. However, I note that AccuWeather is now calling for only a 40% chance of rain 5-8 P.M. and a 51% chance 8-11 P.M. They foresee much more rain tomorrow than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I got rained out of a Nats game on April 16 and was going to use that ticket for tonight's game, but changed my mind when I looked at the consensus forecasts. However, I note that AccuWeather is now calling for only a 40% chance of rain 5-8 P.M. and a 51% chance 8-11 P.M. They foresee much more rain tomorrow than today. Steer clear of Accuweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Thought you might enjoy a close-up of the HPC qpf forecast for the next 72 hours and 120 hours starting 8am this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Steer clear of Accuweather Do you find them less accurate than other forecasting services? Speaking of which, has anyone ever attempted to do a comparative study of forecasting services, including the NWS and Weather.com? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Thought you might enjoy a close-up of the HPC qpf forecast for the next 72 hours and 120 hours starting 8am this morning. Awesome maps! Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Raining again after a lull through most of the morning. 2.35" for the event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Isolated TOR mention in HWO for S MD only today... E of BR for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Noon AFD update from LWX .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND WEST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS THAT COULD BECOME ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF LEE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY. AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD THE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SHEAR VECTOR PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY SHOWERS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. ANY SUNSHINE THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ANY T-STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 3.3" in my rain gague this morning (yesterday afternoon thru 5:30 am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Do you find them less accurate than other forecasting services? Speaking of which, has anyone ever attempted to do a comparative study of forecasting services, including the NWS and Weather.com? While not able to back it up empirically at the moment, I would take the NWS forecast over AccuWeather. Then I take my forecast and put it above both of them (as most forecasters do) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Flood Watch for Potomac Rvr at Little Falls, I'm drowning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Do you find them less accurate than other forecasting services? Speaking of which, has anyone ever attempted to do a comparative study of forecasting services, including the NWS and Weather.com? You have to realize that any forecasting outlet that forecasts out to 15 days is a bit suspicious. Plus, the vast majority of their forecast is computer generated with little to no human input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 You have to realize that any forecasting outlet that forecasts out to 15 days is a bit suspicious. Plus, the vast majority of their forecast is computer generated with little to no human input. I've tried a few comparisons between AccuWeather, NWS, and Weather.com, and haven't seen a lot to choose from. I will grant you that Accuweather's 15-day forecasts can be pretty funny, when on Day 1, they predict, say a high of 70 with a 10% chance of rain; and then on Day 2, revise that to a high of 60 with a 70% chance of rain. Still, a detailed study would be needed to do a proper comparison. When a service has a spectacular success or failure -- particularly with regard to snow -- that tends to be remembered, whereas less spectacular results tend to be quickly forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 You have to realize that any forecasting outlet that forecasts out to 15 days is a bit suspicious. Plus, the vast majority of their forecast is computer generated with little to no human input. Absolutely. The 10-15 day range changes with model runs pretty much verbatim at accuwx. I typically read the FD's, look at the zone, and fill in blanks with what I think will happen. Hard to go wrong when reading the NWS FD's and looking at your zone. The best part of the discussions is the analysis of the features when it is a low confidence forecast. It gives armchair guys like me a chance to make my own analysis and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Absolutely. The 10-15 day range changes with model runs pretty much verbatim at accuwx. I typically read the FD's, look at the zone, and fill in blanks with what I think will happen. Hard to go wrong when reading the NWS FD's and looking at your zone. The best part of the discussions is the analysis of the features when it is a low confidence forecast. It gives armchair guys like me a chance to make my own analysis and see what happens. No arguments here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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