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Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

This is more believable than that weird jog around NC that the other models have had, its overdone wind wise but track looks more like what I would expect given the setup.

those are the winds about 3000 ft above the surface so about 70-75% equation for a representation for what to expect on the surface. 100 kts at 3000 feet would equate to 75 kts surface

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

Hmmmmmmmmm me and Shaggy both live about under the N in Greenville so if it is going almost due north we would be in western eyewall.

Euro matches my first guess...to the T

just remember this windfield is huge and the sheer duration of the winds are going to be extraordinary long since this storm isn't going to be racing north.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Hmmmmmmmmm me and Shaggy both live about under the N in Greenville so if it is going almost due north we would be in western eyewall.

Latest position is 24.6/76.2. I'd really be on my P's &Q's down east, espeacilly with a Carterett County landfall depicted by the latest Euro run. If this verefies the entire OBX is gonna suffer massive erosion. Irene is still going through ERC. Once this completes itself latter today she should rev up pretty good.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

The 0Z Euro looks substantially west of yesterday's 12Z run to me. :o

The cut off line for people that get siginificant rain to those who get nothining will be short. Meaning somebody in the eastern part of a county could get three inches (or more) and somebody in the western part gets nothing. Now to figure out where that line sets up...

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 11:31Z

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 20

Observation Number: 13

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 11:11Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°18'N 76°30'W (25.3N 76.5W)

B. Center Fix Location: 55 miles (88 km) to the ENE (73°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 172° at 116kts (From the S at ~ 133.5mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.08 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,450m (8,038ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,442m (8,012ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest

M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)

M. Inner Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)

M. Outer Eye Diameter: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the east quadrant at 10:53Z

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

The cut off line for people that get siginificant rain to those who get nothining will be short. Meaning somebody in the eastern part of a county could get three inches (or more) and somebody in the western part gets nothing. Now to figure out where that line sets up...

NWS Raleigh was saying that this may not be the case with this storm as there is less dry air out west of the storm.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 76.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF NASSAU ABOUT 670 MI...1085 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

The cut off line for people that get siginificant rain to those who get nothining will be short. Meaning somebody in the eastern part of a county could get three inches (or more) and somebody in the western part gets nothing. Now to figure out where that line sets up...

That is true! I just hope it's west of me. :)

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Looks like the OBX is going to get slammed while the rest of NC is spared...for now. I am getting concerned now about the westerly movement by the models lately.

I would hardly say eastern NC getting a good 5 inches of rain in a short sustained period is getting "spared'. There is still the threat of flooding I would think in Eastern NC especially if you're close to the coast.

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Summey

Summey

Posted
Posted

I would hardly say eastern NC getting a good 5 inches of rain in a short sustained period is getting "spared'. There is still the threat of flooding I would think in Eastern NC especially if you're close to the coast.

There are an awful lot of crops still in the ground that are weeks from harvest.....would spell doom for those farmers.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I would hardly say eastern NC getting a good 5 inches of rain in a short sustained period is getting "spared'. There is still the threat of flooding I would think in Eastern NC especially if you're close to the coast.

I was talking more about the full force of the hurricane itself. But the flooding is going to be bad for east of 95. I just hope the westerly movement on the models stops. If it keeps it up today, then we will have a west trend.

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted

If the euro and now GFDL are right....ENC gets HAMMERED!!

Looks like the 06Z GFS came west again and more northerly on its heading also? If these tracks come close to being right and she is as big as forecasted then we still get strong TS force winds west to I-95 would be my bet.

What do the ensembles show?

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