Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,510
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Toothache
    Newest Member
    Toothache
    Joined

Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 985
  • Created
  • Last Reply
superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

0z GFS might have been the worst run for NYC proper yet, at least regarding the track. Irene never really makes a proper landfall in NC, just skirting the OBX and entering the Pamlico Sound, which would allow it to stay stronger than if it makes landfall around Morehead City. Nevertheless, NYC is on the northwest quadrant, which likely wouldn't be as severely impacted as the northeast quadrant.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ryan1234

ryan1234

Posted
Posted

ok, great post, thanks for the update, keep us abridged as to the latest!!!

You know, that was a response to Wildremann. I really don't think it required a smart*** response from you. It seems like every time someone mentions that this may not effect your backyard that much, you become quite the catty fellow. It's wishcasting at it's finest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

STFU, North Topsail, or should I return the check?

Got to get people out of the habit of model hugging and apparently wobble hugging. There is always going to be changes and one second its moving NW and people are like Oh noes were all gonna diiiieeeeee.....then it wobbles east a bit and everyone is like its gonna fish lol....

The zoomed in unenhanced or shortwave loop is awesome right now lots of dynamics going on in the eye its actually cloud covered some so the eye looks like its moving oddly but its really pretty much due north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

You know, that was a response to Wildremann. I really don't think it required a smart*** response from you. It seems like every time someone mentions that this may not effect your backyard that much, you become quite the catty fellow. It's wishcasting at it's finest.

LOL come on man you know Wildremann's MO right? He loves this stuff and the more chances he has to rain on someones parade the happier he is.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ryan1234

ryan1234

Posted
Posted

LOL come on man you know Wildremann's MO right? He loves this stuff and the more chances he has to rain on someones parade the happier he is.....

That may well be his MO. But it doesn't change the fact that he could possibly be right. Everyone keeps telling us not to hug the models. Well umm, we are almost a day away and the GFS says no to a NC landfall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

You know, that was a response to Wildremann. I really don't think it required a smart*** response from you. It seems like every time someone mentions that this may not effect your backyard that much, you become quite the catty fellow. It's wishcasting at it's finest.

Trust me when I say WeatherNC does not wishcast. Been on these weather boards w/ him a long time and never have I seen him wishcast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bozart

Bozart

Posted
Posted

Got to get people out of the habit of model hugging and apparently wobble hugging. There is always going to be changes and one second its moving NW and people are like Oh noes were all gonna diiiieeeeee.....then it wobbles east a bit and everyone is like its gonna fish lol....

The zoomed in unenhanced or shortwave loop is awesome right now lots of dynamics going on in the eye its actually cloud covered some so the eye looks like its moving oddly but its really pretty much due north.

I'm not hugging any model; I'm looking at real-time imagery and comparing it to the forecast track on my screen. So I looked at your zoomed-in shortwave loop, only I overlaid it with L/L and Trop Pts.

The storm is indeed moving north like you say -- I've known that for hours, just from radar -- only the forecast track says it wasn't supposed to be moving north, not yet. Irene has clearly wandered east of the forecast track, and it looks to me like more than a wobble. Or, put it this way: if that's a wobble it's a hell of a wobble. More like a swoon.

That forecast track was supposed to buy us another half-degree of longitude tonight. Doesn't look to me like we're going to get it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted

I'm not hugging any model; I'm looking at real-time imagery and comparing it to the forecast track on my screen. So I looked at your zoomed-in shortwave loop, only I overlaid it with L/L and Trop Pts.

The storm is indeed moving north like you say -- I've known that for hours, just from radar -- only the forecast track says it wasn't supposed to be moving north, not yet. Irene has clearly wandered east of the forecast track, and it looks to me like more than a wobble. Or, put it this way: if that's a wobble it's a hell of a wobble. More like a swoon.

That forecast track was supposed to buy us another half-degree of longitude tonight. Doesn't look to me like we're going to get it.

Main thing is you can't track the motion very well without a clearly defined eye, building convection and the eye becoming covered is resulting in illusions in movement although it has jogged north. What's to say it won't jog west for a few hours? Hurricanes do that all the time especially when undergoing strength and size changes as Irene is. It looks like it'll be extremely close to the NHC forecast and indications are its moving more NNW again per recon and radar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Main thing is you can't track the motion very well without a clearly defined eye, building convection and the eye becoming covered is resulting in illusions in movement although it has jogged north. What's to say it won't jog west for a few hours? Hurricanes do that all the time especially when undergoing strength and size changes as Irene is. It looks like it'll be extremely close to the NHC forecast and indications are its moving more NNW again per recon and radar.

He's been looking at the radar...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bozart

Bozart

Posted
Posted

Main thing is you can't track the motion very well without a clearly defined eye, building convection and the eye becoming covered is resulting in illusions in movement although it has jogged north.

You don't need satellite. The eye has been very clearly defined on radar for hours and hours and hours, and it still is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

I'm not hugging any model; I'm looking at real-time imagery and comparing it to the forecast track on my screen. So I looked at your zoomed-in shortwave loop, only I overlaid it with L/L and Trop Pts.

The storm is indeed moving north like you say -- I've known that for hours, just from radar -- only the forecast track says it wasn't supposed to be moving north, not yet. Irene has clearly wandered east of the forecast track, and it looks to me like more than a wobble. Or, put it this way: if that's a wobble it's a hell of a wobble. More like a swoon.

That forecast track was supposed to buy us another half-degree of longitude tonight. Doesn't look to me like we're going to get it.

Gotta look at the big picture so what if it misses the next plot to the east? The next plot after that is almost due north of where it is right now and they almost never go right over the plot points anyways. Look I am in no way implying this thing cant or wont end up over the OBX, cause it can EASILY however I tendto view these little changes back and forth as having less overall impact to the general track of the storm. Last night it was well SW of most of the plot points but it still ended up in the same general area of the NE Bahamas that the models had forecasted it to be in. A north moving hurricane is going to move NE then NW etc for the most part since strong systems like this almost never move in a straight line. I would be surprised if this thing isnt darn close to the next plot point.

If the thing was moving due east or even ENE for 5-6 hrs then we would be seeing something unexpected but so far this thing is at best 20 miles right of track.......

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dunkman

Dunkman

Posted
Posted

Comparing the 0z GFS and the 0z Euro at the first landfall in NC, the GFS is 6 hours faster to landfall, and about 15 miles east. The Euro is ever so slightly east of Cape Lookout at 42h, and the GFS make landfall directly on Ocracoke at 39h.

One thing I'll add is the pressure keeps dropping but the max winds are staying the same. However, the wind radii are almost constantly expanding and this is going to bring rough conditions to a large area of the NC coast, much more than most hurricanes that make landfall on the Outer Banks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bozart

Bozart

Posted
Posted

Comparing the 0z GFS and the 0z Euro at the first landfall in NC, the GFS is 6 hours faster to landfall, and about 15 miles east. The Euro is ever so slightly east of Cape Lookout at 42h, and the GFS make landfall directly on Ocracoke at 39h.

One thing I'll add is the pressure keeps dropping but the max winds are staying the same. However, the wind radii are almost constantly expanding and this is going to bring rough conditions to a large area of the NC coast, much more than most hurricanes that make landfall on the Outer Banks.

If it's true it's a dreaded run for the Outer Banks -- a Pamlico Sound shredder. Just about a worst-case scenario for Ocracoke Island and all of the OBX -- the kind of storm that can change the geography. The storm takes its sweet time, too, moving at only about 15 mph. Euro paints 924 mb at landfall, although I have heard the Euro over-does low pressure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

The 2:00 AM position was 77.2 W, and according to the NHC forecast track, that's as far West as Irene is supposed to get now, so their track has shifted .8° to the East since last night's package. Recon should have new obs before the 8:00 advisory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...