Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[Jon]

I still don't understand why some people are still holding on hope that Irene is somehow going to totally go against what every models is saying. It's not like we have a couple models pointing to a westward track. Every model is in a general consensus with Irene effecting mostly the OBX of NC. Even that could be a stretch given current steering.

I think people are only holding hope for a OBX landfall, I doubt anyone is really banking on this thing to start turning west inland...if it did, it would baffle most and what models could we really rely on for the next major? This thing is definitely going east, it's a matter of how far east.

[Brick Tamland]

Seems like the local media is still hyping it up like it could turn west and we all better watch out. Sounds like just hype to me.

[Stormsfury]

12z GFS through 42 hours is a drastic shift SW from 06z at 48

old

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_048s.gif

new

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_042s.gif

[Jon]

Seems like the local media is still hyping it up like it could turn west and we all better watch out. Sounds like just hype to me.

hypeeeee no model basis.

Although the 12z GFS looks a tad further west...

[packbacker]

Interesting on the GFS, at hour 64 it's SW of 0z and 6z run. At 30N it's a 77.9W, not quite 78, but very close. 6z GFS was at 31N and 77W at same time. This could close to the OBX.

Maybe it's just slower, that's probably why it appears SW.

[Stormsfury]

just caution through 54 hours, 12z GFS is a bit further SW and W, but it might not necessarily be a start of a trend, just that's it's starting to hone in on a point.

[eyewall]

My updated discussion:

http://www.sandhillswx.com/

[downeastnc]

Exactly. It's time to stick a fork in Irene, for NC of course. Maybe next time around will prove to be a bit more interesting. The wave off the Africa coast looks really interesting.

Kinda premature huh? I live 60-70 miles from the coast I think I will wait a bit before sticking a fork in Irene.

[burgertime]

Well the GFS certainly spells major flooding for the NE...hopefully it skirts by pretty much everyone. If the GFS is right today NYC might be sunk.

[NCSNOW]

Current steering. Irene is really getting juiced up looking at the recon data. Should easily make it to cat 4 over the next 12 or so hours and IMO could push the cat 5 stage briefly. Tell you what folks as much I love and get caught up in Hurricane history and weather its probably a good thing some miniscule trof is gonna save our(SE) butts from what would have been a possible historical (ie Hugo/Hazel) blow. Im still concerened for the OBX, hopefully they stay on the left side of Irene

[WeatherNC]

Kinda premature huh? I live 60-70 miles from the coast I think I will wait a bit before sticking a fork in Irene.

Yeah, me too... Got to love the dude's optimism though, this should be easier after last Winter, when everyone else is like cancel, were game on (just joking, had to poke at the triangle screw zone).

[packbacker]

Yeah, me too... Got to love the dude's optimism though, this should be easier after last Winter, when everyone else is like cancel, were game on (just joking, had to poke at the triangle screw zone).

Not sure we are screwed, we should be opposite of screwed :-).

But in all seriousness the 12z GFS passes the OBX at 75W 35N, of course if it passes at 76W, it's going to be a lot different OBX come Sunday. So that is a 30 mile shift west, not very much. But, if it's shifts 30 miles east, it will just be great surfing day at the OBX.

[WeatherNC]

Not sure we are screwed, we should be opposite of screwed :-).

But in all seriousness the 12z GFS passes the OBX at 75W 35N, of course if it passes at 76W, it's going to be a lot different OBX come Sunday. So that is a 30 mile shift west, not very much. But, if it's shifts 30 miles east, it will just be great surfing day at the OBX.

oK

...not sure where it goes from here, but 12z GGEM is wide left through 30N 78W at 60 hrs... SC says what?

[downeastnc]

Yeah, me too... Got to love the dude's optimism though, this should be easier after last Winter, when everyone else is like cancel, were game on (just joking, had to poke at the triangle screw zone).

Things folks tend to over look is the track is always a adjustment from the last track and usually move 20-30 miles at least, the GFS stopped going east and bumped west a bit mostly due to it running a weaker trough in Canada and a stronger ridge off the coast. The GFS in the mid range is known to underdo ridges so as we get closer to the event the GFS will start to pump it up which means it will more likely shift WEST than east as we get closer to the actual event if it has indeed underdone the ridge. IF it bumps 10-30 miles west every run between now and Sat we are gonna be talking landfall Onslow Bay with a Cat 3-4. that puts everyone east of I95 and maybe even the triangle in hurricane conditions but it amazes me at the number of people ready to write this thing off.......of course it could end up 100 miles east of Hat but if it does go west

[ryan1234]

Kinda premature huh? I live 60-70 miles from the coast I think I will wait a bit before sticking a fork in Irene.

No not really. Its a but inmature to want a hurricane or tropical storm to effect your backyard so bad that you ignore every model and some how think that by saying this storm is going to make a big enough jog west to effect you in Greenville. Or Wilmington. Its just not happening.

[downeastnc]

No not really. Its a but inmature to want a hurricane or tropical storm to effect your backyard so bad that you ignore every model and some how think that by saying this storm is going to make a big enough jog west to effect you in Greenville. Or Wilmington. Its just not happening.

LOL all I can say is watch the trend and learn to not hug the models so much......

[WeatherNC]

Things folks tend to over look is the track is always a adjustment from the last track and usually move 20-30 miles at least, the GFS stopped going east and bumped west a bit mostly due to it running a weaker trough in Canada and a stronger ridge off the coast. The GFS in the mid range is known to underdo ridges so as we get closer to the event the GFS will start to pump it up which means it will more likely shift WEST than east as we get closer to the actual event if it has indeed underdone the ridge. IF it bumps 10-30 miles west every run between now and Sat we are gonna be talking landfall Onslow Bay with a Cat 3-4. that puts everyone east of I95 and maybe even the triangle in hurricane conditions but it amazes me at the number of people ready to write this thing off.......of course it could end up 100 miles east of Hat but if it does go west

Yep, and some seen unfamiliar with what a 100 mile miss (graze) can do in terms of a large TC. Floyd passed about 125 miles to my east while I lived in FL, yet we still had a good 4 hour period overnight with turquoise fireworks, an no power for 3 days. Granted I was about 12 miles inland, but some people really underestimate even what a glancing blow, 50-70 miles west of the exact center can do. If this is as large as some of the guidance suggest, your going to have a 20-30 mile wide eye, and a band outside of that by about 30 miles that will be putting the hammer down, so within 50-70 miles of the point center needs to be prepared, or end the DA with stuff flying around the neighborhood and caught with a WTF. Better to be ready than not when dealing with storms like this. Walmart and SAMs are zoos, just got back.

[ryan1234]

LOL all I can say is watch the trend and learn to not hug the models so much......

If my last post came across as rude I didn't mean for it to. It's just that when ALL the models are so tight and pointing to east, east, east, I find it extremely difficult to find a way to argue with the models. Like I said before if the storm was barreling towards you, you would have no disagreement once so ever.

[WeatherNC]

No not really. Its a but inmature to want a hurricane or tropical storm to effect your backyard so bad that you ignore every model and some how think that by saying this storm is going to make a big enough jog west to effect you in Greenville. Or Wilmington. Its just not happening.

Cone young grasshopper, not the track, but the cone. Consensus 3.5 days out is usually off believe it or not, especially when you take past bias into account, which is one of e reasons the NHC has been left of cluster. Your posts are wrong, if they had any credibility, we could just lock in a static plot at 3 days out and say it is going to happen this way, nothing will change. Obviously this is your first Rodeo, dust yourself off, and get back on... Hell, it ain't even Winter yet, rest the bull.

[FallsLake]

To add to the conversation, we need to be careful following the models too closely. As this storm intensifies it may be able to push its direction outside the current model projections. Things to look for -- is the storm turning NW to North at the time the models projected, etc.?

[NCStateMMY]

I seem to remember that Fran and Floyd were suppossed to barrel into Charleston 24 hours before they hit Cape Fear.

[Stormsfury]

I seem to remember that Fran and Floyd were suppossed to barrel into Charleston 24 hours before they hit Cape Fear.

The EURO nailed the sharp turn on Floyd 7 days out.

[downeastnc]

If my last post came across as rude I didn't mean for it to. It's just that when ALL the models are so tight and pointing to east, east, east, I find it extremely difficult to find a way to argue with the models. Like I said before if the storm was barreling towards you, you would have no disagreement once so ever.

No its cool, its just that models always shift a little bit every run and it isnt going to take muchto get this 75 miles west and that would flatten most of eastern NC. All it takes if for the storm to go slower than modeled, or further west than modeled or the trough to be weaker or the ridge to be stronger etc.....the latest runs saw most models bump west a bit if it is the start of a trend and models bump west 10-20 miles every run till Sat everyone east of Raleigh is in trouble.

I am in no way saying its going to hit inland all I am saying is its WAY WAY to early to write it off...

[packbacker]

To add fuel to the fire, this was Katrina's projected path, roughly 84 hours out, which is about the same time frame where Irene is currently from NC coast. The cone is not even encompassing where it eventually struck.....

Katrina 84 hours out

[superjames1992]

I don't know why people are giving up and throwing in the towel. The OBX and immediate NC coast will probably be hit pretty hard, even if Irene just skirts the OBX. Sure, maybe us in Raleigh won't get much action, but it still will be a big deal further east. In addition, things are looking more interesting for the NE now.

Also, this isn't an exact science. The forecast could easily be blown by 50 miles which could make all the difference in the world.

[Bozart]

I don't know why people are giving up and throwing in the towel. The OBX and immediate NC coast will probably be hit pretty hard, even if Irene just skirts the OBX. Sure, maybe us in Raleigh won't get much action, but it still will be a big deal further east. In addition, things are looking more interesting for the NE now.

Also, this isn't an exact science. The forecast could easily be blown by 50 miles which could make all the difference in the world.

If the eastward trend in the model runs has truly halted, that would seem to put possible future westward corrections very much back on the table. Just the fact that we're so close to having a major impact in inland eastern NC, with models now bobbling around a "consensus," tells me to keep eyes wide open.

[RevDodd]

Does anyone pay heed to the NOGAPS? Seems it's been bantered about as a joke in storms past. But its 12Z run was a bit west from the southern Bahamas on up, probably from a stronger W./ Atlantic ridge. Perhaps it show less erosion from the troughs?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011082412∏=prpτ=018&set=All

[packfan98]

Well, there seems to be a small cluster of models (gfs, gem and NoGaps) that have been west of their previous runs. I know that the ridge in the Atlantic was stronger on the GFS which slowed it down and made it go west a little. I'm not sure if this is a trend, but it's definitely something to watch for later. The closer this system gets to hugging the Florida coast the more worried I become. 30-50 miles west before turning due north will literally have a major impact on millions of people up and down the east coast. I really don't think anyone should be breathing a sigh of relief until the system has passed them by. Even if the models are correct on upper air patterns and track, if the hurricane re-establiblished its eyewall at the right time the hurricane can jump 30 miles west as it's reforming. Be ready for anything! CAUTION!!

Does anyone pay heed to the NOGAPS? Seems it's been bantered about as a joke in storms past. But its 12Z run was a bit west from the southern Bahamas on up, probably from a stronger W./ Atlantic ridge. Perhaps it show less erosion from the troughs?

https://www.fnmoc.na...tau=018&set=All

[ryan1234]

oK

...not sure where it goes from here, but 12z GGEM is wide left through 30N 78W at 60 hrs... SC says what?

SC says what? Try both the Carolina's. lol. I have heard stories about how Hugo wasn't supposed to hit Charleston. Then again that was 1989. But still.

[AJF0602]

Just wondering what is the spin off of the Carolina coast (You can clearly see it on WV) and how could that impact Irene?