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Its cold enough when do we snow?


Ginx snewx

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I thought they looked ok...the west based -NAO looks to be decaying and the PAC is less hostile (though still not ideal)...it should give us chances. I mean, its all we can ask for at this point. We will have been in a decent longer wave pattern for the most part since Dec 4-5 by the time we get to mid month I think. Its too bad some permutations in the field are going against us at the moment (as they have for quite a while now), but if we keep that general look that the ensembles have, we'll have something break our way.

Man total loss of cross-polar flow on the ECM OP after the coming system. Almost no low heights left in Canada at all as the arctic air once again shifts towards Europe and the Atlantic Arctic.

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Correct....December normal to slightly below snowfall.....March one for lore......

I do not expect a shutout this month, however I think it will be a pretty forgettable month as far as snow goes.

Normal for me is not that much for December. I'll take a normal or below normal snowfall for December, if that means we have winter that actually lasts through March for once. It's getting awfully tiresome of winter ending around Valentine's Day.

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Man total loss of cross-polar flow on the ECM OP after the coming system. Almost no low heights left in Canada at all as the arctic air once again shifts towards Europe and the Atlantic Arctic.

Not much on the ensembles either, but if the GOA low does weaken along with the insane nao block, that could change later this month.

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Not much on the ensembles either, but if the GOA low does weaken along with the insane nao block, that could change later this month.

Christ, these insane NAO blocks.....it's like having your pitching staff throwing 4 consecutive no-hitters in a row, yet you lose them all do to a unique and well timed intertwining of walks, errors, balks, wild pitches and passed balls that we meteorologists\ meteorology enthusiasts refer to as "perturbations" and "cosmic dildos".....

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I've never seen a calendar year when something good could sharpen the steel dildo and ram it in...good lord!

by winter month:

Jan:

NYD: Too much blocking but a lucky pull.

Feb

PV suppresses historic DC-PHL blizzard

Marine puke gives us driving rain while NYC gets 20 inches.

December:

Too much blocking kills the chance of a good coastal (this week).

PV phasing with system in the southern states amplifies up my left inner hemorrhoid because NAO is too far east. Archambault.....for Cleveland

future: NAO too strong and snow is whisked around us.

All of these things can typically work well for us so we're on the schneid....our luck will change but this is so crazy I almost root for it...it is so unique.

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B OX finally updated long term AFD after having the same one up for 2 full days some of those folks there need to pull their heads out.

Some potential still..provided the Euro is wrong

SHORT WAVE TROF AND OVERRUNNING PATTERN COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO

OF SNOW LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE MOST NOTABLE EVENT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE SUN INTO

MON WHEN REGION IS IMPACTED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF. LOOKS LIKE AN

INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE

COULD BE A PERIOD OF SNOW AND ICE TO START IN THE INTERIOR

DEPENDING UPON TO WHAT EXTENT COLD AIR HOLDS IN PLACE.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF

GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH AT LEAST FAIR

MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY...12Z UKMET DEPICTS A FURTHER EAST

SOLUTION AND LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE TREND IS TO SHOW A FEW MORE

MEMBERS JUST OFF THE COAST.

TRIED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ACROSS REGION WITH TIMING BUT THINK WE

MAY BE A LITTLE FAST WITH THE ONSET ON SUN. OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW

STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND DEPENDING UPON ULTIMATE TRACK OF

SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILE...MAY REACH WIND

ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT OVER SE ZONES.

TEMPERATURES COULD WARM CONSIDERABLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS SUN

NIGHT AND MON IF WE DO SEE AN INSIDE RUNNER. HOWEVER...COULD END

UP BEING MUCH TOO WARM IF A FURTHER EAST SOLUTION IS REALIZED.

COLD AIR RETURNS WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

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I've never seen a calendar year when something good could sharpen the steel dildo and ram it in...good lord!

by winter month:

Jan:

NYD: Too much blocking but a lucky pull.

Feb

PV suppresses historic DC-PHL blizzard

Marine puke gives us driving rain while NYC gets 20 inches.

December:

Too much blocking kills the chance of a good coastal (this week).

PV phasing with system in the southern states amplifies up my left inner hemorrhoid because NAO is too far east. Archambault.....for Cleveland

future: NAO too strong and snow is whisked around us.

All of these things can typically work well for us so we're on the schneid....our luck will change but this is so crazy I almost root for it...it is so unique.

You forgot Dec 11-14, 1992 + .1* C in March

You also forgot the 2nd, larger blizzard that we missed in Feb and the HECS that buried Logan 11.

You also forgot too LITTLE blocking can't retrograde the ME MECS over to us this Decemeber.

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You forgot Dec 11-14, 1992 + .1* C in March

You also forgot the 2nd, larger blizzard that we missed in Feb and the HECS that buried Logan 11.

You also forgot too LITTLE blocking can't retrograde the ME MECS over to us this Decemeber.

Disaster. Gotta say I'm a little concerned about a Nina that is perking back up and getting screwed when we should have been cashing in.

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You forgot Dec 11-14, 1992 + .1* C in March

You also forgot the 2nd, larger blizzard that we missed in Feb and the HECS that buried Logan 11.

You also forgot too LITTLE blocking can't retrograde the ME MECS over to us this Decemeber.

1992 was a great winter so that's fine.

The last point on too LITTLE blocking is because too MUCH blocking got it to do a wide right on us.

I'm reminded of a Bruins game I went to about 30 years ago. This guy behind me kept yelling...MY AZZHOLE HURTS...MY AZZHOLE HURTS....

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1992 was a great winter so that's fine.

The last point on too LITTLE blocking is because too MUCH blocking got it to do a wide right on us.

I'm reminded of a Bruins game I went to about 30 years ago. This guy behind me kept yelling...MY AZZHOLE HURTS...MY AZZHOLE HURTS....

No he is referring to the imitation of Dec 1992 in March last year where most of the region was about 1C in the mid-levels.

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1992 was a great winter so that's fine.

The last point on too LITTLE blocking is because too MUCH blocking got it to do a wide right on us.

I'm reminded of a Bruins game I went to about 30 years ago. This guy behind me kept yelling...MY AZZHOLE HURTS...MY AZZHOLE HURTS....

Jer he is calling the last week of Feb storm the 92 almost. Same setup only 1 degree too warm region wide entire column too.

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1992 was a great winter so that's fine.

The last point on too LITTLE blocking is because too MUCH blocking got it to do a wide right on us.

I'm reminded of a Bruins game I went to about 30 years ago. This guy behind me kept yelling...MY AZZHOLE HURTS...MY AZZHOLE HURTS....

I know.....I was just expounding on your point regarding too much blocking....the blocking could have been weaker OR stronger and we would have made out all right. lol

That wasn't fine....that Dec 1992 storm was epic, but this March it was like 1*c warmer so it was all rain this time. lol

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The 100 mile trend east is not surprising. GFS has been back and forth all day. Prolly go back next run.

Still a ways out and I think we might not have a solid solution until Friday. In any case, I'm thiking it's either going to be 100 miles west of current track, or 100 miles east. Of course this is my uneducated (based on dumb experience only) guess. :D

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