ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Man, the Euro just puts the clipper into a meat grinder as it heads east...we may end up with just a few flurries at that rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Man, the Euro just puts the clipper into a meat grinder as it heads east...we may end up with just a few flurries at that rate. I was just going to comment what clipper on the euro.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 which is substantially east of the 00z guidance I believe ... I tell you what, Will - some factorizaiton in this will come from the ambient heights over the deep SE; I have heavily discussed this in the past, and it has to do with flow compressibility in that region. For the general reader: when the balanced flow is too strong in that region than S/W amplitude gets muted because the S/W wind max is not sufficiently stronger than the surrounding medium as it passes through enough to excite restoring vectors (WAA/CAA ...etc). That negatively feeds back on a system's ability to dig because there is less thermodynamic downward processing of the heights in the trough axis. It's complicated - that's the simplest way I can put it. I have identified in the past that the near critical threshold is ~582dm over MIA and/or wind velocities exceeding ~40kts at the 500mb as a general rule of thumb. Height higher than that and/or velocities over 50 kts as a S/W is approaching the MV will mute said S/W to some degree depending on how compressed the flow is. Less heights and lower velocities means less compression, more means more compression. Did you mean "less heights and lower velocities mean MORE compression ... etc" ? Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 We reeeally need that clipper to dig more and exit at a lower latitude ... would help us out two fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Euro is having none of the eastern trend. Cuts the low west of detroit and into Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Euro is having none of the eastern trend. Cuts the low west of detroit and into Lake Huron. Our worst fears realized. No snow Friday or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z NOGAPS looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 this should be a fun 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Our worst fears realized. No snow Friday or Sunday. Yeah the Euro is a double whammy...it really grinds up the clipper and then winds up the 2nd system well west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 this runs seems a bit extreme, actually leaves nobody happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Look on the bright side--it might be an easier decision to go to sleep rather than stay up for the models for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 which is substantially east of the 00z guidance I believe ... I tell you what, Will - some factorizaiton in this will come from the ambient heights over the deep SE; I have heavily discussed this in the past, and it has to do with flow compressibility in that region. For the general reader: when the balanced flow is too strong in that region than S/W amplitude gets muted because the S/W wind max is not sufficiently stronger than the surrounding medium as it passes through enough to excite restoring vectors (WAA/CAA ...etc). That negatively feeds back on a system's ability to dig because there is less thermodynamic downward processing of the heights in the trough axis. It's complicated - that's the simplest way I can put it. I have identified in the past that the near critical threshold is ~582dm over MIA and/or wind velocities exceeding ~40kts at the 500mb as a general rule of thumb. Height higher than that and/or velocities over 50 kts as a S/W is approaching the MV will mute said S/W to some degree depending on how compressed the flow is. Less heights and lower velocities means less compression, more means more compression. Having said that, here we have balanced flow at 96 hours from 12z this morning on the order of 30 to 35kts, and heights lower than 582dm. This is a positive feedback on a system's ability to dig if you've followed this brief outline, as it comes east of the Mississippi Valley. I am also a bit concerned about the fact that CPC persists with -PNA, while the CDC has an interesting positive spike that suddenly crashes negative as D7 arrives. I mentioned this yesterday and it has to do with the W-E corrdinate needing to be concerved during an overall -PNA. In other words, be weary of meridional solutions during a time when the -PNA will assert a progressive characteristic in there one way or the other! Does that "mean" a more east solution - probably to some degree. How much? I think the primary going up into the GL does not necessarily violate these principles, because we see it weaken smartly once there. Take your pick, but either solution shows less support for a low being there, wether one arrives and decays, or doesn't get there at all. I also caution that discussion regarding the orientation of the NAO becuase again...the PNA plays a role here folks in the form of conserve progressivity outside the effective area of the NAO domain. Once it gets here, a cut-off low is acceptible. Another synoptic clue is that when this trough max amplifies the ridge axis in the west in over the ND/SD - typical wave spacing does not usually take a mlv vortex W of ALB when that is situated. Wow, I'm clearly out of my league here. Now I know how Sanchez and the Jets felt last night. Informative and I'm sure the answer is in there once i read and re-read it a few times. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm going to go ahead out on a limb and say that every man, woman, and child into the weather game is really going to disappointed by the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Will, would there be flooding issues in the mountains and in Maine with that amount of rain on top of some decent snowpack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At least upstate NY gets screwed too..Don't need snow in Syracuse and rain here.. What an awful turn of events. I feel like smashing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Did you mean "less heights and lower velocities mean MORE compression ... etc" ? Good post I mean 'less heights and lower velocity' means MORE compressibility - i.e., not as compressed. Compressed flow is a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At least upstate NY gets screwed too..Don't need snow in Syracuse and rain here.. What an awful turn of events. I feel like smashing something Burly men with their windows rolled down and arm sticking out in the warm sector of the Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At least upstate NY gets screwed too..Don't need snow in Syracuse and rain here.. What an awful turn of events. I feel like smashing something Yeah! Let's break stuff because it isn't going to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At least upstate NY gets screwed too..Don't need snow in Syracuse and rain here.. What an awful turn of events. I feel like smashing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 congrats Marquette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm going to go ahead out on a cliff along with every man, woman, and child into the weather game and just jump after seeing the 12z Euro Really? That bad wow......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I mean 'less heights and lower velocity' means MORE compressibility - i.e., not as compressed. Compressed flow is a bad thing Yeah, gotcha. I midread "compression" to be "compressibility" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Burly men with their windows rolled down and arm sticking out in the warm sector of the Monday storm. Hopefully we'll get to have a Wiz severe squall line thread started in the next few days. those are always fun to read in Mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At least upstate NY gets screwed too..Don't need snow in Syracuse and rain here.. What an awful turn of events. I feel like smashing something Noose, yup. Chair, yup. Rafter, yup. Tipped....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 rather nauseating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 congrats Marquette Well,At least the pats are use to playing in snow and cold....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 How in the f does every other piece of guidance trend east and the f'ing Euro trends 100 miles farther west. The rev is disrobing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 wtf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well,At least the pats are use to playing in snow and cold....... I'll never be a Pats fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 HAHAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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