mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 ; Seeing as it could not get much worse, this is a solid speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 plus bastardi says spring arrives right after christmas..ugh!!! I wouldn't worry too muchabout that last part lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 In the category of "Hobbies of mine that I care deeply about, yet I can't control the outcome of" ........I would gladly take a dominating Patriots team over a snowstorm in the middle of December. That being said, there's plenty more winter to come, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 In the category of "Hobbies of mine that I care deeply about, yet I can't control the outcome of" ........I would gladly take a dominating Patriots team over a snowstorm in the middle of December. That being said, there's plenty more winter to come, right? 660 The Fan has been priceless today, esp this AM. I'd rather see the Jets lose next week than the Patriots win Sorry for the OT... winter and snow isn't over either, just on hiatus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Decent agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Decent agreement there. Blocking over Greenland is a little different though, Looks to be furtehr east on the GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 As we thought, frisbees for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 As we thought, frisbees for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 As we thought, frisbees for everyone. right into logan11's fanny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Does anyone think that this system comes more east with time? I mean the EURO develops the -NAO west based block too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Does anyone think that this system comes more east with time? I mean the EURO develops the -NAO west based block too late. The west based -NAO block is in response to this system...so that feature will not be present prior to the system moving in. It will only come east if it has less interaction with the PV to the north, and to a lesser extent, if the clipper is stronger and better with redevelopment...the latter looking less likely as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It would be nice to see even a dusting on Friday. Euro basically has a windshift line coming through, although I could still see areas of -sn with that. Regardless, it truly is Dr. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It would be nice to see even a dusting on Friday. Euro basically has a windshift line coming through, although I could still see areas of -sn with that. Regardless, it truly is Dr. No. maybe one of those deals where the further N and W you are the better chances that you get a brief period of steady light snow? edit: also...check pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Thanks Will, yeah I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The west based -NAO block is in response to this system...so that feature will not be present prior to the system moving in. It will only come east if it has less interaction with the PV to the north, and to a lesser extent, if the clipper is stronger and better with redevelopment...the latter looking less likely as we get closer. If I didn't look at the qpf, you would think even a little area of -sn over sne..based on the vortmax coming through. I guess it's probably too disjointed from the other vortmax north of Lake Huron and we can't get any Atlantic inflow established...or at least very little established, on the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 maybe one of those deals where the further N and W you are the better chances that you get a brief period of steady light snow? edit: also...check pm Yeah better dynamics up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 If I didn't look at the qpf, you would think even a little area of -sn over sne..based on the vortmax coming through. I guess it's probably too disjointed from the other vortmax north of Lake Huron and we can't get any Atlantic inflow established...or at least very little established, on the last couple of runs. So keeping it real Scooter, are we looking at nothing of "winter like" interest along the coastal plain until the week of Xmas as it looks right now? "generally speaking" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Wow, I take a few hours away from the board and gloom has apparently turned to doom. Told myself I wouldn't commit to pessimism until after wed. night euro so I'll stick to that thanks. I will say that the prospect of only seeing a T - 2" of snow through mid December was not what i had in mind when there was talk of winter getting off to a strong start in the NE and then "relaxing" for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 So keeping it real Scooter, are we looking at nothing of "winter like" interest along the coastal plain until the week of Xmas as it looks right now? "generally speaking" I wouldn't say that right now. There are way too many things that could happen with that block in place. While it's possible, I'll be amazed if a good chunk of sne doesn't see a decent wintry event by Chritsmas. I don't mean a KU, but something plowable at least....several inches or something. Maybe it comes two weeks from now..I don't know. It's not a horrific pattern, we just haven't been able to capitalize on it yet, but I wouldn't rule out another cutter either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Massive snowstorm right before Christmas on the 374 hour GFS. Cheer up guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Wow, I take a few hours away from the board and gloom has apparently turned to doom. Told myself I wouldn't commit to pessimism until after wed. night euro so I'll stick to that thanks. I will say that the prospect of only seeing a T - 2" of snow through mid December was not what i had in mind when there was talk of winter getting off to a strong start in the NE and then "relaxing" for a while. Yeah this hasn't worked out how anyone envisoned..even the mets thought we'd be getting snow events . All we're looking at are more upslope events down the rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I wouldn't say that right now. There are way too many things that could happen with that block in place. While it's possible, I'll be amazed if a good chunk of sne doesn't see a decent wintry event by Chritsmas. I don't me a KU, but something plowable at least....several inches or something. Maybe it comes to weeks from now..I don't know. It's not a horrific pattern, we just haven't been able to capitalize on it yet, but I wouldn't rule out another cutter either. Deja Vu all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 at this point I'm rooting for a torch this weekend...we ain't gonna get any winter weather...might as well be able to do something with the kids out of the house without freezing our butts off. at least this winter has gotten off to a better start than 2006-07 in this part of SNE. I don't think I saw a flake until mid-January that year...have already seen two 1/2" events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 at this point I'm rooting for a torch this weekend...we ain't gonna get any winter weather...might as well be able to do something with the kids out of the house without freezing our butts off. at least this winter has gotten off to a better start than 2006-07 in this part of SNE. I don't think I saw a flake until mid-January that year...have already seen two 1/2" events this year. Nah. I at least want ice on the ponds so I can do something wintery. Hope the cold rushes back in after the storm as was suggested by some models yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 we better get some freaking snow before the end of this year or there is going to be some bad performance reviews for my employees!!! Meh...mine's in the bag by mid October. Best time to review me...prior 6 months I'm a dynamo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Deja Vu all over again. And we might not capitalize, we just don't know. Usually, snow events sort of fall into place within 7 days or so. The fact that the ensemble mean has low pressure hanging east of sne, means that there are members that probably have a miller b look to them. So yeah, the chances are there, but we'll never know for real until within 7 days or so. All you can do is hope and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 are the ensembles showing this thing more SE? At least the NOGAPS shows a blizzard LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 And we might not capitalize, we just don't know. Usually, snow events sort of fall into place within 7 days or so. The fact that the ensemble mean has low pressure hanging east of sne, means that there are members that probably have a miller b look to them. So yeah, the chances are there, but we'll never know for real until within 7 days or so. All you can do is hope and wait. I'm actually no where near as frustrated as I felt at time last year. For one it's early but this pattern seems to show so much volatility that I'm hoping we do get some surprises like a low popping along a coastal front or an overproducing swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm actually no where near as frustrated as I felt at time last year. For one it's early but this pattern seems to show so much volatility that I'm hoping we do get some surprises like a low popping along a coastal front or an overproducing swfe. The GOA low weakens towards the end of the run, so maybe we can get some split flow actions with s/w's rolling down from Manitoba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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