Its cold enough when do we snow?

[Ginx snewx]

Something to watch tomorrow is the formation of a squall line as the surge of Arctic air low 850 " s and some pos advection move through. Should mostly affect Pike North but possible NCT gets in on it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Well I lived in the third floor from 90-93 and second floor in '94. Were you roommates with Thompson, Mengalitis and Hazelwood? Or were you there later? I think I remember a guy named Parek and an asian guy who stuttered. Second floor was a bunch of weirdo's I never met.

Freakin' small world

Yeah, I had Mega as a roomate and Hazey for a bit. Don't remember an Asian guy but I had 2 of Indian descent

I think I was there 1990-1993? Heavy heavy drinking. Probably like 20 roomates during the time there. What a sh it hole

Moved out of Lowell for good in 1994, but I worked at a summer engineering camp this year while Smith (a former home, too) came down.

1992-1993 was a great winter there. Plus the PSC right up the street!

[Tropopause_Fold]

MRG would do pretty sweet IMO...but your way...rain.

Given the trends though...it just doesn't seem right.

he would maybe be OK...but that's about it. crappy antecedent air mass...deep SE flow and a SLP track over HFD is not going to cut it.

[ski MRG]

MRG would do pretty sweet IMO...but your way...rain.

Given the trends though...it just doesn't seem right.

Always liked the Ukie, it's obviously the first to latch onto the coreect solution.

he would maybe be OK...but that's about it. crappy antecedent air mass...deep SE flow and a SLP track over HFD is not going to cut it.

Thanks Phil, I know you're keeping your fingers crossed for me.

[moneypitmike]

Always liked the Ukie, it's obviously the first to latch onto the coreect solution.

Thanks Phil, I know you're keeping your fingers crossed for me.

Front end dump for the win. Subsequent phase change is another kind of dump. lol

23.3/14

[Ginx snewx]

Always liked the Ukie, it's obviously the first to latch onto the coreect solution.

Thanks Phil, I know you're keeping your fingers crossed for me.

Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in.

[moneypitmike]

Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in.

I'll take that--what's the timing of that? I have to run down to Amherst for a meeting. With my luck, it'll come through when I'm down there in the valley. lol

[Mr Torchey]

Said somewhere else, dont count out more of a frontal passage on monday with some backside energy(anafrontal) giving especially western ne some snow, its been on some of the modeling and ensembles..............

This thing is not done yet.

Loooooooong ways to go folks, long ways.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in.

How do you figure? What are you looking at/piecing together?

School is in session and Prof Ginx has the podium

[moneypitmike]

Dave's trying to find an angle to get a snow day.

[ORH_wxman]

Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in.

I'm actually not impressed with any WINDEX potential tomorrow at all to be honest.

Very weak LI spike, limited moisture above 850mb, and lapse rates are a bit marginal...though not terrible. PVA might be able to generate a couple scattered flurries though.

[ski MRG]

Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in.

I'll be looking for that. Skiing tomorrow. It's been a fun couple of days up here. So good to be working and playing in the snow again. It's Tuesday night and people are Swandiving over a storm next Sunday.lol I do like that the Ukie is east and that the 18z GFS ensembles are trending East. So much will happen between now and then but I feel confident by this time next week there'll be a net gain on snowpack here.

I'll take that--what's the timing of that? I have to run down to Amherst for a meeting. With my luck, it'll come through when I'm down there in the valley. lol

I'm going to buy you a rabbit's foot otherwise you may never see snow again.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Dave's trying to find an angle to get a snow day.

LOL... Pref no snow days unless it means I can hit Wachusett

As a lifelong learner, I hope Prof Ginx or Dr Scooter or another member of this fine establishment can edumacate me each day

Don't go skating away on the thin ice of a torch day

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm actually not impressed with any WINDEX potential tomorrow at all to be honest.

Very weak LI spike, limited moisture above 850mb, and lapse rates are a bit marginal...though not terrible. PVA might be able to generate a couple scattered flurries though.

Dr Will's class used to be fun. Now it's all boring homework and notes, no recess

[moneypitmike]

LOL... Pref no snow days unless it means I can hit Wachusett

As a lifelong learner, I hope Prof Ginx or Dr Scooter or another member of this fine establishment can edumacate me each day

Don't go skating away on the thin ice of a torch day

Wear your helmut and shouldermapads.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wear your helmut and shouldermapads.

Terribke

It has been colder than forecast by BOX for a few days/longer now

Maybe that will hold true?

Don't you value edumacation?

Funny, my iPod thinks that is a real word

[Mr Torchey]

Pond hockey looks like a lock by Friday night if not THursday, cant wait! Some fresh ice by Monday then its back into the deep freeze if the snow does not happen.

GOtta love December pond hockey in sw ct, very very rare occurence!

[ski MRG]

Said somewhere else, dont count out more of a frontal passage on monday with some backside energy(anafrontal) giving especially western ne some snow, its been on some of the modeling and ensembles..............

This thing is not done yet.

Loooooooong ways to go folks, long ways.

Yup, totally agree. Hey, how ya doin' today? Ok? That was quite the slice of humble pie that got jammed down the...... well, you know.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yup, totally agree. Hey, how ya doin' today? Ok? That was quite the slice of humble pie that got jammed down the...... well, you know.

Hitting Stowe on Wednesday?

[ski MRG]

Hitting Stowe on Wednesday?

Haven't decided yet, game time decision as we head north. K-mart possibly.

[Mr Torchey]

Yup, totally agree. Hey, how ya doin' today? Ok? That was quite the slice of humble pie that got jammed down the...... well, you know.

Doing great, yes it was and the JEts needed it, I suppose its how the Pats felt when they got whooped down in Jersey earlier in the year, or Cleveland.

Pete I would not rule out you getting absolutely smoked come early next week!!!!! :snowman:

[ski MRG]

Doing great, yes it was and the JEts needed it, I suppose its how the Pats felt when they got whooped down in Jersey earlier in the year, or Cleveland.

Pete I would not rule out you getting absolutely smoked come early next week!!!!! :snowman:

I'm going to start making sacrifices to ULLR tomorrow. That should secure the early week snow. You're a true fan to be able to be bouyant after that drubbing. Don't you guys play us in Buffalo soon. That loss is really ging to be tough for you.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm actually not impressed with any WINDEX potential tomorrow at all to be honest.

Very weak LI spike, limited moisture above 850mb, and lapse rates are a bit marginal...though not terrible. PVA might be able to generate a couple scattered flurries though.

Perhaps but the secondary spike of vorticity rotating down from Canada associated with the Arctic surge might be enough especially in hilly areas to combine synoptic with the upslope component to generate squally instability snows . The SREF shows a definite bagginess to isobar fields

This combined with a wind shift line and strong advection

might be enough as I said from the Pike North to get something going, perhaps noonish, BTV is very bullish for their northern and central zones . I think an extension into the Berkshire and ORH up country if not NCT is feasible.

BTV

NEXT CONCERN IS 700-500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG

PVA PROGGED BY NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY

FROM WNW-ESE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH SURGE

OF COLDER 850MB TEMPS/LOWER 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES. WHILE

SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD DOESN/T SUGGEST A WELL-DEFINED

FRONT...OTHER FACTORS SUGGEST PERIOD OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC-SCALE

ASCENT THAT SHOULD MANIFEST AS A 1-3HR PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW

SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME FRAME. COULD SEE

CENTRAL/NRN AREAS RECEIVE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH

LOW VISIBILITY 10-14Z FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MIGHT MAKE FOR A SLOW COMMUTE

[Tropopause_Fold]

Perhaps but the secondary spike of vorticity rotating down from Canada associated with the Arctic surge might be enough especially in hilly areas to combine synoptic with the upslope component to generate squally instability snows . The SREF shows a definite bagginess to isobar fields

might be enough as I said from the Pike North to get something going, perhaps noonish, BTV is very bullish for their northern and central zones . I think an extension into the Berkshire and ORH up country if not NCT is feasible.

sort of a different animal that BTV is talking about. maybe we are starting to toss around WINDEX too often. there's a fairly tight definition to it.

[Mr Torchey]

I'm going to start making sacrifices to ULLR tomorrow. That should secure the early week snow. You're a true fan to be able to be bouyant after that drubbing. Don't you guys play us in Buffalo soon. That loss is really ging to be tough for you.

Buffalo actually comes to the swamp on Jan 2nd. Enjoy the snow squalls tomorrow afternoon!

[Ginx snewx]

sort of a different animal that BTV is talking about. maybe we are starting to toss around WINDEX too often. there's a fairly tight definition to it.

I never said Windex Will did.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I never said Windex Will did.

[ORH_wxman]

I never said Windex Will did.

Well you mentioned some heavier squalls with the arctic front...that's a WINDEX...at least for us it is. Up in BTV CWA they have more things going on like the Lake, upslope and are closer to the synoptic moisture.

We could get some flakes, but I don't think we'll see any heavy squalls.

[ma blizzard]

Well I lived in the third floor from 90-93 and second floor in '94. Were you roommates with Thompson, Mengalitis and Hazelwood? Or were you there later? I think I remember a guy named Parek and an asian guy who stuttered. Second floor was a bunch of weirdo's I never met.

Freakin' small world

frat? or maybe it is now.

[Ginx snewx]

sort of a different animal that BTV is talking about. maybe we are starting to toss around WINDEX too often. there's a fairly tight definition to it.

For those who are wondering what Phil is talking about Windex stands for Winter Instability snow squalls

During the early 90’s a wintertime instability index (WINDEX) was developed to assess the potential for snow squalls along frontal boundaries across New England. It was that study which attempted to quantify moisture, lift and instability in the low levels of the atmosphere needed to produce snow squalls in an environment unstable in respect to shallow upright convection.

Windex calculation

You calculate the difference between the T1 and the T5 if it is over 10, and especially over 15, you then look at the lifted index.. if it rises significantly after the proposed event, and the RH at R1 is over 50%, you will have instability squalls.

T1: Temperature in the 35 mb closest to the surface

T5: Temperature at 800 mb

R1: Relative Humidity in the 35 mb closest to the surface

Lifted Index: Instability index calculated by lifting parcels from the

surface to  500 mb and subtracting the temperature of its environment

from the parcel temperature.