Its cold enough when do we snow?

[skierinvermont]

I think the main thing at this point is the PV over canada and a piece of energy rotating around it which tries to knock down heights over SE canada. Need that PV to advance farther SE I think.

[dryslot]

I think the main thing at this point is the PV over canada and a piece of energy rotating around it which tries to knock down heights over SE canada. Need that PV to advance farther SE I think.

That would help so the sw does not dig as far west.......

[dryslot]

Lack of any mets in these threads tonight does not give me the warm and fuzzys about the upcoming events..........

[skierinvermont]

That would help so the sw does not dig as far west.......

All of the GFS ensemble members that hit us have a stronger/farther SE PV which knocks down heights over SE canada. Some of them are also digging the original sw so far southwest that it gives the PV more time to establish flow over SE canada and new england before the storm arrives. This is also why the ensemble mean has been trending slower and farther east I think. Opposite the trend we often see where slower means farther west.

I have very little hope for anybody outside western MA and NNE though.

[Mr Torchey]

Yeah, I think the clipper is done, That sw moves into canada, If we want to see a storm here we will need all 3 of those scenarios to come into play to get this sw further east, I don't think we can rule anything out and right now, Based on some of the east trends on some of the models and ensembles from today, I think a coastal hugger could come into play, Just my thoughts......

This storm has bwi acy gon bos written all over it, and climo says even a smidge east over the canal. How many times have we seen guidance shift east, when ens means are near the HV, its not going up the Hudson Valley, I can see a track to pitt, then redevelop and go up the canal, but there is no way a primary is going up the HV, sorry its just not.

[Mr Torchey]

All of the GFS ensemble members that hit us have a stronger/farther SE PV which knocks down heights over SE canada. Some of them are also digging the original sw so far southwest that it gives the PV more time to establish flow over SE canada and new england before the storm arrives. This is also why the ensemble mean has been trending slower and farther east I think. Opposite the trend we often see where slower means farther west.

I have very little hope for anybody outside western MA and NNE though.

This is a berks and greens mauler. If the rest of us see frozen, than its a major bonus, but this storm is not cutting west of Detroit, no way.

[skierinvermont]

This storm has bwi acy gon bos written all over it, and climo says even a smidge east over the canal. How many times have we seen guidance shift east, when ens means are near the HV, its not going up the Hudson Valley, I can see a track to pitt, then redevelop and go up the canal, but there is no way a primary is going up the HV, sorry its just not.

I don't think anybody wants it to run the HV but we are running out of meteorological reasons for why it won't. Euro ensemble mean OH to near Albany getting pretty hard to argue against at this point. Need some shifts soon.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lack of any mets in these threads tonight does not give me the warm and fuzzys about the upcoming events..........

Events? You mean Friday's flurry? Or Sun/Monday's drizzle?

[OKpowdah]

Someone needs to calculate our post to snow ratio so far this season. Not looking too good

[Tropopause_Fold]

Someone needs to calculate our post to snow ratio so far this season. Not looking too good

:lol:

it's going to be a while before that ratio improves.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Lack of any mets in these threads tonight does not give me the warm and fuzzys about the upcoming events..........

They're posting a bit in the thread that Tip started.

[Mr Torchey]

Someone needs to calculate our post to snow ratio so far this season. Not looking too good

ginxy got two inches

[dryslot]

Events? You mean Friday's flurry? Or Sun/Monday's drizzle?

Both..........

[Tropopause_Fold]

I don't think anybody wants it to run the HV but we are running out of meteorological reasons for why it won't. Euro ensemble mean OH to near Albany getting pretty hard to argue against at this point. Need some shifts soon.

we are going to have to see a whole load of stuff change and change a lot from the currently modeled day 4/5 pattern. maybe we'll start to see some small shifts in guidance and a gradual improvement over the next day or two but i wouldn't expect much.

it just isn't the set-up to deliver the goods to most of NE.

this has had cutter and/or inland runner written all over it for days and days. it is what it is.

[Mr Torchey]

I wonder if Phil could talk about the situation off the se coast and how that might affect things down the road, pretty stark differences between the 18 and 0z nam.

I sure as hell cant figure it out, and the lp on the gfs was off obx as well, and at first was just a cf issue but maybe not?? i dont know? what do you think phil?

[40/70 Benchmark]

we are going to have to see a whole load of stuff change and change a lot from the currently modeled day 4/5 pattern. maybe we'll start to see some small shifts in guidance and a gradual improvement over the next day or two but i wouldn't expect much.

it just isn't the set-up to deliver the goods to most of NE.

this has had cutter and/or inland runner written all over it for days and days. it is what it is.

Thank you.

I didn't feel good about this one Saturday at the gtg, but folks kept telling me it was too early......I could tell the EURO had locked onto a general idea.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think that at this point folks should just look foreward to the 2nd half of the month and hope that we salvage that because the next 1.5+ weeks are a wash.

[dryslot]

I think that at this point folks should just look foreward to the 2nd half of the month and hope that we salvage that because the next 1.5+ weeks are a wash.

Glad to see the Valium has kicked in......lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Glad to see the Valium has kicked in......lol

Not sure what you mean by that......make all the jokes about me you want, but it's not going to make it snow.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I wonder if Phil could talk about the situation off the se coast and how that might affect things down the road, pretty stark differences between the 18 and 0z nam.

I sure as hell cant figure it out, and the lp on the gfs was off obx as well, and at first was just a cf issue but maybe not?? i dont know? what do you think phil?

i'm not sure that the ncep products will even be right with that feature. seems like a very spurious development there. i suspect it will gradually erode from the output soon.

but who knows.

regardless, i don't think it would have much impact on anything.

[dryslot]

Not sure what you mean by that......make all the jokes about me you want, but it's not going to make it snow.

Not a joke, It just seemed yesterday you were a litle peturbed with these chances slipping by...

[DomNH]

Not a joke, It just seemed yesterday you were a litle peturbed with these chances slipping by...

I think we were all perturbed yesterday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not a joke, It just seemed yesterday you were a litle peturbed with these chances slipping by...

Oh...I have to vent from time to time, but we'll still be ok if the 2nd half of this month gets going.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we were all perturbed yesterday.

I know some get annoyed, but I find it funny when people get frustrated and just start ripping.....I think it's a healthy little release.

[weatherwiz]

Oh...I have to vent from time to time, but we'll still be ok if the 2nd half of this month gets going.

Do you know when the 4 major stations average their first inch by usually?

[dryslot]

Oh...I have to vent from time to time, but we'll still be ok if the 2nd half of this month gets going.

And i agree with that, But you won't be the only one that vents if we get to Jan and i still have brown grass.......

[DomNH]

I know some get annoyed, but I find it funny when people get frustrated and just start ripping.....I think it's a healthy little release.

Agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Do you know when the 4 major stations average their first inch by usually?

Boston is around now I think, but that is NBD.....if we have seen nothing by Xmas, then it may be time to get somewhat concerened....I think Will would agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

And i agree with that, But you won't be the only one that vents if we get to Jan and i still have brown grass.......

[Mr Torchey]

i'm not sure that the ncep products will even be right with that feature. seems like a very spurious development there. i suspect it will gradually erode from the output soon.

but who knows.

regardless, i don't think it would have much impact on anything.

I recall somebody saying earlier that it would erode from the modeling, but since then, its only gotten stronger, and in fact the nam even hints at some light precip making it up into the nyc area, I am sure its nothing, but the iso's seem to kink just a tad>? WOuldn't that be crazy if this thing was drawn north friday night? I have seen stranger things happen for sure, thanks phil, I appreciate your wisdom.