nzucker Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I thought they looked ok...the west based -NAO looks to be decaying and the PAC is less hostile (though still not ideal)...it should give us chances. I mean, its all we can ask for at this point. We will have been in a decent longer wave pattern for the most part since Dec 4-5 by the time we get to mid month I think. Its too bad some permutations in the field are going against us at the moment (as they have for quite a while now), but if we keep that general look that the ensembles have, we'll have something break our way. Man total loss of cross-polar flow on the ECM OP after the coming system. Almost no low heights left in Canada at all as the arctic air once again shifts towards Europe and the Atlantic Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Watched your rescue live today from the ice flow in the CT River. Surprised they released you so early or are you posting from the Psych ward? Wow have you lost it! AO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Correct....December normal to slightly below snowfall.....March one for lore...... I do not expect a shutout this month, however I think it will be a pretty forgettable month as far as snow goes. Normal for me is not that much for December. I'll take a normal or below normal snowfall for December, if that means we have winter that actually lasts through March for once. It's getting awfully tiresome of winter ending around Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Man total loss of cross-polar flow on the ECM OP after the coming system. Almost no low heights left in Canada at all as the arctic air once again shifts towards Europe and the Atlantic Arctic. Not much on the ensembles either, but if the GOA low does weaken along with the insane nao block, that could change later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Not much on the ensembles either, but if the GOA low does weaken along with the insane nao block, that could change later this month. GFS also had the overly blocked up look in the LR so we'll see if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Not much on the ensembles either, but if the GOA low does weaken along with the insane nao block, that could change later this month. Christ, these insane NAO blocks.....it's like having your pitching staff throwing 4 consecutive no-hitters in a row, yet you lose them all do to a unique and well timed intertwining of walks, errors, balks, wild pitches and passed balls that we meteorologists\ meteorology enthusiasts refer to as "perturbations" and "cosmic dildos"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Watched your rescue live today from the ice flow in the CT River. Surprised they released you so early or are you posting from the Psych ward? Wow have you lost it! I've been pretty good today. Not whining..just facing reality..Reality bites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Man total loss of cross-polar flow on the ECM OP after the coming system. Almost no low heights left in Canada at all as the arctic air once again shifts towards Europe and the Atlantic Arctic. Misread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The gfs won't let go of that spurious low ahead of storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The gfs won't let go of that spurious low ahead of storm 2. Kudos to you guys.....I just don't care enough to look at the models right now because I know they won't display anything of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friendwh Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 fwiw, 18z GFS is coming in more like 6z (albany runner) vs. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I've never seen a calendar year when something good could sharpen the steel dildo and ram it in...good lord! by winter month: Jan: NYD: Too much blocking but a lucky pull. Feb PV suppresses historic DC-PHL blizzard Marine puke gives us driving rain while NYC gets 20 inches. December: Too much blocking kills the chance of a good coastal (this week). PV phasing with system in the southern states amplifies up my left inner hemorrhoid because NAO is too far east. Archambault.....for Cleveland future: NAO too strong and snow is whisked around us. All of these things can typically work well for us so we're on the schneid....our luck will change but this is so crazy I almost root for it...it is so unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 fwiw, 18z GFS is coming in more like 6z (albany runner) vs. 12z meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 B OX finally updated long term AFD after having the same one up for 2 full days some of those folks there need to pull their heads out. Some potential still..provided the Euro is wrong SHORT WAVE TROF AND OVERRUNNING PATTERN COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MOST NOTABLE EVENT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE SUN INTO MON WHEN REGION IS IMPACTED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF. LOOKS LIKE AN INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SNOW AND ICE TO START IN THE INTERIOR DEPENDING UPON TO WHAT EXTENT COLD AIR HOLDS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL SHOW INSIDE RUNNER WITH AT LEAST FAIR MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY...12Z UKMET DEPICTS A FURTHER EAST SOLUTION AND LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE TREND IS TO SHOW A FEW MORE MEMBERS JUST OFF THE COAST. TRIED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ACROSS REGION WITH TIMING BUT THINK WE MAY BE A LITTLE FAST WITH THE ONSET ON SUN. OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND DEPENDING UPON ULTIMATE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILE...MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT OVER SE ZONES. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM CONSIDERABLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS SUN NIGHT AND MON IF WE DO SEE AN INSIDE RUNNER. HOWEVER...COULD END UP BEING MUCH TOO WARM IF A FURTHER EAST SOLUTION IS REALIZED. COLD AIR RETURNS WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MON NIGHT AND TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I've never seen a calendar year when something good could sharpen the steel dildo and ram it in...good lord! by winter month: Jan: NYD: Too much blocking but a lucky pull. Feb PV suppresses historic DC-PHL blizzard Marine puke gives us driving rain while NYC gets 20 inches. December: Too much blocking kills the chance of a good coastal (this week). PV phasing with system in the southern states amplifies up my left inner hemorrhoid because NAO is too far east. Archambault.....for Cleveland future: NAO too strong and snow is whisked around us. All of these things can typically work well for us so we're on the schneid....our luck will change but this is so crazy I almost root for it...it is so unique. You forgot Dec 11-14, 1992 + .1* C in March You also forgot the 2nd, larger blizzard that we missed in Feb and the HECS that buried Logan 11. You also forgot too LITTLE blocking can't retrograde the ME MECS over to us this Decemeber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well at least we get some winter cold tomorrow. 18z GFs has a white start to things anyway. Might be the only white we'll see for a while. 23.5/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 If we all sing really really hard..maybe the Ukie will be right..all we want for Christmas is the Ukie to be right..the Ukie to be right..the Ukie to be right..All we want for Christmas is the Ukie to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 You forgot Dec 11-14, 1992 + .1* C in March You also forgot the 2nd, larger blizzard that we missed in Feb and the HECS that buried Logan 11. You also forgot too LITTLE blocking can't retrograde the ME MECS over to us this Decemeber. Disaster. Gotta say I'm a little concerned about a Nina that is perking back up and getting screwed when we should have been cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well, i guess it's time to look for the NY locations for skiing. Tough year for the NE crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Dgex gives western ct and mass some good backside snows early next week, yep DGEX, I get it, but anything positive is better than posting crapola. 18x gfs major shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Disaster. Gotta say I'm a little concerned about a Nina that is perking back up and getting screwed when we should have been cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Man the south is going to freeze next week. Ray should buy his oranges now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 You forgot Dec 11-14, 1992 + .1* C in March You also forgot the 2nd, larger blizzard that we missed in Feb and the HECS that buried Logan 11. You also forgot too LITTLE blocking can't retrograde the ME MECS over to us this Decemeber. 1992 was a great winter so that's fine. The last point on too LITTLE blocking is because too MUCH blocking got it to do a wide right on us. I'm reminded of a Bruins game I went to about 30 years ago. This guy behind me kept yelling...MY AZZHOLE HURTS...MY AZZHOLE HURTS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Doesn't look like the 18z GFS is that far away from a front end dump of a couple inches up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 1992 was a great winter so that's fine. The last point on too LITTLE blocking is because too MUCH blocking got it to do a wide right on us. I'm reminded of a Bruins game I went to about 30 years ago. This guy behind me kept yelling...MY AZZHOLE HURTS...MY AZZHOLE HURTS.... No he is referring to the imitation of Dec 1992 in March last year where most of the region was about 1C in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 1992 was a great winter so that's fine. The last point on too LITTLE blocking is because too MUCH blocking got it to do a wide right on us. I'm reminded of a Bruins game I went to about 30 years ago. This guy behind me kept yelling...MY AZZHOLE HURTS...MY AZZHOLE HURTS.... Jer he is calling the last week of Feb storm the 92 almost. Same setup only 1 degree too warm region wide entire column too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 1992 was a great winter so that's fine. The last point on too LITTLE blocking is because too MUCH blocking got it to do a wide right on us. I'm reminded of a Bruins game I went to about 30 years ago. This guy behind me kept yelling...MY AZZHOLE HURTS...MY AZZHOLE HURTS.... I know.....I was just expounding on your point regarding too much blocking....the blocking could have been weaker OR stronger and we would have made out all right. lol That wasn't fine....that Dec 1992 storm was epic, but this March it was like 1*c warmer so it was all rain this time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The 100 mile trend east is not surprising. GFS has been back and forth all day. Prolly go back next run. Still a ways out and I think we might not have a solid solution until Friday. In any case, I'm thiking it's either going to be 100 miles west of current track, or 100 miles east. Of course this is my uneducated (based on dumb experience only) guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Hudson Valley runner. So that actually was a shift east since the 00z was over CLE then ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 No he is referring to the imitation of Dec 1992 in March last year where most of the region was about 1C in the mid-levels. I remember that thread on some other wx board "+.01C Rainstorm" or something What other ways will 2010 get us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.