afvet89 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 heres the new rgem, even better than the global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 next weeks storm. this looks about right (the way the last 2 years have been) time to jump on the rollercoaster ride for a week.....gotta love winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, things are indeed lining up nicely next week. I like how the energy has almost the entire conus to ride, before swinging toward the gulf and up the coast. That is a really great setup with the se ridge showing up. Only concern at this time would be a cutter, but with all of the cold and the vortex so far south - it should be able to ride up the piedmont. GFS has a bomb solution at 0z, 972 wrecking into southeast new england and a whopping 952 just northeast of Maine. I do really like how fluid the energy seems to traverse and phase with the shortwave diving out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS has a bomb solution at 0z, 972 wrecking into southeast new england and a whopping 952 just northeast of Maine. I do really like how fluid the energy seems to traverse and phase with the shortwave diving out of Canada. And it this point we can't worry about qpf fields. A storm that strong with an inland track...... we would be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 And it this point we can't worry about qpf fields. A storm that strong with an inland track...... we would be golden. i know...just having some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 European from what I can gather is a bit further west tracking the low than the GFS, and somewhat weaker with a 981 by around eastern mass. Looking at the text printout looks like a general 0.5" give or take a tenth for the JST/AOO/UNV corridor, MDT more like 0.7, but has a probable change to mixed or rain with a 6 hr period where 850s and surface are a degree or two above freezing. Pittsburghs involved, with about 0.4". As Tony said, can't really worry too much about QPF placement at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, things are indeed lining up nicely next week. I like how the energy has almost the entire conus to ride, before swinging toward the gulf and up the coast. That is a really great setup with the se ridge showing up. Only concern at this time would be a cutter, but with all of the cold and the vortex so far south - it should be able to ride up the piedmont. I'm not gonna lie, a piedmont bomb would shut me up for the rest of the winter. It's been a long time, since we had a pure miller a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Lil chillier today then yesterday. therm. at home said 11, which is 13 degrees colder then yesterday at the same time. GFS seems to be dry for me for the weekend but nam is spitting out about 2 1/2. Looks like a combo, snow and sleet and then some FRZN to top it off. maybe a 1-3 or 2-4 type deal here i would guess. Now somebody saddle up this pony and get it outta here, make room for that wagon train that wants to come in next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Lil chillier today then yesterday. therm. at home said 11, which is 13 degrees colder then yesterday at the same time. GFS seems to be dry for me for the weekend but nam is spitting out about 2 1/2. Looks like a combo, snow and sleet and then some FRZN to top it off. maybe a 1-3 or 2-4 type deal here i would guess. Now somebody saddle up this pony and get it outta here, make room for that wagon train that wants to come in next week I think it's becoming likely that there will be a significant, perhaps major storm next week that affects the entire state. I still think in the end that the SE ridge flexes itself just enough to push this at the very least up the coastal plain which would mean heavy snow to heavy rain for you and me, with heavy snow further west. Eric Horst said the pattern is now set up perfectly for La Nina, which would suggest that our friends from about IPT to UNV to JST and west would be very happy by this time next week... It's all still speculation this far out, but the Euro seems to be latching on to that track more or less already. And with it's known bias, you kind of have to figure the GFS is going to come further N and W as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Great post. Joe Lundberg seems to be skeptical of any warmup lasting a long time, fwiw. I agree with Joe L. We're probably going to see a warm up, but the last week to ten days of February will see us head back into the cold regime, imo. P.S. There has been zero discussion about moving MDT/LNS to the Philly forum P.P.S. I don't know what the exact storm track is going to be (though I lean toward the western solutions), but next week's storm is going to be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree with Joe L. We're probably going to see a warm up, but the last week to ten days of February will see us head back into the cold regime, imo. P.S. There has been zero discussion about moving MDT/LNS to the Philly forum P.P.S. I don't know what the exact storm track is going to be (though I lean toward the western solutions), but next week's storm is going to be a monster. Please don't. We are (south) central Pennsylvania, not Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree with Joe L. We're probably going to see a warm up, but the last week to ten days of February will see us head back into the cold regime, imo. P.S. There has been zero discussion about moving MDT/LNS to the Philly forum P.P.S. I don't know what the exact storm track is going to be (though I lean toward the western solutions), but next week's storm is going to be a monster. Cool.....we didn't want to have to do guerrilla incursions into the mod forum. BTW.....you are a benchmark forecaster now for this storm. This is my own thing. I follow what forecasters who I pay close attention to say, then adjust odds on that. If you shift east after your previous posts, I will become more enthused. And that's not ripping forecasters who may thing a piedmont runner or just inland track; just a matrix I make up for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The culture shock of moving a SCPA subforum into the Philadelphia region alone would be enough to probably scare a few people on here away. Add the collection of misfits that comprise the Philly forum and by moving us, you're basically showing some of us the door. Honestly, Putting is in a Baltimore regional forum would make more sense than Philadelphia, seeing as how most of us in SCPA are closer to Baltimore than Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Please don't. We are (south) central Pennsylvania, not Philly. No matter how regions are divided, one could make an argument that so and so belongs in another area instead of where they are. I really don't believe there's the "perfect solution." I guess I could make the argument that KLNS is more similar weatherwise to KPHL than it is to KUNV, but to point #1 above, what we have now is working perfectly for us, why fix something that isn't broke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The culture shock of moving a SCPA subforum into the Philadelphia region alone would be enough to probably scare a few people on here away. Add the collection of misfits that comprise the Philly forum and by moving us, you're basically showing some of us the door. Honestly, Putting is in a Baltimore regional forum would make more sense than Philadelphia, seeing as how most of us in SCPA are closer to Baltimore than Philadelphia. I agree with your first point for sure, I was thinking that same thing. I'd probably stop posting myself. I don't want any part of the Baltimore thread either, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 P.S. There has been zero discussion about moving MDT/LNS to the Philly forum I think we are all quite happy with where we are. Plus the fact that most of us are under CTP and not Mt. Holly give it little more continuity as well. One small adjustment I would request is removing "South Central PA" from the Philly Regional description just so any newbies don't get confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm on board for this monster!! I'm impressed that state college has pops up at 50% on the very last timeframe of their long range forecast. Sorta bawlsy, but I like! edit: for the record, no mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Clouds moving in much earlier than expected. We are not going to have a sunny day today. Probably will update their forecast. Any significance to this, other than colder temps today? Snow starting earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 As we approach the 1 year anniversary of our historic Feb. '10 double barrel pummelings, just wondering if there's interest in starting a thread for images, memories, etc. of those events. Mid Atlantic already has one pinned for them and it's pretty cool seeing pics, forecasts, radar and the like from last year. I'm sure a lot of us have similar stuff. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 As we approach the 1 year anniversary of our historic Feb. '10 double barrel pummelings, just wondering if there's interest in starting a thread for images, memories, etc. of those events. Mid Atlantic already has one pinned for them and it's pretty cool seeing pics, forecasts, radar and the like from last year. I'm sure a lot of us have similar stuff. Thoughts? I'd like to see pics. I was hammered drunk for most of the time during the 2 storms so I don't remember much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 As we approach the 1 year anniversary of our historic Feb. '10 double barrel pummelings, just wondering if there's interest in starting a thread for images, memories, etc. of those events. Mid Atlantic already has one pinned for them and it's pretty cool seeing pics, forecasts, radar and the like from last year. I'm sure a lot of us have similar stuff. Thoughts? Good idea, I don't know how many of us saved anything though. I don't have anything but memories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'd like to see pics. I was hammered drunk for most of the time during the 2 storms so I don't remember much. only way to live through a snowstorm like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Clouds moving in much earlier than expected. We are not going to have a sunny day today. Probably will update their forecast. Any significance to this, other than colder temps today? Snow starting earlier? Yeah, we are overcast here as well, though a bit thin. Looking at the flag outside, we have a strong breeze out of the south, so we may still rocket up pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 As we approach the 1 year anniversary of our historic Feb. '10 double barrel pummelings, just wondering if there's interest in starting a thread for images, memories, etc. of those events. Mid Atlantic already has one pinned for them and it's pretty cool seeing pics, forecasts, radar and the like from last year. I'm sure a lot of us have similar stuff. Thoughts? i have a ton of saved pics, and I do think it would be a cool thread(and wouldn't derail this thread)...i'd say start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm stayin right here.....Philly has a bad stigma to it. I often do better than they do in the piedmont, so I'd like to say +1 for not moving us. BTW, I'm not getting hyped up yet, but it does sound quite interesting for next week. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, we are overcast here as well, though a bit thin. Looking at the flag outside, we have a strong breeze out of the south, so we may still rocket up pretty quickly. we have a light south wind right now...not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cool.....we didn't want to have to do guerrilla incursions into the mod forum. BTW.....you are a benchmark forecaster now for this storm. This is my own thing. I follow what forecasters who I pay close attention to say, then adjust odds on that. If you shift east after your previous posts, I will become more enthused. And that's not ripping forecasters who may thing a piedmont runner or just inland track; just a matrix I make up for myself. This is #15 on the CIPS analog list right now. It's a good representation of the schematic I have in my head right now, except I would expect the precip shield to be more expansive. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks similar to the track we had earlier this week. I think you have the right idea. Just have watch the models to see how far west they come. Snow, no snow, a little snow, a lot of snow, ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 temps are soaring here....25 now from 18 at 9 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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