PennMan Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Given the last couple cycles of the models, it looks like folks that have a decent snowpack on the ground will more than likely be able to keep most of it for a bit longer at least. A shortwave now progged to drop through the lakes next Tuesday appears like its going to send another couple days of chillier weather into the region. The GFS is colder than the Euro overall for the period. Both models bring the chillier air with the shortwave but the Euro tries to get alot of PA in the 50s for a day before that. GFS keeps PA in the 30s-low 40s tops Sun/Mon. Right now I would probably take a blend of sorts for those two days and say mid 30s to near 50 on Sunday/Mon from NW to way SE. It looks like the crack at widespread 50s might have to wait a few more days after that.. maybe... right now i'm not really impressed with any kind of prospects for an epic warmup wrt averages, at least for the first half of next week. But it will be quiet with a zonal pattern and not much stormwise to talk about. It's debatable exactly how warm things will get for the region during this warmer period, but it will warm up for sure. This regime will probably take 10-14days (starting Sun) to run its course and then if climatology has its way with La nina Marches, I expect a reestablishment of a cold pattern to open March give or take a few days. I certainly don't think CPA is out of it in terms of some good storms. The best recent example of a great opening half of March in a la nina was 1999. I remember that period quite well despite being a 7th grader at the time. We came out of an extended period of warmth with a bang on March 4th with a rapidly deepening low pressure system right over central pa that moved up into New York. There's not alot written about this particular storm but it featured a change from heavy rain to snow and an extended period of thundersnow with very high winds in the area. I remember being woken up in the middle of the night to very high winds, a virtual several hour whiteout, lightning/thunder, and losing power and seeing power flashes from the transformers blowing up in the distance like something out of a tornado video. In short it was pretty awesome. Anyways, off the soap box.. this storm was followed by i believe a clipper type system a few days later that dumped some moderate snows and then a noreaster on the 14th of March (my birthday). That one's on Rays winter weather archive. Not saying there's a repeat in the making, but just giving an example that La nina Marches can be active in PA. Good post, as usual. I don't know how much liquid is tied up in the snowpack here in State College, but it is substantial. It's dense with ice at the bottom and a very thick layer at the top, with some dryer snow sandwiched in between. It will take more than a couple days in the low 40s to make a dent in it. Hopefully it can survive and we can add to it around the end of the month and into early March...I'm optimistic we see something worthwhile in the next 3-4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Its cold. 15° currently. Just had a JamieOber sighting at the Giant next to my apartment complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hey PennMan, can you start a new thread? I'll lock this one up. P.S. Sorry for the horrendous forecast bust for this event on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.