Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 NWS is saying 2 to 3 tops tapering off by 1am...they must not be impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 light rain here at millersville...actually feels nice out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Pouring snow now...already covering roads....can barely see down the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Trivia time..... no peeking allowed..... What are the top three snowstorms to impact most of PA over the last 30 years, according to nesis? Answers taken until 9pm Hmm...I'll take a stab. March 12-13, 1993 - Has got to be the top. January 6-7, 1996 - Concentrated towards SEPA, but I think almost the whole state had 4+? February 16-18, 2003 - Concentrated south again, but should be in the running. Others for #3: January 2?-23, 1987, March 2-3, 1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah PennMan...2003 has to be in the running, we have 18" here from that and we're pretty well North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Notice the event name... SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/08/11 0148Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 0132ZBELGE . LOCATION...NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...MARYLAND...WEST VIRGINIA... LOCATION...OHIO...KENTUCKY... . ATTN WFOS...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL... ATTN WFOS...ILN... ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...OHRFC... . EVENT...UL LOVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOD PRECIP THROUGH TN/OH VALLEY VALLEY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MOSTLY LGT TO MOD SNOWFALL BEING OBSERVED THROUGH AREAS OF CNTRL KY/SRN OH AND INTO ERN/CNTRL PA AS UL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. UL LOW IS MOVING ALONG SW TO NE ORIENTED SFC BNDRY WHICH IS ALSO ROUGHLY THE DELINEATING LINE BETWEEN RAIN TO THE EAST AND SNOW TO THE WEST. DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST HAS LED TO THE BEST CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT ACROSS ERN KY AND INTO SRN OH. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. LGT PRECIP ALREADY BEING REPORTED THROUGH CNTRL PA AS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. BUT AS UL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE NE..EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER THAT REGION AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN PRECIP. THE BEST SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS SHOULD BE FROM NE KY INTO SRN OH/WRN WV AND THEN INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA AND SRN NY. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-0500Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE WRN SIDE OF UL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE NE. SNOWFALL RATES COULD GET UP TO 1"/HR ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE. AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE NE AND COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT UL SYSTEM TO GENERALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. . SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST. ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES: HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/ ...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/ . LAT...LON 4309 7865 4074 7583 3693 8324 3968 8434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 just went out. roads are bad but its not snowing very hard here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 just went out. roads are bad but its not snowing very hard here at all. looks like things will take a little break before picking back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hmm...I'll take a stab. March 12-13, 1993 - Has got to be the top. January 6-7, 1996 - Concentrated towards SEPA, but I think almost the whole state had 4+? February 16-18, 2003 - Concentrated south again, but should be in the running. Others for #3: January 2?-23, 1987, March 2-3, 1994? You're right on the money! You win 2" of snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 precip looks to be falling apart over central,pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 looks like things will take a little break before picking back up its a waiting game now...i hate waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 wow..still snowing pretty good...when should this shut off? 12 or 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 looks like things will take a little break before picking back up Hopefully that deform gets to residing right over central PA later this eve. Seems like the short range simulated radars are trying to rush it off without a chance to really focus for awhile and dump some snow. HRRR (00z) just kills the deform band without ever really pushing east of Johnstown. Will be interesting to see what happens. Pretty much an inch total so far on surfaces that have accumulated the snow the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hopefully that deform gets to residing right over central PA later this eve. Seems like the short range simulated radars are trying to rush it off without a chance to really focus for awhile and dump some snow. HRRR (00z) just kills the deform band without ever really pushing east of Johnstown. Will be interesting to see what happens. Pretty much an inch total so far on surfaces that have accumulated the snow the best. Latest WV loop showing cooling cloud tops pushing this way from SE OH - W WV, but that is some pretty dry air pushing up your way from the south. It'll be interesting to see if it can be overcome with round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 wow..still snowing pretty good...when should this shut off? 12 or 1? Prob around then. Unless round 2 survives into NEPA. How much do you have so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I have 1.3 on the ground. still 31.8, light snow falling currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 .5" last I checked...only been snowing since 815. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Fwiw...NAM hits us pretty good in the next 8 to 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Non-accumulating snow has been falling since about 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 snowing nicely here east of Williamsport...just measured 1.5"....could be an over-performer. What's it look like to you mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 just by eyeballing it - it looks like 1.5 - 2" for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 just by eyeballing it - it looks like 1.5 - 2" for this storm. I got 1.3" currently, if the rest of the deform has enough steam to get over the Laurels maybe can take a run at 2". Stuff is just plastered on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgirl Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 3 inches for Black Moshannon and wind was already picking up when I left at 7 am this morning. That's what I measured this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I saw four or five flakes of snow this morning. MDT's snowcover is just about gone, piles are still around in parking lots and a few grass surfaces but it's 80-85 percent done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I saw four or five flakes of snow this morning. MDT's snowcover is just about gone, piles are still around in parking lots and a few grass surfaces but it's 80-85 percent done. So you're clearing all the parking lots and grass surfaces and have 80-85% cleared? Good job! Can you come on up to State College when you're done there? We still have a pretty good snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Ended up with 3.0" from this storm, was very surprised to see the winter weather advisory verify. Hopefully we can keep temperature cold, looks like a big warm up is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I saw four or five flakes of snow this morning. MDT's snowcover is just about gone, piles are still around in parking lots and a few grass surfaces but it's 80-85 percent done. That's a little surprising to me. I'm about 15 miles southeast from MDT, and I'd guess at the start of the day we were at about 60% or so with snow cover. Certainly much less than that in exposed areas, but still nearly 100% in protected areas. Our snowfall this winter has been pretty much even, though actually MDT has done better than I have the past 2 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I saw four or five flakes of snow this morning. MDT's snowcover is just about gone, piles are still around in parking lots and a few grass surfaces but it's 80-85 percent done. Somewhere around 830ish, we had a heavy snow shower, it lasted all of 45 seconds. Here at the shop, we still have piles of snow and at home, my yard is still covered.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 We have about 7" of snow pack. Here is what I measured around 8:00am this morning. From last nights storm. 1.5" of snow....wished it could have been 33.5 Well it doesn't hurt to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Given the last couple cycles of the models, it looks like folks that have a decent snowpack on the ground will more than likely be able to keep most of it for a bit longer at least. A shortwave now progged to drop through the lakes next Tuesday appears like its going to send another couple days of chillier weather into the region. The GFS is colder than the Euro overall for the period. Both models bring the chillier air with the shortwave but the Euro tries to get alot of PA in the 50s for a day before that. GFS keeps PA in the 30s-low 40s tops Sun/Mon. Right now I would probably take a blend of sorts for those two days and say mid 30s to near 50 on Sunday/Mon from NW to way SE. It looks like the crack at widespread 50s might have to wait a few more days after that.. maybe... right now i'm not really impressed with any kind of prospects for an epic warmup wrt averages, at least for the first half of next week. But it will be quiet with a zonal pattern and not much stormwise to talk about. It's debatable exactly how warm things will get for the region during this warmer period, but it will warm up for sure. This regime will probably take 10-14days (starting Sun) to run its course and then if climatology has its way with La nina Marches, I expect a reestablishment of a cold pattern to open March give or take a few days. I certainly don't think CPA is out of it in terms of some good storms. The best recent example of a great opening half of March in a la nina was 1999. I remember that period quite well despite being a 7th grader at the time. We came out of an extended period of warmth with a bang on March 4th with a rapidly deepening low pressure system right over central pa that moved up into New York. There's not alot written about this particular storm but it featured a change from heavy rain to snow and an extended period of thundersnow with very high winds in the area. I remember being woken up in the middle of the night to very high winds, a virtual several hour whiteout, lightning/thunder, and losing power and seeing power flashes from the transformers blowing up in the distance like something out of a tornado video. In short it was pretty awesome. Anyways, off the soap box.. this storm was followed by i believe a clipper type system a few days later that dumped some moderate snows and then a noreaster on the 14th of March (my birthday). That one's on Rays winter weather archive. Not saying there's a repeat in the making, but just giving an example that La nina Marches can be active in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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