Scummyratguy Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 is the disappearing storm this weekend or the next one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well...here's the thing. He is comparing it in the setup in how it phases, and also due to the fact that the trough is further west and he wonders if the big cities can stay all snow. I can post this small sample: "Like this weekend, it will be a close call in the big cities, but the ante will be upped way higher than just a 3-6 inch storm with what is on the table." One thing, you even mention that storm and compare it, and people think OMG two to three feet and 60 mph winds. Not sure if that is what he intends to say. I hope we can all cash in on it if it happens. That would rock. Haha, I'm prob not going to really look into this threat until at least we get this current one for Saturday by us. As for that, I think the p-type issues will be along the border counties (Bedford/Fulton/Franklin/southern huntingdon) and looping up into the mdt region. CTP's new long term thinking precip mixed for everyone south of I-80 with MDT having a potential to go over to plain rain. So once again, another forecast with headaches involving other types of precipitation. Since this storm actually involves a low that goes to the east of us this time, there's a better chance for a snowier solution to pan out. The big thing will likely be efficiency of accumulations, and that will hinge on timing and intensity of precip given the marginal temps. This setup could also be more of an elevational threat as well. It'll be interesting to watch this apparent second storm threat (or third if you count the potential light snow from the Tuesday front). Although I would take things with a grain of salt for awhile until we get alot closer. JB brings up good points, like with the mean trough being further west than with all big coastals of this winter. I would be alot more concerned about a major storm cutting too far west than I would one glancing or missing central PA and destroying our friends to the east. Gonna be alot at stake there, cuz unlike the end of December i'm afraid he's probably going to be right with the major winter weather busting towards late February, in fact a big-time storm in that timeframe may set it in motion. Otherwise, the NAO has quietly been generally neutral or postive for a couple weeks with the AO now getting positive (there is alot of spread in the forecasts today). Couple that with the primary Jan. pattern driver +PNA forecast to trend negative, MJO now nonfactor, etc and I think our really consistent winter pattern's days are numbered. But we still likely have a good 10-14 days yet. It's sorely overdue really to have say a 7-10+ day period of above average temperatures. I think since December 1st here i've maybe had about 3 days that might've topped 40 or so. So if we do indeed have a late month pattern bust, the question will then become will we have the cold pattern return once into March some. That is something that normal la-nina's traditionally do (think March 99, March 2008 as a couple examples)...who knows what this one will do. The CFS forecast for March is an eastern blowtorch apparently, but that could mean the first 10 days of March is way above average and then the rest of the month is cold enough for late snow threats. Basically what JB is defining with his "false spring". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 LOL this is pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Went GFS/EURO vs NAM to Euro/NAM vs GFS. lol Don't forget the RGEM.... looks like the nam a bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Not to get back to the catorgory threads but why would they put SC Pa with philly, I think Chester Co east. (I know Lancaster Co is on the edge) And i already stated what i think of some posters in the phlly thread. Maybey change South Central to South Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So, tomorrow night/saturday event looks like a few inches of slop here in York? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So, tomorrow night/saturday event looks like a few inches of slop here in York? You are on the border for a mix-to-rain-to-snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Haha, I'm prob not going to really look into this threat until at least we get this current one for Saturday by us. As for that, I think the p-type issues will be along the border counties (Bedford/Fulton/Franklin/southern huntingdon) and looping up into the mdt region. CTP's new long term thinking precip mixed for everyone south of I-80 with MDT having a potential to go over to plain rain. So once again, another forecast with headaches involving other types of precipitation. Since this storm actually involves a low that goes to the east of us this time, there's a better chance for a snowier solution to pan out. The big thing will likely be efficiency of accumulations, and that will hinge on timing and intensity of precip given the marginal temps. This setup could also be more of an elevational threat as well. It'll be interesting to watch this apparent second storm threat (or third if you count the potential light snow from the Tuesday front). Although I would take things with a grain of salt for awhile until we get alot closer. JB brings up good points, like with the mean trough being further west than with all big coastals of this winter. I would be alot more concerned about a major storm cutting too far west than I would one glancing or missing central PA and destroying our friends to the east. Gonna be alot at stake there, cuz unlike the end of December i'm afraid he's probably going to be right with the major winter weather busting towards late February, in fact a big-time storm in that timeframe may set it in motion. Otherwise, the NAO has quietly been generally neutral or postive for a couple weeks with the AO now getting positive (there is alot of spread in the forecasts today). Couple that with the primary Jan. pattern driver +PNA forecast to trend negative, MJO now nonfactor, etc and I think our really consistent winter pattern's days are numbered. But we still likely have a good 10-14 days yet. It's sorely overdue really to have say a 7-10+ day period of above average temperatures. I think since December 1st here i've maybe had about 3 days that might've topped 40 or so. So if we do indeed have a late month pattern bust, the question will then become will we have the cold pattern return once into March some. That is something that normal la-nina's traditionally do (think March 99, March 2008 as a couple examples)...who knows what this one will do. The CFS forecast for March is an eastern blowtorch apparently, but that could mean the first 10 days of March is way above average and then the rest of the month is cold enough for late snow threats. Basically what JB is defining with his "false spring". Mag Nice post ! NCEP talks about the storm. quote: I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html Don't forget the RGEM.... looks like the nam a bit: Tony Gem looks Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not to get back to the catorgory threads but why would they put SC Pa with philly, I think Chester Co east. (I know Lancaster Co is on the edge) And i already stated what i think of some posters in the phlly thread. Maybey change South Central to South Eastern. I've been away since last night, are they trying to move us south-central residents? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think if you arein the Harrisburg/York area and points north and west you should be in this thread and region I'm in Pittsburgh and this thread as constructed is like our second home. I think the southern half of PA from 81 to the Ohio border all most of the time is looking for the same things in developing storms. Throw in a couple great mets in the middle from the Johnstown/Altoona area, and this is great as constructed. I wouldn't go anywhere if I was in the Susquehanna Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgirl Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Jeannie, Can I post that photo on Twitter? BTW, I don't know if you use it, but I post forecasts/weather stuff there on the hashtag #CentreCast Sure, I don't mind. I haven't used it before, but I'm going to look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgirl Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm sure you all are ready to move on to the next weather event; however, I wanted to mention that we still have ice on this mountain and it was 20 degrees at 5:15 pm. The wind didn't take as much ice of the trees as I thought it would. Just curious if anyone else still has ice north of here? I'll post a pic from this evening...sure is beautiful and wish everyone could enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 And the models fall apart within 48hrs again. Not looking like much now from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 JB says next week is the week of all weeks as far as winter maybe on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 JB says next week is the week of all weeks as far as winter maybe on the way. does that mean it will be a good week for winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'll stay here.. us peeps in nepa really don't have a home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 And the models fall apart within 48hrs again. Not looking like much now from this system. yeah, what was that all about. We go from 5 inches to like 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 JB says next week is the week of all weeks as far as winter maybe on the way. You excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 And the models fall apart within 48hrs again. Not looking like much now from this system. Qpf isn't much different. This was never a huge storm, 2-5" amounts west of I-81/78, with lighter totals and a mix south and east of there. Now, next week at this time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 does that mean it will be a good week for winter? Since JB says it, probably not. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 You excited? It's too hard to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Haha, I'm prob not going to really look into this threat until at least we get this current one for Saturday by us. As for that, I think the p-type issues will be along the border counties (Bedford/Fulton/Franklin/southern huntingdon) and looping up into the mdt region. CTP's new long term thinking precip mixed for everyone south of I-80 with MDT having a potential to go over to plain rain. So once again, another forecast with headaches involving other types of precipitation. Since this storm actually involves a low that goes to the east of us this time, there's a better chance for a snowier solution to pan out. The big thing will likely be efficiency of accumulations, and that will hinge on timing and intensity of precip given the marginal temps. This setup could also be more of an elevational threat as well. It'll be interesting to watch this apparent second storm threat (or third if you count the potential light snow from the Tuesday front). Although I would take things with a grain of salt for awhile until we get alot closer. JB brings up good points, like with the mean trough being further west than with all big coastals of this winter. I would be alot more concerned about a major storm cutting too far west than I would one glancing or missing central PA and destroying our friends to the east. Gonna be alot at stake there, cuz unlike the end of December i'm afraid he's probably going to be right with the major winter weather busting towards late February, in fact a big-time storm in that timeframe may set it in motion. Otherwise, the NAO has quietly been generally neutral or postive for a couple weeks with the AO now getting positive (there is alot of spread in the forecasts today). Couple that with the primary Jan. pattern driver +PNA forecast to trend negative, MJO now nonfactor, etc and I think our really consistent winter pattern's days are numbered. But we still likely have a good 10-14 days yet. It's sorely overdue really to have say a 7-10+ day period of above average temperatures. I think since December 1st here i've maybe had about 3 days that might've topped 40 or so. So if we do indeed have a late month pattern bust, the question will then become will we have the cold pattern return once into March some. That is something that normal la-nina's traditionally do (think March 99, March 2008 as a couple examples)...who knows what this one will do. The CFS forecast for March is an eastern blowtorch apparently, but that could mean the first 10 days of March is way above average and then the rest of the month is cold enough for late snow threats. Basically what JB is defining with his "false spring". Great post. Joe Lundberg seems to be skeptical of any warmup lasting a long time, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 SUPERB work by the mets on here.....and since I have a five post limit I didnt have a chance to say this earlier. This board is by far the best I have been a part of, from guys like Jamie, Sauss, Maytown, pawatch, 2001kx,PennMan and Eastern are our level headed even keel guys who help us out. And even us "pessimists" add occasionally lol (Me afvet, Hazleton) I love this board and wouldn't change a thing! Now let's get some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The weekend storm is disappearing on the models, next week is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Qpf isn't much different. This was never a huge storm, 2-5" amounts west of I-81/78, with lighter totals and a mix south and east of there. Now, next week at this time...... Yea I haven't been too excited about this Saturday event, even back in the areas that probably stay all snow. With the marginal temps I think a good portion of the snow falling during the day has trouble accumulating if it isn't too intense. So a good general 2-3 inches is probably in order, with some of those higher amounts possible in isolated places, and possibly in the Pocono's since the storm seems to look better after it gets by central PA. Still a chance could get some better precip, since it is a gulf system after all and sometimes they can be a lil wetter. JB put on his evening update video and its def interesting wrt next week. He showed the new euro weekly forecast for next week and pretty much the whole country was multiple shades of dark blue and was pretty much at a loss of words for the expanse of it. Showed some parallels of the pattern on the approaches of the 66, 78 (midwest version), and 93 storms vs what the models have for the late week next week. Some epic hitters there to be comparing against. The 12/18z GFS and 12z Euro did have some pretty deep runs along the eastern seaboard though, with the euro getting to 949 north of Maine. The CMC has a storm but is a bit more typical in strength. So right now it's looking decent for some kind of a big storm, but who it targets for snowfall will likely be the usual wild ride it is in trying to determine such things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Great post. Joe Lundberg seems to be skeptical of any warmup lasting a long time, fwiw. Thank you, Yea and as a matter of fact to add further on the above post I just made pertaining to JB's video, I thought this was interesting as well, part of a quick statement on his blog. Tonight must be new euro weekly night btw. BTW it is going to warm up Feb 20-27 but the euro is not as warm after that as I would have liked to see. I will jump off that ice floe when I come to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yea I haven't been too excited about this Saturday event, even back in the areas that probably stay all snow. With the marginal temps I think a good portion of the snow falling during the day has trouble accumulating if it isn't too intense. So a good general 2-3 inches is probably in order, with some of those higher amounts possible in isolated places, and possibly in the Pocono's since the storm seems to look better after it gets by central PA. Still a chance could get some better precip, since it is a gulf system after all and sometimes they can be a lil wetter. JB put on his evening update video and its def interesting wrt next week. He showed the new euro weekly forecast for next week and pretty much the whole country was multiple shades of dark blue and was pretty much at a loss of words for the expanse of it. Showed some parallels of the pattern on the approaches of the 66, 78 (midwest version), and 93 storms vs what the models have for the late week next week. Some epic hitters there to be comparing against. The 12/18z GFS and 12z Euro did have some pretty deep runs along the eastern seaboard though, with the euro getting to 949 north of Maine. The CMC has a storm but is a bit more typical in strength. So right now it's looking decent for some kind of a big storm, but who it targets for snowfall will likely be the usual wild ride it is in trying to determine such things. Yeah, things are indeed lining up nicely next week. I like how the energy has almost the entire conus to ride, before swinging toward the gulf and up the coast. That is a really great setup with the se ridge showing up. Only concern at this time would be a cutter, but with all of the cold and the vortex so far south - it should be able to ride up the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, things are indeed lining up nicely next week. I like how the energy has almost the entire conus to ride, before swinging toward the gulf and up the coast. That is a really great setup with the se ridge showing up. Only concern at this time would be a cutter, but with all of the cold and the vortex so far south - it should be able to ride up the piedmont. Maybe this will finally be our big one.... And maybe Erin Andrews will show up at my dorm tomorrow in a bikini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ggem looks good for saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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