Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, we are overcast here as well, though a bit thin. Looking at the flag outside, we have a strong breeze out of the south, so we may still rocket up pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the fuddometer says 30 degrees here in York. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is #15 on the CIPS analog list right now. It's a good representation of the schematic I have in my head right now, except I would expect the precip shield to be more expansive. FWIW. So you seem to be leaning toward another central PA ice event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So you seem to be leaning toward another central PA ice event? At the moment, yes. But it's all really dependent on when the northern stream phases in. If it phases in later, like in the GFS, the surface low track will be farther south and would keep you guys all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm really busy today, so i don't have time to look through all the threads, but just heard the radio say 3-5 for Saturday here, what did i miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Only 12 degrees here. Was 6 this morning. Adam No more ice. That last storm was hard on man and equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm so out of the loop on what's going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 imo with marginal surface temps i see nothing more than 1-3 inches region wide. where more qpf falls, it'll likely be cut by mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the above map that Adam posted, is that the potential for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the above map that Adam posted, is that the potential for next week? yeah that is an analog map for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the above map that Adam posted, is that the potential for next week? It was meant as a high level overview of where my head is at right now for the 9-11th storm. Don't take it verbatim and you could easily see things shift over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It was meant as a high level overview of where my head is at right now for the 9-11th storm. Don't take it verbatim and you could easily see things shift over the next several days. Oh no i won't and i thought thats what it was, i'm just trying to keep this weekend and next week seperate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ok, thoughts on Sunday driving up to Hershey to see the Hershey Bears? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 perhaps Adam or another met can help me out but why is there so much cold air available for this system on the gfs(next weeks) when there is not a high pressure system in sight...is this the gfs likely being too cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 perhaps Adam or another met can help me out but why is there so much cold air available for this system on the gfs(next weeks) when there is not a high pressure system in sight...is this the gfs likely being too cold? Nope, I think it is spot on. You have the polar vortex over Hudson Bay and cross-polar flow from Siberia flooding into the CONUS. That puts a 1040+ high over the Plains with massive cold advection coming form the North Pole, plus you've got a 50/50 low helping to flush down cold air as well. Overall, it's the cross polar flow that is really providing the cold air source, but you've got two mechanisms to get it down into the US. Hope this makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Storm fell off the face of the earth on the GFS goes off the coast, no phase. That's more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Storm fell off the face of the earth on the GFS goes off the coast, no phase. That's more like it. That is so awesome. At around 10am this morning, I was thinking to myself that it's about the time now for the GFS to completely lose this for a couple of days. It happens almost every single time with the biggies...it sniffs it out first, runs for it a while, then once the other models are on board, poof goes the GFS, only to bring it back in the days leading up to the event. I take this as a VERY good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z and 12z are almost identical until next Tuesday... then after that system moves off to the north east it handles 500mb features quite differently. Most of the winter, from what I have seen, the GFS has had a hard time knowing what to do with the polar vortex/short waves past systems that move through the eastern US. Many times we end up with these fantasy long range storms for them to only disappear and reappear over and over. If the other models stay consistant I would believe them more than the GFS right now with two systems to move through before this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That is so awesome. At around 10am this morning, I was thinking to myself that it's about the time now for the GFS to completely lose this for a couple of days. It happens almost every single time with the biggies...it sniffs it out first, runs for it a while, then once the other models are on board, poof goes the GFS, only to bring it back in the days leading up to the event. I take this as a VERY good sign. Bring it on..I'm ready for another biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Bring it on..I'm ready for another biggie Me too, but keep in mind that my comments are merely an observation of what I've noticed in the past. There's still the actual science as to why this happens, and I'm sure that there are different reasons for that with each unique system. There is nothing to say that the GFS won't be right in this scenario, but it does tend to lose storms and bring them back for whatever reason. There are lot of red taggers such as Adam on here that sense a very strong signal for a large storm later next week. Perhaps they (he) can explain why the GFS in particular seems to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Nope, I think it is spot on. You have the polar vortex over Hudson Bay and cross-polar flow from Siberia flooding into the CONUS. That puts a 1040+ high over the Plains with massive cold advection coming form the North Pole, plus you've got a 50/50 low helping to flush down cold air as well. Overall, it's the cross polar flow that is really providing the cold air source, but you've got two mechanisms to get it down into the US. Hope this makes sense. thank you very much! very understandable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 nam wants to give me all FRZN or plain ole rain for Saturday. Looks like it wants to stay around 32 for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Saturday looks very bleh...doesn't even look like much precip for anyone...less than .15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Throwing out some quick guesses for tommorrow IPT: T to an inch UNV: T to an inch...some mix..sleet and rain MDT: Sleet..FZDZ..rain AVP: 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like EURO is a bigh hit for next week's storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Don't like that there saying its on the Benchmark though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 euro was a BM storm, looks a little to far east for us here in CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like EURO is a bigh hit for next week's storm! Yeah, verbatim off of just THIS run, it might be a bit too far east for most on here. We'd get some decent snow, but from what I can see, not much gets west into true CPA. Pick your model and pick your run, lots of variations thus far, I'm sure many more to come. But I think it's a good thing for all of us, even those to the west, that models have come east today, because a trend back westward still seems to make the most sense at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anyone know what the Euro shows for tommorrow's event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anyone know what the Euro shows for tommorrow's event? Euro must not have been too far east for our region this run, Altoona's comin in at about 0.75 and Pittsburgh around 0.4. Harrisburgs 0.8", and this time unlike last night its all snow for them. AVP and IPT look like they're in at least the same amount of QPF but its a 6 hour frame or two outside of the range for my text output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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