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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco V


Baroclinic Zone

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Today should tell the tale, It's snow or bust.........

It may not IMO. I'm not sure we can be confident or will lose all the spread until tonight but there's hope it happens today.

The water vapor is interesting to me, it's showing the west to east drying across Mexico that's modeled, that miniscule spin off the coast of Mexico and the convection growing in the GOM that may be the key to the differing solutions/interruption.

What the NAM and others kind of show is the existing system outrunning the hang back energy that is all sheared (drying in mexico) and instead it points east and then comes up around into the eastern GOM and off the coast later which blossoms that first area of moisture. Seems like a really odd solution, there's some signs it may be trying to happen but strange.

Ok, time for coffee and the paper. Fascinating!

sat_wv_hem_loop.gif

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Don't forget, apparently we also have NOAA Recon Data from a high altitude GOM flight last night, inputted into the models for today.

Should be interesting how this new data affects the models.

I read that last night and I had a couple of questions wrt the flight:

1) do they usually fly these (new plane I think)

2) if not, why did they choose this event for the flight?

Kevin is promising 22" lollipops for someone

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I read that last night and I had a couple of questions wrt the flight:

1) do they usually fly these (new plane I think)

2) if not, why did they choose this event for the flight?

Kevin is promising 22" lollipops for someone

I think they do it in big potential storms that effect huge areas. They are research flights, and in this case I think NCEP knows the critical discrepancies are in the GOM which is data poor generally so they are trying to grab data where it is really needed. I wonder if it gets sent over to the Euro folks and the CMC?

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I think they do it in big potential storms that effect huge areas. They are research flights, and in this case I think NCEP knows the critical discrepancies are in the GOM which is data poor generally so they are trying to grab data where it is really needed. I wonder if it gets sent over to the Euro folks and the CMC?

Did not realize the GOM was a sparse data field. I figured between oil platforms, buoys, etc it would have a good sampling means.

I would imagine they would share, since it is public (for the US citizens) data... maybe they just give it sloooowwwlly...

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My gut tells me the Euro and ensembles back off a bit and the American models come NW. Part of the issue is, however, not how far NW this comes but it's how organized the mid level center gets when the thing exits the mid atlantic.

With the extra data ingested for the 12z runs I think the trend on the NAM and GFS will be important.

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It may not IMO. I'm not sure we can be confident or will lose all the spread until tonight but there's hope it happens today.

The water vapor is interesting to me, it's showing the west to east drying across Mexico that's modeled, that miniscule spin off the coast of Mexico and the convection growing in the GOM that may be the key to the differing solutions/interruption.

What the NAM and others kind of show is the existing system outrunning the hang back energy that is all sheared (drying in mexico) and instead it points east and then comes up around into the eastern GOM and off the coast later which blossoms that first area of moisture. Seems like a really odd solution, there's some signs it may be trying to happen but strange.

Ok, time for coffee and the paper. Fascinating!

sat_wv_hem_loop.gif

That's showing a huge circ moisture loaded storm on it's way.

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This has a bit of a 1/25/2000 look to it with the southern vort wanting to go negative and get hoisted up the coast.... So for those that need a hail mary pass - cling to that analog I guess.

The W. Ma tv mets were also very conservative this morning basically saying that there is still low confidence in a big storm up this way.

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My gut tells me the Euro and ensembles back off a bit and the American models come NW. Part of the issue is, however, not how far NW this comes but it's how organized the mid level center gets when the thing exits the mid atlantic.

With the extra data ingested for the 12z runs I think the trend on the NAM and GFS will be important.

No argument there. The 06z NAM being a whiff was a joke.

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