Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z runs rolling soon. The Euro has been steadfast over tha past few days with ist track on or around the BM. The NCEP models seem to be back to their off run craptasticness. On again, off again. The GGEM, Ukie, Nogaps are all solid hits for S/CNE. Previous discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Today should tell the tale, It's snow or bust......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't forget, apparently we also have NOAA Recon Data from a high altitude GOM flight last night, inputted into the models for today. Should be interesting how this new data affects the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Today should tell the tale, It's snow or bust......... I'm with the Doc all the way, but a compromise of sorts w/ the others may be the way to go. Hopefully we'll have more answers than questions after 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Today should tell the tale, It's snow or bust......... It may not IMO. I'm not sure we can be confident or will lose all the spread until tonight but there's hope it happens today. The water vapor is interesting to me, it's showing the west to east drying across Mexico that's modeled, that miniscule spin off the coast of Mexico and the convection growing in the GOM that may be the key to the differing solutions/interruption. What the NAM and others kind of show is the existing system outrunning the hang back energy that is all sheared (drying in mexico) and instead it points east and then comes up around into the eastern GOM and off the coast later which blossoms that first area of moisture. Seems like a really odd solution, there's some signs it may be trying to happen but strange. Ok, time for coffee and the paper. Fascinating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't forget, apparently we also have NOAA Recon Data from a high altitude GOM flight last night, inputted into the models for today. Should be interesting how this new data affects the models. I read that last night and I had a couple of questions wrt the flight: 1) do they usually fly these (new plane I think) 2) if not, why did they choose this event for the flight? Kevin is promising 22" lollipops for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 New Haven/HFD ABC aff weatherguy put up a whopping 2-5" from HFD N& W. He must go strictly GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I read that last night and I had a couple of questions wrt the flight: 1) do they usually fly these (new plane I think) 2) if not, why did they choose this event for the flight? Kevin is promising 22" lollipops for someone I think they do it in big potential storms that effect huge areas. They are research flights, and in this case I think NCEP knows the critical discrepancies are in the GOM which is data poor generally so they are trying to grab data where it is really needed. I wonder if it gets sent over to the Euro folks and the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 New Haven/HFD ABC aff weatherguy put up a whopping 2-5" from HFD N& W. He must go strictly GFS! The W. Ma tv mets were also very conservative this morning basically saying that there is still low confidence in a big storm up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 New Haven/HFD ABC aff weatherguy put up a whopping 2-5" from HFD N& W. He must go strictly GFS! it'll probably tick a hair west today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think they do it in big potential storms that effect huge areas. They are research flights, and in this case I think NCEP knows the critical discrepancies are in the GOM which is data poor generally so they are trying to grab data where it is really needed. I wonder if it gets sent over to the Euro folks and the CMC? Did not realize the GOM was a sparse data field. I figured between oil platforms, buoys, etc it would have a good sampling means. I would imagine they would share, since it is public (for the US citizens) data... maybe they just give it sloooowwwlly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I believe the ARW is superior to the NMM by the way Messenger. It's run with higher order physics and takes longer to run. NCAR actually prefers it over the NMM...but NCEP is in favor of using the NMM verison operationally. In case you haven't noticed, the operational NAM is basically the WRF-NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 My gut tells me the Euro and ensembles back off a bit and the American models come NW. Part of the issue is, however, not how far NW this comes but it's how organized the mid level center gets when the thing exits the mid atlantic. With the extra data ingested for the 12z runs I think the trend on the NAM and GFS will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It may not IMO. I'm not sure we can be confident or will lose all the spread until tonight but there's hope it happens today. The water vapor is interesting to me, it's showing the west to east drying across Mexico that's modeled, that miniscule spin off the coast of Mexico and the convection growing in the GOM that may be the key to the differing solutions/interruption. What the NAM and others kind of show is the existing system outrunning the hang back energy that is all sheared (drying in mexico) and instead it points east and then comes up around into the eastern GOM and off the coast later which blossoms that first area of moisture. Seems like a really odd solution, there's some signs it may be trying to happen but strange. Ok, time for coffee and the paper. Fascinating! That's showing a huge circ moisture loaded storm on it's way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I read that last night and I had a couple of questions wrt the flight: 1) do they usually fly these (new plane I think) 2) if not, why did they choose this event for the flight? Kevin is promising 22" lollipops for someone Maybe they should do a recon flight over Mt. Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This has a bit of a 1/25/2000 look to it with the southern vort wanting to go negative and get hoisted up the coast.... So for those that need a hail mary pass - cling to that analog I guess. The W. Ma tv mets were also very conservative this morning basically saying that there is still low confidence in a big storm up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 My gut tells me the Euro and ensembles back off a bit and the American models come NW. Part of the issue is, however, not how far NW this comes but it's how organized the mid level center gets when the thing exits the mid atlantic. With the extra data ingested for the 12z runs I think the trend on the NAM and GFS will be important. No argument there. The 06z NAM being a whiff was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe they should do a recon flight over Mt. Tolland. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Very nice to wake up to 1.5" of new and still snowing this AM. Then an even better bonus with a WSW from Upton for 6-12" on Wednesday. 6z GFS BUFKIT for KGON shows 18.5" all snow. Euro says maybe even more. Wow what a nice morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No argument there. The 06z NAM being a whiff was a joke. As you said, you're on a roll... ...that's why there is butter on your buns If the Euro trends a little towards the American turds..er models, will that be a big deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe they should do a recon flight over Mt. Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREF's should be the 1st indicator........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREFs ticked southeast....doesn't even bring the 0.50" line to mby lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the tension mounts... just read in nyc/philly thread that srefs have 996 on the bm. meanwhile it is snowing really hard in manhattan. can't see the building 20-30 blocks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow! No budge from the srefs! This is gonna look bad with some models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREFs ticked southeast....doesn't even bring the 0.50" line to mby lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well that's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREFs ticked southeast....doesn't even bring the 0.50" line to mby lol. Yeah, they are SE of the BM @ 42h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 my bad ... misread. are they se of the last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.