CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Certainly possible. I've kept my forecast on the table. A bit worried at what happened overnight but I'm standing by to chuck em if things move in the right direction. Maybe the euro ticks a pube se, but I dunno..that's a steadfast combo with the ec and ensembles. I'm pumped for 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I won't be online for the Euro today of all days..Have to bring my daughter on a school trip to the Bushnell If I'm not on a call, I can send you a text of "good/bad/ugly". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 998mb low about 50 miles east of HSE at hour 30 on Allen's site...4-5 mb deeper than the previous two runs. Low looks more consolidated and circular instead of stretched SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey you still have JB on your side. In fact I think he was targeting areas more inland than the big cities. He still hasn't issued a mea culpa. It's funny how people are just assuming the Euro is completely wrong because the US garbage doesn't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe the euro ticks a pube se, but I dunno..that's a steadfast combo with the ec and ensembles. I'm pumped for 12z. Did the Euro and Ensm look mostly frozen down this area? From the sound of it there was sleet but did not know if there was rain. I think it was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ouch I think the NAM still misses with big snows. Looked better and is more consolidated but the thing just rockets NE. Still have to watch that CCB. Probably can clip a lot of us with 'decent' snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ouch I think the NAM still misses with big snows. Looked better and is more consolidated but the thing just rockets NE. Still have to watch that CCB. Probably can clip a lot of us with 'decent' snow. Yeah..lol, just saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did the Euro and Ensm look mostly frozen down this area? From the sound of it there was sleet but did not know if there was rain. I think it was close. I think a little IP was possible down there, but it was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 998mb low about 50 miles east of HSE at hour 30 on Allen's site...4-5 mb deeper than the previous two runs. Low looks more consolidated and circular instead of stretched SW to NE. Still though up to this point 30/33 it's a hugely fragmented system. With the data ingested from the flights, I have to believe now this is the correct idea and we are going to see a dual structure. It will take a run at SNE, misses then we have to wait/hope for the CCB buildback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 30 Hrs, the NAM has a much strong low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BTW...I just looked at the Euro total qpf and it has gone SE since I last paid attention. Over the weekend it had 1" in ALB and then like .75" 0Z Monday and now it's at .25"... Which is probably too high anyway...but just saying.... Hey you still have JB on your side. In fact I think he was targeting areas more inland than the big cities. He still hasn't issued a mea culpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM is really, really far south at 36 hours. Congrats DC per this run. I don't know about up here, it's trying to build but on this run we are a million miles from the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think a little IP was possible down there, but it was colder. tkx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM is really, really far south at 36 hours. Congrats DC per this run. I don't know about up here, it's trying to build but on this run we are a million miles from the SLP. Yeah DC and PHL get a nice run. Still disjointed and just overall unpleasant. But at least it's not as bad as 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Still though up to this point 30/33 it's a hugely fragmented system. With the data ingested from the flights, I have to believe now this is the correct idea and we are going to see a dual structure. It will take a run at SNE, misses then we have to wait/hope for the CCB buildback. Are you referring to that blob that is dilly dallying its way across TN,KY, VA? Will that even make it into SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tomorrow's NYC meeting uncancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Damn NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 By 39 hours we're finally starting to see some nice development of precip into our region. Painful to watch this evolution, so many things can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Still though up to this point 30/33 it's a hugely fragmented system. With the data ingested from the flights, I have to believe now this is the correct idea and we are going to see a dual structure. It will take a run at SNE, misses then we have to wait/hope for the CCB buildback. It's less fragmented than the last two runs which what I was getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 By 39 hours we're finally starting to see some nice development of precip into our region. Painful to watch this evolution, so many things can go wrong. yeah it's still awfully ugly and really not what I wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Remember the huge 2001 storm that kept trending north? I think this is it's evil twin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it def came nw of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Are you referring to that blob that is dilly dallying its way across TN,KY, VA? Will that even make it into SNE? Not really, we'll see a huge increase in moisture off the SC coast much later that looks to miss us to the east. That's going to be associated with the vm that comes up from the GOM and comes at us. The hope we have and I suspect what the EUro is doing (I don't have access to maps in enough detail to tell)...is that the Euro may be bringing that up and around and at us instead of missing ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it def came nw of 06z. could be worse, correct lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it def came nw of 06z. I guess that is all I can ask for at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's actually a nice banding signal for parts of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the Euro and GFS may well now focus some on the eastern extension and then we have to wait for the CCB to crank. Phil is getting the business from the NAM by 39/42, blizzardo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1/25/2000 maybe if you want to find a somewhat similar one that came nack against all models forecasts inside 24 hours.... Remember the huge 2001 storm that kept trending north? I think this is it's evil twin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks good for SE MA, RI and CT this run........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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