tavwtby

you can see the precip hitting a brick wall of dry air as it tries to expand, expect nothing from this, but congrats SNJ/MA

funny about this current storm and my likelihood of moving to north georgia, there's a WWA for the area I'm looking at planting flag, while we're hoping whale farts blow a dusting at us, thought that was funny

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts.  But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so...

this is true

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That is our lot here when it comes to snowstorms.  But a cutter bringing a rainer... a model 8-9 days out is golden most of the time, lol.

yeah, this does seem to be the case, models nail the cutters, but swing and miss on coastals, but this ones been there for a bit now and the pattern shuffle and now some real cold moving in seems like more a possibility than most recent ones.

plugging in the chicken water heater tonight boy, droppin like a rock...hens first night with big boy, Winsted made us bring him to the farm, funny thing is if we were still in Waterbury I'd be able to keep him, anyway at least it'll feel like winter for my birthday, that's a plus from the London weather we've had for a week...

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s all northern stream. We also don’t have a big western ridge yet when this storm happens so the flow is going to be pretty progressive…which will be competing with no downstream blocking. It will be a fast mover it looks like. 

Thanks, what I figured, seems to be a running theme with storms here lately, minus a few that were slow, cutoff, retrograde storms, it seems most out coastal storms are like 12 hr blitz types.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BM track seeming most likely 

pick somewhere in the middle, and we all enjoy the fun somewhat... I'm not wholely bought in until Wednesday, but I believe this one has the most going for it than the others, and for some time now it's been a sig, so we do pray... Will, are we looking at a phase cutoff here or Nrn or srn dominant? hard to tell at this point...

so I can't see the full Euro, but TT is showing the Op cutting and ENS showing a LP south of SNE, how confident are we about the 7th threat at this range? heights look good too, looks legit to me, again, a week out so we'll have to see how the week goes, but would be nice to see something before I head south mid month to start new vocation.. where it's like 60/70 degrees daily it seems.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The biggest thing of all posts I hate is to lose December. All these posts of it’s not supposed to snow in December that you see. Climo is bad in Dec. I hate that . That means you only have 2 months before spring . I don’t care who avg more snow in Morch than Dec. It is supposed to snow in Dec in SNE . And when it does , it has a better chance of sticking around than Morch in spring sun . And then to lose the first 7-10 days of Jan . The writing is on the wall for this winter . It will snow again yes.. but this will end up a winter we will like to forget 

it's winters like this, where we don't really have any pack until, for me anyway, mid Jan, where the longer into the season, the more I'd be happy with just a big one or two and forget the pack... I think in order to make a run at pack depth, you need a good Dec and decent cold to stick around... even if we had a foot on the ground starting on Xmas, this week would have eaten it up by today, hopefully the 7th doesn't do what the last 4 storm threats have done and turn 40 and rain, this weekend was supposed to be something a week ago and now look... sucks for snow lovers but congrats nne, at least you guys are getting something, I'm sitting at 5", and half that came in Nov when I was in florida.

are we going to play the storm sig a week out, only to cut or marginalize airmass our way to 32.1* RN?? it seems to me that the model guidance has gotten worse over the years not better, and even looking at real time teleconnectors, which one would say, are favorable for something to pop, it breaks down last minute and suppresses or shreds, or cuts...we all know that alot needs to align for a KU or MECS, but ffs, it's like the every single time meme lately... thought I would get my birthday storm on the third but that now appears 40 and rain, well there's always the next week, until we get to mid January and only really a few good weeks of solid winter. Think it was 3 years ago, we did this same thing, and finally got a good one in February, and another one late March iirc, but that was it, sorry just venting, want my last winter here to yield something significant

congrats on the bonus last night who got some, I went to bed with grass cancel and woke to grass...oh well, still early, looking a bit promising for Jan onward

first year with chickens, seeing them react to the snow is funny, I wasn't here for the after Thanksgiving little snow so my first time seeing their reaction, I'm like wait until we have a good snowfall, a couple inches and they won't come out the run, gonna have to tarp it when it really snows I think, anyway final is 2" here, never really got going after the initial snowfall, looked good but peetered out

Just now, WhiteLawns said:

We only got about an inch in Torrington at 1000ft

really, where are you up east main or the other side? I've got 2 on the nose here and snowing pretty good again

started again as that line is collapsing south a bit, imagine this is what it's like to live in a LES area, snow just away from you and actually snowing hard, but you're noda, well not any more

WWA from Aly for tonight/tomorrow morning ice event, calling for a glaze to .10" ... I don't like the ice, I'll take white please instead, or just plain RN will do, funny how they say tenth, and while technically correct, anyone who's worked in machine shop or with very tight tolerance drawings with tell you that's a hundred thousandths and a renth is one ten thou, thought id share

that line needs to sink like 10 miles south for me to get going again, looks nice behind that too for a bit, good training echoes

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if u get a measurement when the accumulation is done that would be awesome, ill probably have like zero reports from Litchfield county for this one. sucks that you're leaving CT, i know what thats like and no snow anymore is ruff.

Latest radar. Don't like this band consolidating and moving just north of my area. 

it's stopped here for the time being but is still going just to my north good, I'll be submitting an official when it's done to Aly and on here too

eyeballing about 2" out there, was really ripping good around 4 when I got up and was just a coating, so most of this fell last three hours

radar looking a bit better than modeled but it be dry as a bone, so we'll see if we can squeeze an inch outta this, then focus on the mess that follows for Saturday and beyond, see if I can't get my birthday storm for the 3rd as well, it's been a while...

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Cold tomorrow on euro.  Sub freezing region wide.

wind to boot, deep winter without the white, at least it'll set the antecedent air for Fri, how long it lasts is in question tho

talking about 76-77&77-78, in these parts, data from the closest station, we had 90 and 130" respectively, so not so bone dry and cold, and alot of 77-78 came in the span of three weeks iirc, but we just had a fairly dry winter, can't recall the temperature anomalies I'm working on those historical stats, but 18-19 and 19-20 were very low snow totals, and 94-95 was well below average and frigid iirc again, was it 93-94 or 94-95 we had that long cold blast? also remember a pretty epic sleet storm during one of them winters

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Most forecast soundings showed a dry layer between the surface and 850mb so the column won't necessarily saturate immediately. ZR seems most likely based on the depth of the warm layer. Surface temps will likely warm through the night. Definitely could get icy in spots.

yeah the usual suspect areas of the valley along RT 8 will have the glaze and spun cars off the highway, seen it so many times, and this year we have a larger population of NY transplants, who seem more permanent and they don't know these spots and drive like it's the van wyck...

we've dropped to 25 here, and dews are right there, so we saturate right away as frozen unless it rushes quicker than expected, not expecting white but zr definitely on the table here

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Go in April. Worst month of year. 

I'd have to concur here also, always hated April, working construction really makes you hate it that much more, especially on new construction sites, where there's 2 x 12s planking in and out of the house

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree that December snows are certainly more festive, but March snow events are just better...especially anywhere remotely close to the ocean. But even regionally...I feel there are more high-end March events than there are December events.

I'd have to agree here also, depends on if you're a snow pack or snow accumulation type person, plus the festive nature and all... also, I'll continue to live vicariously through the forum here as I've been a member since the eastern days, although I've never met anyone here in person, almost like I know you all as some weather family, which I mostly check in during winter, funny how that goes