tavwtby

17 minutes ago, Heat Miser said:

Source? I've seen 45% in recent months, which means a significant number of people are still being impacted by a storm like this.

the wfh crowd, at least in my job, could have been doing it all along, and in my opinion the worst thing that could have happened, now they get to work with nobody watching what they do, and they take advantage, I think the only time I've not gone to work in snow was 93, and that was because they shut down... my job requires hands on, and I love going to work, despite travel, was it 12/07 that got us stuck for hours on 84? 3-6 shouldn't be a big deal for a commute especially when they put the treatment down ahead of time

I'd actually prefer an inside the BM track for mby, but that's just me, looks good region wide though for everyone to get in on some action

boxing day was the start of an epic run of roof collapse season and record roof rake purchase, iirc the lead up that season was similar with lack of action

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh ... I see.  yeah - good questions.

The operational version is a "souped up" ensemble member ...It has incorporated the best theoretical application of Meteorological physical equations -it's called the 'operational version'.   Most reliance is there.

The ensemble means have less integrated total tech manifolds, and/or employ more 'experimental' physical equations.  They are thus considered, 'perturbed' version members.  Individually, they are less likely to best the operational model ...particularly in shorter duration lead ( < 72 hours)... where as, the extended complete mean ( all members/ n-terms), offers stability - a kind of normalization that the operational falls victim due to chaos feed-backs cumulatively effecting accuracy way out in time. 

That's sometimes why you might hear[ responsible minded ] contributors ( lol ) refer to relying upon the ensemble mean in the extended, which by convention is anything out side of 5 days ...Relative to the pattern at hand, sometimes that is shorter or longer by a day in either direction.  I've seen patterns where operational versions nail things down pretty tight on D6 .. but I've also seen operational version have trouble as close as D3. The respective ensemble means tend to perform better in lesser confidence circumstances.

The last 5 years -worth of winters (imho ...) have not been particularly good operational version years ... probably owing to the compressed, fast flows.  Models don't tend to do as well in long X-coordinate, short Y coordinate flow types, which seems to be dominating the winter hemispheres as of late. 

thanks, as always very well articulated post and explanation, appreciate it.

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

No one should be "trusting" anything.   The models are varying like they should, and usually do...at this range.  Now sure what else needs explaining? 

Maybe we should start threads that are science concept, then, have a side-car thread linked to it that is an emotional catch-basin/support group. LOL.  J/k but yeah

I wanted an explanation on the GFS op v ensemble v mean, is the op run the most reliable, are there certain algorithms or parameters in common that make it the op, or is it simply the initial run and the other members are spit out in order, that's what I never knew and thought someone could explain... relevant to this signal, the GFS op is basically ots with the 7th, but has many members near the BM, so hence my curiosity.

and this is why we usually wait until the s/w or waves in question come ashore and get sampled more and into the algorithm, than trusting a KU at a range of 14 days, or even 7 for that matter, Wednesday runs will be the time to invest, hopefully clusters are still around the BM and SE ticks reverse course, but as history shows, being invested early can lead to let down and curtain closings... also curious why the GFS op shows basically nothing but Gefs shows a good cluster of members, is the op the initial run, a mean of members or the most reliable run? I've never gotten that, maybe one can explain it better to me, thanks.

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meanwhile I am looking forward to starting a thread on our day 13 megablizzard

funny you say that I was thinking the same thing, that does look like a monster slow mover...two weeks out

you can see the precip hitting a brick wall of dry air as it tries to expand, expect nothing from this, but congrats SNJ/MA

funny about this current storm and my likelihood of moving to north georgia, there's a WWA for the area I'm looking at planting flag, while we're hoping whale farts blow a dusting at us, thought that was funny

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

well a cutter can have a 750 mile swing and still be a cutter, so we don't notice the shifts.  But a coastal has like 200 miles to work with and we fight and cry and celebrate over a 10 mile shift, so...

this is true

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That is our lot here when it comes to snowstorms.  But a cutter bringing a rainer... a model 8-9 days out is golden most of the time, lol.

yeah, this does seem to be the case, models nail the cutters, but swing and miss on coastals, but this ones been there for a bit now and the pattern shuffle and now some real cold moving in seems like more a possibility than most recent ones.

plugging in the chicken water heater tonight boy, droppin like a rock...hens first night with big boy, Winsted made us bring him to the farm, funny thing is if we were still in Waterbury I'd be able to keep him, anyway at least it'll feel like winter for my birthday, that's a plus from the London weather we've had for a week...

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s all northern stream. We also don’t have a big western ridge yet when this storm happens so the flow is going to be pretty progressive…which will be competing with no downstream blocking. It will be a fast mover it looks like. 

Thanks, what I figured, seems to be a running theme with storms here lately, minus a few that were slow, cutoff, retrograde storms, it seems most out coastal storms are like 12 hr blitz types.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BM track seeming most likely 

pick somewhere in the middle, and we all enjoy the fun somewhat... I'm not wholely bought in until Wednesday, but I believe this one has the most going for it than the others, and for some time now it's been a sig, so we do pray... Will, are we looking at a phase cutoff here or Nrn or srn dominant? hard to tell at this point...

so I can't see the full Euro, but TT is showing the Op cutting and ENS showing a LP south of SNE, how confident are we about the 7th threat at this range? heights look good too, looks legit to me, again, a week out so we'll have to see how the week goes, but would be nice to see something before I head south mid month to start new vocation.. where it's like 60/70 degrees daily it seems.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The biggest thing of all posts I hate is to lose December. All these posts of it’s not supposed to snow in December that you see. Climo is bad in Dec. I hate that . That means you only have 2 months before spring . I don’t care who avg more snow in Morch than Dec. It is supposed to snow in Dec in SNE . And when it does , it has a better chance of sticking around than Morch in spring sun . And then to lose the first 7-10 days of Jan . The writing is on the wall for this winter . It will snow again yes.. but this will end up a winter we will like to forget 

it's winters like this, where we don't really have any pack until, for me anyway, mid Jan, where the longer into the season, the more I'd be happy with just a big one or two and forget the pack... I think in order to make a run at pack depth, you need a good Dec and decent cold to stick around... even if we had a foot on the ground starting on Xmas, this week would have eaten it up by today, hopefully the 7th doesn't do what the last 4 storm threats have done and turn 40 and rain, this weekend was supposed to be something a week ago and now look... sucks for snow lovers but congrats nne, at least you guys are getting something, I'm sitting at 5", and half that came in Nov when I was in florida.

are we going to play the storm sig a week out, only to cut or marginalize airmass our way to 32.1* RN?? it seems to me that the model guidance has gotten worse over the years not better, and even looking at real time teleconnectors, which one would say, are favorable for something to pop, it breaks down last minute and suppresses or shreds, or cuts...we all know that alot needs to align for a KU or MECS, but ffs, it's like the every single time meme lately... thought I would get my birthday storm on the third but that now appears 40 and rain, well there's always the next week, until we get to mid January and only really a few good weeks of solid winter. Think it was 3 years ago, we did this same thing, and finally got a good one in February, and another one late March iirc, but that was it, sorry just venting, want my last winter here to yield something significant

congrats on the bonus last night who got some, I went to bed with grass cancel and woke to grass...oh well, still early, looking a bit promising for Jan onward

first year with chickens, seeing them react to the snow is funny, I wasn't here for the after Thanksgiving little snow so my first time seeing their reaction, I'm like wait until we have a good snowfall, a couple inches and they won't come out the run, gonna have to tarp it when it really snows I think, anyway final is 2" here, never really got going after the initial snowfall, looked good but peetered out

Just now, WhiteLawns said:

We only got about an inch in Torrington at 1000ft

really, where are you up east main or the other side? I've got 2 on the nose here and snowing pretty good again

started again as that line is collapsing south a bit, imagine this is what it's like to live in a LES area, snow just away from you and actually snowing hard, but you're noda, well not any more

WWA from Aly for tonight/tomorrow morning ice event, calling for a glaze to .10" ... I don't like the ice, I'll take white please instead, or just plain RN will do, funny how they say tenth, and while technically correct, anyone who's worked in machine shop or with very tight tolerance drawings with tell you that's a hundred thousandths and a renth is one ten thou, thought id share

that line needs to sink like 10 miles south for me to get going again, looks nice behind that too for a bit, good training echoes

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

if u get a measurement when the accumulation is done that would be awesome, ill probably have like zero reports from Litchfield county for this one. sucks that you're leaving CT, i know what thats like and no snow anymore is ruff.

Latest radar. Don't like this band consolidating and moving just north of my area. 

it's stopped here for the time being but is still going just to my north good, I'll be submitting an official when it's done to Aly and on here too

eyeballing about 2" out there, was really ripping good around 4 when I got up and was just a coating, so most of this fell last three hours