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Wondering if maybe the GFS was a tad overdone with QPF in those areas. You get this random spike north with some of the higher QPF into the south coast but I mean I guess that is feasible. But its all going to come down to how much lift can be generated. This sounding looks pretty decent actually but IDK...I think any stronger lift is going to be more localized and with that it will be hard to sustain any kind of rates to readily accumulate, even with higher ratios. That's what is going to kill here...the overall rates are going to be very light and without the higher lift you still aren't going to produce great dendrites...except in the pockets of greater lift.

How long have those records been kept?

Yeah, the 100-200 year blocking event that winter as per some of the historical reconstructions was just too strong for the 75”+seasonal totals to our south to make it up to the NYC Metro era. A little weaker on the blocking and NYC could have approached the 1995-1996 all-time record. Same went for 2010-2011 which could have challenged the 75” mark around NYC had the snowy pattern persisted into February and March.

Measured 9” before I started shoveling (gonna have to get used to that, I ever buy a house and am not renting I’ll have a snow blower, at least it was a good workout ha!). Double digits is a given, but do we squeak out enough to hit a foot. Another overperformer, forecast was 5-10” for the warning area and 8” point and click forecast here in downtown where I am.

I suspect the winterstorm watch will be dropped to an advisory vs. upgraded to a warning. I was kind of surprised to see them hoist that headline yesterday when there really isn't much model support for a warning criteria snow out of this. We never even had a single nam run that nam'd us either. Looks like a general 2-4" event with maybe a few getting under some heavier banding that could go to 5"+. Looking forward to the thaw! Early December cold/snow almost always ensures a brown Christmas, that's why I wasn't too excited about it happening so early. Of course 1989 was wall to wall frigid the whole month of December and then when the calendar turned to January winter never returned.

That might be the storm that I remember as a very little girl on our farm in Sussex County, the storm that closed down Idlewild Airport for multiple days. We had a very, very long driveway that came off route 202 not far from the Benedictine monastery. My dad co-owned a construction company in Middlesex County and they finally sent their own commercial equipment to plow us out. It was like driving through a snow tunnel. Thankfully we had our own electric generator but we were starting to run low on canned food. This was traumatic for my mother who grew up in Newark and was used to being able to go to the corner store whenever she needed something. I used to think that Green Acres was a parody about my parents lol. After that she became a permanent canned food hoarder....

RDU officially recorded a TR of snow at 4 am so this will be official in the books.

That's an I-95 special right there. Even Boston gets in on the fun this time.

most of the world's Christian population celebrates Christmas in warm weather, if you think about it.

I'm pretty much done with this storm

I have 4 and thought that was a lot.

Yeah still not impressive. Quite possible all the models converge/compromise to a 1-3" type deal, which is still better than what the GFS is showing.

Went right over my house. Pretty intense for about 30 minutes. Picked up a quick 1.5" Had to drive home in it from AGC. Went from nothing to a mess in a few miles.

From @SACRUS

Need a lot more than that outside of the Cape/South coast

If anything, this GFS run might be indicatng the floor (1") while eliminating the complete whiff scenario.

I’d chug maple syrup for the Herpderp

Doubt it. 12z GFS finally got a clue and came on board, at least somewhat. 2-4” along I-95, 1” to the Lehigh Valley.

Gfs nice tick north lol .

I want that 0.3 contour over my house please.

It has definitely risen some, which is good, but we will see if it translates to colder later. I hope it does. We haven't seen any snow or ice here yet

Expand a bit more and give me at least 1” up here and I’m fine with it.

Maybe the GFS was right all along?