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Ya'll are gonna need to make sure your meds are filled for the chaos filled model madness coming this week

LOL @ who’s “confused”

pretty interesting AIFS ens for Sunday-Monday imo. Way more interested than it ever was for Thursday. GEPS really liked it too

Saw KDKA weather playing up lake effect and squalls from Wed Thru weekend. Also, the GFS looked loaded after day 10. Parade of juicy storms.

Euro is mostly rain for many. Torch at 925

More like rain

-EPO/+PNA actually leans dry, but it’s also a big dog pattern with that high-latitude blocking. With those AN precip anomalies in our region and the TN valley, I would be more inclined to think Jan 25-Feb 10 has big dog potential rather than cold and dry potential.

I like the -EPO and +PNA for down my way, but that might be too much of a good thing for some of you guys, especially the NW crew. Luckily for them it won't look anywhere near that good as the "warts" come into view as it gets closer. Pretty though.

In general I heartily agree. For every suppression risk we have 10x NW trend fails. I'm more worried about the general background state of dryness. As @NorthHillsWx had an excellent point earlier: if it can't rain even when it's warm, what makes us think it can snow? I got zilch yesterday in a warm, muggy airmass.

Odd, wasn't it? We always get pure snow every winter. Must be another Gfs error.

Truly think this is our biggest problem. The northern stream is very progressive right now, especially without better wave spacing, so we need something to jam up the flow a bit. Need some blocking over Greenland, a stout 50/50, or ideally both.

That’s one way to put it

What’s your final prediction for seasonal snowfall this year. I still think NYC ends up with 15 at most

I'm not throwing in the towel on winter just yet, but I have come to the conclusion that I may like snow a little too much to live here N and mostly East of Corbin usually do really well on these flow events, Corbin not so much, sharp cut off in London

Cold outbreaks usually trend less in intensity/extent at verification. Every once in a while that is a good thing for some of us. Last year during that epic Gulf snowstorm, E NC was originally forecast to get nothing as the system was suppressed to oblivion, but the last minute NW trend netted me 3 fluffy inches. The only cold outbreak that I can remember since I really started following weather that did NOT degrade to my knowledge was the Big Chill in late December 2017 early Jan 2018. That seemed to sneak up on me.

Noooo. Ji adds charm to this forum lol

Well there’s plenty of time..so maybe.

That’s 1-3” for SNE as is . This winter everyone here would strip down and jump in bed to bump and grind with that .

Very true. Just that at least for me…I don’t care what the lakes get(good for them), but it’s so isolated and mesoscale that it doesn’t really do anything for me, other than a quick glance when they show it on the news.

damn.

You sure? I know you a little nervous lol.

1/18 has been subtly trending a little better today....won't be that interesting unless it continues to do so for another couple of cycles.

Gotta start somewhere lol

I wasn't worried about ground temps. Lol Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

All we gotta do is change the name.