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It’s such a broken model. Compare it with 18z. It’s become sadly unusable like the Jma and Nogaps

So looking at the gfs. It has a s/w trod in the middle of the country. Hf and surface low right above Maine with some confluence. Let’s see how it fucks this up.

4 to 6 hours out it's ok. Not 40-48. Euro/GFS/CMC/NAM 3K at this range -in that order

Nice. The Gaspe is a bucket list trip.

The next 10 days have potential but the run to run nail biting is not the way to go. I'm just going to sit back and listen to those with greater knowledge than I and try to slowly learn a little bit more about the dynamics at 500mb. What more's a poor wx weenie to do?

We have a light dusting on the grass and roofs. There are a few places in my driveway that have turned white, but the roads are still looking uncovered. We now have some bigger flakes the largest of the night, but I do not think the roads are going to be a problem unless it does this for a few more hours.

HRRR was crap for the last front passage. Hopefully it’s right this time but not counting on it. .

Very light snow has been falling here for about 30-45 minutes... there's a thin dusting (<0.1") on some of the colder elevated surfaces. Radar has had no reflections over my house though (snow hole along I-140, just south of the "K" in Knoxville on the map)

Nope!!

Got the lightest coating on the cars here. Which is about all I expect from these very light showers passing through.

Sounds like fun Mark. Maine offers a 3 day deal(don’t have to get a full year registration). Our plan is to ride from our cabin in Cross lake/Sinclair area on Sunday the 15th, and up to River D Loupe in Quebec, and then on to do the Gaspe’ peninsula the following 3-4 days. And then back down through NB ,and back to our cabin in N. Maine. So we’ll see if that works out.

Yeah, it's going to be nothing here. The coastal low has left town.

Yeah, that heavy snow developed over Scott and Wise Counties and expanded.

It is flat out pouring the snow south of Kingsport to Colonial Heights. Everything is covered and probably close to an inch now.

Landlord paint on our snowpack.

I’m heading up the 16th. I don’t know if I’ll actually ride in Maine. I’ve got 3 days already planned in New Brunswick, Tuesday through Thursday that week. I’m not sure about buying a pass for one day in Maine. But I will spend a day visiting my friends in Presque Isle.

Been getting a nice snow shower for at least 45 minutes or so. Picked up probably a little over a half an inch now.

You didnt get any snow?? .

Also, like all model guidance, we can all feel different about the value of a particular model and/or product. Be it the lowly Nam or the Euro... We all, or at least I do, have our own favorites and routines...

RGEM has a crazy blob over north shore/ Cape Ann area. 12"+ in a very small area, but it doesn't look much like OES at first glance, unless it's on a south wind.

There’s light snow here too and a decent dusting even seeing it stick to the pavement and walkway here at the house.

I don't disagree in general... I'm pretty clueless as to these products are actually constructed, and yes the sample size is very small. But I've seen enough positive trends this cold season to use them for significant trends in the 7 to 10 day period. I may never really understand how the AI products are generated, but think they have shown value... That does not mean take them verbatim, but they should be used to for trends and support...

It's coming.

Light snow but big flakes here, just starting to stick to pavement.

good cause i kept the 26