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This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts.
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I love that it's always the happy hour GFS runs that somehow always dole out the most hope... I swear some government programmer put an Easter egg in the code to tweak the 18z GFS solutions towards colder/snowier just for us snow weenies lol
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Everybody is an expert until they aren't. Dendy won't see grass until April if not mid April but charts make him laugh. Hopefully not warm too quick as his basement makes him sick. Beware the dry slut
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00z GFS is a nice hit
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Nice improvement in the Euro - if I had to guess, this might be where we end up and I'd be happy with this...
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If you go back 5 days out til now the Euro AI consistency is excellent. However the ceiling is probably a low end warning or high end advisory event unless it trends stronger with the phasing (less likely given how close we are to event).
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.77 woof?
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trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before
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Presidents' day Snow potential
Franklin0529 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
Lmao -
Tony's snow map
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Euro bumped north. Lets get more bumps.
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Metsfan says it's coming
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Not as good as 12z but better than 18z. Mostly steady and consistent though
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lets first get the precip this far north than worry about precip types IMO more amped means more dynamics and upward motion in the atmosphere creating its own cold enough air (dynamic cooling) thats why it shows so much snow further south
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Been away all day. Have at it.
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plus consider the several inches thick Ice Glacier still cemented to the ground
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Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ.
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AI euro improved
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Its February. Whats up with this too warm to stick nonsense?
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Wrong. If snow can stick at 34F in April with heavy rates at midday, it can stick with moderate rates at 34F at night.
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this looks like a Central/South Jersey Special from Union County/Somerset etc. and points south of I-78
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It's supposed to be at night. An too warm to stick? Have you not been outside lately an seen the 8" of glacier everywhere lol
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Itstrainingtime replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Please understand, I wasn't being critical of you in any way. I don't do that. It was just ironic that the GFS jumped on to something it largely wanted no part of even when the Euro did. -
IF this comes back north, and that's a big if, it's going to be too warm for anything to stick.
