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Already getting gust to 25 or so.at times

12z Euro much closer but still heads ots

Heck yeah!

guess its time for me to renew aguacero for models, lol. but in the meantime, can you drop a hint?

Rather impressive to see the warm sector clear out so much. While surface CAPE is small and likely a narrow profile, there's okay lapse rates and respectable shear, which is probably why the DCAPE is decent. I'd still favor north of Mason-Dixon for any more scattered to widespread severe winds, etc.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1238 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MDZ003-501-502-509-510-VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508-WVZ050>053-055- 501>506-170045- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.261018T0500Z-261018T1200Z/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick-Page-Warren-Clarke-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Ruddle, Landes, Clary, Mill Gap, Chester Gap, Fort Ashby, Harrisonburg, Skyland, Grantsville, Buckton, Ranson, Seymourville, New Creek, Strasburg, Berryville, Sirons Mill, Sugar Grove, Romney, Winchester, Ingham, Kline Gap, Sulphur City, Liberty, Woodstock, Riverton, Bayard, Mountain Lake Park, Frostburg, Ellerslie, Masonville, Rawlings, Welton, Stuarts Draft, Monterey, Three Churches, McDowell, Brake, Keyser, Halfway, Oakland, Brandywine, Hagerstown, Hawkinstown, New Hampden, Spottswood, Moorefield, Headsville, Churchville, Rileyville, Front Royal, Paw Paw, Westernport, La Vale, Reynolds, Purgitsville, Wapocomo, Kitzmiller, Cedarville, Beechwood, Glen Echo, Petersburg, Cumberland, Bean Settlement, Berkeley Spgs, Luray, Albin, Mustoe, Possum Trot, Brady, Christian, Springfield, Shenandoah Junction, Points, Stringtown, Frenchburg, Wilsonia, Martinsburg, Oak Flat, Middleway, McNeill, Waynesboro, Fisher, Antioch, Smith Crossroads, Howellsville, Fairview, Hamburg, Mount Jackson, Piedmont, Cedar Grove, Ridgeville, Hancock, Hightown, Gainesboro, Kimball, Arco, Charles Town, Franklin, Bakerton, Alonzaville, Russelldale, Staunton, Shady Grove, Compton, Linville, Clover Creek, Magnolia, Bloomery, Mount Clifton, Cabins, Bentonville, Montebello, McCoole, and Millville 1238 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s are possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, central, northwest, and western Virginia, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

51.8° and it suddenly just fogged up. 1/4SM style.

Severe storm around state college looks healthy

I mentioned this the other day...some people here need to consider moving to the deep south...

Yea, I get it(saying now is peak) Like MRV said, I peaked out today and was like, damn that looks pretty good. The clouds and mist just kind of set the yellows off.

Saw that Iron Maiden announced they are headlining the Boardwalk Rock festival in May....:-)

Cool skies with the lapse rate showers

That's my take as well. I'm sure being slightly red/green colorblind informs my opinion . Yellows against a grey sky offers the best contrast. Love it.

Freeze Watch issued for the Mountain Counties.

See it ….. feeling it is no better …. As always ….

About 90 hours of rain if taken verbatim

No, we get that. I think we all feel that way to a point. Who doesn’t want big dog. Right .??? Big Dog anything weather related is exciting. But I have no issues with 2-4” either. I appreciate the aspect of it falling and making everything look beautiful.

What do you think about the possibility of unmodeled negative feedbacks eventually stopping the warming and thus causing at least the most extreme climate model solutions to end up being way overdone? Is this a realistic possibility?

12z euro ai = woweeee

probably after 5 more so now based on radar

Out here

Well except that wasn't the topic, if you follow the discussion back. The topic was existential crisis, which is not the same as progressive or even accelerating levels of impacts. ("Exist" of course being the root of "existential") To equate those two would require a third assumption - that the progression would either continue forever, or that it would reach a pace where adaptation is impossible. The first is physically impossible. For the latter - given the adaptability level of humans - our ability to live in both in the arctic and the extreme tropics, and the fact that earth has transitioned through *all* extremes several times in the past, with life still thriving, it will certainly not be happening.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up - Also a Freeze Watch in the western burbs. It's a warmish 69 here with dp 66 but that's about to go bye bye.