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Some would say there’s a decent signal at this range.

Gotta be soon considering almost every model except the GFS shows a big snowstorm for most of us!

Shame it's forecasted to be cloudy and dangerously cold since there's a great northern lights opportunity tonight.

Just for clicks .

can you post it a snapshot?

All obs this year for me are from Fallston, MD - 11/30 - T 12/2 - A little frz rain to start - trees and car glazed - but 35 and rain for most of event 12/5 - T (dusting from a few hours of flurries as dry cold death air ate any chance of anything else north of BWI 12/14 - 4” 1/2 - .2" (frontal passage snow squall dealie 1/17 - .7" 1/18 - .5" Running season total - 5.4”

So ugh the big question, when does gfs fold?

Textbook mouth of the bay tucked bomb. Would be an instant classic.

It's really the ideal setup for DC snow. We need that overrunning to really pump up our storm totals before the transfer. Feel like I had like 15" of overrunning in 2016 alone.

So for us Spartanburg, SC folk - the determining factor between ice and snow looks like a 30-50 mile range of the HP - it seems plausible at this point based on models, at its current placement the strength of the high will deliver CAD - just depends if the placement of the high will drive the system south. For us rednecks from Cowpens, is this correct? Thanks guy, long long long time lurker!

Need that vort energy in Wisconsin/Iowa to phase a little more with the southwest stuff before it moves east. Started doing that this run but not enough except for very light stuff into SNE.

EPS more amped up

I don’t know, but the tweet they made was just like 10 minutes ago. It may be that they’re avoiding today’s mods lol .

Couldn’t agree more. Great ratios, cold smoke, “lesser” complexity. And it piles up beautifully.

Didn’t see a thread ooops’ .

Banana High

That was based on last nights Run. I wonder if Today's will change their Tune.

These things always get further north than initially modeled. 8 out of 10 times we're more worried about sleet/rain than cold/dry

I think they’re generally pretty reliable, but there’s some concern this time that they may struggle because of how strong the high‑pressure system is expected to be. SGF noted that they will likely have difficulty since we have very few past cases with a similar setup. They’ve consistently been on the northern edge of the guidance, likely because they’re underestimating the strength of the high pressure.

Pic for reference. I’m not going to pretend to know what’s right…but I’d prefer the least confluent option possible.

Yes. That's my favorite setup. Snow just comes in like a wall and it doesn't stop. No wasting 4 hours on virga.

If we take into account *probable* ratios, the Euro now has 6-8" extending up to Berks and Lehigh. And I don't think this is done shifting north. Even as is, I think most south of I-78 would take and roll the dice for a different jack with the next storm systems

It only gives me freezing rain. WTF?

This is my favorite analog, maybe slightly less QPF laden, but the overrunning and a “light” primary transfer from S OV/TN valley being the key. Anomalously cold airmass as well much akin to PD2.

That’s a shift north with heaviest qpf over 0z