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Over/under 0.5 rumbles of thunder heard this week

I will do so. It should be available by around September 5th. In terms of the 400-year period, he's overgeneralizing this study, which deals with spring in the western Himalayas. https://lib.icimod.org/records/vsgz8-9bn78 He's also ignoring this information: "Our reconstruction showed cooler conditions during 1658-1681 CE, 1705-1722 CE, 1753-1773 CE, 1796-1874 CE, 1900-1936 CE, and 1973 CE. Periods with comparably warmer conditions occurred in 1600-1625 CE, 1633-1657 CE, 1682-1704 CE, 1740-1752 CE, 1779-1795 CE, 1936-1945 CE, 1956-1972 CE, and at the beginning of the 21st century." Also, with regard to an added explanation that the rock beneath the glacier collapsed, some arguments are already being made that this disproves a climate link. Instead, it reveals the complexity of the processes. Frost-wedging from repeated freezes and thawing contribute to such developments. The water that finds its way into even microfissures expands as it freezes. It then melts when temperatures warm. This repeated cycle eventually causes larger cracks and, ultimately, the rock to split or break. The warming climate in the high alpine regions of the Himalayas has accelerated this form of rock weathering. For what it's worth, the New York Botanical Garden has a large glacial erratic called the "Split Rock." The rock ultimately split from repeated freeze-thawing cycles. Here's a photo of it from last winter. In short, frost-wedging might well have increased the fragility of the rock beneath the glacier leading to its fracturing.

I honestly don’t look at the gfs anymore. Euro is out to sea.

September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 1.0 0.9 3.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 1.5 0.2

Ready to be slow roasted tailgating for the UAB game Thursday afternoon for 8pm game

They are tornadoes that get reported to NWS by spotters/law enforcement/etc but may not have been confirmed by NWS. Some are duplicates (I think), some turn out to be non-tornadic wind events.

August SOI is approximately in the top ten most negative for the last 100 years. Finished at -14. These are the -10 SOI or lower Augusts, rolled forward to December. The -12 to -16 SOI Augusts, 1953, 1987, 1993, 1994, 2002, 2006 produce the same result. Aug SOI is pretty strong as an indicator for February too. Very strong correlations for a cold SE/warm NW as you'd expect with any ENSO correlation.

I could see this being a warmer and drier than average September in these parts. That southern ridge just keeps on flexing itself.

Rain into NE PA

That did not age well based on latest model runs.

Prozac and alcohol

It was a very brief heatwave that occurred later in the month. 1921 on the other hand!

12Z UKMET and other global probably are of little value due to how tiny system is. But fwiw and for the record: 12Z UKMET initializes this as a TD: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 91.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 28.3N 91.0W 1013 20 0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 27.9N 92.2W 1012 19 1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 29.2N 93.5W 1012 20 0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

GSO’s average high is below 85 now, so reaching 95 is a huge deal!

Hope

Dew points have surged to the low 70s, hopefully the last time this year. Barring any surprises this will end up as the 4th DRIEST August on record in the Twin Cities.

yes

Top 10 day. 75/54.

Overall a dryish month across the state. Broadly speaking the southern half of the state did OK. The northern half, outside of the mountains had a very bad month, especially the NE quadrant. Very frustrating as we had made huge progress from D2/D3 all the way back to D0 or D1 but now we're right back in the hole. What makes it even more frustrating is that it's not like a massive ridge baking out the Southeast; there's been plenty of moisture around and several episodes of good lift, stalled fronts etc. For some reason cells had a hard time popping and those that did seemed to have a short lifespan.

@Birds~69 how you holding up with the Cecily Tynan retirement?

Don, your entire post 100% makes sense. Regardless, please post the August map if you get a chance. Even assuming one cooler than normal summer wouldn’t suddenly stabilize the glaciers, I want to see whether or not his supposed summer map is essentially a lie in itself. TIA. And on what the heck is he basing his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years?? Is this just made up out of thin air?

Yup...definitely want to focus where that sets up. It could be an active night tomorrow night, especially if activity across NY/NE PA is more widespread than modeled. That's some hefty elevated instability moving overhead later in the evening. When you have large MUCAPE building in and either weak forcing or already established convection...convection tends to either persist or continue blossoming.

No stupid snow maps to post when it comes to tropical