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With the temp issues in ETn but not so much in west or east of here, makes me think the mods are about to sniff out a handoff or energy transfer. Seems like when we get odd looking thermals up the valley, it’s a precursor to a low popping off the coast of SC. .

That is a potential horror movie waiting to be written.

is it suppose to be 67 degrees on January 27th?

As per a typical thing we need to avoid, sloppy phasing is at the top of the list. Need 0z to be cleaner like 12z was. Wouldn’t mind the 18z euro bridging the gap with something in the right direction, though it’s 6&18 runs never seem to

Latest Cfs2 forecast for February. I bet it gets wetter in future runs.

A reason I think you'll have a better chance with this thread, Ray ...is the error trends as of late considering all guidance. If that correction recurs, we're in business on this one. This event tomorrow into Friday morning, upstate NY up the ST L S was actually the original system that even the Euro was impressive for several ( not a couple ) cycles about 4 or so days ago... The Euro did not really do terribly better than the GFS - I don't know if folks are aware that the system in U NY is in fact the 15/16 cyclone space. Anyway, all these guidance were not wrong about the storm 'existing' - as we discussed earlier. The recognition of the pattern amplitude by many of us was actually spot on. Where the system takes place is the devil in this case, but ... it was actually en masse a reposition to the current strike region as outline above. It seems that's been a leitmotif this season from my recall, and that's been systems correcting west. While certainly true that we must consider every situation uniquely, there's certainly also wisdom in noticing whether the circumstances have changed appreciably so - if not... it's reasonable to assume that this Euro track will correct west in time. Having said all that ... we still are dealing with wave harmonics issues in lacking. The neg interference in the general circulation circumstance is only allowing narrow windows for amplitude at the cyclone/S/W scales. But as this one today up N of ALB is showing, they're still occurring nonetheless. We have a shot in this case...

lol we are a special group

Major bust in SE MI today. We had a 50% chance of snow, finally updated to a winter weather advisory late afternoon. Will probably end up with 3-5" in the metro area. Models did terrible with this.

thanks friend!

We’ll grab some paste prior to possible powder

lol your joking right. What always happens on the crossroads runs?

Pffft you wouldn’t dare

I agree, this run was noise.

It's nothing to jump over at all. We are just noting the changes, which are small and something to watch for.

Show off.

2-4" for this area east ORH even before whatever comes up the coast. Nice arrival time for the coastal too, right around or before kickoff.

Don’t remember the snow at end of the month or February 85 at all either. If anyone has info on how that cold shot ended….snow??? I would be interested to know. That cold shot had the holy grail of -40 850 temps into the upper lakes. Still remember the maps.

Fair, I see what you're getting at. I blew things out of proportion. I'll be better next time.

AI GFS bumped NW…OP did not.

I am def president of the janky back club

Yeah nice bump NW on GFS AI Interesting

That storm but it lasting 2-3 more hours would make me happy for the rest of the season

Agree. Would like to see the 18z Euro and especially EPS step in the right direction.

Yup. Just gotta watch if that continues or gets better on 0z

Not bad at all for 4 to 5 days out