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  2. Snowedin
    Let’s keep the love train going right through Stankvember and Dewcember. Those white claws and natty lites ain’t gonna sip themselves!
  3. Mrs.J
    I think you are correct on that. This is nothing like the past two summers here. I am happy for this nice steady rain coming in as we put down lawn patch yesterday in hopes that this rain would pan out.
  4. ChescoWx
    A pretty unsettled weather week on the way with shower chances increasing later today and becoming likely tonight into tomorrow. No washouts except for most likely tomorrow. Tuesday and Thursday look to be the relatively driest days before rain chances increase again to close out the work week. Temperatures this week are close to normal for the start of August.
  5. ChescoWx
    A pretty unsettled weather week on the way with shower chances increasing later today and becoming likely tonight into tomorrow. No washouts except for most likely tomorrow. Tuesday and Thursday look to be the relatively driest days before rain chances increase again to close out the work week. Temperatures this week are close to normal for the start of August.
  6. annunciated
    annunciated changed their profile photo
  7. GaWx
    I fully realize that the 30 year climo period available during 1997-8, just like at the time for any winter, always has to end prior to that winter for obvious reasons. There’s no choice. But once one gets further into the future, a more appropriate 30 year period to use as a basis for the analysis of anomalies for any winter is imho the 30 years most centered on that winter. Otherwise, in a warming climate using a 30 year period that’s prior to that winter is always going to bias that winter to look warmer than it really was vs the best centered 30 year climo. So, I strongly disagree with you on this and I’ll leave it at that. I don’t expect for you to agree with my thinking here. That’s fine as there’s nothing wrong with that. These are solid debates, which I enjoy, rather than them being arguments/throwing cheap shots.
  8. Stormlover74
    Would be surprised if Mt holly doesnt issue flood watches at least for nw nj. They can't handle more than a couple inches
  9. Met1985
    Yes sir!
  10. Mike Cycle
    Hi All, occasional lurker and Chester County resident here. I have done a deep dive on Coatesville 1 SW's history, working through the 530-1, the monthly paper records and property deeds for observers Gordon, Pyle and PECO. I then compared the record of station changes with the breakpoints identified by NOAA/NCEI and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST). Claude helped with the graphic. There is remarkable agreement between the history of changes at 1 SW and the breakpoints detected. edit: The HOMR record for this station, (presumably pulled from the 1956 530-1 (itself likely pulled from the B44s)) is flawed.
  11. wncsnow
    Yeah it just trained over them all night. Drought is on life support now for most areas
  12. MANDA
    If the tropics showed any sign of life I'd be concerned about something sneaking into the southwest Atlantic and having a blocked escape route but tropics look to remain quiet for the next 7-10 days. Depending on how far west the ridge can flex this pattern could be one that produces above normal precipitation. Keep the weak trof axis along the Appalachians or over the Ohio Valley and the ridge off shore and a deep southerly flow could aid heavy rainfall, depending on synoptic setup.
  13. weatherwiz
    I'm shocked there aren't flash flood watches out or flood watches. I bet tonight into tomorrow evening has more reports of flooding than the past few setups combined.
  14. bluewave
    The climatology period for the 1997-1998 super El Nino was 1961-1990. They don’t have 1941-1970 climatology maps on that site for 1972-1973. There also isn’t an 1951-1980 option for 1982-1983. So I used the closest time period that they offered at the site.
  15. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  16. WxUSAF
    Yes. Probably @high risk can update us on that timeline but I thought it was like the end of August at one point?
  17. IronTy
    Gross day out at DCL. Misty rain and a cloud forest up at 3k ft. At least it's cool. Packing up to head back to Calvert, sounds like it's more gross down there.
  18. GaWx
    I assume you’re referring to the NE US. Regarding the US as a whole, nothing is even close to a certainty, especially this far out. Even the NE is far from certain though cold there is admittedly quite unlikely. And the SE actually had a downright cold super-Nino winter: 1957-8.
  19. yotaman
    Had a brief shower this morning amounted to just .05". That made it incredibly humid. It is 85/79 at 10:27 am.
  20. Terpeast
    I think it’s almost a given that the east coast winter will not be a cold one. For the MA, I’m thinking 2-4 AN vs 1991-2010 climo, warmer north and a bit cooler south. STJ will be very active, launching one storm after another across the south. If we can time even marginal cold air with one of them, we could score big. Most of them will probably be rainstorms.
  21. yoda
    Looks like its already going to be wrong looking down south
  22. Met1985
    That severe drought should be eroding away quickly.
  23. vortex95
    Tropical sounding. Lapse rates all below 5.5 C/km, but that's ok b/c the deep layer high dew points make up for it, and just a small amount of heating sets things off. That's why the convective temp is so low, as noted. K-index 38 and PWAT 2.16", so there is your juice! 0-6 km shear 31 kt so close to support supercells. Low-level turning on the hodograph not bad either.
  24. George001
    Yeah it will be warm. The question is more the magnitude of the warmth as that will make a big difference in terms of how much of the precip is wet vs white. There is a big difference between say +2 AN and +5-6 AN.
  25. frd
    May not be huge rains, but the signals are there for continued active weather in our area. Even at day 6/7 from the WPC along with machine learning severe threats.
  26. CoastalWx
    Let’s skip the lakes region and get Seymour another 4”.
  27. Today
  28. GaWx
    Chris, The following is a better way to look at how 1997-8 did: using the more appropriate/well centered climo base of 1981-2010 instead of 1961-90, which is earlier than 1997-8. Using the earlier, colder 1961-90 makes 1997-8 anomalies ~1F warmer than they actually were in many areas as you know vs the available best centered climo of 1981-2010: still mild in NE but not as mild and SE NN:
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