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I think the proper term was September ends summer...........

The perfect storm.

Yeah the gusts are already approaching 40 mph

WPC analyzed the low as 995 mb at 15z: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=sfc

Definitely looks to be intensifying at a decent clip, core looks way healthier than even a few hours ago

Nam keeps going through Monday

It just became quite gusty outside and I’m way up in Wantage. My daughter and her college friends are headed to OC MD this evening. They’re supposed to go to Oceans Calling tomorrow. Today’s lineup was canceled. I highly doubt tomorrow’s show will happen. The high tides have been beating up the beach there for days now.

Leaving Bethany now and headed to Rehoboth We shall see! who knows lol they’re busy setting up stages per beach cams

Should have recon data in an hour or so, NOAA2 took off a little while ago

Correct did that at 06 z too. Looks like there's a low out there ~ 995 mb, replete with a bent back warm front and dangling cold boundary, yet the NAM-aramadingdong thinks it's a 985 Cat 1 hurricane.

995mb at 12z per WPC

37 degrees at 7 am. .56" total rain last 5 days.

3k has 3” PWATS and saturated 0C at 500mb near the center.

Did the NAMS initialize way too strong or am I making things up? I doubt this is currently a 988mb storm.

That's what it does

3k shouldn't be used in this situation

yeah in the NE forum they are all tossing it-saying it thinks it's purely tropical which is wrong

Some of the models taking this thing down to a sub 980mb system. Will be interesting to see what this winds up doing. Some areas going to get some nasty winds and rain.

The 3K NAM initialized with the low pressure system at 987. That means, right now, the low pressure should be at 987. I don't know where to go to see the current pressure, but I doubt it's below 1000.

There's irony this hour ... because while I essentially agree that this was never tropical this, that, nor the other d-drip worthy ...the NAM is actually attempting to perform one of the most rapid conversions to purer tropical core and even RI cycling than has ever been observed or even thought plausible in the Terran physical manifold. LOL

With a track like that , coastal flooding will be major indeed.

Rumor is strong that the rest of Ocean's Calling will get cancelled..

Broadly conceptualizing ... Baroclinic systems expand there influence due to frontal synoptic forcing... and temperature gradient related mechanics. Barotropic tropical systems are by physics drawn to core ... this thing's going for Category 3 intensity with that NAM look there - probably a erroneous solution.

Pretty typical meh modeling on this system. Either way looks like some dreary weather this weekend. But been back and forth between light stuff and heavier amounts for days and even inside 48hrs it’s bouncing around.

Brutal for LI/CT shoreline and NJ