Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Warm Nino 1+2 pattern hitting, despite strong decadal seasonal trend for warmth out there
  3. mitchnick
    Unfortunately, in this hobby, no bias = no hope! Lol
  4. kdxken
    Let's go high res! Stupid rain.
  5. kdxken
    20s and 30s at night that's what everyone was saying. I can't find a link but I'll repeat it all day.
  6. jlauderdal
    Seems to be winding down, perfect timing to wipe out an entire summer day.
  7. nrgjeff
    Local outflow boundary in June. Thats an easy decision to chase after work. 2% strong!
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty above average temps Jun 30 - July 6 on 12z EPS
  9. SACRUS
    Today's Highs: ACY: 88 BLM: 87 New Brnswck: 87 EWR: 86 PHL: 86 LGA: 85 TEB: 84 TTN: 84 ISP: 82 JFK: 82 NYC: 82
  10. ineedsnow
    18z GFS is just a bit different also who said through mid July
  11. Today
  12. andyhb
    Large tornado in progress just east of KVWX heading for Fort Branch IN.
  13. Prue11
    Picked up a whopping .01” from the showers that just rolled through
  14. WxWatcher007
    Blue skies, blue skies.
  15. NEG NAO
    and as the 12Z and 18Z NAM shows the difference in different areas - no consistency - thats why Don's forecast of a 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches without saying where is the best way to go.......
  16. Yesterday
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO.
  18. Picard
    They keep showing a split with a screw zone in the middle. It's a riot to see 2.5" and 0.2" within 50 miles.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have a bias...it's human nature. If anything, I have overcompensated the past couple of years and it's probably at least in part why I didn't go as cold as my narrative implied last year when I clearly should have.
  20. michsnowfreak
    I consider myself to have a lot of weather knowledge...but i dont forecast. Definitely respect those who do so, particularly without much bias. I have a preference, not a bias. I worry that preference would create a bias if I tried to forecast, so I dont. Say its mid winter and every model shows warmth the next two weeks. I know its going to be warm, so instead of trying to find something to say all models will be wrong, or try to find a reason why it will be warm when i thought it would be cold.....no...im going to deal with it, see if we will squeeze snow out of it, and look beyind the warm spell.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stop interpreting this guidance in such absolute terms because it's just that .....GUIDANCE. No forecaster worth a damn should be ripping and reading it, but rather using it as a tool.
  22. 512high
    Nice pic
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you actually look at the JMA model, it actually has the warmest pocket of water pretty near where the east-based composite has it, but it's extending the El Niño very far to the west so that it has more of a Modoki look. It's actually similar to 2023-2024 did, but the forcing is a bit east, so it's a Modoki El Niño forcing rather than MC. That to me is a bit harder to dismiss as "stock ENSO bias". Go and check out the June 2023 forecast and it looked different. the fact that the CANSIPS is doing the same thing adds to the intrigue. Now, do I think that the seasonal mean will look like that with an El Niño this strong? No, I don't...too much wamth too far east. But do I think that we can get a month to look like that in the back half of the season? You bet I do-
  24. michsnowfreak
    Exactly. Sometimes the difference between anamolies and absolutes get lost in the translation. A low snow winter in detroit is still snowier than a snowy winter in Albuquerque.
  25. michsnowfreak
    This is whats interesting to me. I fully expect a milder than avg winter here, as ive said multiple times. However, the fact that a few models are showing cold, and even the milder models aren't anywhere near a furnace, is a red flag for those (we know who they are) who assume super nino means super furnace. Remember, these same models are all showing the strong/super nino, and nino climo is already in these models, are not showing blazing warmthm
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's crazy how people are triggered by the mere mention of certain seasons as analogs....,most of us have been at this for like 20+ years, you would think at some point they would wrap their mind around how analogs are used. If you have noticed, any seasonal met worth a damn often uses an assortment of snowy, cold seasons AND warm seasons featuring a dearth of snowfall. Just because the forecasters deems a season to have enough value to warrant its' inclusion does NOT imply a replica season in its' entirety is being forecasted. The most glaring and detestable flaw I continue to see amongst weather circles is the inability to perceive any nuance, and constantly view everything as black and white. Social media isn't helping this issue, rather it's exacerbating it. The tweets that are engineered to draw attention to the 2009-2010 analog are the problem, but that clearly that isn't being done or implied here.
  27. mitchnick
    Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise. But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.
  28. NEG NAO
    compare the 12Z NAM to the 18Z NAM and you will see it has no idea how much and where the rainfall will occur IMO using models this far out will not verify. It will be all about now casting tomorrow
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...