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Sandy, whatever you chose to call it at at landfall, made landfall over southern NJ. That's more the Mid-Atlantic than NEUS. I was confined things to a hurricane center crossing the New England coast or Long Island. We've had lots of side swipes from hurricanes in the NEUS, but for a direct landfall, sensible wx impacts are typically much greater, esp. for wind and power outages.

This is like after 20 minutes too fwiw

Lightning strikes nearly 20 miles from any precipitation. Very cool. Should get a great light show in about an hour.

I mean are we not counting Sandy on a technicality?

feels like a lot of 80s this March, no?

Severe to the east near Chicago, severe to the west near Des Moines. Here in the middle, crickets.

yeah that would be sick

Easy inch plus here fucking never heard something like this before

It's now been over 34 years since the last hurricane landfall in New England or LI. This is the longest gap by a considerable margin for the region going back to 1851. If you told me in 1995, the next 30 years would be the most active Atlantic TC period on record, but no NEUS landfalls, I would have said, "NO WAY!!!" Yet, it has happened. NEUS may be more vulnerable in "quiet" periods dictated by the AMO, such as 1970-1994. 3 landfalls then, but that doesn't explain the record 5 in 22 years 1938-1960 during the active period 1926-1969. One reason could be that during "quiet" periods, the MDR being less active, and more "home grown" storms that form closer to the E Coast, increasing the odds of a direct hit.

The big problem is these days, there is no accountability for such forecasts, and those that make them will do everything to gaslight to tel you their forecast actually did verify or there is significant skill. I find this disingenuous and unethical. That doesn't mean LR forecasting should not be done or researched, but it is the classic "putting the wagon in front of the horse" here. Also, when you post on social media and want to be taken seriously, one should avoid levity, "flowery" language, and showing implied bias such as the post above ("who's excited for winter"). That is not being objective and scientific. Excited or not is irrelevant to the actual forecast and its skill! On moderated groups like here where it is wx weenies and the like, levity and implied bias are ok b/c we implicitly understand how things are for wx and forecasting and are a niche group, What we post is not meant for public "consumption" b/c they have no clue as to the nuances and idiosyncrasies of the profession, among other things!

Actually, 1972 qualifies as well. Followed two cold ENSOs, high solar, negative AMO, negative PDO. 1968 and 1972 are the best matches on the variables - +ENSO, following two -ENSOs, high solar, -AMO, -PDO.

Nice watch

18z NAM at least salvages Wed afternoon but the garbage slams in pretty soon in the evening.

The El Ninos following two cold ENSOs (not 1 or 3 or more or many neutrals), with high solar are relatively rare - 1968. 1982. 1997. 2009. 2018 each El Nino follows two cold Ensos in a row. Only 1968, 1982, 1997 are relatively active for solar. PDO is negative in 1968 with AMO negative. Both look likely/possible, we've got the cold flipped C from Iceland to all the way around West Africa. Stupidly cold in March as a blend but I doubt those three years will work. Conceptually, you have: 2026: -AMO, -PDO, El Nino, High Solar, after two cold ENSOs for this winter. That's like 1968, next closest is 1982/1997/2009/2018. Anti 2026: +AMO, +PDO, La Nina, Low Solar, after two warm ENSOs for the winter: That's 1995, 2016, 2020 Would look like this in concept - probably not as severe in reality. Somewhere between 2023-2024 and the above image is my guess.

Models forecasting two sig ZR events for NNE this week. It is quite rare to have sig ZR events this late in season in the NEUS (I'll let CoastalWx explain why, IF he knows! ), and in April it is practically unheard of. Please share any events that come to mind. This one from early March 1991 in NY state is the only "big" one in March in the NEUS in recent decades I know of. 3/3/1991 Freezing rain commenced over central and northwestern New York state late on this day and by the time it ended on the 4th, one to two inches of ice had accumulated in many places, resulting in the most costly natural disaster in the history of New York state up to this time. 19 counties were declared state disaster areas. At. one point, nearly 325,000 customers were without power and some did not get power back until the 16th. Storm damage exceeded $375M.

Can't wait for 80/62 tomorrow on the last day of March.

Well, you ain't seen nuthin' yet. Wait until Tue aftn! At least Weymouth should get some elevated TS.

got that right! same here in SE Mich. was messing around out back most of the evening mimicking my neighbors' yardwork (sans the work) and it feels legit sticky. currently 68/55 at PTK

Yeah, 00z HRRR says “what storms tomorrow?”. Literally nothing but a few showers and then storms south of the MI/IN/OH line in the evening.

The time has arrived to award the 2025-26 Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest trophy to @Cobalt. This snow season was a throwback to the good old days temperature-wise, as December, January, and February were not only each below 1991-2020 Mid-Atlantic normals, but even below 1871-2025 Mid-Atlantic averages. However, snowfall was limited by the now famous "snowcrete" snow/sleet storm of January 25th and near misses in late January and late February. Still, we did receive enough at the four airports to change the leader five times. Our 2022-23 champion @LittleVillageWxhung tough early on with a repeat of his lowball snow forecast that produced victory three years ago, but snowcrete then propelled@rjvanalsbriefly into the lead until final totals confirmed that @T. Augusthad taken command. T. August held on until February 23rd when @Chris78took over after early and late February snow. Headed into March, it appeared that he might win, but March 2nd and March 12th snow reports gave a brief lead to @Roger Smith. Alas, the initial BWI snow report for March 12th was inaccurate because despite hourly reports that strongly suggested that measurable snow had fallen there, the preliminary BWI snow report showed only a trace. When that report was corrected to 1.0 inch, @Cobaltsurged into the lead. Stunningly, we then learned that Roger had passed away on February 24th. Knowing Roger as I did, I am wondering if he sent down a message to the BWI weather authorities that their March 12th snow report was off-base and that he did not want to win the contest posthumously under false pretenses. In any event, it was a well-deserved victory for Cobalt, and Roger will have to wait for his next earthly sojourn to win his Mid-Atlantic trophy, even though he claimed many other successes during his long and illustrious forecasting career.

Yea, I have been saying that I don't see this is an uber-El Nino that will fry the east. Generally agree, though haven't delved deeply into analogs at this early juncture. 2002 is one I speculated on.....just conjecture right now.

That -WPO Fall loading pattern in SSTA really hit, too.

solid early summer-like evening.

Wednesday is worth keeping an eye on. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html