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NYC will be just 2 degrees warmer than the record high temp on this date. Lots of records are forecasted to fall in Florida feel bad for vacationers.

Always is. I hate how uncertainty always needs to be mentioned tbh. That should be a baseline given to anyone and everyone following weather. There are never certainties. As much as we would like there to be. There are only probabilities. What makes this one more interesting than usual is the -AO already in place prior to it happening this time. That leaves the door open for it to quickly couple and eliminate the typical lag time. I'm getting pretty confident the split is going to happen. Ensembles are getting increasingly on board. Plus we've already had the precursor pattern for it. Not to mention that the timing shown on guidance is in line with when you would expect to see one after the precursor pattern happens.

We had no work on Monday due to snow removal, but got back to work on Tuesday. Here's my post snow water hauling adventures video... Be sure to adjust video quality to 1440p if possible.

6z Nam def trending North with precip amounts

-13° this morning. Rabbit was out eating birdseed from underneath my bird feeder this morning. Which surprised me.

0.4 but I was expecting-2. The fakers will get theirs tonight

Correct lol

lots of piss and shit on the block that could use a dusting

Flurries in Rosedale and Honaker. And so it begins!

Take 2 weeks off.

Oh boy all the local mets are pulling totals around here to 0-1 ha that would be funny if the nam is right and then they have to back track and raise the totals up big. They clearly arent looking at the NAM from 6z.

It only went down to 3 F. They were calling for -4.

ULL stays neutral longer . Also go time. The model whiplash should be crazy today. .

The nam is always the one to pick up on changes short range too

Wondering when the last time all of NC was under a WSW? I don't remember it.

Cold has been pretty tame here on the shoreline. BDR has 2 single digits lows this month. Looks like they hit 9 this morning for a low.

the euro is a long range model. Watch short range models now. GFS euro no need to even watch them now

It was never ours since the GFS has shown it from the beginning to be weak and OTS in both 6z & 12z yesterday. I wander if the system coming out of western Canada has anything to do with it.

Those will all change by the time we get close…just like this current system did, the takeaway is at least something is there. Details TBD.

Indeed my friend and I love it when you drop in

Static v dynamic modeling- dynamic takes into account the atmospheric moisture in any given area within the map, which can have vastly different ratios based on temperature, upper and lower level dynamics, etc. 10:1 simply normalizes the data set for all locations within the map having equal atmospheric moisture content. Think about being at the top of Beech Mtn during a hypothetical "normal" snowfall event, v downtown Hickory. Both locations are getting snow, but the air temp at the top of Beech is 15 F, and the air temp in Hickory is 29 F. 10:1 basis assumes the snow water equiv is equal at both locations (we all know it is not); Kuchera takes the temperature differential and other factors into account, and adjusts on that basis- the term "basis" simply means normalizing the data set to provide context based on given parameters.....10:1 (y)*(amt of modeled precip) solves for x (total snowfall) Kuchera has more variables factored in to reflect the dynamic when solving for x- in English- there can be many different ratios within the same given map

So back to the La Niña “front loaded” pattern we had in December? That wasn’t too bad for us.

This is one of your very BEST! I wanna be fully Snowciopathic, too! Damn I love this! I love ICE like some people love g-d. Ice is the best!

Ugh. Those short range models have me nervous. The 6Z Euro still looks good, though.