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After last year’s dog turd of a winter, I am satisfied with this years experience.

If we had weather chats through those 50 we would have bitched through most of them. [emoji2375]

Yes, by Sunday it will be in Maine. Lol.

But this point is actually a great example of what I meant by "when all we care about is how much snow falls in our yard it might not align with verification scores". Yes the AIFS had multiple runs in the day 5-8 range with HECS snowfall results for our area. But, those results were real, just displaced about 150 miles to the northeast. And no other model, at those ranges, were even close...the GFS didn't start showing those crazy snow totals until like day 4 out. So when compared to all the other models, which didn't have an HECS anywhere at all...the AIFS which had it but displaced a small amount too far southwest, the AIFS was by far the closest to the truth (the less wrong) model in the day 5-8 period. We look at them all wrong, in that we expect them to be exactly right at a range that there is almost no chance they will be. The AIFS showing a HECS somewhere in the northeast at all day 5-8 was a win for it...but we think it was wrong because the big snow ended up not over us.

Erika about slid off her chair after he dropped the GFS getting pulled in the 8th analogy. "As someone said". Good one.

You live by climo and die by climo, beggars can’t be choosers. For some perspective we have 50+ seasons on record of below 30” at ORD. https://www.weather.gov/lot/Chicago_seasonal_snow

Also an A doesn’t mean we met our expectations, it means we greatly exceeded them. So a C+ takes into account the November surprise and the sputtering CAD’s of January. All decent.

I think the Euro OP will be better than its previous run

Not melting that fast north of the city, looks pretty similar to where it was Tuesday outside the most sun exposed surfaces. Even still some ice/snow on road and drive way. Of course once temps get into the mid/upper 40’s next two days that will change. Past storms like Jan 2016/Feb 2006 melted out much faster. Biggest factor is temps not sun angle.

Verification scores don't lie. However, when all we care about is how much snow ends up on our lawn, that doesn't always necessarily correlate to some hemispheric h5 or MSLP verification score! Also, sometimes we see a model leading the scores chart and think "that means it's right" when it really means it's slightly less wrong than the others.

Precip is way farther north than forecasted.

Hopefully AI is right for all next week. 4-6" of snow on Monday and 70 and sun in spots come Friday.

I would have liked to have seen the constitution he carries in his car. At least that would have been a consolation payoff. But we know he doesn't actually have one.

I’ll be stuck on March soon.

Off and on, though better "at times" imho. But you never know if this is one of those times. Would prefer the AI and operational to agree.

My bad. Appreciate you clarifying. I agree with what you're saying now that I understand.

Denver is on track for its second warmest winter on record. Even wilder, Phoenix is demolishing its winter record and Winter 2025-2026 will be warmer than spring 1917 and as warm as spring 1965.

Meh I mean it showed us getting 20”+ for this past weekend for multiple runs at this range so

He's cherry-picking to fit his narrative. Notice how all but one of his shots show only the yardstick and about a square foot around it?

Wow it’s been that long since it’s gotten that cold there? Not even the 60s could do it? Horrifying.

I'd be excited if it wasn't just AI. I mean, have they really been as good as advertised?

Live on for another 6hrs

Can't go any better than a D without a single grass topper event after Dec 7th. Would easily be F- yet again without the awesome start to winter.

If we get a snap-back blizzard after the heat, I hope it comes after a couple of cold days. We don't want the snow melting on warm roads. Snow covered roads are a necessary for our enjoyment.