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Dominant indices Jan 15-Feb 4:- moderate to strong +PNA- strong to very strong -AO- moderate to very strong -EPO- moderate to strong -WPO- so one of the greatest 3 week long combos of +PNA, -AO, -EPO, -WPO on record- strong to moderate MJO phases 6-7 and weak phase 8- neutral NAO averaged out with no strong anomalies

Considering my town plows at 0.5" ... Seriously though, a general 1-3" should be what most people get. Some lucky few will pick up a couple more

Just give me an inch of snow in the metros. It'll blow around and look like deep, deep winter.

You know how this works. As we get closer, errors in previous simulated outcomes get incrementally corrected until we arrive at the actual outcome, which is yet to be determined.

Possibly, but I'm also factoring in the fact that we are aging and our remaining lifetime is less. So most of don't have another 50 years or more.

Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (2008) NYC: 68 (2008) LGA: 69 (2008) JFK: 67 (2008) Lows: EWR: 5 (1995) NYC: -4 (1895) LGA: 4 (1995) JFK: 7 (1995) Historical: 1807 - It was the famous "Cold Friday" in the Midwest and South. The temperature did not rise above zero in Ohio and Kentucky. (David Ludlum) 1828: Plum trees blossomed in South Carolina six weeks early as the south was enjoying one of their warmest winters on record. Weather patterns would change however by late March. An inch of ice would form on the St. John's River. The Six-Mile Creek in northern Florida recorded a temperature of 26 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1835: A snowstorm dumped 6 inches in Williamsburg and as much as 20 inches at Virginia Beach. Over a foot of snow fell in Norfolk. (Ref. Virginia Weather History) 1856: Oswego, New York: A rare February lake effect snowfall buries the Oswego area with 6 feet of snow. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1899: A second area of low pressure moved in to DC from the south and dumped an additional 2 to 3 inches of snow bringing the snow cover in DC up to 8 inches. (p. 51 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) 1933: The temperature fell to -90° at Oimaykon, Russia, the coldest temperature ever in Asia. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1978 - A massive nor'easter buried the cities of the northeastern U.S. Storm totals included 18 inches at New York City, 16 inches at Philadelphia, and 14 inches at Baltimore. The Boston MA area received 25 to 30 inches in "The Great New England Blizzard" and the mayor outlawed travel in the city for an entire week. (David Ludlum) Boston, MA recorded 27 inches of snow in the greatest snowstorm in New England's modern history. Traffic was at a standstill for five days. Motorists had to abandon their cars and take shelter with private citizens and in churches. The Boston Globe went undelivered for the first time in 106 years. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: Low pressure dumped heavy snow over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. The storm moved out the next day and left 12.4 inches of snow at Norfolk, VA, their biggest snowstorm since December 1892. Elizabeth City, NC was buried under 20 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1982: A deep upper level trough combined with arctic high pressure across the central Plains brought record low temperatures from the Midwest to the southern Plains including: St. Cloud, MN: -33°, Alamosa, CO: -25°, La Crosse, WI: -22°, Topeka, KS: -21°, Wichita, KS: -21° (broke previous record by 13 degrees), Rockford, IL: -20 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1987 - Brownsville, TX, was deluged with seven inches of rain in just two hours, and flooding in some parts of the city was worse than that caused by Hurricane Beulah in 1967. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Arctic cold invaded the south central and eastern U.S. Sixteen cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced a foot of snow at Arcade NY in three hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Forty-one cities in the western U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Lows of -30 degrees at Ely NV and -33 degrees at Richfield UT were all-time records. Morning lows of 31 degrees at San Francisco CA and -15 degrees at Reno NV were records for February. Logan Canyon UT was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 54 degrees below zero, and Craig CO hit 51 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - A second cold front brought more heavy snow to the high elevations of Oregon, with 12 inches reported at Sunset Summit. Ten inches of snow blanketed Crater Lake and Mount Bachelor. Heavy snow also blanketed northeastern Nevada and parts of Washington State. In Nevada, up to a foot of snow was reported between Spring Creek and Lamoille. Stevens Pass WA received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2003: Feb. 6th-7th: Low pressure passing through North Carolina brought 3 to 8 inches of snow to the region. The heaviest amounts fell in a swath from Fredericksburg to Southern Anne Arundel County. An area of low pressure moved into central Illinois during the morning, continuing northeast into Indiana later that day. Thunder snow was reported from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin during the early morning, leading to 2 inch per hour snow accumulations rates. Some snow totals from this event include: Sinsinawa, WI: 18 inches, Hazel Green, WI: 14 inches, Cuba City, WI: 13 inches, Platteville, WI: 10.5 inches, Guttenberg, IA: 10 inches, Lancaster, WI: 8.7 inches, Elkader, IA: 8.4 inches, Strawberry Point, IA: 7.8 inches and Muscoda, WI: 7.5 inches. Near blizzard conditions occur across part of Lower Michigan with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from Kalamazoo to Jackson, MI. The storm dropped more than 8 inches of snow at Grand Rapids, contributing to their snowiest February on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2010 - On February 5-6, a severe nor'easter, commonly referred to as Snowmageddon, impacted the east coast from North Carolina to New York. Some snowfall amounts include; 32.9 inches at Washington Dulles International Airport; 28.5 inches at the Philadelphia International Airport; 21.1 inches at the Pittsburgh International Airport; 18.2 in Atlantic City; Trace in Central Park. 2010: The Feb. 5-6 snowstorm was rated a Category 3 ("Major") snowstorm based on NESIS (Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale) and hit Northern VA and particularly Maryland very hard with power outages and up to 3 feet of snow in Allegheny County. Frostburg measured 36.0 inches at 112 PM on Feb. 6th. (Ref. See below Snowfall totals in Northern VA & MD) "Record 2-day snowfall on 5th-6th at IAD, 32.4"; BWI 24.8"; 2nd greatest at DCA, 17.8 the fourth greatest snowstorm on record"; Blizzard conditions in Anne Arundel and St. Mary’s Counties, MD, with wind gusts 35 mph and greater, blowing and drifting snow, visibilities less than 1/4 mile. Snowfall 20"-30" in most locations and as much as 38.3" in Elkridge, MD, and 34.5" in Leesburg, VA." (Ref. FEB PRESTO Page 1) The total snowfall today at West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen VA. area was 6.6 inches and total precipitation from snow and rainfall was 0.78 inches (total water equivalent for the storm of the 5th and 6th was 2.50 inches) and the snow ended at 1730 hrs. The storm total snowfall at West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen VA. area was 11.1 inches but the rainfall in this storm melted about 2.0 inches of this from the 4.5 inches that fell on the 5th. It was the most snow I have ever seen fall on the back side of a storm from the wrap- around effect and just after the snow ended there was a total of 12.4 inches on the lawn. Other links-- 2011: O'hare International Airport in chicago received 2.6 inches of snow today. This brings the total for the season so far to 50.1 inches and marks the first time in Chicago weather history that there have been four consecutive seasons of 50 inch or greater snowfall. (Ref. 1st time in Chicago's history with 4 consecutive seasons of 50 inches or greater snowfall.)

3k NAM shifted the NOR west a bit

SWS for up to an inch west of the Blue Ridge. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 MDZ003-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-504-507-508-WVZ050>053-055- 502-504-506-062030- Washington-Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle- Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant- Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Cumberland, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Monterey, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Petersburg, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 923 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 ...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... * WHAT...Light snow likely. Total snow accumulations up to 1 inch, with locally higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible along the ridges. * WHERE...Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, eastern West Virginia, western Maryland and central Virginia. * WHEN...From 12 PM this afternoon to 6 PM this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions this afternoon and evening.

Looks like a bit of light snow/flurries at Whitetail

Wow, that's quite impressive IMO, considering 1991-2020 was, by far, the warmest climatological normal period in recorded history. And the last 20 years are outpacing them by 0.6-1F across the board. One would think the warmer norms would tilt the scale towards more cooler than normal years, but, in fact, one finds the opposite phenomenon. Very intriguing.

Too much

3k NAM gives BVY and Manchester-by-the-sea like 12-15”.

What if I had said 3-6?

Except with warm rain?

Dry slotted to hell. Wonder if we even get an inch.

RH spiked a Clear Spring Mesonet site. Maybe some flurries trying to reach the ground?

Yeah there’s general lift with the height falls and LL convergence does migrate across the region but where it slows down or temporarily stalls is where the jackpot will be. But I think almost everyone gets 1-2” minimum.

Traffic cams show light snow falling just west of HGR.

25 / 10 off a low of 9,3. We'll see if today can make 5 above freezing in a row / and yet still be -5 or so below avg for the period. Light snow tonight and throughout the morning Saturday. Cold perhaps coldest 60 hour period Sat AM - Monday PM. Moderation next week but stubborn cold could yield a mix Wed and later Valentines weekend and into presidenets day 2/16. Beyond there a bit warmer overall but still close to avg.

Agreed. I don't believe the front really gets E of that trough axis... I think it kind of slows as it incurs on that thing's axis; then it collapses thru after the fact.

LMAO! Nowhere did I say I know more than people with MET degrees. I said that SOME (not all) people here, with or without Met degrees think they are such hot **** and look down on the so called "weenies". Im simply bringing those people back down to earth. Once again, there is no reason for the arrogance. How is it that you can't understand this very basic concept?

Holy hell yesterday’s low turned into a monster in the Atlantic off the Carolina coast. What could have been!!!

Wind sucks. My only solace at this point is not living under massive trees and having underground power lines. Any outages/damage will suck tomorrow with the frigid temps at the same time.

Morning low of 7 this morning. Scraped probably a 1/2" layer of frost off the windshield.