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Wasn't this week suppose to be mild/"warm" with highs in the 40's and 50's????

This mid range cycles always get me spooked. Another 24-48 hours and I will feel better

oof this is becoming a bit ugly. Really may be Pike north for best shot at any accumulations more than a few inches...maybe CT Hills can squeak an inch or two. Such a tough forecast, the band of snow is going to be so narrow

If there are observed and measurable reductions in model accuracy due to fewer balloon launches, please link me to this info.

You aren’t wrong to bring this up, but recall a big issue being wave spacing and kickers punting these coastal threats out to sea. The wavelengths being shorter in late Feb into March could help here. That strong high to the north has my attention for that one though.

Yeah, I was a little bummed because of the ol' want to see "snow on snow" so didn't get that. Then we got the three plus week glacier so...I got over it! (lol)

The first system does not concern me too much here because its more a late Miller B type transfer. If it was a pure coastal or an earlier transfer way south I'd be more concerned about the Sunday storm ending up flat or not happening. As a matter of fact we probably do not want the Friday event to have the primary/Lakes low be too strong because I think the leftover result if that happens may be Sunday being more a risk to do what the AIGFS had been showing on some runs yesterday

Ahhh mine held on, barely haha

Weathernext

Yeah, that snow had melted just ahead of (the day before) the 1/25 event.

Threadworthy. A lot to discuss. Let’s see if the AIs lead the pack.

Does anyone know what's causing the bad air quality in some areas?

Maybe just a gravity wave that screws RI, but buries the rest?

I'm thinking 2-4" for you. Probably 3" of wet snow

the pieces are in place, now they need to come together. and therein lies the rub.....if you ever get kocin's book, the best chapter is on near misses, imo....

I will be paying careful attention to timing. I’m supposed to fly out from Logan for work at 6pm Sunday.

I just mean that when it shows the same solution for a few cycles, I’ve noticed it either means it’s gonna happen or it’s not gonna happen. Right now I don’t have a feeling either way.

36 / 34 - a rapid melt off kind of day and the warmest day since the warmth of early Jan for many. Perhaps a stray 50. Might be the only chink of sun we see for a while with a cloudy and overall wet week that may transition to white by Sunday - Monday. Near to below avg beyond the weekend/monday period - 2/23 - beyond.

The Euro and GFS have two totally different iterations in the long term. GFS wetter and somewhat milder. The Euro is much dryer and colder starting with the frontal passage this weekend. Would at least like to see some decent weekend golfing weather...

I never knew they flew fighter jets to try to make it snow here. interesting

cory started a thread

Interested to see what 12z looks like. I am with John....my initial instinct was no, but it's not impossible and could still go either way. The ridge has moved slightly WEST and amplified since I indicated I was against it, so it looks better now. I originally thought maybe 25% shot, now I would agree it's like 50/50.

what this all comes down to is the timing of the northern energy and the southern energy and how and IF they phase together and where and IF that happens closer to the east coast. Typical Miller B setup - and as Don mentioned in his late afternoon post in the main forum "An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). "

It’s that time of year where you usually want to bet on the wedge winning in your temp and cloud forecasts…

okay