All Activity

But there is some movement toward it vs away, which makes it a little harder to disregard the Gfs completely imho.

A few miles from there

We all know the drill, when the GFS is showing a big storm without support in a marginal airmass, it’s most likely not correct. But hey, u never know!!

Let’s go Panthers!

The looks are pretty but we only have the GFS and like 100hr old runs of the ICON. Can’t say we weren’t warned if/when we get nothing

I remember the heady days of dec 17, 2009 every time they issued a new storm warning update, the snow total forecast increased another 6" over the last issue. Seems like a lifetime ago. I was never so excited to hit the refresh button on my browser.

I also remember how good EPS looked last February a week out. Maybe the reverse will happen this time.

I just look at precip. Its paltry. If the snow maps suck too that means we aren't getting much of anything- no rain either.

To each his own I guess.

Exactly

And there is a flip side to this, how infrequent that may be. Jan 2024 gave us a pair of NS storms that dropped 2-5” across our area. Ens means were an inch or less up until 24 hours before the event - in both cases. BUT the lack of ens support is a red flag that we can look back on if this event fails to materialize for us.

Now that makes sense. I'm gonna deliver down there for sure.

Yah, I know you hate the snow maps, but they stink for the upcoming work week. No support for a big storm yet.... WB 18Z GEFS and EPS.

Yeah bark is worse than bite here.

They are stoked for the Cape storm, not the one on the 15th fwiw

As I mentioned earlier with a complex set up like this one ens will take some time to catch up if the op is onto the right idea. Maybe by tomorrow night or Monday. We seen ensembles show 6”+ for a day 5 storm before and it resulted in nothing. Last year prime example.

LOL

18z EURO and GFS one in the same it appears. Both are decent

Decent 18z Euro run for the 15th chance.

by tuesday we should have consensus!

They're pretty optimistic in the Southern forum.

Just don't let whatever happens stall south......that would just suck.

Still not much to be excited about at the surface on the 18z Eps. Need to see some improvement over the next few model cycles. GEFS too.

Also didn’t break 50 today. Yesterday was 53. Was supposed to be the warmest days in the 60s in this January thaw.

Nice. Thats the one Virgin Island I have not been to. I like Tortola.