All Activity

Caribou doesn’t get a crazy amount of snow. You don’t even need to leave NY. Tug hill Platue averages over 250” a year and has seen over 400” .

Caribou

68 Nice out there

yeah...this has been my experience with them over the years. They tend to not be significantly better than a coin flip beyond 14 days. Maaaybe some residue of usefulness very early in week 3 then seeya

The weeklies in mid Feb showed a cold March-instead we got a coast to coast torch. Take with a grain of salt.

So does anyone know how these multi week products are derived? You should know if you use them... heh. Kinda like oh, I dunno, AI GFS. I'm just wondering in pure speculation if these may get increasingly more climate weighted out in time.

mmm those products are suss. Not just because they are way the hell and gone out in time, either. I noticed looking at the Euro Weeklies and the Can Extended, they are showing cool anomalies precisely everywhere the climate models, and verification over the last 10 years, have been actually going the other way from late Aprils thru May. That's a bit of a creepy coincidence where these runs are targeting all the hot problem regions like that ...cooking cutting the known hot zones for cooler anomalies -

I didnt say they lied. I was questioning the snowfall since NYC records began in 1869 and never averaged close to 40" (other then 2010s). However, I did not see this Newark list. When I clicked "Newark Area" it started in 1930. Usually "area" is the most comprehensive data set for an area. But in this case its not. Not sure where this old data suddenly came from, but I consider any old data pre-1870 to be fascinating because of it's rarity. Indeed that does avg low 40s. Very interesting and would wonder how accurate it is. Newark 1850-1870 average is near idential to present-day Detroit average snowfall, but Newark 1850-1870 DJF still averaged 2.2F warmer and over 4" wetter in winter than present-day Detroit. I wish we had those records for here (there are some sparse observations/journals, but not enough accuracy for a complete record).

mmm. I'd say your 43 is believable

77 in NW DC.

A bit too strong of a S flow here. Only 67. GON 48, lol.

Ha...wow, add the Canadian Extended to the list... NO summer for you, ONE YEAR!

I may be running a little high on the Davis, but the backyard is just beginning to dry out. Most of the area is U30s.

Some of the American long lead products are doing the same thing, though. heh...I've never been fan of the weeklies. Not gonna start being a fan of the CFS2v tickled shits whatever it is, either. I've found that beyond 10 days, they are not significantly more dependable than just running the regular ensembles members out to kingdom come. Until a D19 long lead is shockingly on point, I'l defer to those for entertainment

Was thinking the same thing. Did a bunch of yardwork today and backyard is all set up for summer minus the pool being open. I'll be cracking a Tree House in a little while. Cheers buddy!!

I'm actually surprised there's that much water in the air this early in the year. huh

+1

72.0/43

Those were the nyc totals i posted btw, bc newark didnt start til the 1930s. I figured nyc was very close.

That will bust with the MJO to phase 8 to 1, with 1 being the warmest for this time of year in New England. You’ll probably see the cold anoms in the mid Atlantic, Long Island to del Marva.

Yeah... it really just looks like those long lead products are assuming the winter pattern never stops. I'm not necessarily offended by persistence - it is what it is. The onus is on Earth to change it. LOL Fwiw ... not that our druthers have any say in matter, but having neggie anoms in the 3rd and 4th week getting toward the arrival of he solar max isn't a terrible reality, necessarily, either.

Mid Atlantic (DCA up to PHL at least) had a decent 6"+ storm in December, 1982 that was supposed to stay south in VA. Great Sunday night surprise as I remember it well. When I asked JB about it when he was still at Accuwx, he said he was jumping up and down saying it would come north but other forecasters overruled him.

Caribou or International Falls

UKMET has been one of the better models in recent years. It’s going ~+2.05 for Sep ONI and would likely rise a few more tenths from there. Then take off ~0.5 to convert to RONI. So, ~+1.5-1.6 C RONI in Sept and rising per UKMET. Euro ONI is just over +2.2 in Sept and rising, but it has tended to verify too warm although not as much warm bias verified on average in actual El Niños. This all suggests to me a mid to high grade strong RONI peak as of now. I’ll continue to update.

Weeklies have 4 weeks in a row BN starting the 20th following the Neg Nao theme with well below normal heights for New England