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Someone smarter than me can extrapolate the NAM. But it looked like it has potential at the end?

Cape Cod and not a hair further west. Boston will get fringed.

Grocery stores might be quiet because last weekend everyone stocked up like it was the apocalypse.

Right, but he was agreeing with me, so that's why I replied. No biggie.

Patience ATT / Takeaway it's a signal with agreement of models on all levels. To early to write off, trends yes with no definitive analysis. Won't get fooled again.

1/27 06Z Ensemble mean GEFS: ICON enembles: GEFS: EPS:

Your gfs ai and euro ai are 6 hour qpf - can you update with the total? .

On my street in Annapolis we just got a plow at 5 am moved the top layer then dropped all of the Mortens salt in the state on our road but only did the part that is flat the hill was not touched lol. Sorry for the banter let real this snow in for this weekend!

My lower back def feels that shoveling from yesterday lol. Different muscle groups used for that exercise.

Go to facebook, its being hyped with the usual acid trip maps. "We aren't saying it's going to do anything, but the potential for a blizzard is there." In other words, 1 to 36 inches. Who's dying over toilet paper? Nobody can even get out of their house from all this igloo ice. I spent three hours yesterday hacking.

Agreed, my guess is we see changes in our favor.

1/27 06z QPF summary ICON: GFS: GGEM: UKMET: GEFS: GFS AI AIGFS: EURO: AIFS: EPS:

Tip started the thread. Death Knoll. (Insert Psycho babble response) j/k John

22" after a big day 2, east side of Belchertown near Quabbin West/south Belchertown got a little more day 1 and but less day 2

Grocery stores are quiet around here because nobody can get out of their unplowed neighborhoods to get to them, lmao. VDOT, where art thou?

I think today is a day where each model can jump 200-250 miles in either direction. Once within 72-96 hours that’s much less likely as you get 50-100 mile moves and then the typical 25-50 shift within 24-48 hours

I’m extrapolating a big nor’easter. Somewhere.

I think we got about 2 ...maybe 3 cycles remaining. After that, it's probably a consensus go or no go

Snowed on and off much of the day yesterday... picked up around 2" of pure fluff. Snowing again lightly now with 1-3" in the forecast.

I know its the 84hr NAM but the uppers look much for like the EURO-AI then the EURO.

WB 12Z 12K NAM at range:

Timing is everything with this weekend's system. The Euro phases the upper low later and farther east, leaving the mountains with cold air aloft but limited divergence and moisture. The GFS phases earlier, allowing stronger upper-level divergence to overlap deeper moisture and throw precip back into the Appalachians.

Going out to sea is more a product of this closing off too early than issues with the trough orientation.

I was responding to Donnie 2 states.

The key points to remember for today IMO 1. the key piece of energy that will generate the trough lalter this week is still far north in Canada and there is sparse sampling up there. 2. The trough down south later this week has to take on a negative tilt sooner than later and further west for this storm to get close enough to the coast to give us a major storm. If it waits to go negative further east the storm will ride up the coast further east. 3. The reason the trough has to go negative earlier and further west is because the upward motion in the atmosphere is on the northeastern flank of the trough promotes heavier precip and this will be centered over the metro if the storm is close to the coast and out to sea if it goes negative to late.