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We will see if the signal becomes more consistent in the coming days, but today was really the first where we saw a stronger signal for TC genesis in the Gulf across operational and ensemble guidance near that mid-month window.

Going with 9/4/2

Models are starting to light up in the EPAC I’m the coming days. A fast start seems increasingly likely there.

Just a touch of some Canadian smoke aloft it looks like.

If the thunder don't get you than the lightning will.

Drivers of primary patterns take time to manifest because they become stable and promote large scale changes across the globe. The teleconnections are a case of drivers, but some last longer than others, so temporal variance is lower in more stable regimes. ENSO takes time to promote atmospheric coupling, so we usually see lags that can last months before the regime takes a greater hold on the overall global pattern. You also have your seasonal variances in the mix too, especially this time of year where the tropics begin activating with a series of waves and focus of trade wind flow stemming from hemispheric drivers like the development of the Bermuda High and Eastern Pacific ridging that takes shape as we see increasing heat flux across the Desert Southwest with a Monsoonal trough materialize due to topographic schemes coupling with intense continental heating. All of this to say; it takes time and pattern shifts also yield different results pending other variables that can be found during intra-seasonal transition and fluctuations within other teleconnections globally. Persistence usually wins out in the long term, but one stable pattern eventually does give way after a while when in the right scenario. This time, it will with ENSO’s transition to more El Niño composites, so it will only be a matter of time before the pivot. Right now, it’s not trending significantly in that direction the next few weeks, but you might start seeing signs of subtle shifts in the coming 2-4 weeks. I think a full hemispheric deviation won’t occur until later in the summer or fall. Just my 2cents.

Love it! Ill be in Alaska

If you use that true color overlay and go earlier in the day, I swear you can see waves pulsating over the northeast/rust/mid atl. Might have to zoom way in. Yes, I'm sober.

not bad. Grilled some chicken and ripping back a drink

I think last year will continue to show up

My P&C has me failing to reach 90s tomorrow and Sunday and has me in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, so we shall see. But yes longe range looks warm.

83 high 49 low . 44 low at Frederick

We’ve seen them climb the 5-foot retaining wall to get into the Gondola barn and then remove the storage door, hinges and all, just to get to a bucket of compost.

72/49, clear sky full of stars, what an amazing evening outside on the back patio tonight !

We've had just fringes of things here, no hail and 0.11" rain since Monday.

That's a question for @WxUSAF or @MillvilleWx as they understand how atmospheric forcing causes pattern changes. I am at the point where I can tell you the pattern to look for and if models show it.

If we get a Super, record breaking El Nino for autumn 2026... we could have an amazing fall foliage year.

Could be seeing crisping lawns by the weekend. Areas of my yard not reached by the sprinklers are already starting to crisp. The entire yard was lush green as of late last week. Flower pots in full sun and community garden bed need watering pretty much every two days.

Another perfect day, maybe even the best of 2026 thus far. 26C/80F. There was not a cloud in the sky anywhere in southern ON/most of MI til dusk. This is now the 8th day; may be my fav wx pattern in a long time. With this immense amt. of sun for this region and long days I feel totally diff compared to just 3 weeks ago; I need to move to a diff climate for sure. The lawns around here are just showing the first signs of burning, just today I saw the diff within 8 hours - whew. The rivers were very high in early Apr now they're low.

We managed to hit 42.1º this morning. Much cooler than I expected. The station right below me directly on the river hit 40.3º. Wild. I was hiking up at Grayson Highlands yesterday and it was in the mid-40s all evening. Definitely an odd, but very nice day out for early June.

My El Niño intensity composites are pretty similar to his...few differences....notably, I consider 1972 as merely strong and 2009 as moderate.

Atlantic: 10/5/2 ACE 82

Maybe we got more than most - gusts to 60, scattered tree damage (some falling on SE winds, some on back side NW winds), and 6.41", greatest calendar day I've experienced. It looms bigger because the following 43 years have provided only dreck for TCs.

Pollen?

What an amazing early June day across the Mountains. It was 49 at the house this morning and warmed to 72 this afternoon. Humidity was non existent and it felt like an October Fall day!