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The challenge with Miller A's v. B's is a whole different animal! B's precip shields are relatively easy to deal with and while there are always questions about ptype, intensity and transition zones, it's quite easy to predict precip coverage. Miller A's are a whole different animal. Track (over, inside or outside the benchmark / stalling / loops) and the ever present headache chasing multiple lows, some real, some ghost, makes the forecast confidence level drop. In the early days of my career, I remember plotting ship reports trying to get a handle on any offshore development of any spurious lows. The more seaward trend of this system is likely a product of a couple of items; right now I'm more inclined to think that the southward collapsing feature in northeast Canada might be a bigger player than speed shear issues. The speed issue is certainly not helping but I think the Canadian issue might be a greater contributer? To deny the offshore trend would be foolish of me, but I remain vigilant, especially for eastern CT.

Just not enough room...the trough is too far east. When it was digging further west through W TN and MS, it had more room.

That's really fun - what a great thing to do for and with your kids!

I keep getting an error message.

Just to illustrate how much we are splitting hairs… here is the 500mb view of the upper low from the FV3 and the RGEM. Nearly identical in placement but the tilt is just a tad bit better on the FV3 and the flow is more onshore and pulls the coastal in just a tiny bit more. Ideally we’d have this thing closing off and going neutral in central Tennessee/north Alabama and we aren’t terribly far from that. But that’s what would give us our best shot at board wide happiness lol.

*peeking in* from JoCo, NC.... Seems like feast or famine normally here... Which will it be this time?

WxBear just explained to the pope, he laid out the situation well.

I just see his "First Guess" which is very aggressive. Did he put out a "first call" now?

I think that was a different year here is 2005 snow map

That makes sense. I guess that’s why the NAM hasn’t been replaced with it yet. lol.

Yeah we need consistent NW trends at this point, not wishy washy a little jump NW then back SE. At 0z if we don’t see that then I’m calling it dead.

Poop.

Squash city. That W-E ribbon of vorticity is basically a 500mb front…NE flow above it and W flow south of it. The end of the PV lobe/trough/vortmax tries to dig, curl, and amplify but it just can’t recover enough to make the system significantly affect us at our lat/long. If we didn’t get that little extra shitstreak dropping south over Maine I think there would be a better ridging response over New England and that vort may dug off the Carolinas instead. It’s almost looks like that extra suppression forces the angular momentum to dig it further south. But maybe that’s just weenie physics to my naked eyes

Because two runs ago the only people getting snow were potentially Bermuda .

It’s been lol…we need a defibrillator now.

It’s a big flip from what it was doing a couple of runs ago. I can’t speak for the too distant past, but I know it did well last storm. .

We would of had a big snowstorm on our hands if H5 low would have been further north instead of near the Southern Mid Atlantic. They will be seeing a nice snowstorm with strong winds ( wouldnt be shocked to see blizzard warnings)

Its got a lot to learn but does ok within 48 or less hours from what I have noticed.

And the low to the east of the main low

Icon heaviest snow in NC just N of Fayetteville and NE with big hits those locations. It also gives me a rare for this area 0.5” though I’ll believe that when I see it!

On the other hand the Rufus ticked west, I call it a wash. Haha

Wonder what type of verification scores it has.. looks very much like FV3/GFS

We would of had a big snowstorm on our hands if H5 low would have been further north instead of near the Southern Mid Atlantic. They will be seeing a nice snowstorm with strong winds ( wouldnt be shocked to see blizzard warnings)

What’s interesting about this run is it’s the polar opposite of what that model has been doing. Nobody has been quoting it in a thread because it’s been the worst case scenario for days. Until now apparently. .

Reggie ticked east. Life support alert activated…