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NAM at 00z Monday near NYC.

Include any early school closings.

Always a good idea to keep an eye on what it’s showing and put it in a camp. In this case it’s much closer to the Canadian solution than the GFS. I wouldn’t weight it as much as an operational out past 48 hours. When it shows this type of mid level warming though it’s unfortunately been right quite a few times.

0.51" freezing rain for Greenville, NC ??? PASS THE VAPORS! I thought we'd be saved by our proximity to the coast.

I ended up with 10 or 11 inches the morning after that event. Way waaaay more than forecast.

not a stupid question at all! minus 4 celcius- verbatim that would still be snow up at ABE - a little too close so I suspect sleet where it is minus 2 or higher

Somebody in Albany had a lot of fun: Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Well TBF there have been a couple posters stoking the negativity embers

Probably soon. Lol

Precip always always always arrives early

So just another solution. With each model suite it seems like the floor for this event is increasing. While idk if we see over 12, atleast 6 is looking more and more likely.

I wouldn't trust the NAM beyond 12 hours. It didn't even sample the current precip over GA correctly at initiation.

lol how is this like every other SWFE in the last 5 years? temps are in the teens and you can get 2" per hour rates

I’m tracking with this other than you saying the predominant ptype being freezing rain. Think the models are over selling the freezing rain aspect due to modeled lower surface temps but the other ingredients aren’t really there for a ton of icing other than in transition. We’ll see.. especially if/when CAD sets in as that could stir things up.

ICON hanging back the Baja low this run, thru 36. Don’t know how well it will play with the NS yet.

Just want to thank everyone for their input and analysis the past few days. I am worried about the duration of the freezing rain event for KTRI. I am now just hoping all hope for significant downsloping to get surface temps above freezing. I have thrown in the towel for snow. Yes, we may still see 3 to 4 inches here. But it will not be fun if the ice accumulation occurs. The grid here can't handle anything over .5, God forbid .75, without greatly increasing the scale of damage to infrastructure. I am hopeful that a change over to heavy rain could result in significant melting before strong NW surface flow hits.

Maybe 1 in 3? I’d prob forecast 10-15” at the moment….

I had a sheet of ice on my asphalt driveway this morning and almost slipped on my backside. Not expected or forecasted. Hunter is right about the short-term guidance. We've been monitoring the Globals for a week now. Attention turns to the shorter range high resolution guidance for more nuanced possibilities.

Main takeaway is the NAM puts itself in Euro's camp, even though it trended a touch colder.

I know people are blowing off the NAM as crazy, which it probably is, but if it is handling dynamics correctly and it shows that sleet line progress so quickly I wouldn’t bet against it. I was in NYC for the Boxing Day storm and from a couple days out it was hammering a quick changeover that the other models didn’t have and it was completely right.

At the end of the 3k NAM run, it has the snow/sleet line notably south of 12k NAM in Kentucky. Maybe 50mi? fwiw NAM thermals are definitely worth watching, but like starting with tomorrows 12z or 18z?

Double edged sword, IMO. "Potential for significant winter weather" likely does not move the public needle enough in the event a devastating, 2002-esque ice storm does come to pass. I do agree that anyone with an iota of Carolinas forecasting experience should know better than to make p-type specific projections beyond three days lol

RGEM next up

I wouldn’t trust the NAM at 84 hours but you never know.

I'm worried too but my only hopium is that it is a true artic airmass (in place before the storm) will be a little more stubborn than usual WAA. I've been here too long. That warm air aloft ALWAYS comes in quicker than modeled. I've been telling friends 6-10 so hopefully at least 6" can be reached.