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FWIW the RRFS is a helluva lot better

I got a dusting here in Poughkeepsie in January 2016. I think I’m gonna get more than that this time. .

Updated with the NAM

Do you ever stop with this crap?? Ever? Does any amount of criticism phase you? It seems like you learn absolutely nothing every single time we do this. No one wants to hear your whining every ten posts. Please reconsider. .

Getting dangerously close to forming a MAUL here. Wind is going to be a very serious issue if that does develop.

Better than 0z.. almost 1” QPF

You've been very spot on in all your analysis and assessments and with projected trends. Excellent stuff as always

Tony wont be able to move his car for a week.

Chances of this happening?? Nice to look at, really wish the EURO was on board.

3K NAM is a beat down! .

You bet your ass I am! Full Afterburner brother!

27 for that one

Kind of disappointed we haven’t crashed the board. Back in my day, us old time weenies would bring Eastern down over this $hit

Maybe we get a foot.

Definitely some concerns here. Don’t think it’ll be as pronounced as the BOX map though.

So close to the Norlun trough in Cvill too. One thing I have noticed which sucks for me is that the initial thump of precip overnight tonight has been trending a bit warmer causing it to be rain which was what I was relying on.

Should be. It was grossly underestimated.

When the big cities around you, and even just 50 miles north or east of you are getting a historic snow, why would you ever care about 6 inches? These opportunities are so rare. Have to find a way to cash in. I’d rather risk getting nothing if it gave me a better chance of a huge hit.

Thanks for this. Measuring should be interesting lol.

Yeah that move due east off the Delmarva vs. a more northeasterly track south of LI isn't ideal.

Don’t tease with Jan 2016 day 2! That band feeding central VA was glorious…both on radar and just watching it fall. Verbatim, the evolution here does look similar and we need to hope for that closer to the coast low placement. But yea, regardless of what actually accumulates, it would be great to see it.

Don't forget ... NW bias (... it's always awesome to find a mouse pellet in your raisin toast, huh ) hahahaha. yeah, no... in this situation, like I just wrote about a minute ago, I feel the N-W solutions have some merit. That's really what it comes down two; the NAM does ongoing support a N-W bias at this time range, but some situations ...that's an advantage - or can be. Case in point, Dec 2005. Granted there's been some pretty significant model improvements in the last 20 year ( haha), but back in the day ...the globals were all SE of the NAM, even the day before that event. I recall writing a pretty spot on disco as to why the ETA model was likelier to be ( exceptionally) correct. It had to do with identify the surface to 800 mb frontal position, along which there was extraordinary thermal packing, making said frontal slope very upright. This is an environment feebdack that the resolution of the globals of the day... mm probably missed? But when mid level jet first nosed over that boundary, it was instant bombogen where the UVM was hyper focus and was tapping the improving diffluence as the jet continue to advance. Set off a host of other feedbacks...it grew so intense there was a tropopausal fold event...and the underside stinger brought 100 mph wind gusts that no one new was coming. I didn't even see that... what an amazing thing that was. wow. Anyway, that's all a fast sloppy write sojourn ... In this situation, all the globals as I wrote earlier seem to be biased ( more or less) SE of the best q-g forcing. This really seems like a situation where the initial low trigger should be closer to the Del Marva stinger, and then hug bit closer where the 500 mb diffluence jet velocity is stronger... then, that parlays, because the storm then captures farther west ...if only 50 miles makes all the difference in some case. When the to collocate, that proficiency than means even stall possibilities ...all of which would be NW of the 54 hour positions offered up by the global runs overnight. christ ..i have stop writing so much... maybe i just grab all these and dump them into a weather diary novel. that's idea lol

I’m issuing Blizzicaine warnings

Nam has a really fun time for most of us with low visibility wind blown mod to heavy snow Sunday evening into much of Monday.