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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-6/Wed-Thu -- Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds. This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass. While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft

90 at bwi for the high. On the comfortable day of the weekend lol

No, I actually did mean 2011 when there were destructive tornadoes in western Massachusetts.

We are just obliterating average temps this June.

I am really stunned the SPC expanded the slight risk tomorrow and subsequently, the marginal risk further east tomorrow.

Only 97.7 today. Whoops, I mean 98.4

^ “Given the inability of the Anticyclone to exercise its normal duties at this time of year; warm waters are fully invading the Peruvian coastline and beginning to manifest off the north of #Chile. On the other hand, with a different dynamic, the dissipation of the cold anomaly off the north of #Ecuador was also observed. #Lima today Saturday, one week from the start of the astronomical winter, is seeing temperatures between 25°C and 27°C. #ElNiño”

Sorry for the late post. I had to decompress after an exhausting two days at work covering the tornadoes and storm damage. It was another wildly memorable event for our area in an exceptionally busy Spring. I faired well in my backyard. Kept power and no damage. Obviously many nearby weren’t as lucky. We had so many amazing videos and photos to share at my tv station. It was like something out of the Great Plains. Looks like another round may be lurking next week.

It’s wild that 94 is much less hot!

Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??: 7/25: ~-0.6 8/25: ~0 9/25: ~0 10/25: ~-0.3 11/25: ~0 12/25: ~+0.35 1/26: ~0 2/26:~-0.5 3/26: ~-0.6 4/26: ~-0.6 5/26: ~-0.7 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

Looking like another impactful stretch of weather coming up, with Wednesday, as of now, having the highest ceiling. StormNet, CSU-MLP, and other ML products have all had very "hot" runs lately, pretty eyecatching stuff, especially as the northern bound of the highest prob area is over the same area that saw several tornadoes on Thursday. The GEFS has been consistent in showing an area of high P[SCP>1] over portions of Missouri and Illinois, even back into Kansas, for multiple runs now, while other models expand the risk further east towards Ohio. Regardless, very strong flow for this time of the year will overlap an area of ample moisture. Should be an interesting couple days.

God I hope ur right bro!!!

Apparently, not humid enough for some.

Agreed, it looks like another potentially widespread and significant severe weather episode with very strong flow overlapping high moisture. Tuesday could have some potential too.

Short range models whiiffed,better convection was seemingly in SW Tn,but nothing really severe

Ugh! No fun! That had to be miserable for her on Friday! As I get older my excitement for severe weather is drastically waning! I only root for snowstorms now!

Sheesh...what do we have to wait another decade to get outta this? Boo, lol

Well I don't mind the drought because I don't have to cut an acre of lawn every week. But I do miss the rain cause the grass is looking more brown then green

I had some minor branches go in ng across. The driveway but other than that, the storm were more bark then bite. Barely any rain

Much less hot today we haven’t broken 94 yet. Mostly overcast and not as humid

Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS

So much for rain today too...rain will stay south...screwed again

Decent

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry.

Sorry for the late reply. Sadly I missed out on the seeing the storm hit due to other reasons but could hear it. Family reported that we had a huge wind gust and lost power because of it. Was out for about 2.5 hours. Kids saw a sweet rainbow and sunset sky after that was awesome. Speaking of trees, my mom's hood in annandale was smacked from the storms on Thursday. A huge 30" poplar fell across the road taking out power lines. That was 8pm thursday. Dominion didn't show up until yesterday afternoon so a full 18 hours later. They worked on things but the storms last night knocked power out for a larger area surrounding my mom's house. She didn't get power back until 2am. So a full 30 hours w/o power for an 85 year old and no a/c. And dominion wants to merge to make more money.