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I get that some are irritated, but we need to roll with it like always. We have NO idea what is really going to happen and that's part of the fun. Look at what models showed a few days back huge blocking etc. They recalculated like a crappy Garmin GPS and will again. Into what... stay tuned LOL. Wasn't it somewhere around 2015 where we didn't have any sign of winter until near mid January and then we were off to the races

Never a harbinger, always a curse.

For sure. Very wintry out there now, and has been for the holiday season too. Looks, feels and seems like it should for late December, and now for the very start of January in a lot of places.

Oh boy. Now we’re starting to see Bam have cold feet.

Sub 30" seasonal totals will be tough with 2.5 months worth of nickle dimer chances left. Already at 20" here for the season. Another week or 2 window of opportunity will probably reveal itself before mid March. However N.IL was pretty much ground zero for the 1st window; doubt it happens for the 2nd window.

Im not sure all areas will go green during that period but I'm curious why you view that as better?

Agreed 100 percent. And while we have it where we have it, lets enjoy the wintry appeal that we have in many of our viewing areas right now. There's been more white ground here so far than like the last 8 years

Glad we had a good start! Normally, this is where I feel like the days can get away quick. Warm up next week, then suddenly it’s mid January. Good to be sitting on 20”+ as opposed to 4 or 5”.

At least with the upcoming warm up, all the old snow will melt so when our next storm hits, it won't be new snow on top of ice.

I'd happily settle for a rainstorm at this point.

Another .3" overnight for nice even 10" on the season, we're a snow town now in 2026

Remember the hot start?

I can see why the frustration is there but it really is only January 2. If we were in a strong EL Nino regime then I would probably be in the camp of throwing away the rest of winter, however, I don't see any strong arguments or data that can make one say with a high level of confidence the remainder of winter is cooked. Sure, December could have been better as a region given how cold it was with the constant shot of Arctic airmasses, but what's the correlation to increased snowfall and storms with Arctic airmasses? I would wager not particularly high...those airmasses are usually quite cold and dry and more often than not, any bigger storms precede the Arctic air. We are also just beginning to enter peak climo which I would presume most receive the majority of their seasonal snowfall between mid January and mid February (obviously different the farther north you go). Yeah places finished under climo in December for snow but its not like December is a massive snow month in the climo department. Whatever negative departures a location has from not meeting December snow quota can easily be made up in January. This milder pattern we're about to enter, may not be a bad thing. Let's reshuffle things up a bit and go from there. There is nothing indicating this mild stretch is something that will be prolonged.

Couldn’t agree more Don…With everything you said. January thaws are 100% a part of our climatology here in SNE…it’s pretty much guaranteed a short relaxation occurs in January at some point. And wall to wall is super rare as you point out. I mean even the record and epic season of 95-96, had all the snow incinerated away in mid January, and then we picked it right back up where we started shortly after that. Long way to go here…85-90% of the season in front of us yet.

That was a peaceful snow while it was falling last night. I had to get up and go outside for a few minutes. Even though it's only .2, with no wind and yesterday's no-melt most of the pepper on the old snow is covered. I leave a lot of plants after they go to seed and the variety of birds appreciating it this year is fantastic

Ensembles are ugly as all hell.

Excellent post Paul.

The good thing about mid January is that AN Canadian air masses often verify as BN or seasonal here. Watch as the air moves south…it often flips to BN. Of note, I didn’t think the surface maps looked terrible at all at this range. The real risk is if the EPO ridge at 500 continues to retrograde and the upcoming trough retrogrades after the 20th…leaving us with only a 7-10 day window. The GEPS ensemble at 0z shows that risk at 300. We need that retrograding pattern to pause or slow once in the right spot. Nina winters really want to put the trough in the Mountain West after January. I am gonna give things a few runs to shake out in terms of whether cold fills the trough or not. If the trough forms and the EPO holds, then cold is less of a concern for me. So with the “what could go wrong” out of the way first. Here are some things to consider. The EPS and Euro at range have struggled to see cold this winter…but generally have been good at 500 - but not infallible. That last comment is generally true for most models not named the Canadian. I have simply stopped using the GFS…It flip flops every run (or every other run) and has too many biases to account for. I like the GEM, but must account for its cold bias. The GFS is going to have to show some skill before I use it past day5. I will discuss its solutions, but it has been bad. As for AI, the jury is still out. The AIFS Euro and ensemble have had some rigor. They look good for the upcoming pattern reshuffle, but they aren’t remarkable in their scoring in my book. The AI GEFS ensemble - I don’t trust it but it looks good. So overall, let’s get this potential pattern inside of day 5. The EPO ridge setting up shop has sped up just a hair overnight. I think the EPO ridge forming is about 48 hours from locking-in as “real” on modeling. It is about 5-6 days out. Once inside of d5, I will “buy” that feature, and that goes for the rest of the features in the map. Until it sets up, I don’t think we are going to really know if the trough fills with cold, if the NAO bridges over, or if the EPO ridge holds long enough to be a force. That is a lot to juggle. I would guess (and could be wrong) that once the EPO forms that cold will fill the eastern trough IF the EPO ridge holds and doesn’t continue retrograding to Asia.

I was also thinking about that, and in New England this is spot on. Let’s roll the dice.

I’m in 100% agreement with Ray on this season’s evolution. We’re a long way from done. I’m cautiously optimistic most of NE will be in striking distance of climo (but still behind I think) by the end of February, with a decent March on the table. Just not sure it’ll be with a big event. Nobody likes to lose any time in winter on a less favorable pattern but that’s climo too. Wall to wall isn’t a thing with regularity. Not sure why some people seem to expect that each year.

IMO, there is way too much instability and hostility to have a solid idea moving past mid-month. I agree that there are times and situations where someone who is incredibly skilled at long-range forecasting can accurately nail pattern evolution and regime looking several weeks down the road...I mean there are some meteorologists who make a killing doing such forecasts for energy companies. Anyways, there is just so much at play right now and so many factors. While we have an idea of how things may unfold over the next few weeks, there are still uncertainties and low confidence in this and because of that there is no way to gauge how the pattern evolves past that because it will be highly dependent on how the next few weeks evolve. But in these situations this is where analogs can provide tremendous value but when you're dealing with the wildcards such as the stratosphere...even analogs may not work too well.

Light snow falling 16.7

For sure Don. I absolutely agree with that. But I am speaking for this current season/current month, and those pieces are not missing at the moment.,right now writing off a whole month is stupid banter plain and simple. I mean, even BAM weather points out that SPV forecasts are not very skillful/accurate, and that was a forecast on an Op run at 15 days away…certainly low skill there; which is why he uses the phrase, “ a Bit of risk to the idea of a 1/12 flip to colder weather.” That 15 day Op run could be on to something, or if could be like most Op runs at 15 days, and be junk. For sure, have to see where that goes. But of course I’d imagine, there’s the idea too, would that even be coupled to the troposphere if that indeed comes to fruition?

Beautiful night last night at Catamount skiing with my son. Some ice, but overall wonderful conditions. The coldest I saw on the car thermometer was -2 coming home. Certainly cold out there. As for those saying if it doesn’t snow it should be warm, winter sports enthusiasts strongly disagree! Although talking with some people last night, the common theme was this start is too good and we are all waiting for the shoe to drop. But so far this has been a great winter.

We need a real snowstorm lol.