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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC is disregarding it completely, but their seasonals have not been better than C+/B- grade as you and I have assessed, over the last 15 years.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    My understanding of the PDO is that it's a 50/50 index. They have it as one area vs another area. Unless AGW is targeting an area specifically - which it is probably not on that scale, it still holds value as you could just as likely see the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast of America have warm water as Japan has seen in recent years. In the 2014-2016 +PDO blip, those other areas did become record warm.
  4. BlizzardWx
    One thing to keep in mind with the PDO is that depending on how you calculate it, it's not necessarily balanced. By that I mean that the main area east of Japan, depending on how you calculate it, can be both larger in area and have a stronger weighting than the half ring around it. This matters, particularly in a warming climate. As warm conditions everywhere can bias the PDO calculation negative for these reasons. In fact I think this already happens with the NOAA calculation. My page and the WCS seem to handle this a bit better but likely not adequately. @bluewavehas talked about how the PDO is becoming less useful with time and this is part of the reason why.
  5. Rjay
    May DCA: -1.5 NYC: -1.5 BOS: -1.5 ORD: -1.8 ATL: 0.0 IAH: +2.0 DEN: +3.5 PHX: +2.5 SEA: +2.0
  6. GaWx
    That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.
  7. Today
  8. GaWx
    May DCA: -0.6 NYC: -0.3 BOS: +0.3 ORD: -1.6 ATL: -0.5 IAH: +0.4 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +2.6 SEA: +2.8
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks for the reminder! May DCA: -0.7 NYC: -0.6 BOS: -0.6 ORD: -1.8 ATL: -0.1 IAH: +0.5 DEN: +3.1 PHX: +2.4 SEA: +3.6
  10. so_whats_happening
    @dmillz25 @Stormchaserchuck1 @Rjay
  11. michsnowfreak
    January 2024 actually was a decent winter month here. It was shockingly (for a strong nino) the wettest january on record at Detroit. Which jives with what you mentioned about strong ninos being wetter. There was a big cold snap mid month and the Plains actually finished the month colder than avg. It was the warm and very low snow December and February that made it such a bummer. This is a pic from Jan 2024. Much of the month resembled what winter in MI should. The problem is Dec and Feb didnt.
  12. KamuSnow
    We have a shagbark hickory tree that is kind of half leafing out, the other half not so much. It's unusual enough to concern me. The 1st noticeable casualty was a wisteria that was leafing out and had flowers, and it got fried. All the leaves are brown (and the sky is gray) and falling off. Hoping for full recovery!
  13. michsnowfreak
    Thats the way to run a strong nino. Cansips has been hellbent on a 3rd straight cold winter in the Great Lakes.
  14. Torch Tiger
    much rather cad than coast
  15. Blizzard of 93
    Let’s go Sixers! Great team effort!
  16. Met1985
    The NW flow will have to let up which is just starting...
  17. Chief83
    Been reading the issue of the late cold snap having negative effects on the fruit trees and vineyards and wonder if anyone else has concerns about the lack of new leaves on some of the trees. We have several well established older trees that I'm pretty sure startled showing new green leaves a few weeks ago. Now all that new growth ( it was pretty limited) appears to be dead and no new green is seen. Did the new growth freeze?. It could be these trees are a variety of naturally late getting leaves, but now it is May and they look like a leafless January tree. I don't think they are dead, but I do wonder if or when they will show signs of life. As I drive around I see other trees in the same condition.
  18. rimetree
    April ends about avg. temp wise here but definitely pretty dry. Picked up 0.39 today, which is the most daily precip we've had all month. Looking forward to some active weather coming up.
  19. wncsnow
    Models went way south for a lot of NC. Next.
  20. so_whats_happening
    That is why it is important for the 500mb to react in the proper manner so things do actually connect. Just because a precursor occurs to create this Strat warming/+GPH pattern but nothing actually sticks at 500mb than you just get warming aloft and nothing connecting. In my mind 23-24 had all the right things going for it but the 500mb atmospheric pattern was flat out wonky given the upper atmospheric pattern taking shape.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    They must calculate in different areas.. Dec 2025 had a >+300dm anomaly which is extreme, only rivaling years like Dec 2021 so the exact coordinates of calculation makes a big difference in the reading since the ridge/block was "on the edge".
  22. Benjamn3
    Fire that damn bus up.
  23. GaWx
    Monthly “WP” table has this for D, J, and F 2025-6: 2025 Dec 0.08 2026 Jan 0.07 Feb 0.23 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data Daily WPO has one of the most negative WPO Decembers on record with every day <0. There’s no way that a monthly of +0.08 has anything to do with the actual WPOs of Dec 2025. It looks like a major malfunction: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  24. so_whats_happening
    This is why it is important to get a solid Wave 2 attack on the SPV like we would typically like to see for that winter potential is you need to have the pacific pattern also in conjunction with the developing -NAO. As I see above the talk about the NAO and the lack there of, at least with consistency, is a huge factor in just continuing with the large scale wave 1 patterns attacking the SPV. The 500mb pattern is important in that regard not necessarily the overall warming/+GPH that takes place in the Strat.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 wasn't always connecting with 50mb as there was some disconnect between the upper and lower atmosphere but the mean for the Winter was pretty warm at 10mb Nov didn't have the warming like 2025
  26. so_whats_happening
    It did not the SPV was stronger to start than this past year but had a very similar large wave 1 like this past year about a month apart from each other. 25-26 November while 23-24 had it in December. Look at the difference leading into both SSW events at 500mb. 23-24 had an atmospheric pattern at 500mb not conducive to sustain the ridging like we would want to see. 25-26 set it up and finally connected in the Nov-Dec 500mb pattern which is exactly what we would want to see occur. Both had very similar Stratospheric ridging patterns but very different 500mb patterns existed thus leading to different results. Both years were in deeply negative PDO territory rising as we got to winter, this past year was some lowest numbers recorded. Both years had a -QBO state at 30mb and were descending (2023 was a tad bit later but still negative during these times). You could make the argument that this past year had more of an El Nino kick to the atmosphere than the year where we had a strong/super Nino.
  27. Stormchaserchuck1
    January 2024 had a -NAO and some cold. The -NAO kept linking up with SE ridge 2018- March 2023, then in Jan 2024 it started to occur with more of an East coast trough, and the same -NAO/EC trough pattern has happened 24-25 and 25-26.
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