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  2. The stuff by state college could eventually get here in a weakened state later this evening otherwise things look tame for eastern sections.
  3. Almost all of Central NJ is under a severe thunderstorm warning now. 60mph wind gusts.
  4. They put my area in the severe t storm watch but I'm on the western edge of it. So not sure I'll get anything. The MCS complex last night wasn't as strong as the one the night before last. It was just rain by the time it crossed my area and I got .20 from it. The night before I got .80 in about 30 minutes.
  5. You do realize that line will intensify and build East right?
  6. Looks like everything will be too far west. NW NJ looks like the spot to be
  7. Each model has a different jackpot area which is typical in convective setups. It’s very hard to pinpoint exact locations. Most of the rain today and tonight will fall in a relatively short period. There’s also quite a high risk of microbursts today, like what we saw yesterday, hence the watch. Could also see an isolated tornado.
  8. Drought buster in eastern PA. Already up to 1 inch today.
  9. Quick 0.46" here in Holyoke.. enough to test my sewer backwater valve (it held fine, but the cover gasket seeped a bit... cleaned and retightened..)
  10. Game on! Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  11. Steamy 82 / 71 between building storms
  12. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ053&warncounty=NCC021&firewxzone=NCZ053&local_place1=2 Miles ENE Bent Creek NC&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Watch&lat=35.5109&lon=-82.6143 Severe thunderstorm watch.
  13. Severe Thunderstorm Watch just posted for entire area
  14. Typhoon Dolphin (12W) is expected to get to 165kt by the JTWC. (July 31st)
  15. And ya think that's primed to happen this time, too? (And was it the same in 72-73?)
  16. Looks like this stuff was fueled by a pretty tight theta-e gradient and on the edge of some pretty decent MUCAPE. MUCAPE values of 2000 J surging north through SNE. That's not too bad...I don't recall guidance having MUCAPE that high
  17. Surprised they issued a severe thunderstorm watch for all of NJ
  18. The first MCS appears to be holding together more than forecast, which could very well kill the chance for any severe in NC today. Frankly all I want is some more rain.
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