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Fay is officially back from the dead. Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has persisted during the day. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again. The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around 31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25 kt. Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around 260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model. The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 30.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

Gale watches are already up lol

https://phys.org/news/2026-09-unevenness-global-regional-speedups-emerge.html

Looks like Polo has finished its ERC, I'm curious to see how strong it gets now.

https://phys.org/news/2026-09-unevenness-global-regional-speedups-emerge.html

OKX has 24hr to issue an advisory for twin forks if need be. Let's hope by tomorrow morning the models all agree on the track & they'll move on advisories for out east if needed.

Was just talking to nws met, sounds like there talking a cautious approach. Watches from past experience,imo, we're always issued area wide at the same time roughly.. to see them doing things, more randomly? Versus watches for coastal flooding all areas that would likely see it is deft unusual especially with such a spread in models would seem more prudent to be safer then sorry? End rant

Upton had balls last winter. Maybe they misplaced them when El Nino came. They should find them again because I have faith the 18z GFS is going to cause them to hoist Gale Watches.

What blows my mind is how nws weather offices don't really seem to like to work either each other sometimes? Example, 430 pm Boston wind probability image shows eastern Long Island at 60%or better chance setting 40 or higher gusts. And places east. But Upton says likely stay below even advisory level...

Other than some rain and little wind, not a big storm. Pretty predestination, yall need to chill out

So many people generally don't like to see or know somebody else is having fun. Misery loves company.

Locking into final scenario

same thing every noreaster-GFS flat out to sea then comes on board at the end

ICON looks similar to 12z...hooks into MTP and rides the S LI coast. Pretty good rain event up here.

If the gfs comes west, Upton will need to change a lot of things but watch everything shift east then near the end. It never ends

This is going to be a FUN winter.

Blue skies and breezy. Feels like fall for sure.

We'll see if the 18z GFS bows to the EURO

Icon is a soaker

Agree and very excited for it. I am soooooo sick of drenching humidity when working outside. This has been the worst summer for that in my life. Last summer the first half was just brutal but things switched up by August and the second half was very reasonable. This year was door to door unrelenting down here. I'll have to check anom maps but my area has to be +5 or something like that. We had a ton of lows in the low 70s and thats not normal. Usually we get into the 60s even when it's 90-95. The relentless humidity made tough to get pleasant nights after a 90+ day. It seems like this current storm sets things in motion in the upper levels to get some amplified deep continental cold fronts with blocking above to lock HP to the north down. And it could have some staying power where strings of AN days are brief and beautiful fall weather dominates overall. Time will tell but I feel pretty optimistic that's where we're heading.

So expect anything from nothing to a major impact. Got it.

Went down the rabbit hole and found December 1989 and December 2015. Holy crap.

Ukie looks close to 12z. We retro.

Icon looks about same maybe a little west Rgem looks better even. Nams are west.

Can we flip the rains up here please. Anything less then 2" is a waste of time Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk