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The needle has barely moved on the snow totals. I was expecting it to be closer to what the Euro was showing.

Who remembers using LFM and facsimile for maps in ether school or work? I was remembering following storms, and it cracks me up with all the data now, it is still tricky.

I input this into ChatGPT, assigned weights to each model, and came up with a weighted Prior to Flip QPF of .66” and Time of Flip of 16z (11am). 5-8” seems like a fair forecast based on that.

@psuhoffman re: your request from the other thread:

Seems like the 12z models shifted south a bit... or maybe a quicker transfer to the EC. Still like where we sit at this point if the energy can hang back longer.

CMC was close to something fun Thursday

Yeah it is more of a gentle slide or evolution towards other modeling but it's bidirectional. I am a bit more optimistic today than I was yesterday, for sure. Still think the GFS is gonna deteriorate a bit though.

It has trended warmer...and some of the warmer guidance like the GGEM has trended colder...they are meeting in the middle...for us right on the line where exactly that middle is means a lot

GFS is consistent with another storm signal in a week. One run warm nosed - apparently always a possibility. The rest are all snow. Euro will find it again. Random cold air thoughts. Being from the Plains we ALWAYS locked in shallow cold harder than models. I tried that a few times in East Tenn. Learned real quick I'm not in Kansas anymore. Warm nose wins in the Great Valley. Then east of the Apps right back to cold wins, bigly CAD right up there with Denver. Amazing.

Seems to be doing better with this system so far. Its over a week out so I doubt it has the details correct

Did I just see this come south a tick or two? Please elaborate

We need to see what the 3km NAM does as we get closer in but the 12km at 12Z fits my idea that the sleet line makes it to the S shore of LI or just south and then collapses.

@caviman2201 thanks for the UK map...any way you could post the one through the end of the storm...I think north of 70 gets more snow after 18z based on the thermal and precip maps. Thanks

12z and GFS still hasn't really caved, not what I was expecting.

It will shift by then and we'll get barely anything

Any storm dropping snowfall that far south will not be high end for us, unless it's a 1/100 year full phaser.

It pops up randomly on guidance but CMC had it today

He's up for round 2...

Let's get it on the 2nd and make my 40th bday epic

I’d sag that blue boob right down into NE CT

I'm wary of the NAM dryness in GA since it did this last year on 1/10 too...that said that was not the same setup, this is more of a case where I can somewhat buy the idea though the RGEM not showing it is a major concern and the 3km NAM seemingly bringing the wedge back to almost CTJ or the Bama border is a concern. I think in the end the risk of the metro seeing ice storm warning criteria is higher than some think while places like GVL E-NE may see more sleet.

Yes

No slop with this one-powdery snow with some sleet on top

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