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Consider them the outlier right now. Probably a bit too cold. Mid-teens in the afternoon is a better bet.

Central CT subsidence west of the IVT

I agree it will end up being a cold and possibly snowy month overall, but I do agree with the idea of a mid month relaxation period.

GSP really should extended advisory down further so this doesn't catch people off guard. The ground is prime for this to be a mess on the roads and temps keep trending downwards.

Agreed. I think many who don’t end up in the Norlun are going to be disappointed. And good look pinning down exactly where it will set up.

While there is certainly time left, many of us missed a golden opportunity to have a banger of a season. Places in all direction are well above normal.

Yeah I think that’s been modeled for awhile. It’s feeling the tug from that H5 low. We get a little meso high over PWM to start and then a lobe from that PV starts digging S of LI and seems to really help back the flow over ENE as we get sfc pressure falls near the BM. I think that’s why we’ve seen a trend on that fropa being delayed Saturday and instead enhanced precip along that slowing sfc convergence zone (inv trough).

Get a pair of these snow goggles:

JB created it in a lab. Frankenhecs

Not overlooked by me. Totally agree with you. I find people just don’t want to hear about it or pay attention to it at this time of year. We need to get into an above normal precipitation pattern soon or there will be significant issues as we head into the warm season. We have been in a prolonged below normal precipitation pattern for the better part of a year.

Potential for 1-3/2-4 is there I think. Looks like a narrow stripe of snow, with a whiff on the north side possible, and rain on the southern side.. If we get some redevelopment off the coast then we'd have a chance at higher totals around warning snowfall..

-SN in Cambridge/Boston out the window (office in Kendall Sq).

someone gave JB access to the google model making feature

Sunny here in Weaverville.

Agree

How good are HRRR surface temps? It barely has DC getting above 10 tomorrow.

Then we have our 5 day thaw potential..

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/2019772590475129058?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I doubt it with the PNA going negative. The STJ should wake up.

Surprised to see some areas of freezing drizzle on my way into work today.

Unlike yesterday, that wasn't really directed at anyone, just a general statement. I was actually replying to my own post lol.

12z models look good. Congrats cstl Essex county I think.

Yeah this looks like more of a norlun event than a widespread plowable snow. I’m not expecting much from this, someone could end up with a surprise but I would think it’s a small area.

That's what's great about this forum. When we're in boring stretches, this helps entertain. Only thing missing is a 8+ event.

Also seeing that latest guidance keeps areas like binghamton, Albany and Syracuse NY sub zero all day Saturday… Good luck infrastructure….