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  2. EastCoast NPZ
    I need to move to Frederick.
  3. WxUSAF
    Got the Stephen’s city treatment so far today. Not even 0.1”, way less than most mesonet stations in central MD
  4. vortex95
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Not the thread for this question, but is the conversation for it. I understand turning the NAM off for convective season, however, I don’t understand turning it off for winter short term stuff. I would love to know why, I assume it’s something in how it handles thermodynamics and WAA, but the NAM is almost always the most correct model when it comes to refining the mixing line in synoptic scale winter storms. It just seems odd to turn off a model which has a very useful edge on all others, even if it sucks at a lot of other aspects; could at least compromise and run it before major storms on the east coast. Would love to know your thoughts on both why it surpasses the other mesoscale models in the mixing line placement and how to compensate for its disappearance come winter time.
  6. wncsnow
    It’s raining again today and rained yesterday. It’s rained almost every day the last 6 weeks. What a turnaround after a super dry first 6 months of the year
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR puts a legit bow through Frederick/Loudoun/Montgomery/Carroll counties right at sunset.
  8. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. It has risen >1 in just 14 days!
  9. Torch Tiger
    Perhaps we'll see a few showers/storms if an U/L digs across SE Canada next weekend. OTW very very dry
  10. canderson
    .35” so far. We’ll see if we get more later this afternoon/evening. I have a doubt we do.
  11. Torch Tiger
    Nasty dry day. At least it's sunny and mild
  12. mitchnick
    Still rising slowly.
  13. the_other_guy
    Looks like an El Nino tropical map to me
  14. so_whats_happening
    It did in 1997 just a few weeks earlier this go around. I don't yet know why but feel this will peak earlier than expected.
  15. jaxjagman
    Last typhoon that hit East China warmed the SSTS off East Asia especially East off Japan.Still myself would rather to see the PDO right now to rise and not fall.We might be seeing a repeat of the pattern we are in as we get closer to end of August into Sept. That strong WWB ongoing along with the Rossbly Waves should really kick off some tropical storms in the PAC the next few weeks
  16. jewell2188
    Seems as though on visible, clearing should progress west to east very shortly!
  17. Today
  18. midatlanticweather
    76/76 now but breezes from the south have been more steady and the lower foggy haze is lifting. Also seing very bright patches as the clouds seem to want to break up. Little patches of thinner clouds are showing up on satellite. We shall see if this enhances anything. Air is thick
  19. GaWx
    CFSv2 10 day run mean is still not backing off of a cold Feb in a large portion of the US, especially corridor from SE US to C Plains where most areas are a whopping 5-7.5F BN though I’d prefer Alaska and NW Canada be AN: Compare this to the same for Feb of 2024 from about the same 10 day mean in Aug of 2023:
  20. Baroclinic Zone
    Stone Cold Stunner of a day. Finally out in balcony relaxing.
  21. 87storms
    Periodic showers all day so far with neighborhood gauges showing 0.5”+.
  22. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    http://mencarevirtual.com/# MenCare Virtual
  23. Nomz
    I’d assume it’s just a humidity thing? I’ve been seeing a bunch as well up in Boston and basically the entire east coast has been blanketed in moisture this summer.
  24. vortex95
    Along the same lines, how does the RRFS do w/ TCs? And for that matter, the HRRR? We know the NAM (3 and 12 km) is terrible and was never designed for TCs, but the newer CAMs?
  25. vortex95
    Was told this by @wxmeddler. So @CoastalWx needs to shut up about calling it a "garbage model." It's bias is known and not on purpose! As I like to say, "would he prefer keeping the NAM?" The over-convection and "big blobs" on the RRFS is a known bias or "bug" with the FV3 Dynamical Core. This was explored recently by Lou Wicker at OU (See: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0230.1). In short, it can't really be fixed without significant changes to the core. OMD hasn't said it outright publicly but the original plan was to turn off the HRRR and RAP at the same time as the RRFS Operationalization. But they've scrapped that specifically because of the FV3 core issues. Now the plan is to turn off the HRRR and RAP when the RRFS transitions to the MPAS Core in ~2028. (https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/calendar/RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf)
  26. Wintrest
    Interesting. The mushrooms are indeed taking over. I’ve seen them in lawns (including my own) and parks that I never have before. Curious if anyone can speak to this.
  27. vortex95
    That's pretty good. Just thinking that in the summer, it not easy to snow in the tropics even at 14,000 ft, but even less likely when a TC is present b/c of its warm core nature, but PHTO sounding 16/00z showed it right at 0 C at this level.
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