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  2. Ginx snewx
    You will be snowing on Mansfield by next weekend and clean up in Dec. Watch
  3. jaxjagman
    The graph came from PolarWX,its free to use https://www.polarwx.com/
  4. Chris78
    I beleive they do but they have to make that decision over a week out. Hard to beleive they couldn't of flexed to a better game than these 2 pathetic teams.
  5. NC_hailstorm
    Space-weather parameters were employed as the primary triggering factors. Salute,excellent job here.
  6. nj2va
    I’m sure the NFL wishes they had flex scheduling this early in the season
  7. wncsnow
    I think I've seen this movie before..
  8. jaxjagman
    Not like it would be into winter,but still rather impressive this time of year ,least since the late 50's,but that still dont mean it will get that cold the next few weeks
  9. LibertyBell
    La ninas after el ninos are the best summers and winters. Hot dry summer followed by a snowy winter. I think this area did well too. I am highly suspect of weather records from the 1800s. Lake effect gets to here in the Poconos too. This is exactly what I mean and why I bring up 2001 as another analog. I am highly suspicious of any data from before the satellite era. You look like a mushroom cloud lol. I still think the Cretaceous event was far worse. That could have destroyed the entire planet an asteroid from space. It happened much more quickly too. Could you ever even imagine how terrified the dinosaurs were as their world came to such a catastrophic and sudden end? That was when the planet was at its most biodiverse that is the ideal climate. Chris that was a fluke localized event in late March 1998 no one besides Central Park saw much snow and it melted as soon as it fell. Dont expect that to happen again and it wasnt in the same ballpark as February 1983 or January 2016. We also had an SSW last year in November That can't be a coincidence Chris. I wouldn't take Luzerne County very seriously they are known for their drunk drivers. Lol he's one County west of me. Luzerne County is known for its drunk drivers I never go there. A few inches is possible in March but that's it. Yes March is no longer a snow month for NYC the last time they had a double digit snowfall there in March was in 1993. UHI also has something to do with it.
  10. FlashFreeze
    I was in Lennox MA for most of the last two weeks and on six days the low was in the 20s and the rest except for Friday weren’t far from freezing.
  11. Torch Tiger
    it'll be November eventually :x
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah there was a +500dm -NAO and near -500dm +PNA days before the Jan 2016 storm. One of the more extreme patterns on record.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. not this quickly, but it does stand to reason that CC will chip away at the bookends of the season first.
  14. psv88
    That’s why I said locally…I’m in western Suffolk
  15. michsnowfreak
    A shitty pattern for March snow in the 2020s does not mean nyc can't see snow in March these days. Really way too much stretching as always by bluewave. Ive had shitty Marches in the 2020s too outside 2023. I also saw 3.5" on Apr 17, 2020, 0.7" on May 11, 2020, 4.5" on Apr 20, 2021, 2" on Apr 18, 2022. Every winters pattern is different. Bluewave knows meteorology well but his "window" will always be smaller than everyone elses.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Figured I should post my Climatology research project proposal here! If any mets want to weigh in on how to best accomplish it let me know (though it really isn't supposed to be a crazy project). Otherwise the literature review might be helpful for those who want to know a bit more about the NAO/PNA influence on snowstorm climatology. Please ignore the grammar too it was 11pm when I submitted it. Climatology Proposal AMWX.pdf
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nov 30/Dec 1 +35 days Dec 15 +30 days Dec 31/Jan 1 +25-30 days Jan 15 +25 days Jan 30/Feb 1 +20-25 days Feb 14 +20 days Feb 28/Mar 1 +15-20 days Beyond Mar 15 +15 days That's only for a warm Stratosphere. Cold Stratosphere is +0days all the way across. Like a tornado squaring up the upper levels and ground layer.
  18. Today
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    We ended up getting a western PV lobe to phase in, which ruined that storm...I remember DT gave up on winter after that .
  20. GramaxRefugee
    October total rainfall 3.85". Highest temp 86. Lowest 37.
  21. powderfreak
    This time of year seems to max out radiational cooling with the low surface moisture. Dry leaf litter under bare trees, absolutely zero evapotranspiration because everything is dormant. Frequent high pressure and low sun angle. This evening locally is classic. Edge of Stowe Country Club station is 39F while just up West Hill is 46F. I’m at 40F north of there. Stowe Hollow has a 52F vs 40F over a half a mile.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is one of those AI jockeys like SnowBirdBob and all of those fools.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    I'm not entirely sure, but it just gave me similar vibes to the 2023 "Christmas snowstorm" where yes there was a trough in the east, but if the axis of the trough is offshore than that means you get nothing but cold. Additionally, notice the depth of that trough and the NAO/AO domain. It's all wrong to get a major snowstorm as the whole upper 500mb pattern is displaced hundreds of miles east of where it would need to be. You also generally don't want such a deep trough as it means the pattern will likely destroy itself after that one shot at snow due to atmospheric transport of warm air to the poles by such an intense system. If you're interested in learning a bit more here's my current Climatology research project. Climatology Proposal AMWX.pdf
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the correction....what was it for Dec- March. so I can check my numbers?
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, those are all warm ENSO events offered far less resistance to be the development of HLB...probably to an extremely neg AO season like those years.
  26. Stormchaserchuck1
    October is 45-60 days. November is 35-45 days, depending when in the month it happens.
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree, here.
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