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Worth noting that the LWX AFD says "Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon"

This will be the longest stretch of snow on the ground that I can remember. And that sleet will form a glacier essentially

Could just be the crazy uncle doing crazy things...but was just cold enough to put down a 6 inch swath

So is 20" of snow with an inch and a half of water content.

agreed. Slight improvement from 12z. CAD did its thing and only twds end did we taint down here. Goalposts are narrowing, and were all still in them. Good enough for me to sleep on. Hoping Euro ticks a touch colder (which seems like general consensus of 0z so far). Runnin outta ticks till bomb goes off. gnight kids.

Yep. I posted about that earlier today. When we get these NE flows on the backside dry air in the DGZ can be a mf#$%er unless your just down wind of an open lake. Models are taking their time juicing up at 700mb. BUT we also get some of our biggest snows once the moisture wraps around. Granted you're a little farther NW but I still think once the juice gets wrapped we could get a quasi double hit TROWAL type setup on the N/NW side. Thats where the extremely cold air is going to get smacked by a cross country warm source moisture filled slap. Trying to stay positive and thinking the GFS is off on this one. At least could be riding the line of single to double digits instead of dust to 2in

Great, an inch of rain apparently

Yes, you can catch up on your biology....

yeah. even assuming 12:1, that's a good hit. I'm going with noon flip for DC for now. seems about the right time for the infamous sound of pinging

Stupid Wankum...claiming ratios are decided by surface temps.

lol well that would be something. 7" snow to 2.5" sleet then .5" ZR? lol

LOL, sounds like my workplace. Last 14 years I was there I worked a 'temp 6 month changeover' going from a DOS system (yes, in 2009) to not one, but two systems that DID NOT communicate with each other (mainly because financial side wanted to 'see' everything and the actual machine/field side thought that system was too complicated). An interface was built to do the hand-offs, but it NEVER worked right and was a pure disaster at the first location down in Texas when we went down to put it online. That '6 month project' I rode out on until I retired, it did get slightly better the last 3 years, but wow. The 'savings' claimed by the folks that came up with that cost each location a minimum of four new people/positions to babysit and fix the errors/failures.

Expect nothing and it's all a gift. That's what life and weather has taught me.

I'm just along for the ride. It's just been fun having something to track. Models have their biases. In this type of situation though, you'll usually have steadier snow from persistent lift and then you'll have bands of snow with heavier amounts depending on where the various boundaries set up. For the WAA snows, if you look at the 850 MB and 700 MB temp advection maps you can see where the heavier snow sets up north of the strongest advection. It goes absolutely crazy on the NAM so that's probably why the higher amounts. The GFS/GDPS has this setup farther south and it isn't as strong. The vertical velocity will show the areas with persistent lift.

Yea I mentioned that earlier

Thats 1" more precip than the Euro in some spots.

That would be a cool storm. I get 8" snow followed by 3" of sleet and 0.5" freezing rain. That would definitely keep me out of school the whole week as well.

Still adds another 3-4 inches in far eastern areas after 12z, with around .2 qpf, with ratios.

1/23 00z UKIE running

The sleet will be on top of 8-12” of snow and on at the base so yes will be heavier to shovel but all good.

More sleet and snow. Those rates before the transition could be insane (3-4"/hr)