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Wish it could be 6 months of 80s 4 months of deep winter and 1 month fall and spring.

especially since its still 3 days away

It's kind of wild that just taking a random loop of the 06z GFS, we have like 3-4 distinct shortwaves over the next 10 days that dive into the eastern US and none of them can produce any meaningful QPF. Hopefully that changes, but this is quickly turning into a very dry winter if we can't get these things to produce anything.

I mean, it’s a little believable.

Not saying we wont get snow before this- I think we will- but this period offers a favorable h5 look for our region to get snow.

"Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). " That quote is from Don's post from yesterday - How you consider 0.2 below normal "warm" is beyond me.

We’re due for a March triple phaser.

It won't be normal. Depends on your definition of just below normal. Average CPK high temps in January are approx. 39.5 degrees.

Oh yes...February will definitely be RNA and probably March, too.

Yes, we know the cycle by now

Who would have thought...cold and dry is this CC dominated era.

Is this the can-kicking portion of the program?

I think it still eventually goes but I had said a week ago the +PNA was likely going to hold longer than ensembles showed. They've just been bad past about D8-10 this winter but reasonably good with the pattern ideas up til D10. I think the EPS at D16 may be showing signs of a breakdown coming soon after that. The evolution back to the -PNA may not be the typical shift west of the EPO/PNA ridge but may be the Pac jet smashing it down and then the -PNA evolving after that. If you loop the EPS from D14-16 it appear maybe if ran out to D20 that would be what happens.

just below or normal. It's looking like a two week cold stretch after thursday!

I want a dose of whatever the Ukie was serving last night

That’s right, quit chasing the shiny object, well said

At least January isn't entirely screwed. Ensemble snow means have been quite high.

Latest gfs now has a closed low over PA. Before it was looking like it would be south of our lat, though even in those runs it was a late phaser lol. Maybe we can get some snow showers from this as the colder air moves in.

Yea, think the AIEPS is still correcting...

18 for my low this morning. Still looking like and Advisory event Wednesday night and Thursday morning. I noticed the NAM models where a bit juicier overnight at the end of their runs. Next weekend is still worth monitoring. It's going to be very cold late this work week with windchill indices at or below zero!

Dont look at the surface. It leads to nothing but frustration. Look at the upper levels and you will see that we are going to chances. And we are heading into our prime climo. I am not really concerned at this point.

CPC is ending up with a disagreement out there toward the 20th

In Knox Co… I know this is Captain obvious but it’s a must to live at or north of a line from Powell to Halls to Gibbs to get snow that the majority of Knox Co won’t see. The temp difference between Ft City to Halls is very unique. In a couple of mile span, it is normal for Halls to be 5-8 degrees colder than Ft City. Hard to explain. .

18 and heavy frost this morning. Glad the the winds have settled down.

From here on out, I will follow the sage, "Ji". His word is always true! "The model that shows the least snow always wins." I will only focus on the model with the least, then I will not be disappointed!