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I guess because we've seen this story too many times. 99 times out of 100 if a storm is headed OTS on most of the 100hr models, it stays that way. Especially in these type of complex situations. There is a reason why 10 inch snowstorms are being treated by the public as historic now. Because at this point, they are. It just isn't likely. Our climo usually wins despite what the models say.

Any one else notice that line snow squall line moving thru Cleveland? It would be interesting if it would hold together and move thru here early this evening.

Yeah, looking at the op, I'm not sure why it hesitates for so long before deepening. Doesn't make much sense to me

18z ICON Eps does not agree with its OP. Sends about the same amount of precip back west as 12z maybe a tad more in some spots.

ICON even worse. Basically no snow even for the SE.

Yeah it has some BIG hits mixed in...

Yeah that is a rather noticeable shift

NWS mets actually analyze the data and don’t flip flop and panic like a bunch of weather board weenies.

Anyone know if there's any hurricane Hunter planes out there to get better sampling? Like they did with last week. And if so has data been ingested into 18z?

I misread that thanks! You are right

@Burghblizz Not sure if this squall line holds together or how far south it will extend, but looks like at least Butler Co should see it come through if you take it due east. It is getting very dark here. Looks like snow.

VERY valid advice here. While I posted a somewhat common sense intepretation from Gemini's interpretation from WeatherNext 2.0 earlier....when I ask the same of Gemini on my GoogleTV, it tells me that highs on Sat/Sun this weekend are going to be in the 50s, with lows in low 40s, with NO precipitation. So yeah, always confirm and double-check AI interpretations...the hallucinations are very real.

We will learn alot about the models as to how this plays out

Baltimore County is closed tomorrow (Wednesday). The 2 hours late may be for Thursday

FWIW... the ICON ensemble has a noticeably larger number of lows along the coast compared to 12z. Not sure it follows the op's idea of splitting the energy.

the #1 rule of looking at model trends: The trends I like will continue. The trends I don't like are flukes.

Its the ICON, we toss.

That is an impressive squall... wonder if there will be any thunder with it. Hopefully it strengthens as it moves east

ICON really not good

Nice for them to talk to me like this

I’m in until 12z Thursday think we may see some changes at this point coastal sections could still be in trouble due to a strong onshore flow. I cannot ignore what the gfs was selling last week 977 mb east of NJ then lose it only for the Euro to pick it up 18z to 6z Sunday to Monday then lose it. still a lot of waffling I’d like to see play out either way next 25-36 hours I think we will know. Therefore yes I’m in!

A blend of the 12z Allen Iversons (AIs) would put I-95 on the western fringe.

Icon didnt close off soon enough.

Kind of weird. It somewhat splits towards the end of the run which is very unlike what we've seen on other models