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The total snowfall map that BRICK posted. That will NOT be all snow.

Can anyone with WeatherBELL access pull the Euro-AI Ensemble snow total plumes for Huntsville?

The euro AI was a little colder and farther south. It definitely gets warmer between 700-and 850 on both euro models

Hurricane hunters dropsondes planned:

I’m certainly not knowledgeable enough to argue with him on that but most others Mets are saying that a slower ejection increases the risk of phasing, and gives the TPV lobe and HP more time to start retreating, opening the door for more north trends. I guess a slower ejection can be good but only if the northern stream wave doesn’t also slow down and dig more west to phase?

Right now, I'm thinking 6-8” of combined snow/ice for my location. That will likely adjust in short time.

We get over a foot.

Oh boy oh boy oh boy

No matter what the models are showing he always likes to crap on everything with the worst possible outcome.

I see the GFS like this. It was taking drugs. At 0z it stopped, and progress was going good at 6z. But then it went into withdrawal. Needs some therapy before going back to normal.

Could be worse lol

Gonna be a total weenie here but wish we could get better rates. The longevity of this storm is what makes it impactful for us... along with the "ratios"

This thing clearly has plenty of quantitative precipitation to work with that is for sure. Definitely gonna be a mess, but this is going to be a big event.

There has been a bit of a trend on all 12Z models today of trailing some energy behind, but enough gets involved that we get a moderate hit. Still plenty of time for improvements. What's weird is that it used to be a very obvious bias of the GFS to eject energy too quickly, and the Euro tended to always bury it in the SW and leave it behind. It seems like lately the opposite has been the case.

I do not think I can recall the "heavy snow" wording this far out in the NWS forecast for Nashville. It is a fine line, no one wants to create a run on the grocery stores but yet at the same time, want to get everyone prepared.

Can anyone with WeatherBELL access the 12z Euro-AI ensemble plumes for Huntsville?

The 12z euro is a bit of everything. Goes from heavy snow to heavy sleet to freezing rain back to snow... Pretty much a mess. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Essentially the EURO does not have the blocking quite as strong as the GFS thus the differences in precip type at this point. Both are indicating ample moisture availability regardless of blocking.

I see you lurking Mr. East, thoughts?

The GFS did start caving - and has been for days. It fully capitulated last night. This is just a brief relapse.

Just saying for many of us in here, the front end portion of the storm on the EC was still a warning level event before the coastal enhancement. SWFE’s around here tend to surprise in a positive direction. Keep that in mind. Idk if you guys remember the forecasts going into Feb 2014, but we obliterated the forecasts on the SWF portion of that storm and exceeded expectations. This storm has that type of potential. That connection of moisture between 925-500mb is incredibly healthy. We just need the general synoptics to hold. This is a southern stream addition we haven’t had in a while. That will make a difference to who gets hit the hardest.

For the last time, not one single person has even said this. EVERYONE knows precip types are not even close to being set. Read more and post less if this is the best you can do.

How many times in the past have we been sweating the inevitable NW trend and WTOD. Still a long way to go but good model trends for a widespread snowfall throughout OH.

Looking at the 3hr/snow maps, barring ratios, the hourly snowfall totals honestly aren't that all impressive... like .55-.75"/hr. Wish I knew more about airport operations, but if you feel like you can get there, I feel like the airports may be able to keep up.