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Here is a good table for why I do not like the NHC products Hurricane & Landfall Location Real-Time NHC Landfall Advisory Highest Validated Land-Based Sustained Wind The Highest Reporting Land Station Milton (2024) Siesta Key, FL 120 mph (Category 3) 78 mph Venice, FL (Mote Marine Laboratory) Idalia (2023) Keaton Beach, FL 125 mph (Category 3) 81 mph Keaton Beach, FL (WeatherFlow) Ian (2022) Cayo Costa, FL 150 mph (Category 4) 98 mph Cape Coral, FL (WeatherFlow) Ida (2021) Port Fourchon, LA 150 mph (Category 4) 95 mph Southwest Pass, LA (Marine Tower) Laura (2020) Cameron, LA 150 mph (Category 4) 101 mph Calcasieu Pass, LA (NOS Station) Michael (2018) Tyndall AFB, FL 160 mph (Category 5) 118 mph Tyndall Air Force Base, FL Irma (2017) Cudjoe Key, FL 130 mph (Category 4) 111 mph Carysfort Reef Light, FL (Marine Tower) Harvey (2017) Rockport, TX 130 mph (Category 4) 102 mph Aransas Pass, TX (NOS Station) Ike (2008) Galveston, TX 110 mph (Category 2) 86 mph Crabbs Prairie, TX

What a difference 8 hours makes

No it is just the frustation I have with the NHC and their products.

10am to noon

Because Things don’t always work like a model showing 40k shear ripping things apart . So I look at what’s been happening last 25 year that’s different than 25 before that . These storms intensify or hold their own moving onshore or onto land now. I just don’t remember that from 50’s into 90’s You mentioned how it can align some with the shear direction and does not weaken as much . .

We have 22 more days, let things play out a bit.

Is this your first hurricane landfall?

The product says it all

We also know that the NHC never drops the wind speeds like the should on a hurricane that has moved over land... they only decrease it like 5 or 10 MPH at each advisory.

Yeah that’s my point. Those offshore sustained winds rarely get measured onshore. Idk why people here think those NHC operational winds will tear through the landfall zone. The gusts imo tell the story. They’re legit.

Not really. It's a measurement taken over water, friction reduces the higher sustained winds as it comes on land.

Thank you so much for your reports. I hope you and your family/property make it through ok. Slim pickings the last two seasons. Hurricane chaser convergence is an interesting experience.

Wrong... when they say 105 MPH per hour... that means sustained... and there is no way any place over land will see those kinds of winds

What's start time Sunday?

Right at landfall. Good short range forecast by GDM and a few others.

Do yo have an elevation of the anemometer height?

Max winds at 105 looks about right given onshore obs and gusts. Y’all do this every hurricane lol.

Shear was maybe delayed but not denied lol it tore this thing apart upon landfall

A wind gust to 116 mph (187 km/h) with a sustained wind of 91 mph (146 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station near Santa Rosa Sound, Florida. A wind gust to 100 mph (161 km/h) with a sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherSTEM station near Pensacola, Florida.

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 830 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DESTIN FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IMPACTING THE GULF COAST AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND... NWS Doppler Radar data indicate that Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, around 830 PM CDT (0130 UTC) with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches). A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge in Panama City Beach, Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.6 feet above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. A wind gust to 116 mph (187 km/h) with a sustained wind of 91 mph (146 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station near Santa Rosa Sound, Florida. A wind gust to 100 mph (161 km/h) with a sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherSTEM station near Pensacola, Florida. SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 86.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

There are a bazillion chasers out there so it's pretty well sampled. And I'm having a hard time seeing much more than just about sustained hurricane force winds on a few feeds and gusts on the upper end of a 1 as the 'eye' is moving ashore.

Landfall Destin officially just now.

I will be surprised to see any sustained hurricane force winds over land anywhere.

A Dec to end of Feb would be a good run, once we hit March even a good storm starts to melt quick. Ideally I'd like a storm in the beginning of Dec and have a pack til the beginning of March.