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The latest BoA relative was just released. As expected, it cooled way down from the April Nino 3.4 prog of +0.6 as it is now a much more realistic -0.2 (that might actually end up slightly too cool as it might verify -0.1 to 0.0). However, despite that marked cooling of April, it warmed for its Sept prog from ~+2.35 to +2.6. Also, this is the first run with Oct, which it has at ~+2.9. On the one hand, one should keep in mind how much it overdid ONI in 2023. OTOH, this latest has RONI near the level it had ONI in 2023. So, although we should be aware of a quite possible warm bias at play here thus causing the RONI prog to be overstated, we should also be aware that it is currently implicitly progging ~0.5C warmer RONI vs 2023. Keep in mind that RONI peaked at only ~+1.5 in 2023-4. We’re very likely headed to a significantly warmer RONI peak in 2026-7: BoA RONI prog from 2 weeks ago: a ridiculous +0.6 April and a +2.35 Sept: Today’s BoA RONI prog: much more realistic cooler -0.2 April but Sept a warmer +2.6; first run with Oct (+2.9):

Got 0.12" in ATL metro Saturday. FFC mentions multiple rounds of rain coming this week but also said models may be underrepresenting dry conditions and most won't see much more than an inch.

Hmm - this implies annual oscillation of the Earth's temperature, does it not? I didn't think that was a thing. I know there are oscillations, but they tend to be correlated with ENSO cycles and such, do they not? IOW - seems to me this is just a subset of global mean temperature - e.g. the northern hemisphere only, is it not?

Nah. Old chasing friend of mine was trying to talk me into going with him last night. We've been talking about this setup, the potential mess it could be most of the weekend. That's the area, IMO, I'd be IF I were chasing. I decided not to go. He left last night is in a hotel just S of Springfield. I'll be playing base camp for him lol. Do believe for any lone sups its gonna be highest chance in that area. Could be a lot of embedded sups and MCV spin ups but chasing those just sux. Think kind of like the last system, Tail End Charlies will be best isolated sup options when you get bows and shrimps like this setup could be full of. Like you said that area just got elevated to MOD so yeah, thats a good call IMO if your going. Anything isolated East into IL/IN is probably going to be close to or after dark. Another reason I'm not going. Good chance for a late night MCS/MCV rolling through here. I've got a donkey, 2 goats and 2 dogs. They get quite upset when there's big thunder dragons outside lol. Good luck to anyone who dares and be safe. Idiots IPhones and storms don't mix lol.

Mother's day was always the hope. Looks like some are still trying to put lipstick on the pig, even though the models have been consistent about this for about 2 weeks now.

You need to suffer another 15 years of it and then you'll be as iron-hulled to it as the ships Labrador never claimed. You'll limp into port every spring surviving by the notion that 70 in May is actually a motherfucking bargain and you'll be happy. ha! If it is 70 and with more sun than cloud days ...? Shiiiii I'm calling that a relative win and a day. But yeah.. looks like in 2 weeks when the April/NASA numbers are out, the graph will again register that whether we are above normal for April or not, we will in comparison to everywhere else, be below ... every where else. Since October, 2025 we've be winning that distinction, save for one or two weak argument months. Altho... heh at any time NASA may cease to exist because of the creepy "operation silence the consilience" going on.

Today is a stunner though. Went into work late so I could sit in the sun with my coffee and listen to the birds.

61 / 48 off a low of 35. Nicest day of the week coming up. Not bad Tuesday but clouds build in ahead of the next batch of rain on Wed/Thu. Continued cool and possibly wet one or the whole weekend. Moderation betwen May 5 - 9th and next shot at 70s or warmer then but it may take till mid month to push heights / riding east for any persistent tineframe.

Losing May is like losing December in the winter.

Hopefully things shift by mid May.

Pattern blows. Getting 70 in may is meh. Constant troughing with shit settling in later this week.

The relative weeklies centered on last week were released this morning. They as expected based on following the dailies show a slowdown in the rate of warming in 3.4 and 3 (from 0.4 the prior week to 0.1 last week). Also, note that Nino 4 cooled 0.1. Nino 1+2, which is more volatile since it covers a much smaller area, cooled 0.3. I expect that this cooling there is just a blip that will reverse soon: Date………………...1+2………3………3.4……..4 08APR2026 1.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 22APR2026 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Not a great or warm AN pattern by any means but as long as sun comes out it’s warm inland

yep acatt way overblown with those death sentence calls and charts last week

There’s also a solid signal for a few warmer days next week . Couple days of 70 again ahead of the next front . There’s always doom and gloom posts but then you get a bunch of decent to very good days mixed in

Tomorrow as well

^Thanks. It’s no doubt an extremely warm OHC for so early thanks largely to the very rapid rate of warming earlier this month. That’s why I posted the comparison. However, I feel it’s also important that we keep in mind that this, like ONI, is a measure that is not “relative” to up to date ocean warming. So, in that regard, it’s a bit overdone to the warm side just like ONI is a bit overdone to the warm side in relation to RONI. @bluewave @snowman19

Warmest day in weeks today?

70 for most. Easy.

It’ll be 67-70 here

4 days to go Equal to the number of goals the Bruins allowed in the first period in game 4

You may have gotten more up your way. When I looked at radar NE of me looked to have a bit heavier and wider swath of rain than down here.

what an environment that will be in place across eastern Missouri today. CAMs have been incredibly nasty around the STL market. Going to be wild there today

Moderate now for parts of Missouri and Illinois. I feel somewhat vindicated.

34 this morning, 1.27" of rain this weekend.