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  2. The key will be whether it moves to west based later in the winter. East based, they're right we will roast ala 2015-16 (outside of 2 weeks)
  3. If even people predicted a cold and snowy winter, its too early for winter predictions. This winter doesnt look as bad as people are making it out to be. This winter will not be as cold as last winter though.
  4. I had a visit with my crazy mother this morning so I’m at Cushwa in Columbia raising my spirits.
  5. Here's something for you to watch. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  7. I want another month, then 3 October’s, then Jan/feb, then 3 May’s. Deep fall and early spring are suspect here.
  8. lots of colors starting to pop in some areas.. beautiful crisp night incoming!! windows open and fan on.. I'll be sleeping like a baby while wifey looks for a 20th blanket
  9. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  10. Bingo. Rarely see September change patterns these days. Hot dry crunchy leaves.
  11. The dumbest choice for a shovel pass
  12. Fall 2019 was similar, at least in turns of a long, drawn-out, hot fall with a sudden dramatic change in mid/late October. The heat wave culminated in the infamous "100 degree day" at RDU on October 3 (one of the first times I remember skepticism on this site with RDU being at least 2 degrees warner than any other site in the area). Within a relatively short amount of time after a 100 degree day, there were flurries somewhere in the state.
  13. Mm... not going to defend that meme, no... however, it smacked me as more of the humorist voice - an attempt at sarcasm, perhaps sardonic giggles. I do that sometimes. I write something outlandish, with vivid descriptions of the physicality in dire consequences, over-the-top, as though people are in the room with me and can actually hear my tone of voice. Oops... It may be possible this was where he was coming from - if he had just said something like 'nyuk nyuk' on the end of it, you could hear that as Jay Leno-ism sarcastic barb
  14. What if there is blocking and a negative epo ?
  15. Today
  16. what if there's never just enough cold because of the strongest el nino in history
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  18. I think warm and wet should be the default forecast for the upcoming winter. However, unlike the lowest snow winters which tended to be low qpf, there will be snow imho ranging from 50-80% of normal. It should be quite stormy but the majority of the storms will probably be wet. However as others have mentioned, it takes 1-2 big events with just enough cold to allow snow to bring totals close to normal hence the 80% ceiling.
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