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never forget that your area is ground zero for the flames of the nino torch

This ongoing and still strengthening El-Nino has allowed the 2026 tropical season (Pacific and Atlantic) to follow the Nino playbook to the letter and then some. If the coming Fall and Winter follow the Nino playbook as well as the tropical season has it is going to be a rough season for many in this sub forum. I'm taking an expect the worst and hope for the best approach. I think above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures (DJF) are pretty much a lock. We need to hope for a wet system to time itself with whatever cold air we can muster. Maybe we get a "big one" that way? Might be a big ask though. Maybe a more Modoki El-Nino can better save the day but think that is also a big ask. We'll see how we progress through Fall and go from there but keep expectations low. I suspect most sensible winter weather lovers are bracing for the reality that this Winter might suck.

Hate when that happens. .

You had me at hello NWS Upton A southern stream shortwave passing over the area late tonight into Sunday morning with will tap into a tropical airmass (can see this plume of moisture on GOES-EAST Water Vapor over the southeast) with PWATs increasing to 2-2.3" by early Sunday morning. A warm front will also approach the area and potentially set up somewhere over the coast/Long Island on Sunday morning. A weak wave of low pressure may also track along the warm front. These ingredients will lead to showers with heavy downpours and a few thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday morning.

Yeah, not so sure one is needed for this upcoming event. Seems a bit over zealous. Then again we've had a lot of local over performers this season.

63 was my low. I really need rain - it is so so dry - so hope we get some good stuff overnight.

It’s either that, or it’s showing above normal heights due to Pacific puke air. I’d rather the former.

N MD drought status might start inching up a category if some of the long range heavy rain scenarios don’t pan out in the 20-25th period

yes. you set an all time low record with an east based super nino and this event is even stronger and more east based

0.56" of rain yesterday. A general 1/2" around the TH area. 2.01" MTD, so doing well, but need more to break drought. A line of stronger stms up N produced 1" hail, and uprooted trees with 1-2+" of rain.

They toss them out like Halloween candy. I was thinking the same thing.

I think I’d like that ridging north. Visions of garbage airmasses dancing in my head with that.

I was not on this site when that happened. How many people were announcing last rites in December 2015?

I like the one with ODB.

Im well aware it can go both ways. And ive said many times I expect a warm (relative to climo) December. YOU act like it can't go either way. Feb 1998 with a trace of snow at Detroit set an all time low record, but the winter as a whole still saw 23.4" snow and 30 days with 1"+ snowcover. Strong Ninos since 1878 have a range at Detroit of 20-45" snow, and I think 30-35" is a reasonable guess for this winter. Below avg, but not record territory.

September 12 1982: Two tornadoes touch down in Benton County. The F2 tornado causes $250,000 worth of damage, and an F0 tornado causes $25,000. 1931: The fifth consecutive day of 90 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area. 1923: Winter weather pays an early visit to northern Minnesota. The cities of Roseau and Virginia receive flurries and sleet. (Note: Two Harbors recorded a T in the snow column this day, but was it snow or sleet or both?) 1903: 4.96 inches of rain fall in the Minneapolis area. 1869: A hail storm between 1 and 3 am breaks windows and causes considerable damage to late vegetables at Madilia in Watonwan County. For Saturday, September 12, 2026 1882 - Hot and dry winds caused tree foliage in eastern Kansas to wither and crumble. (David Ludlum) 1977 - Thunderstorms deluged the Kansas City area with torrential rains in the early morning hours, and then again that evening. Some places were deluged with more than six inches of rain twice that day, with up to 18 inches of rain reported at Independence MO. Flooding claimed the lives of 25 persons. The Country Club Plaza area was hardest hit. 2000 vehicles had to be towed following the storm, 150 of which had to be pulled out of Brush Creek, which runs through the Plaza area. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) 1979 - Hurricane Frederick smashed into the Mobile Bay area of Alabama packing 132 mph winds. Winds gusts to 145 mph were reported as the eye of the hurricane moved over Dauphin Island AL, just west of Mobile. Frederick produced a fifteen foot storm surge near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The hurricane was the costliest in U.S. history causing 2.3 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain which caused flooding in North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Parts of Virginia received 3 to 4 inches of rain in just two hours early in the day. Later in the day, three to five inch rains deluged Cumberland County of south central Pennsylvania. Evening thunderstorms produced seven inches of rain at Marysville PA, most of which fell in three hours time. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - An afternoon thunderstorm spawned a tornado which skipped across northern sections of Indianapolis IN damaging roofs and automobiles. It was the first tornado in central Indiana in September in nearly forty years of records. Hurricane Gilbert plowed across the island of Jamaica, and by the end of the day was headed for the Cayman Islands, packing winds of 125 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Snow whitened the mountains and foothills of northeastern Colorado, with eight inches reported at Buckhorn Mountain, west of Fort Collins. Two to three inches fell around Denver, causing great havoc during the evening rush hour. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region between mid afternoon and early the next morning. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Roswell NM, and wind gusts greater than 98 mph at Henryetta OK. Thunderstorms also produced torrential rains, with more than seven inches at Scotland TX, and more than six inches at Yukon OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 12 Sat National Video Games Day 12 Sat National Chocolate Milkshake Day 12 Sat Carl Garner Federal Lands Cleanup Day 12 Sat National Pet Memorial Day 12 Sat International Day for South-South Cooperation 12 Sat National Day of Encouragement 12 Sat National Report Medicare Fraud Day 12 Sat National Police Woman Day 12 Sat United Nations Day for South-South Cooperation

In fairness the modeling abruptly changed over the past week.

BARELY set a new record 'warm minimum' with 67.2 degrees here, record was 67 from 1989.

Must be a record for the amount of flood watches we've had this summer