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  2. stormy
    Thank you! I do appreciate your interest in this. I have followed the Drought Monitor closely for years and have had faith in its veracity until in recent months. I closely monitor water and soil conditions for some rather large agricultural interests, both topsoil and underground water table. Back in late February when our Augusta water table was 21 ft. below normal, the U.S. Drought Monitor placed Augusta in moderate drought. In late June when our water table had recovered to only 2 ft. below normal after a very wet May, the drought Monitor placed us in severe to Extreme Drought. Go figure On May 19, Augusta was all extreme. Northern Va. was all severe. On June 30, most of northern Va. down to central Rockingham had been downgraded to moderate drought. Augusta was and remains in severe to extreme. I can no longer trust the U.S. Drought Monitor as a reliable source of information.
  3. wxdude64
    Two consecutive back to back 0.01" readings, rocking here! Course, soon as I type this it starts raining lol.
  4. snowman19
    FWIW here is the new JMA El Niño forecast….same as all the other models this month….showing a historic event
  5. pawatch
    They are forecasting 98 degrees on Tuesday. That’s still pretty warm. I would be happy if we didn’t set anymore heat records.
  6. MANDA
    MANDA changed their profile photo
  7. DavisStraight
    Same here, was cloudy earlier but cleared up nicely.
  8. canderson
    Thundering and it appears it’s about to pour rain again. The flooding in SE Missouri is catastrophic. 12”+ rain today!
  9. ChescoWx
    Who can spot the significant warming of the USA away from our urban heat islands?? This looks a whole lot like Chester County PA - I bet you NCEI chilled the 1920's and 1930's - I always said there is no climate fence around any county!
  10. John1122
    Looks like the southern valley is getting raked by some pretty good storms. We've had about a half inch of rain since midnight here but zero thunder.
  11. Today
  12. Chrisrotary12
    60 second sun shower just passed over. Hooray!
  13. chubbs
    The science we are talking about is settled and you don't understand it. The average of Phoenixville, Coatesville and West Chester is as warm as the Philadelphia Airport and the Newark Ag station in the early 1940s. The COOP average dropped steadily after 1945 due to cooling moves at Coatesville (1946,48), Phoenixville (1948) and West Chester (1970). By the early 1970s the Coop Avg had dropped to just above Allentown. NCEI was much more stable than the COOP average, staying just above Allentown the entire period. NCEI isn't fooled by station moves. The mistake you are making is assuming that the average of the COOP stations is a good estimate of the county average temperature. That certainly isn't the case before 1970 when the COOP stations are much warmer than the County as a whole.
  14. WxUSAF
    Light rain about to reach God’s Forsaken Lands (Stephen’s City)
  15. KakashiHatake2000
    SPC just upgraded day 2 outlook for tomorrow slight risk pushed further in tn now in west and middle tn has 2% in northern and northwest part of west and middle tn 5-15% risk expanded into west and middle tn and a 5% hail risk no cig level hatching https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day2otlk_20260710_1730.html .
  16. SnowtoRain
    Here is how those determinations are made: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData/DroughtClassification.aspx. Summer rainfall does not generally help relieve longer term drought conditions that are dictated by year-on-year water budgets but can help sustain vegetation over the short term.
  17. Voyager
    Strange goings on here in the Skook. High clouds with the sun shining through, but spitting raindrops from time to time.
  18. stormy
    Augusta County is mostly green and growing. My lawn looks quite lush and green for nearly mid July. The U.S. Drought Monitor has not changed since June 1 and keeps Augusta in Severe to Extreme Drought. Truly amazing.
  19. NEG NAO
    last weeks power outages were a warning - we will have widespread massive power outages again if we are hit by a cat 1 or 2 hurricane - aging infrastructure has a lot to do with it. Many telephone poles are very old and need to be replaced - the same with transformers on those poles - ever notice a rusting transformer ? Plus these towns are allowing various cable companies add their wire and equipment to the old poles .
  20. Santa Claus
    can i come
  21. ravensrule
    That was a great winter, unfortunately only us two remember it.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    What about on the edge of an actual MD day? I always find those worse.
  23. high risk
    This has all of the makings of a "pity MD" day.
  24. mayjawintastawm
    Amazing how they are so consistent in forming as widely scattered light storms then really blowing up about 40-50 miles east of the Metro and consolidating. Yesterday the line was solid from more or less Scottsbluff down to south of La Junta. Glad I was not trying to fly into DEN.
  25. GaWx
    After rising to -0.19 on June 24th, the CFS daily PDO has since plunged and is as of July 9th down to -1.50, which is the lowest daily PDO since way back on Nov 8th!
  26. ChescoWx
    I hear this is his first stop! LOL!
  27. GaWx
    The TAO buoy data, including the Dateline data found at the links below, totally confirms Roundy’s noting of the lack of a consistent 30C isotherm E of the Dateline in 1997 when considering SSTs along the 180 and 170W longitudes and comparing those to 1997 to 2026. But it’s also important to keep in mind that there’s been a large amount of GW since 1997. So, that by itself gives 2026 a significant advantage. That’s of course why relative measures have been incorporated in products by NOAA and some others worldwide. That being said, this isn’t meant to minimize the significance of what Roundy said as it’s still a big deal! That’s the beauty of the SOI. It doesn’t appear to be substantially affected by GW and thus the comparison to past years. TAO buoy historical data: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data1897934/sst5s180w_dy.ascii https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data1897934/sst0n180w_dy.ascii
  28. SouthCoastMA
    random pop up shower overhead, with partly sunny skies but not enough to fully wet the ground very tropical, 84/72 of course, most of it misses me by a mile or 2
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