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Next sunday

6z GFS for this 24 hr period and its still snowing in some spots. Not taken literally cause its next weekend but something to watch again... lol

Mt. Holly cut back totals over SNJ.

6z GFS is big time for Feb 1

Damn….this isn’t even all the way out there in fantasy land.

Forky likes that storm

Holy crap at the 06z GFS fantasy storm.

Looks like everything held overnight. Good stuff. The winter storm warning says 10-14”.

My forecast now calls for 2-4 inches of snow, plus .2-.4 zr. No warning issued though.

Updated percentage chance of hitting or exceeding 8” snowfall before flipping. For reference, DCA is at the 50% threshold.

Neither Jeff nor I even have a watch up. There's always this though from the GYX AFD: he mere proximity to this moisture advection will mean a powerful conversion when the cold airmass overhead can support snow to liquid ratios north of 15 to 1. NBM mean brings values towards 18-20 to 1 into the region.

It's pretty clear that DC and east is going to be a massive sleet bomb. Such a bummer. Record cold and still can't snow lol.

Feels like Lucy pulled the football back on us in S KS overnight. We went from sharing in the big totals with you guys to the southeast, to having 6-8 inches. Hoping for a slight northward trend, but I think the models finally have a good grasp on the Arctic air and track of the second wave, so it probably won't happen. Bummer.

Thank you for showing a Mid-Atlantic view.

6z GFS has the storm for next weekend to. CMC ensembles for that potential as well

New Mattapoisett forecast calls for a change to sleet Sunday nigiht. Too bad we can move the mix line north but the qpf field isn't moving with it. Sunday Night Snow before 3am, then sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

I gotta agree. Watching the NAM closely and not ignoring it. To blindly write it off as wrong is setting yourself up for disappointment. At least keep it in the back of your mind. If it is doing this on the 12Z runs tomorrow believe it. Still early enough for pause with it as of now.

Woof .

6z GFS has a Thursday clipper. 2-3" for N VA/DC/Central MD with an inch or so surrounding that.

Still some red flags for me to go 18-24. Things anSWFE type deal after all with no closed 700 low. Just a thump of big time WAA. You really need a good CCB to help with that. The monday stuff is light as modeled even if you add a fluff factor. Not to mention it slots aloft as well.

00z geps had a big time signal for the Feb 1-3 period 6z AiGFS has a MECS 6z GFS elongated TPV, phasing Fun times ahead hopefully .

@TSSN+ All I’m saying is if you shave 2-3” off the GFS to account for it’s known issue not seeing mid level warmth these are all getting pretty close now. gfs rgem 0z euro

NAM is only 0.4 qpf for dc pre flip, ive learned that when the NAM shows a mixing related disaster scenario, take it seriously. Not saying its gonna happen, hopefully its still figuring out the Synoptics, but don’t write it off.

The 3k NAM drops over two inches of zr over Holston.

I've been happy with seeing greater than 0.5 of QPF on every model except the GFS up here, give me 6 inches of snow and I'll groom every trail out nice. This wasn't even supposed to be a Maine storm until a few days ago so this is all bonus!