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I guess you all miss the verification scores of the EPS/GEFS vs the ops at this lead time…it’s not even close.

The EC-AIFS single skill data available online is the leader through 120 hrs. I have seen the EPS-AIFS data through day 10 and it slightly edges out the regular EPS. But it’s still close. I have noticed the single EC-AIFS show volatility beyond 120 here like the other guidance in regard to storm tracks. This is one situation we we actually want a stronger Southeast ridge so the best overrunning occurs closer to our area. But the storm is still modeled beyond the best 120hr range so we are just going to have to take a wait and see approach. The Euro following the upgrade around 2014 had been too suppressed with East Coast storm systems. With the GFS becoming very volatile since its upgrade in 2019. EC-AIFS better Southeast ridge Regular Euro weaker Southeast ridge.

AIFS

Which has done better this season?

Managed another 1/2 or so on the street at the plow cleared a little over an hour ago. Coming down steadily----but I think the end is in sight. Heading to Pit1 shortly.

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Yeah I can't quite by those right now. Until we see less suppression from the regulars, the AIs are a bit alone.

You need a new shtick. I was all over this storm.

yes Richmond VA as ground zero… 5 days, but this is not a complex setup. No multiple shortwaves or potential phasing of streams type variability. I’m seeing most of the forecast is about a significant arctic airmass… the shortwave will ride the boundary… That’s it. I think we gain a day or two of guidance accuracy given the lack of complexity here.

Hey at least we have AL's models on our side

lol yup

one step closer to purple than we usually get

Euro does, but not the Euro AIFS

Thank you for posting Walt. Hope you’re feeling well, please don’t give up on us.

I'm telling you especially if you live north

Well IMO he's partially right, the -NAO obviously helps but it's mainly because a 1050 high squashes everything

Here's another real test to see how legit these AI models are.

are you enjoying the snow that you said wasn't coming?

Well one thing is for sure.. Its going to be cold this weekend! Let’s just hope it doesn’t get too cold that it suppresses the whole storm more south…(that seems the way things have trended the past few years) Depending how early it starts on Saturday…I can see some ice mixing in for awhile.. Hopefully this area can avoid the dry area curse and get a nice 4-8 inch storm with some ice mixing in at times … With the cold air forecast.. It will definitely stick around a few days… Still too early to predict how it will go, but know how it normally turns out when we are in the bullseye this early…

And I will add, we will probably make a run at zero or below those that have a snowpack for Monday morning next week

Rippin fatties here too

they did so good with the last storm

At this stage every model was, euro and gfs were completely out to see 48-60 hours out for Sunday's storm

Oh my bad I was looking at the gifs in the wrong order, lol Darn it