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Right... I mean I just mentioned to wise-ass ( lol ) that it's not physically impossible.. I just wasn't going to get into a whole UVM 'stokes discussion about why latent heat release lowers heights ... Question is, how much. The other thing ... something happened about 10 or 15 years ago with modeling, et al. The general technological behavior seemed to unilaterally reverse. What used to be missed in the late mid range, suddenly became over amplified. We colloquially refer to this as 'model magnification' but it's not like that's not doing that anymore. It's still a real tendency/hasn't gone away. Not having substantive S/W input into the arena, then ending up with multiple contours ... mmm sort smacks as a candidate for that oversell routine.

Still looks much more seasonable for us, than what we've been dealing with. I can't say the say the same for the central Ohio Valley.

Yep ended up with 1.32 here

Im walking in the Tunnels2Towers event on Sunday. As much as I want this storm to hit , I hope its a dry day.

I noticed that too, it’s a subtle shortwave then all the sudden it deepens with multiple contours at H5. But I think that’s also in response to cyclogenesis too. We see that in winter a lot, only strong s/w and more closed contours at H5. I don’t necessarily have an issue how it’s modeled, it’s more the track and how each vort lobe location dictates where the low migrates to.

I know, but I think I'd eventually have issues with it backing into Ginxy's dog kennel like that.

Took the words right out of my mouth.

Obviously we are weenie projecting, but decent NNE ageo flow there with strong HP N and NW.

I know what he meant ... but in 'quantization of correctness', if one model has a single run that is correct and no other model shares in that distinction, that model is better than the other guidance. Frankly, I don't like this event for the way it is handled in the models, regardless. I won't downplay the intrigue, tho. With an at first isolated cold profile, then going hybrid core, the Euro solution appears to do a weak 'perfect storm' sort of hint there. Pretty fantastic and certainly entertaining at a minimum. But the issue I'm having is that this feed into the region is unremarkable. There seems to be some spontaneity in the behavior of lowering heights, and that's dubious in terms of handling for me. They appear to be deepening the whole construct/evolution from the non-linearity/transitive forcing - which ... is invisible by definition. Synergistic byproduct is an example of non-linearity... In this case, only having a very modest S/W (shrapnel really) moving through the S Lakes, suddenly attaining 18 dm of height implosion S of L.I. like that is a bit too much of something from nothing. So, it's not physically impossible? No. However, long years of experience with modeling, I can remember this type of modeled scenario as having higher error. The models et al are still beyond 4 days - my own confidence will slope up significantly < 4 days.

I think it would be messy in December with that onshore fetch.....

Saw that. We are leaving for Albuquerque tomorrow and checked the weather. Will be under a Flood watch for Tuesday/Wednesday due to what is said in the alert A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture.

You’d be buried alive in winter.

That'll do-

6z euro stalls and then moves west towards ACK. It’s like 40-50kts+ on the coast for over 24 hours.

Yea, you want a drift to the west just south of LI to max that ENE funneling.

6z euro is probably worst case here for coast. Jesus.

That would be some widespread power outages on the Euro...yikes.

56 now; yesterday’s somewhat elevated humidity broke overnight. All eyes on this weekend, with our annual fall/festival planned for Saturday.

No that would weaken pressure gradient

I think we would want it to back to the west a bit south of us

Looks like remarkable ensemble agreement on a pretty impactful event to me...if this were winter, I'd be sending the social media alerts.

Don’t we want it to go up over E MA and then west across SNE for maximum wind damage?

^^ That's mostly due to warm nights, right?