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Brad Panovich just put out a great video about today's storms. The models or the model he was showing actually shows two waves of storms moving through. One wave starts around 2 to 3 today then another wave around 8 or 9 tonight. Looks like we could see some discreet cells developing as well. Fun times.

....so true!! ...and some already are doing dry runs in preparation..

His forecast was much better than other forecasts..

.02” rain sometime overnight.

Tolleris or JB ???

With a raging southern jet I think we can all agree on a stormy winter. What are the early thoughts on storm tracks; benchmark vs. inland runners?

Despite our hot start to July we have turned much cooler over the last 10 days, which has brought us all the way back to average temperatures so far for the month of July. Today looks to be the most impactful day with flash flood threats although as many of you know much of Northern Chesco has not seen as much beneficial rains as the rest of the area. Shower chances will continue but not a wash out by any means through Thursday. We finally dry out on Friday with sun returning both Friday and Saturday.

Despite our hot start to July we have turned much cooler over the last 10 days, which has brought us all the way back to average temperatures so far for the month of July. Today looks to be the most impactful day with flash flood threats although as many of you know much of Northern Chesco has not seen as much beneficial rains as the rest of the area. Shower chances will continue but not a wash out by any means through Thursday. We finally dry out on Friday with sun returning both Friday and Saturday.

Thanks Charlie! Much more to come with more area stations to support the raw data.

...at least their TV ratings will take a bump up....

And a last second major wild card for this evening has shown. Heading SSE, this could thwart the severe threat for a lot.

My early thoughts is we see a predominately bootleg +PNA/extended pac jet state in the mean that will occasionally retrograde to a -EPO/+TNH for brief periods. Still need to see where the Hadley cell will set up though.

Still some disagreement, which is no surprise with these cold season synoptics in the warm season. I do think someone’s gonna get dumped on, especially if we have these little embedded meso lows to enhance the rainfall locally.

Low of 70 with .01” of rain.

Someone is going to get smacked.

A little shower this morning. Just enough to get the sidewalk wet.

Oh, okay....agreed. I thought you were implying that it may literally be negative...no way in hell. I agree that it could be boot leg.

Oh I agree. Although if we’re going to lump dewpoint into it you could argue that the normal max “feels like” temp at MLS isn’t much different than places in SNE. But I was just making a quick quip about some random person making that move to MT to get away from everything and getting surprised at how freakin hot it can be up there. As for the 90° being hot thing…I can see it both ways. Sure, “it’s sooo hot in Dallas today at 95°” is ridiculous, but sensibly to humans, 90° is just plain hot whether it’s normal for the season or whether it’s a record for the date. We had family friends that lived in S AZ and even though they got used to, and averaged, 100+ she said no one went outside there until after 6pm. Fairbanks could have a +20F January and it’s still dangerously cold for us. I know you know all of this, but my point is just that 90s can be hot for humans and not hot for a location at the same time. But I agree, the media does twist and play with weather events that aren’t climatologically significant while trying to portray them that way. But it’s that way with everything on “social” media now. Gotta keep those likes and clicks coming.

Sprinkles inbound. I wonder if I will get to record a trace.

Let's take one model and run w/ that. To show point totals when there is a lot of model disagreement as to how much and where is foolish. One should be drawing their own map manually and show something like 1-3" general and highlight heavier areas possible and say up to 5-6". That is most reasonable at this time. Like they learned nothing from the last event?

Who gets the liter that he had in his mouth?

The 7/28 0z HREF: