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  1. Past hour
  2. snowman19
    Here comes the next big WWB and DWKW. It’s also going to spark off TC’s
  3. mahantango#1
    KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze risk Monday night/Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies Almost a slam dunk for a widespread frost for more than half the CWA tomorrow night (N and W) - and a freeze in the nrn mtns. Dewpoints will be 25-30F - just low enough to allow the temps to be able to drop, but not too dry to keep frost away. Confidence in frost is near 100 pct, but for freeze is about 49 pct. Due to increasing confidence, frost advy and freeze warnings seem likely, but the consensus among the regional offices on this (midnight) shift was to allow at least one more forecast cycle for that to happen.
  4. Today
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z EPS is quite warm around May 17-18 then above average for the 2nd half of the month
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    That CFS model runs 4x a day. To only find slightly below average temps in that is not a big accomplishment lol
  7. Benjamn3
    I honestly think JB does massive dab rips and just makes shit up.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not even in Weak Nino threshold in almost mid May.. RONI has some ground to cover if this is going to be Super 57-58, +2.0 peak was +1.1 in May 65-66, +2.0 peak was +0.6 in May 72-73, +2.3 peak was +0.9 in May 82-83, +2.5 peak was +0.8 in May 91-92, +2.3 peak was +0.5 in May *closest analog 97-98, +2.4 peak was +1.0 in May 15-16, +2.4 peak was +0.8 in May
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 1895-1950 composite has some very warm Strong Nina Winter's. Since the dataset is somewhat small, flip that signal around for Strong Nino's unless it is based way more east... Here on the EC you don't call Strong La Nina's and Strong El Nino's both warm, if they are both based in Nino 3.4. People fall in the trap of looking solely at analogs, and imo this El Nino is developing a bit different (forcing west) vs previous Super Nino's.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max).
  11. Modfan2
    .54” here in E CT, lawn is happy.
  12. John1122
    Yep. The predicted rainfall has basically crashed out now. If we get a tenth that will be lucky with how most model runs look at this point. At some point, el nino should take hold and rain should return.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Oh what could have been if winter didn't disappear and March and April in 1977. It was already a big snow year as it was, but it could have been even bigger if March and April didn't absolutely torch. More recently, there was a snow on May 9, 2020 (as well as a freeze on May 18, 2023). Those events happened after very warm and low snow winters.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year. 1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20.
  15. GaWx
    I got only ~0.08” last night and only ~.01” during the daytime today, both pretty disappointing vs expectations. MTD is ~1.3”, ~1.2” of which fell one week ago (5/2) with a nice soaking 18 hour rain.
  16. 87storms
    Tomorrow seems like it has potential for at least some storms of substance, even if not severe.
  17. kdxken
    Nothing more soothing than a sunset nad knock.
  18. CT Valley Snowman
    .52 here. About what I expected. Nasty raw day and the clearing line as the sun was setting was a nice kick in the groin.
  19. psv88
    1.10” nice drink. Everything will stay nice and lush
  20. CoastalWx
    Monday stein too. Lawn will be meh.
  21. CoastalWx
    Half inch over the last few weeks. Webbed hands all over.
  22. CoastalWx
    Drying up and Steined.
  23. Chinook
    My place had like 10 min of thunder and some rain in between lots of sunshine
  24. tunafish
    We bloom, we use snow messurement tools before harvest, and we arrange. Oh and we always dandy.
  25. WxUSAF
    They’re simply not good. They should be good, or at least better, but they’re not.
  26. canderson
    Beautiful afternoon
  27. Damage In Tolland
    .74 today and had .78 Wednesday . Drenched
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