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Probably 40” with the ratios you guys get out there.

12/5: 1.8" 12/14: 1.5" 1/17: jack 1/18: shit

I'll break my posting hiatus just to say: lol. I'm officially in storm mode

Not a major cutter. Significant changes w/ surface pressure anomalies. Much colder run, and less punch through middle TN. TRI doesn't even get above freezing during the event. 6-10 degrees colder. Major move.

Right on the MEM public site, front page not experimental. 50% six days out. That's like SPC dropping a Moderate+ Day 3 I'm not one to get the hype train rolling ahead of Day 3, but this one is pretty likely. Despite some path differences all the globals are locked in on a major winter storm in the South.

i mean, you have overrunning and then a rotting, highly anomalous block with +PNA due to tropical forcing

i'd go with AI models

Poor folks out at DCL, they miss out on the action with only 2ft of snow.

huge

Probably 2/5-6/2010.

Euro is basically the same vs 6z so far

It’s like 2009-10 down south all over again plus 2014-15 up here all at once.

What??? No one is calling for that nor is any app

Yep. Not a full "cave" but it jumped south enough to be inline with UK and CMC. The cone of uncertainty continues to shrink

Given the pattern and depth of the cold I'd favor suppression for next weekend over a big hit here but we'll see. Hope I'm wrong.

Even just modest snowstorms in La Ninas are rare and to be appreciated any time they happen. This is missing Feb 12th from last year, but here's a list of every 5"+ La Nina snowstorm at DCA in the 21st century. The 2010s had just one instance.

Canadian ens probability of 6”

Lmao, VA is ground zero

I was over at Ray's archives and there were 5 snowstorms listed in Feb. 2010 - which one you talking about ?

yea

MJO 6 to 8 ftw?

Seems to be running now

AIFS might be the most ridiculous shit i have ever seen

Frigid, windy day with some blowing snow in my neighborhood. The lake effect pixies plus blowing snow are making for tough conditions when you get into the northern part of St Joseph County. There’s a pile up on the Toll Road right now. I can’t even imagine how bad it must be along the west coast of Michigan today.