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  2. 98/68 dp at 12:13pm no clouds I'll let y'all do the math at this point.
  3. Yes CIG1 for wind introduced along i95 corridor from DC metro into PHL
  4. Hatched now too on the wind. 16m population under cig 1 on 4th of July. Explosive.
  5. I thought this whole thread was a fallacy! Lol
  6. Models seem to offer hope for major mid and late July cooldown
  7. its not too bad if you are sitting drinking water but once you start walking around it feels like a sauna - no messages yet from SPC about any possible watches as of noon - also yesterday the temp here dropped from 102 to 72 after the storm - expect something similar today later
  8. The lower dew points give me pause for sure, but I feel better seeing that even the HRRR, which overmixes the crap out of our area this afternoon, initiates a modest coverage of storms locally.
  9. it's winter in the summer. Someone seems bound though to get some good rains but I'm a little skeptical of widespread amounts that high like the NAM has.
  10. If this was winter these wet n wild Mets would be so conservative when they should be gung ho. In summer it’s rains gone wild when so many things could go wrong . Interfering to note
  11. With convection involved in the mid Atlantic. Proceed with much caution on big amounts
  12. Several mesonet sites in the eastern shore and southern MD are running ahead of yesterday.
  13. That is going to be they key I think to where the heaviest totals occur. Have to see where that sets up but sort of seems like that may be just north of SNE. We get into the heavy rains as it moves through but this might be maximized just north. I foresee one big band of rain lifting north then more showery
  14. Yeah 36 hours of that 850 fgen.... with 2" pwats on the south coast.
  15. Not as hot here yesterday at the same time. Clouds
  16. Also should start to see some cumulus start to form in the next couple hours. Already popcorn storms over the higher elevations
  17. Number of ensemble members pretty close to doubled overnight for the BDL area. I would be more willing to toss if there wasn't a band of warm advection f-gen on all models.
  18. Cap won yesterday. Less of an issue today despite the lower dews, but given the uncertainty with the placement and coverage of storms, I'm a little surprised to see the 45% from SPC today (though they kept me in a Slight at the 00z update last evening despite it being clear nothing was gonna happen after 00z). I do think whatever storms do form will likely overperform because we haven't had any turnover in the atmosphere since the start of the heatwave. Congrats to whoever gets the storms today (assuming it doesn't cancel your plans). I think we get scattered storm coverage with stuff that comes in off the mountains, but where those end up exactly is my biggest uncertainty.
  19. Great Falls 4th of July parade was hot but fun as always. Glad they didn’t cancel for the heat!
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