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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
If you told me this upcoming el nino is going to be a modoki, I'll gladly take my chances with it. -
Nothing like ridiculous NAM
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What rain? Few showers Fri nite
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Gonna be tough for Kevin to be above 50 Saturday aftn. Maybe late day if rain stops.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
WmsptWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yes, I'm sure you know more than subject matter experts... -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Ruin replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Again this map is no way near accurate im sorry its changed a bit but no way we should still be in the orange color -
I've got nearly 3 acres. I mow a 10th of it. The rest is a small garden, well, I just plant stuff around randomly around the house, no tilling, no rhyme or reason where, it's my "shrubbery", native wild plants wildflowers grasses and brush, trees and mud lol
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Euro trying for flakes Saturday morning
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More showery than I expected. Still a nice day for working outside.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
roardog replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
These guys are talking about atmospheric responses like WWB,MJO,SOI, etc. I don’t think anyone here disagrees with any of this. Posters like Bluewave and Chuck are talking about the pattern over the North Pacific and or North America not being completely Nino like. I’m still not even sure why we should even be expecting a strong Nino response right now since the RONI is at like +.5 -
Spring 2026 Med/Long Range Discussion
CheeselandSkies replied to Brian D's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It really seems like a mixed bag with ENSO. Feels like in my adult life we've had wet Ninos, dry Ninos, wet Ninas, dry Ninas, warm Ninos, cold Ninos, warm Ninas (most dramatically 2012), and cold Ninas. The strength and timing/speed of transition (TNI) makes the biggest difference. -
Total cancel on gfs. Hope it’s wrong.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
brooklynwx99 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
there was also a major block that was poorly forecasted in February... one of the worst pattern busts I've ever seen. if that occurred, things would have turned out a whole lot differently that month -
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Wheel of 'rhea.... probably won't be quite that awful
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
should he hold your hand and tell you it's going to be a modoki? -
Awesome pattern on the GFS
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That cansips was from Sept though...pretty far out. -
2015-2016 had some big snowstorms here. Once upon a time there was a map posted here that showed that once you cross into super Nino threshold that we actually start to get above normal winter precip. The worst part of a Nino around here is the tendency for dryness. Even the weaker ones where we get below normal temperatures have a tendency to be dry. If super Nino can get us above normal precip, I would take that any day over a garbage non Nino winter like 01-02 or 11-12.
- Today
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Jersey south was boiling, regardless
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yeah, not too into getting into a debate with lawn obsessed americans but the notion that women are the ones into lawn care was p funny real heads know baddies are all about the native plants
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Time to drop by and share a few of these
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I wonder if Eastern NE was cooler, and if higher nighttime lows skewed the mean out there. That said, I do know there were several hot days mixed in this month, especially further west.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You’re a f*cking asshole. Par for the course from you. Troll -
Only if this pattern holds. I'm skeptical. WX/PT
