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Yea, MC is going down...pretty clear.

I guess all the energy absent from the Atlantic has to go somewhere https://x.com/JaydonShawwx/status/2103657217673384075

I work at the NYC DEP WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT in Manhattan and can tell you we are pumping max design flow of 350 Million Gallons right now. Half inch my ass. .

Fallacious argument. The trouble w/ the "ppl are dying!" argument is that it essentially dictates that anything less than death is trivial and not worth discussing. That is among the most vapid and intellectually lazy rebuttals around. Can you objectively say these fatalities would not have occurred anyway if there were more reaonsble and less-hyped warnings? Not every fatality is due to not enough warnings or alerts. Many ppl will ignore warnings and go out/take risks despite warnings b/c they have become apathetic to the relentless hype. Some ppl just plain resist authority/being told what to do. And some do take warnings seriously, stay home, and a tree crashes into their home, causing a fatality. All the warnings in the world is not going to prevent something like that from happening. So I would avoid the high-horse, virtue signaling here and understand that more is not always better and things are not a simple 1-1 correlation when it comes to complex societal issues.

What

Light rain. Winds arent bad.

1.15"

Although winds cancelled for Kev. Another let down for him. Even I thought CT would do better overnight. Probably too inverted.

I suspect PSU/Steelers folk among us are going to find out over the next few months that neither James Franklin nor Mike Tomlin was the problem.

Where are you getting that number from?

Vortex95 needs context before quoting people

That was a joke lol. Trolling

nyc will bust on the rain totals not even a half inch so far..

Winds gusting 45-50 mph or so right now, up to 1.66" of rain.

Most historical Super east-based Nino's had Winter +NAO. A lot of the seasonal models have more -NAO this Winter.. I said it before, give me -NAO with Super Nino STJ anytime, regardless of the Pacific. It does makes sense that an El Nino would have more -NAO than 48-20 composite because it goes with a tendency to warm 10mb. But we have +QBO this Winter which is a counter to that. And we haven't had a true -NAO Winter in 14 years. But logistically speaking late Summer has been cool locally.. just like the last 2 years. It will snow this year, low odds of a Dec-Mar wall-to-wall torch like 97-98 imo

@jconsor good questions! It got close to subtropical status ydy. Saying it had no characteristics of that is incorrect. Not enough to call it a named ST storm, but not a whiff either. And despite being shallow warm core, it is *strong* warm core w/ thickness that high. Saw 23 C and 850, 14 C at 700 , and -3 C at 500 on the ECMWF analysis earlier on in the storm. That is a common temp profile in a strong TS in the tropics or a hybrid system farther N, Those 925-500 temps I just listed is what Sandy had per recon when it underwent a solid warm seclusion and became more tropical offshore the day of landfall (as a Cat 2), like the Perfect Storm did late in its existence. A warm seclusion is the first step to ST or T transition, so why that it is said a "mere warm seclusion" is odd. Yes, many, many occluded cyclones get a warm seclusion, but not all are the same or stop there. And in this case, SSTs plenty warm for a ST or even T transition. 26 C as a cut off is overrated. You can get legit ST systems w/ SSTs as low as 15 C. Look at the Jan 2023 event off the Mid-Atlantic -- it was just a little bit farther offshore than this event, but that made all the difference I think. I posted on that earlier on this thread along w/ a sat loop that shows a remarkable hurricane for time of year and location! NHC ignored it operationally and called it s 60 kt STS later, but I do not agree. 65 kt HU easy. Subtropical storms do not have a persistent defined eye w/ a solid ringeven of mdtly-deep convection. Find me a baroclinic strong coastal storm in which the sfc low started S of the 576 thk line and wrapped, creating a closed pool of 582 thk over the center. That's practically unheard of, at least in this part of the world. So an outlier case, and that's why you can't treat it as "only" this or that typical. The thing that prevented this storm from becoming total ST is that is was just a bit too close to land. You want to see such a system 150 mi or more away from sig land b/c otherwise cooler/drier continental air keeps funneling in. But given this storm was fcst such an outlier event climo-wise, I was cautious as to something unexpected happening here.

People died from falling trees in NYC today.

ISP gusting to 51mph. Pretty much what I expected tonight. 1.75" of rain so far. Highest gust remaims 55 mph.

A neighbor did have a large branch broken on his fence.

pretty much the same here.

Awareness is a two way street. You don't need to be relentlessly reminded on how "dangerous" it out out there, esp. when it is not that "dangerous" overall. Constant negative like that wears on society, promotes anxiety, and impacts zeitgeist, among other things. You start viewing the world as worse that is actually is, and many ppl think the wx is worse and unlike anything society has ever experienced before b/c of wx hype and the ordinary is constantly turned into the extraordinary That is not good. Decisions and policy are made from such false perceptions, never mind needless cancellations, as a couple of examples.