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As my analysis shows above, the Oct Euro hasn’t even been close with its winter prog the last 4 years: 24 25: too warm 22 23: too cold

Overnight ghost hunt in Warwick NY tonight. Just so dang lucky with the temps

Pretty underwhelming cold front. Dead calm outside, pushing 60 at 10 am. Might hit 70° at this pace.

Front came thru a bit after 6 am. Temp has been dropping ever since. Currently at 10:15 am it is 58 and breezy with light rain

New Sweden reported 0.9" at cocorahs. Probably more at FVE.

Hot damn. We are cursed to love frozen water. Nice stuff!

Im aware of all of that. Models always smooth things out. There will always be warmer areas....and colder areas. The Euro seasonal was too warm multiple times for the east the past handful of winters. Do i doubt that someone somewhere will have a +10 month? Not at all. To say that its going to be way warmer everywhere is the part I have issue with. Actually, im really more interested in snow. We all have tirelessly agreed it will be a mild winter, despite some troll comments implying the mysterious never-to-be-found posters calling for a cold winter....but these wild posts (not by you) that no one gets snow. Lol. I live in a state where the license plate says "water winter wonderland" and somehow el nino will take away all our snow

39.1F Light rain and snow shower. It seems that the snow falling and changes to rain shafts right at my elevation of 1100 feet. Some mangled big flakes. It only lasted 5 minutes and now the sun is coming out.

1/2 of rain last night. Currently 51 degrees and overcast.

Yeah, ADK, Bretton Woods… just one of those things. Toll Road open to the summit, lol. I said no way that thing would open today, figuring an inch or so on road and we close it immediately once any frozen road surfaces. 20F up there and just rime ice. 32F base area.

We’re also still pretty cold. Temp has dropped from about 33 when I woke up to 31.4 now on a light NW wind.

Agree with Bluewave. Unlike 2015. the MC forcing has been totally non-existent since spring. Very 1997 like in that respect. And as far as ignoring factors more important than ENSO, there are no factors more important than the strongest super El Nino in history. It is massive and it will be the main driver this winter, by far and away, elephant in the room, totally and completely overwhelming. An overwhelming signal this absurdly strong, with record/extreme latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere from the tropical PAC is going to trump all else (weather moves west to east), it totally dominates the forcing and the global heat budget. The extratropical -PDO (with the relative warmth off Japan doesn't even hold a candle to it), the AMO, the Atlantic, the Arctic, NAO/AO…..it is going to steam roll them

That’s weird. Mansfield is the snow magnet. Not often east and west of them snows and they don’t.

Sweatpants and sweatshirt. Cold.

Nice! We only had snow grains here and a bunch of rime ice up high. Mansfield snuck through with no snow.

We shorts today . Not bad out with a hoodie

That cutoff next week could create a stretch of real nice stein weather for days. Let’s dry up Brian‘s well.

Nah good for you, enjoy it. May as well snow here as my extremities got numb on the field.

Warm and rainy? @ineedsnow waking up in a panic right now

Records: Highs: EWR: 90 (1938) NYC: 90 (1938) LGA: 83 (2016) JFK: 82 (1963) Lows: EWR: 29 (1937) *earliest reading below 30 NYC: 33 (1886) LGA: 38 (1970) JFK: 38 (1970) Historical: 1781 - General Cornwallis attempted to escape encirclement by crossing York River, "but a violent storm arose" dispersing his boats causing him to ask for an armistice. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1906: A Hurricane moved out of the Caribbean and across the lower Florida Keys to Miami leaving 164 people dead. The storm weakened in the Atlantic and turned back to Florida, crossing the coast near Daytona Beach as tropical storm. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1910 - A hurricane made a loop off the southwest coast of Florida. Winds above 100 mph were reported at Fort Myers FL, and the barometric pressure at Sand Key reached 28.40 inches. (David Ludlum) 1910: A category 4 hurricane moved north-northeast, passing just east of the Dry Tortugas. The maximum storm surge observed in Key West was 8 feet, with 15-foot waves at what is now Fort Zachary Taylor State Park. 1935: First of 176 days with a minimum temperature at or below 32 degrees at Langdon ND. This stands as the record for the United States. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1950 - Small but powerful Hurricane King struck Miami, FL. The hurricane packs winded to 122 mph, with gusts to 150 mph. Hurricane King then moved up the Florida peninsula to Georgia. Four persons were killed and damage was 28 million dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1971 - Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray CO. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine persons were injured in the tornado, all at a trailer court at the edge of town. (The Weather Channel) 1971: Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray, Colorado. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine people were injured in the storm, all at a trailer court at the edge of town. 1971:Heavy rains in NW Minnesota. 4.02" at Georgetown (20 miles N of Moorhead.) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1977: Early snow in the Washington Baltimore, MD area and 18 inches in PA. (Ref. Oct. Snowfall History by Herb Close) 1979: Many birds were victims of a severe thunderstorm that crossed the Wichita Mountains National Wildlife Refuge in southwestern Oklahoma during the early morning hours. Hail up to one inch in diameter killed more than 3,500 birds and injured 1,500 to 2,000 others. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1981: Prolonged very heavy rain, from October 10th through October 17th, led to serious flooding across parts of south-central Oklahoma. In northwest Marshall County, 26.2 inches of rain fell during those eight days, with 16 inches of that total falling in just 16 hours. Two men drowned, and many people were injured and evacuated, due to the flooding. Estimates of the flood-related losses amounted to between $23 million and $60 million dollars. Then-President Ronald Reagan declared six Oklahoma counties as disaster areas. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1984 - A snowstorm struck northern Utah producing a record 18 inches in 24 hours at Salt Lake City, and 40 inches at the nearby Alta Ski Resort. The town of Magna, located ten miles west of Salt Lake City, did not receive any snow at all. The storm was responsible for a fifty vehicle pile-up along Interstate 15 near Farmington UT. (Storm Data) 1987 - It was a great day for an Oktoberfest, or to enjoy the colors of autumn, as much of the nation enjoyed sunny and mild weather. Columbia SC dipped to 34 degrees, marking their third morning in a row of record cold. Bakersfield CA reached 80 degrees for the 143rd day in a row to break a record established in 1940. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes in Indiana, including one which injured four persons. Strong thunderstorm winds at Connerville IND caused three million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in Illinois produced hail two inches in diameter Colfax. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms representing the remnants of Hurricane Jerry deluged southeast Kentucky with four to six inches of rain in 18 to 24 hours, resulting in widespread flash flooding. Flooding resulted in more than five million dollars damage. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the southeastern U.S. Lakeland FL and Orlando FL reported record highs of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: Sleet fell in the Blue Ridge Mountains as a major coastal storm causing extensive coastal flooding from North Carolina to Massachusetts. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1992: Heavy rain and storm caused erosion from Hatteras to Cape Cod 2-4 inches of rain and 64 mph wind in New Jersey. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1998: During the weekend of October 17-18, 1998, torrential rains fell over southern and southeast Texas. Up to 22 inches of rain fell, which first resulted in deadly flash flooding from San Antonio to Austin followed by record-breaking river floods along several South Texas rivers the following week. Based on provisional data from the USGS, which is subject to revision, the flood peak for this event was the highest known peak stage at 15 locations. Tragically, a total of 31 people died during the event (26 drownings, two tornado deaths, two heart attacks, and one electrocution/drowning). At least 17 of the drowning victims were in vehicles that were either driven into water or were swept away by rapidly rising water. Preliminary property damage estimates approached three-quarters of a billion dollars.

51 / 35 clouds with front offshore. Looks cloudy all day from the prior sunny forecasts. Chilliest air of the season next 48 hours then the onshore barrage with ridge building to our west and north and flow coming around with the cut off off low off the coast. Looks like 4-6 days of onshore flow generally at or above normal with clouds and perhaps showers reaching eastern sections from the storm. Beyond there looking overall near / above normal 10/27 - beyond.

Probably won’t see that until Feb

Here's the most recent grab...

something in the sleet/ snow frozen family here, 39