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Thanks Chinook for the link to the paper. As I recall it took some time to break out of that pattern that became entrenched in 1976-77.

February will be colder than January.

Pretty nice setup. Ridge gets a little sliced off in BC but this is just round one…ridge then rebuilds a little further west and we’d have several more shots in the following 5-10 days with that longwave look. Hopefully we can cash in….but for D10 and beyond, this is all we can ask for at the moment.

No but I haven’t moved in 30 minutes so I was bored… it’s now snowing light/moderate tho .

It’s all working out to plan

nice snow shower here

Floyd's "Shine on you crazy diamond" and "Take five" by the Dave Brubeck Quartet were my two favorites...

16th onwards. 4 day snow mean below

No ensemble snowfall improvement on the Eps unfortunately.

^what time period has the improvement? Around the 15th? Later?

Now that our ensembles are in, I like the look we seem to be developing. I still hope we start seeing fantasy storms soon but we’ll have quite the cold pool setting up to our north with blocking in place to deliver CAD. Now can we throw moisture into it?

Major improvement on the snow mean on the GEFS, FWIW.

The way people drive in this area, almost guaranteed 100%!

What does it show at d10?

Well, when I saw the top 5H anomaly map at 252hrs, I wasn't expecting it to look like the bottom map at 264hrs. But I won't fight you on the "beggars can't be choosers" point of view.

With the temps we've had its ShrunkenWeenies

I didn’t rule it out. But we needed a larger scale change to get the boundary south of you and we got it at 12z.

onlyweenies?

Wake and bake?

Just your run-of-the-mill 0 degrees with wind chills of -31 and -12 dp

It seems for now we have two discrete threat windows on the dates you said. I know some are really down on January because the ens snow means are so low, but I'm not. We have chances. Not saying they'll "definitely" pan out though.

The nice little line of snow showers that just went through makes it 80% of the days so far this year that it snowed Too bad it looks like that might end after tomorrow.

Graupel in lower Manhattan.

snowing again in the city

Enjoying the day and vegging out to old Weather Channel clips and zoning off to the old local on the 8s music. That management group doesn't know if they just brought that segment back with that smooth jazz style.misic what a goldmine they would have. Anyway, this 1994 clip popped up. What a brutal and cold winter that was: