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Umm... the wait is always the same between model release times. It's not longer simply because we have a storm on the horizon.

At my age, I cant remember what i had for dinner last night but i can tell you everything you want to know back in the 60's and 70's..............

I lost interest in those analog maps after finding they only use PNA

Oh come on, the both of you aren’t fooling anyone.

How do I get 4” of snow off of less than .04” of qpf here in Augusta County? 100:1 ratios? Lol

There is a shit ton of snow around downtown Dover right now.

Anyone needs a break in between the models these guys are pretty good.

Guess I didn't realize it was still that cold down that way. Not paying attention with other stuff I've been doing. Stay warm

Yes... remember that one vividly. They called for < 2 inches and we got a foot.

Is that burnt popcorn for Knoxville I smell? My warm nose can smell it in the air

@stormtracker can we switch pins for Jan to this and close the other?

This place is candyland compared to Eastern. Trust me when I say being a newbie and acting like a know it all was like shooting baskets on a hoop with a yellow jacket nest.

Gotta hope the NW tick keeps up!!! Lots of good trends and signs on the 18z suite!!

They have some special pull up there. Biggest vacuum on the planet.

it's not a storm, therefore Will would not be a go to, I'm terrible with names too but can remember obscure actors or things from decades ago, but when it comes to storms I've never seen anyone as good as Will being able to quickly pull an event I totally forgot about, out of the either with ease...wish I could do that!

So my wife and I had this conversation this weekend. From a Risk Management point of view, Mets, OEM, Risk Management, etc made the right call. Granted, there is a lesson to be learned regarding communicating potential pit falls. That withstanding, the right call was made from a professional point of view, even though we were wrong with regard to impacts. Yet, the public is very frustrated (which to an extent is understandable). I even had some texts from associates stating that this is why preperation and risk management is useless in this country: persons who are in this profession (OEM, Meteorologists, etc) tend to be alarmists and make other persons spend money they otherwise would not have to which if they simply never prepared, they would have the money to respond when a disaster finally does take place. Then there are the comments where persons state mets simply alarm persons for the money to be injected in the economy. Now what is likely to happen is that this storm will hit, meteorologists and others will be "gun shy" and then the public becomes even more frustrated. It's a viscious cycle, especially for broadcast mets and the NWS.

Awesome. So much for the Meh-teorologists

Yeah the drumbeat goes on. Frigid week ahead.

I grew up in Tampa and they’re hosting the Stadium Series game on Sunday. It may not get out of the mid 40’s. Then of course you see crazy stuff like this… https://x.com/flstormchasers_/status/2015854097153302774?s=46 .

I really don't mind where we're sitting right now. Trends are great and we still have time. I have a good feeling about this one for some reason. Tomorrow might be a really fun day of model watching! Here's to keeping the trend going for the 12z suite.

In my defense, my guess was correct. It was hidden down in the memory hole but not quite deep enough.

Right? It's actually a piece of energy leftover from last weekend's storm that swings around and becomes the northern stream energy

Needs to be pinned.

Gotta love the southern hemisphere !!

I'm not super familiar with the land surface part of modeling but I really wonder if the reason models have busted on min temps so far is that they had the surface progged as snowpack when it's really a sheet of ice at this point. It's easy to get very low skin temps with snow b/c of insulation, but harder with ice because of heat conduction from below