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I’m going to have nightmares about -PNA.

I think a uniform +PNA works just as good. Maybe in El Nino +PNA won't be as cold, but lately we've had some good opposite examples of -pna. It's just more uniform these days, on both sides, than a long time ago for whatever reason. I don't think it's a global warming issue besides some minor things

That will change lol

It's already flipping the script at Hr36

Lol that’s definitely one of my points. Also trying to get him to answer if he thinks the 2017 on period (which has been our worst stretch ever and by a large margin) is the new normal because he seems to be using this current total fail period as his baseline for what is normal. And if so our disagreement makes sense because all my examples of this pattern working are from before 2017

I hope you're right and these last 2 winters weren't just an anomaly. Though I think my favorite winter here was 2023-2024 - a big storm and snow on the ground for a week, but mild otherwise. Cold and dry is my least favorite kind of winter - though I know some others will disagree, since the cold at least makes it feel more like winter even without snow

And we remain the only team to do that--thanks to the Patriots at least getting on the board tonight

We’re still talking past each other Chuck. I’m saying we used to be able to snow without PNA help. We used to get some snowstorms with a hostile pacific. YES you’re right since 2016 that hadn’t been true. Lately when the pac is bad we got to absolute shit and torch so bad there is no hope. But I am saying historically that wasn’t true. Especially if you go back prior to like 2000! Bet there were some examples even up to 2015. But since…the last decade the pac has been impossible to overcome. When the pac is bad it torches us. I’m asking you if you think that’s just the new normal and getting snow despite a pad pac pattern is a thing of the past.

They gave up zero points in the SB. The one TD was a kickoff return.

I think what PSU is trying to say is that the fast pattern flip in the pac takes a few days to affect the east. I know you said the time lag is 0 days, but I don’t agree. There is a limited window of time where we can still get a snowstorm before the warmup happens.

They were top 2 with the 86 Bears. This Seattle D is in the top 5.

We pop a +400 ridge in the pad multiple times every damn winter now. You can’t hardly find any examples of that even in the absolute worst PDO winters in the past prior to 2000 so of course there are no examples.

Positive PNA is working, look at how cold January was. And Jan 2025 in +PNA there was 10" of snow in Florida.. our deep freeze we just had and are still experiencing is heavily +pna driven! Now in the next few days the Pacific does a fast pattern flip.

There are some examples of +200-250 N pad ridges and snow…but a +250 ridge in 1960 is probably a +400 now! Heights are higher! So you won’t see that because a +400 ridge was unheard of in the past and would have been so anomalous for that period it would have dominated the pattern.

We know the true cause is...Leporiphobia.

Omg we are talking past each other. Yes since 2017 -pna hasn’t worked. I’ve said that. But that’s one of the reasons since 2017 has been the worst 9 year snow drought in our history. You’re using the absolute worst 9 years EVER as your baseline! If that’s what you’re saying is normal we’re Fooked and I might as well find a new hobby. I’m saying I am assuming things go back to normal (or at least better than the last 9 years have been) at some point. Baltimore is only averaging 12” if snow since 2016! There are 2 reasons for that. 1) we’ve been in a hostile PDO pac regime. Past periods like this were low snow periods. But this one has been worse. Much worse! Why? Because we aren’t even getting the fluke occasions snows we used to get in a crap pacific pattern. You think that continues? You think 12” is what is normal in Baltimore now?

I've never seen a +450dm N. Pacific High and negative heights in Alaska and snow!

Most of our snowstorms with a hostile PNA were warm storms that were barely cold enough to snow with warm temps on either side of the storm. Lots of examples where it was 48 the day before and 47 the day after and like 55-60 within a few days either side. At least the Jan Feb ones. March we have more examples of colder regimes with a hostile PNA due to shorter wavelengths. But we have snowed in “warm” regimes before if we get a perfect storm track. Feb 1987 being the best example!

PNA has highest correlation with our temps in January (0.40 correlation) and February (0.35 correlation). It has a 0.15 correlation in December and March.

My kids don’t watch it! Have you watched some of the past shows? Or some of the stuff on MTV? I probably don’t want them seeing some of that no…but I don’t remember the outrage at this stuff that’s been going on for YEARS. It’s been like 20 years since the wardrobe malfunction and forget the mistake how bout the fact he was mock groping her which caused the malfunction. This is a lost cause and been this way a long time so why the sudden outrage now? I suspect I know why.

Well yeah, there are 6 main patterns: 1. WPO 2. EPO 3. Gulf of Alaska 4. PNA 5. NW-based NAO (Could call it AO) 6. south-based NAO Most impactful to our temps is EPO.

A 17 year low…nice.

I don't know why, but the PNA is more uniform now than it was in the 1960s and 1970s. 3-wave patterns that almost always carry through. I get this from tracking just about every Winter since 2017. I've said it before, storms that models have snow around Day 7-8 with a strong -PNA or +EPO end up rain >90% of the time. Maybe the jet stream is north, maybe it's something with the AMO, but I don't see this storm threat as a close call at all. And I know as we get closer it will trend toward more of a snow miss and rain or nothing. Now if we end up 30 degrees and sunny on that day, I will say you were right - the SE ridge was not underestimated, but that's a strong anomaly in the Pacific! It's not just PNA, it's like 3 standard deviations. In March we get more neutral heights with -PNA but in Feb the SE ridge correlation is still pretty strong: [default of map below is positive, so negative pna is opposite]

Boston SSTs now coldest since 2009. https://seatemperature.info/february/boston-water-temperature.html

NAO is trending negative again toward the end of Feb. Pac ridge is becoming a WPO poleward ridge linking to the AO. Yea the pna sucks but in late Feb and March we should be able to overcome that. At least we have in the past. PNA is the most important index the first 1/3 of winter, equal with AO the middle 3rd, and dropped in importance once past Feb 15 in my snowstorm analysis.