All Activity

Euro needs to join the party.

Yes!! Some really strong members.

Lagging vorticity I was referring to was here... this could be feedback from the line of convection sweeping off southeast coast, I'm not sure as 6z GFS hinted at this too, but it disrupts much better cyclogenesis. Otherwise, we'd have a huge hit.

Yessir!!!!

Longitudinal trends on this will be driven by trough dynamics rather than downstream features

Well that a lil better !! I'll have to get the real potent coffee in the morning !!

Go to bed happy now.

does it show a stronger storm?

Precursor advy event for the interior still there as well

Hey at least it runs a half hour earlier now, lol

Wow that is an improvement over 18z GEFS!!

Probably some shuffling back and forth with so much time left. The last few years of coastal failures have left me a bit skeptical. If it looks similar in 24 hours then maybe we're out of the woods with the 'what can go wrong will go wrong' feeling.

no high to our north or east, this could trend another 50-100 miles west

Is that gulf moisture trying to connect to pacific ?

Oh crap. After seeing the GFS.. now I gotta wait up for the euro lol.. looks like I'll be groggy at work tomorrow!!! Ahh the pains of being a weather nut!!!

Well, well, well. Would you look at that, the wind is back, shocking! Currently 35.8/27.9 with WNW 11 gusting 24 mph. Had a shower a while ago, but maybe 0.01 to 0.02 fell.

Yup! The GEFS members are clustered well southwest of both 18z and 12z and precipitation is also much further west. Interestingly the mean trof position isn't improved.

Big jump!

Interestingly enough, there are many of these lake effect streamers even over here that are stacking up. About 1.5” here and still coming down pretty good with the radar only showing this.

0z GEFS wow

About a 3 inch mean here on the GEFS. Not too shabby

Some of those panels have rain pretty far inland

Looks like it gets here.

60F ...but we should see some flakes flying this weekend regardless.