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18z Euro Ensemble…so close yet so far away .

Arctic air now covers the region. Highs will be mainly in the lower 20s through Saturday. One or more days could see highs in the teens. The last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on one or more days during this period. The last winter with more than one such day was Winter 2022-23 when there were three such days. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. Tempweratures shouold begin to moderate on Sunday into early next week. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least the start of next week. Additional snow is possible on Sunday if a developing storm passes close enough to the coast. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England would have the greatest chance of seeing an appreciable or greater snowfall. There remains significant uncertainty about the location of the storm's development and its track. A large storm would be historic. For reference, New York City has seen just one 10" or above snowstorm one week or less following a 10" or above snowstorm: February 3-4, 1926 (10.4") and February 9-10, 1926 (12.4"). The shortest interval between 10" or above daily snowfalls is 14 days: March 2, 1896 (10.0") and March 16, 1896 (12.0"). Records go back to 1869. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +6.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.873 today. That is the lowest figure since February 15, 2025 when the AO was -5.278. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It was poorly communicated hyperbole, but you get my point, it probably isn't going to happen unless we get 4 consecutive substantial positive changes, whether that is in regards to where the ULL digs, how quickly it tilts negative, etc.

It was a wonky plume. If you look at it, it was just a steady snow for days and still snowing at the end of it. Probably throwing off the mean some though

I love the NWS (I am trying to intern with them after all!) but I'm starting to become a bit skeptical of their snowfall totals. They predicted over 8 inches of snow/sleet and I ended up with 5. Before that in NYC they predicted double of what I got. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing to hedge your forecast to motivate public officials towards the snowier outcomes but I do think they should be read with that goal in mind.

WB 18Z EPS; 20-30% make it to DC

Hopefully we dont have to worry about it next winter.

Nice. Warning level snows Jersey shore. I'll take it.

Be careful…18z can fool us. And no, I’m not buying in…done that too many times. If others come west/improve at 0z, and Euro holds/improves, then it’s probably real. But that’s a Big If there. But, with that said…this is what we’ve been waiting to see. But it could also just be a burp of the 18z ilk. 0z will be telling.

Reminds me of December 1988. MacArthur airport reported a blizzard while NYC barely got flurries.

Just get 0z to have some tics back west on guidance, Getting to the point where regression east is at least a nail in the coffin for many inland away from the coast.

Eh. That’s extreme. If 0z showed a blizzard I think we would all stand at attention.

They need something after the Belichick snub lol

I assume this doesn't take into account the latest 18Z euro run?

First thing that came to mind!

Febrrrrrruary DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.5

Most likely

It's times like these I wish I didn't have children under the age of 12 and I could just YOLO out there for a snow day and crush dank cruisers.

I'm in the light blue and I'm ready to abscond with this. Run away. Elope. Tell the families later.

They totally deserve it

Digital blue over my yard! We take lol

wxbell 18Z EPS

Looking like a visit to Rehoboth might be the way to go to see some snow in an hours drive. Plus DFH.