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If the Euro is right with the evolution of the LLJ we should see a notable uptick in winds across LI/CT between now and 8p. Worth watching that.

Stop it.

I took a ride around Ocean drive and it was definitely a stormy look, but nothing special. About to get into the meat of this thing again.

366 isn't a small handful.

You never disappoint!

A step or two below 1938

It's pretty cool. Basically how many of the ensemble members are in the 90th percentile of MClimate... and then how far are those beyond the 99th percentile. The shaded area is the confidence in an extreme event and then the black lines are basically how extreme the extreme is.

Yeah. Never believed hooking into Cape May.

Chewed up pretty good!

Heavy rains will pivot in and out as the storm meanders around. It’s not like a winter storm where there’s a huge steady overrunning precip shield. Still another 24 hours to go with this.

Far Rockaway beach erosion photos submitted to NYCEM a few hours ago

Based on latest radar mosaic you can see where best rains are setting up. Best lift / forcing is over southeast New England. As the low starts to bend back west the heavier rains should start to cover L.I. and at least southern CT. Surface low has made it pretty far north. It is already abeam of Atlantic City and still gaining latitude. Have to think this is going to take the center more towards the NY Bight rather than the CNJ coast. If true that would mean the next round of high tides tonight and early tomorrow would be worse on L.I. rather than NJ. Winds are going to pickup overnight area wide through so I'd plan for increasing power outages especially nearer the coast. Heaviest rains going forward look to be from the city eastward and north into southern and southeast New England. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_PA2/loop60v.html

It’s just really wild to see a nearly +29°C warm pool in Nino 3 region this time of year. This is supposed to be the coolest part of the year for that SST region. SSTs this high have only been reached a few times but during the late winter into spring when the annual SSTs peak there.

Should you come across any storm-related damage, please report it to us! https://www.weather.gov/okx/submitstormreport Downed trees, power lines, etc. Time, location, and what occurred. Stay safe!

No idea what that actually means but it looks cool . I believe those just mean windy for late September?

Zay Flowers is questionable

As expected, absolute yawner here.

After seeing all the pics of the coastal cities I’m really wishing I had gone to my place on the eastern shore. It’s bay side but north winds would push a lot of water around

To be serious though the storm has gone exactly as I expected so far. Great forecast by all besides the usual outlets that hype too much.

Yeah in November the trees would barely be swaying.

once the storm makes the left turn that will change. It's filling in here now

From everything that I am hearing about the super El Nino, it's not likely at all that we're going to have a very cold winter. The likelihood is milder than normal, but that doesn't mean we'll just have rain, even if we're a few degrees warmer than the average temps. We can still have big snow storms if everything is timed well. So hard to know. I think that's what keeps. All of us coming back is the unknown and the hope of what we'll see. At least we're heading in the right direction as far as seasons go for all of us snow lovers

Rough game....