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Best chance for a real torch is if that cutter early next week (around 3/9-3/10) can cleanly warm sector us. Models have been off and on with that. If it’s a clean warm sector, we def would get 70F. I remember we got one in 1990 where we spiked over 80F and then I think we got a warning snow event a week later or less. Of course, we pulled something similar in 2007. It was very warm a couple days before the St Pattys day eve event. Not sure we hit 70 but it was close.

Well, like I said, lots of Winter to go…lol! People should wait until April 10th to give a final Winter grade in my opinion. I have enjoyed the couple of warm days that we’ve had in the last week or so & I’ll enjoy the warm up later this week, all while tracking the chance of every last flake until the true end of possibilities next month.

Just looked at the 18z euro and gfs AI suite, both are a bit north and more juicy than 12z and that seems to be the trend the last several cycles. I could see this providing a last minute surprise especially in the higher elevations. The rain a few days ago ended up a lot more substantial than models had it and the qpf axis ended up 50-75 miles north of the modeling from the night before.

Haha that’s 12 days away - I’m sure it won’t change. Let’s enjoy all the warmth until then.

Highs EWR: 44 NYC: 43

Warmer temps ahead/before and during / after, no protection of a layer of sleet and the sun have eaten 85% of the snowfall here.

Do you have the same for EWR any chance?

Definitely beefed up nicely vs previous runs. Ai had been a lot more bullish for a while. I’d love to sneak into 1-2” even if Winchester east got a Jack. Maybe tonight’s runs will keep the juicing going. wonder if the RAP is juiced up? lol

Grass is so disheartening.

Nice improvement from 12z. Seeing a wetter trend for sure. Also norther. Could be a “congrats Parkton” if it continues but it’s been a while so that’s okay. Would appreciate any and all snow TV on tap

My backyard has a few inches in places that get a lot of sun and 7-8” or so in places that don’t. I think we’re getting into the snow from late Jan and that’s solid ice.

Going with 52” in Huntington Station. I’ll go with 0.1” today also, there was a minor coating on colder surfaces.

Clearly some errors on that map. A trace in Northport? Not.

Crazy, I bet December and half Jan above normal, but 2nd half of Jan and Feb way below normal. Looking at this graphic distorts how cold mid Jan and Feb was

euro!

we're back

like Will said, mid month to about the 25th looks like there's plenty of fresh cold, and something could pop, I do think the torch will be a little more muted than 70s, maybe a day that hits 60+ but I'll take a few days in the 50s, I'm starting to get over it if it's not going to be cold and active, have so much spring shit to do, but I still have feet of snow in some spots, so a couple torch days with high DPs would be nice to get that down. one more biggie would cap off a good winter imo.

Does it ever really leave?

Cooling down quickly, 35f. Lots of melting during the day, freezing stuff at night going on. Watch your steps early in the morning. Still have mounds in parking lots 6 to 10 ft....

I mean Jay Peak. Come on.

Ugh this just means humidity is soon to be here.

Yea, but that is before I saw the gfs come north. .

You answered your own question earlier today

Wad