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To me this has been a slow bleed. Yes we had some great runs yesterday with the subpar models but thermals have been trending poorly for days. As others have noted, this isn’t a dynamic strong coastal low, so you’re not just going to wrap cold air in. It will be dynamic cooling we’re relying on and if you start at 38-40 at 10 am you’re in big trouble even if you get the precip
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Webb has gone full weenie this winter
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Flatter is the main trend seen so far. Makes sense given the progressive flow and has been the overall theme of the past few years, more times than not flatter, drier, and disorganized wins.
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So at 18 notice just an ass hair bit of ridging out ahead vs 6z. It's noticeable, but nothing huge so far
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This is literally insane. Every year we say it’s going to end
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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Scooter breaking down after getting called in the office after losing it on a junior employee? -
GFS looks similar through 006.
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Storm potential January 18th-19th
vegan_edible replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Reggie is weak, but it also isn’t flying along. Someone would probably get 6” out of that look -
Yesterday the GFS had around 6 inches of snow here. So far today it looks like I'll be lucky to see any snow and have cold rain instead. GFS is running now. Let's see if it folds.
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I miss the days when it would just snow here and we didn’t need 5,731 things to go right for it to. GSP hasn’t seen an inch of snow now in 1,459 days. Yeesh.
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Storm potential January 18th-19th
WeatherGeek2025 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
GFS gonna show a snowstorm now watch lmao -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
CoastalWx replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Sign me up for Reggie. No issues here. Kev can have his inch of paste too. -
It’s definitely starting to grab my interest again!! .
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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
RUNNAWAYICEBERG replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I thought it looked conducive early on for something bigger but whatevs…nobody should complain about a snowy weekend with a couple inches down. -
It's been a groan fest for most of the decade east of the apps. TN Valley has been way more fortunate the past 5 years.
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After the 1.20" of rain last week, my rate of fall leveled off a little. For a 7 day period from 12-19 to 12-26 , my water table dropped .73 Ft. For the 7 day period from 1-08 to 1-15 my water table only dropped .43 Ft. Glorious drought mitigation!!! 1.20" last week was 12% of rainfall needed.
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Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion
Chinook replied to SchaumburgStormer's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
So I guess this is the best storm Toronto has had in a decade. I'm not sure what any Canadian posters may have to say about this. I can't remember them ever boasting about 9.6" in the entire time AmericanWX has existed. and other storm reports of 6"-14.5" near Cleveland, 10"-20" by South Bend -
Winter 25/26 General Obs
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
And of course as soon as I get to Kingsport, it looks like something is trying to start up in the right area: -
I’m away, glad I’m not missing much.
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Still too much model variance to be confident in any solution. December 2017 might have track comps but wasn't that storm more amped? That low was stronger if I recall.
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Patfan1987 started following First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
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Storm potential January 18th-19th
Brian5671 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
no high to the north and a front stalled to the west would be a recipe for rain -
1-2" is hard to accumulate during daytime in CPK unless temps are cold. Verbatim, seems like temps are in mid 30s which would be white rain. Icon brought back some light snow on Sunday, with more moderate snowfall towards east New England. Let's see where rest of models fall on this.
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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
MegaMike replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Before 12z gets roll'n, here's what the 06z ensembles depict for QPF-mean and SFC MSLP: Will this trend into something like yesterday's 12z GFS? Probably not (as other mets mentioned), but at least the 0.5" QPF-mean contour is nearby (~Cape Cod; trying to be optimistic for the pessimistic weenies) for each ensemble. Given there's still a decent amount of spread at 96hrs, a lighter/moderate event may still be possible for eastern areas. I would like to see the EPS tick west at 12z, otherwise, I'd lower expectations if you haven't already. -
Winter 25/26 General Obs
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Noticed that and thought about you when I was driving up 81 this AM. That was really the only pace I noticed anything appreciable from Morgan county to Kingsport. Bays Mt band is no bueno this AM, but I did get some nice pics of Chimney Top:
