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  2. Cyclone-68
    I’m currently on a train heading north to the Grand Canyon. But even better than that is there a possibility of severe weather after tomorrow! Now THATS a vacation!
  3. Lucy Pull
    Yup agree on the omega look. Still think we’re prone to offshore flow and a similar look through 10 days. Have to see how long it takes to erode that. Modeling as you mention does look to push that out. We lose any semblance of negative heights northeast of Maine. Ahh yes another very productive post.
  4. SACRUS
    2024 : 83 in EWR / New Brunswick area NJ
  5. Keith Central PA
    I hate strong ninos and waiting for its demise.We peak early December and by next Summer neutral or a weak La Nina Definitely a more active hurricane season next year and a more promising winter then this probable disaster.
  6. mitchnick
    I should have included this as part of my thinking that this year will be better than 23/24. Compare the 10/23 forecast (top) from the Euro seasonal to the 10/26 forecast. Cfs2 was already painting a well AN winter forecast as of mid October, 2023. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202310/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  7. stormy
    27.2 at 7 . the coup de grace to all frost sensitive plant life.
  8. mappy
    Yeah clots are no joke.
  9. Terpeast
    So would I for blizzards. But from their message, I wonder why they didn’t include flood warnings. I would think that flood warnings would be a top case for that kind of wording.
  10. LakePaste25
    Yup, right on schedule
  11. Typhoon Tip
    looks like yet another NINO 3.4 spike has take place... ~+3.2C now.
  12. mitchnick
    Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time. P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño.
  13. mitchnick
    A low in the mean, so it doesn't guarantee a permanent low.
  14. mitchnick
    NAO will definitely end the month +. By exactly how much and its significance obviously tbd. Hopefully, Chuck's observation that any October +NAO favors the opposite for the winter prevails.
  15. winterwarlock
    I remember 2 fairly recent 80 plus Halloweens in the last 15 years
  16. A-L-E-K
    12z gfs selling an s tier 70s filled weekend, we're got it dialed in nice
  17. olafminesaw
    Incredible model battle here. I have a feeling I know which one is going to win
  18. FPizz
    Normal highs this week are like what 62-63?
  19. NEG NAO
    The airmass is beginning to moderate across the region mostly everone on the map will end up in the 60's for highs
  20. Torch Tiger
    Fortunately that storm stays way offshore. Nice run of wx ahead Tick tock, cold/snow seaaon on the clock and looks wasted through EOM
  21. Today
  22. GaWx
    Look how much the forecasted mean GEFS NAO has risen from its Oct 13th forecast to today’s forecast! Oct 13th: peaking at only +1.0 on Oct 15th and then plunging to -1/remaining down at -0.9 on Oct 27th: Today’s prog (Oct 19th): peaked not til today way up at +1.73 and already after a dip to -0.8 back up to ~0 on Oct 27th: I’m assuming this drastic change is related to the actual strong storm offshore the E US that wasn’t even forecasted back on Oct 13th thus leading to lower actual SLP in Iceland today than progged 6 days ago. Daily NAO: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.gefs.z500.120days.csv
  23. Michael05192016
    Hope we can get Halloween to be like the one that was shown in that epic 1980's Steven Spielberg movie "E.T. the Extraterrestrial". Would be nice to have mid 70's and sun for Halloween with no jackets or coats.
  24. winterwx21
    Of course I buy veggies at the grocery store too. But like many people I also grow a vegetable garden. You have a problem with people growing vegetable gardens? All I did was comment about being happy that we didn't get a frost yet. I didn't say anything about clouds. What a strange comment from you.
  25. dryslot
    Low this morning was 26.4°F, A bit chilly in the woods around 6 am.
  26. TSSN+
    All I know is I want to be in one of the first one of these. “The National Weather Service will implement the use of “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. This language will help forecasters alert partners and the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity. These rare events typically pose exceptional threats by posing imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services.”
  27. WxUSAF
    Yeah that’s super scary. I always think back to the one NBC reporter who died in the first week of the Iraq war from a blood clot because he was sitting in a humvee for like 3 days straight
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