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There’s been all this talk about the warmth out west (and rightfully so), but funnily the eastern half of the country has actually been warmer relative to average than the west halfway through the month, though that’s going to change soon obviously.

An argument can be made that the environment out ahead of the current TOR watch my actually be even more supportive for tornadoes and severe weather which is pretty striking to think about when you look at the probabilities within this watch. There is also potential activity out ahead of the main show could hinder the overall potential. Certainly discrete cells in this environment pose a concern but you pop main cells out ahead and they may not have as much forcing to work with (which would really help any discrete cells to maintain) and they could end up robbing some of the energy.

Looks like about .6 or so here based on local PWS stations.

Here in Alpena we got a second once in a century ice storm just like last March. Got 4" of drifted cement Sunday morning,then over .5" of ice accumulation. Lost power at 5 am after my neighbor's tree fell on the line and then watched 4 transformers blow. 65 percent of town has no power. Trees snapping constantly. 40 mph winds and 1" of snow forecasted tonight will be a kick in the nuts!

Storm to the SW of Cvill seems to have some decent rotation signature.

Too bad we can't get what the Mid-Atlantic is getting today.

Only 60 more model cycles to go lol.

My three PWS (Middleburg, Leesburg, Manassas) are 66.2/63.5, 66/63.6, 65.8/62.8. That's kinda wild that all three's temp/dp are within a single degree.

Even they can't find an hour 300 snowstorm this morning. OVER

Yep, pretty much same experience here with this initial line.

Temps feel great, at least. Planning to get out during lunch to enjoy it before the gusty line of showers moves thru later.

I’ve always done gym workouts or cardio, etc, but what made the most difference to just how I feel was starting to do 10-20 mins of yoga each morning a few years ago. Took aches and pains down 80% or more. Also helped limit the injuries that kept stopping gym routines. Has helped me be able to lose 10-15lbs.

Low of 6F Snow depth 8” 1-3” coming tomorrow We are so back…

They'll be waiting for a bit - if you look at the SPC MD's you can get a better idea - its still too far south for LWX to get into the action. It's possible within the hour or so I'd guess.

65/63 is better than I thought where we would be this morning. Small break in the cirrus over North Carolina Piedmont headed our way, but otherwise pretty socked in.

My office used to be in Hanover. In fact, Emergency Management may be in the same complex if I'm not mistaken. If it is the same complex, rest assured she'll have better choices in the area to eat than Popeye's.

"Funny" to see warnings already about to depart the watch box down there heading N and E

Going to be a crazy late afternoon and evening.

Heck yeah brother! Should be insane!

If the warm front is able to lift a bit further North, today could be a significant severe weather day, especially West of the Hudson. You can easily see here where the wind shift is and why storms should weaken as they get close to the city.

Something else that's under everyone's radar ( no wonder considering - ), is that there were occasional model cycles building warm anomaly heights over the eastern continent, replete with over-governing circulation modes back then too. It's just that there wasn't any consistency; save for the heat we did get last week, but that was outside the outlook. We were looking at mid month, i.e., now. Anyway, there did turn out to be a big heat anomaly. It packed back SW and is setting off headlines alerts. I've been noticing this over the last several summers actually, that type of correction vectoring. We'd see a big warm up/ridge type -PNAP emerge in the outer temporal horizon of the models, and then it would retrograde through the charts as time went by to just go ahead and end on up right back in the SW frying eggs on High School parking lot science experiments in PHX. I've mused to self that one of these global synergistic heat burst phenomenon might one day visit the NE U.S., should one of those evolve opposite of that persistent correction vectoring - but it's never seemingly capable of doing that since I started noticing that specific behavior. Then, in the winters... we are consummately getting this weird local cold node where despite the background CC evidence, we are - quite convenient and enabling ... - persistently colder than everyone else. I'm not convinced correcting west warmth in the summers, and consummate cold enabling verification in the winters, is entirely unrelated. Yet ... we are supposedly warming fast than anywhere on the planet in the era of accelerating CC? interesting

They literally said in their discussion yesterday that people would die today. Who are these idiots?

60/60, overcast.

Hey whatever works for you right? Glad you decided to try and become more healthy. Always a good thing.

No need to view models anyway with metfan and ineedsnow still posting.