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What station is that rare 9% RH in NH? Is that Plymouth?

Holy crap is it dry this afternoon. MPV with a temp of 70F and dew of 17F. KMPV 012051Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM CLR 21/M08 A3004 RMK AO2 13% RH

Pretty ideal situation going into the heart of the warm season. The slow protracted amounts are ideally suited for raising soil moisture.

Full steam ahead.

Next week could be a nice soaker. Which means I need to mow this weekend to cut the tall stuff but somehow avoid the stuff that's still brown.

Really nice supercell in western Maryland this afternoon.

Add in 9am - 1pm Saturday. My kids have had 3 softball rain outs in the first two weeks.

One heck of a rain shadow out there. I have a bit of a shadow with the ridge to my west but not like that area On that qpf -- please let the Euro be right for once!

I just need dry from 11am - 4pm on Monday. Hopefully we can pull off both windows!

I feel like with more moisture it’ll accelerate.

Please just stay dry through tomorrow evening. I have one spot on my deck left to stain. After that it can rain all we want.

I’m not really feeling it…maybe because of the breeze. I can always tell when we have a tropical influence in the air and this is definitely not it. Certainly not dry, though.

That’s going to slow down a lot next week

I’d say 10 days ahead minimum

Why does the PDO fluctuate more in a new climate though? Just because it happened once, and everything is getting warmer every day? It seems like you are looking at the '13-15 PDO period as strong in between strong -PDO periods, and saying "well since that happened it must be because of global warming". I don't think so. Global warming should be associated with a slowing of the pattern, leading to more stagnation, or persistent areas of high pressure. I think the windy/low pressure pattern that the Northern Hemisphere has been in since the Winter is anti-global warming (But that doesn't mean it's not going to keep warming).

Agreed, you can start seeing signs of that type of pattern setting on guidance

Oaks already getting leaves and can see those dongs ready to fall off soon. Seems a week ahead like woodyard man said.

And it will be spread over a few days so it will soak in gradually. I'd be very happy with 2" of rainfall spread over 3-4 days.

It's a week or more earlier this year. Lilacs usually aren't out yet but they're full bloom now.

I agree with you, and I see the Euro has backed off from the huge amounts and is now more in line with the other models. Most of the area is probably looking at a 2 to 4 inch rainfall for the period, which is good. We could use a big soaking.

2017-2018 was my last above average snowfall season due to a record March. 7 conecutive stinkers since.

After this nasty stretch hopefully we have a nice May

Extended looks wonderful here from a temperature perspective. We could use some precipitation. 5.48” since January 1st and daily averages are rising quickly.

Almost done with my recap of last season and how I did...will post it in the other thread when I finish within the next week or so. Not perfect by any stretch, but much better than last year.

I am with you, but just trying to keep an open mind. He did makes some valid points regarding ENSO in a warming climate that while I was initially skeptical of, I ended up capitulating to. He is a very night guy, but no one bats .1000.