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  2. Orange county
    Garner 1:55 We have had spectacular thunder for a good while-window rattling About that rain-where it be at? It isn't here
  3. The Iceman
    Mesoscale discussion out Mesoscale Discussion 2052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Aug 20, 2026 17:53Z Areas affected...parts of southeastern Pennsylvania...central and southern New Jersey...north central and eastern Virginia...much of Delaware and Maryland. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201753Z - 202000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to develop and intensify through 4-6 PM EDT, accompanied by the risk for a couple of tornadoes initially and increasing potential for strong to severe gusts spreading toward coastal areas into early evening. DISCUSSION...Moderate to strong boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing across much of the northern Mid Atlantic, particularly within seasonably high moisture content air advecting northward through the coastal plain, to the east of deepening (albeit weak) surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. This is occurring downstream of mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of convectively generated perturbations and belt of augmented westerly flow (30-50 kt in the 700-500 mb layer). It appears that associated forcing for ascent may increasingly begin to impact a corridor from central Maryland through southeastern Pennsylvania by 20-22Z, if not a bit earlier, supporting the initiation of intensifying thunderstorm development. At least initially, this may include a few evolving supercell structures in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Downstream of a developing wave along a weak low-level baroclinic zone strengthened by differential heating, low-level hodographs are forecast to remain modest to weak. However, they may still be sufficient to contribute to potential for a couple of tornadoes, aided by appreciable near-surface buoyancy developing in associated with insolation, warm advection and dew point increases into the lower 70s F. Otherwise, at least some upscale growth of initial storms will contribute to increasing potential for damaging surface gusts, with additional thunderstorm development southward along and east of the deeper lee surface troughing. ..Kerr/Smith.. 08/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  4. wxmeddler
    Red Box coming soon.
  5. csnavywx
    No reason to think this train pauses before printing some 1.8-2.0 months.
  6. powderfreak
    Can you meh yourself back into 1”+?
  7. Typhoon Tip
    the s. hemisphere the tropics are lewd while the antarctic itself has a scary trend line originating over the last 1.5 months. It'll likely correct down some - we hope. The scalar value at the end of that rust curve is ~ 4th or 5th overall, to date. You don't wanna see early positive anomaly investments of that look before their annual recover is set to get going, in about a 3 weeks.
  8. AdamHLG
    wow! This guy did the math!
  9. Layman
  10. Sey-Mour Snow
    Upgraded WPC outlook looking like southern CT will see a good 2-4” soaking tonight.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    My take on today. Made before the Dulles sounding, but I doubt that changes too much from the parameters shown on mesoanalysis.
  12. vortex95
    I share your skepticism, b/c so many fails this summer. But past performance does not....
  13. IronTy
    Stay safe.
  14. wxmeddler
  15. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  16. MANDA
    Associated discussion and Flash Flood Watch was also lifted slightly north and NW from earlier this morning.
  17. dailylurker
    I'm trying to finish a job in Crofton and I'm getting nailed with heavy rain. It's a small shower but it's heavy.
  18. batmanbrad
    CSU-MLP latest had the best TOR chances between Baltimore and Philly
  19. yoda
    The 18z sounding should be very interesting
  20. GaWx
    The average 3.4 SSTa adjusted for GW has leaned significantly toward La Niña the last 20 years with an avg anomaly of -0.3C.
  21. dailylurker
    Raining and cloudy in Crofton. I've seen this one before lol
  22. chubbs
    Here's Zeke H latest forecasts (updated daily). An August record is almost guaranteed, while a record for 2026 is currently a coin flip. Monthly and yearly record odds have both been increasing as the month continues to run warm. https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global
  23. vortex95
    I know the event has yet to unfold, but recall a few days go, someone asked "is this it for svr for awhile for the region? And look at the DY3 outlook from 8/18 (attached). Now? 5% tor risk hatched? So it shows how things that do not look so good 3+ days out, can turn around, and sometimes big. The fine mesoscale details are everything, and sometimes it is only apparent that day hours before, or sometimes in real-time (June 5, 2024 comes to mind). May 3, 1999 epic OK tor outbreak. It was clear as mud as to the extent of that event. Morning outlook had SLGHT, upgraded to MDT by 1630z, and the 20z outlook when HIGH. The issue that day was lots of clouds and enough diurnal heating for storm to fire in the first place. And it was not synoptically-evident big tor outbreak day. And yet the result was the biggest single day OK tor outbreak for total tors (66) on record, and some monsters that revealed some amazing data from the DOWs. June 29.,2012 derecho here. That morning it was SLGHT, and by the aftn update, it was upgrade to HIGH as it was apparent the derecho in the OH Valley was taking on a life of its own, and again a historic event. The above are the exceptions, not the rule, but it shows how we can still be "surprised." And that uncertainty still exists today, despite all our advances.
  24. weatherbo
    Cool nights/dry weather can't help but notice.
  25. H2O
    12:58 it got sunny. I missed it by 6 fcking minutes
  26. GaWx
    1. Yes 2. I went from the beautiful Estes Park to Rock Cut (where I walked a bit) and then turned around. On the way back at Forest Canyon, I walked the entire paved path and checked out all of the amazing views. I also stopped at most of the pullovers on each side going and coming back. On the way down, I walked a short dirt path to a beautiful meadow with a tiny stream surrounded by wildflowers. Very peaceful with nobody nearby! (I can’t post because pics are way too large for the attachment limits here.) I spent a total of ~3 hours inside the park. 2. Thanks! Next time I may try Old Fall River Road. How does it compare to TRR safety wise? Even though I loved driving TRR and was very careful, I admit slight feelings of danger on the many parts with a steep drop right off the edge! @mayjawintastawm
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