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  2. Typhoon Tip
    agreed... wild digression ...buuut: all of society is bottle-necking reliance with technology. While doing so, there's no redundancies. There should be back up systems that achieve the same tasks, like in "off" mode, ready to be turned on in the event of calamity. It's getting closer to a one system handling everything. Banking, to heart surgery, to flying airliners, to surfing porn on the web, and everything else that machines civility along, if that one agency goes down, heh... It's too easy to even write that Sci Fi dystopian novel. First, make make the entire species slaved to one system, which is eventually either by design or hostility, taken over by a proverbial Skynet type agency ...and well, shit - we've already seen that movie, huh. But anyway, I see this kind of thing all the time. I wish they still would run old systems that worked, but were abandoned because of the evolution of ease and convenience. Like if the NBM future system has an outage... we can still look at the constituent parts.
  3. WxWatcher007
    I think so. From what I’ve seen AI has done very well with broader steering and genesis window forecasting at medium and longer range. Less so with intensity but Melissa was a win last season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run.
  5. forkyfork
  6. Brian5671
    same ol dry pattern persisting
  7. Torch Tiger
    Not a bad 24-hour lead for our region Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north-northeastward across Indiana/Ohio. New severe storm development, perhaps MCV-influenced and transitioning out of the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible across Indiana into Ohio. Shear profiles will be excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. The warm frontal position will need to be monitored northward toward the Indiana/Michigan border vicinity. Even if instability is elevated into Michigan, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado risk.
  8. guinness77
    Tomorrow’s threat appears to be falling apart on the models. North and west of city seem to have best chance of precip.
  9. cyclone77
    Yeah it's only in the mid 50s here with a driving rain. Big change later though, should see dews near 70 in about 7-8hrs. 0.59" rain so far.
  10. Kmlwx
    I wonder if that's a factor of the larger nature of tropical systems and them being more susceptible to the larger scale upper-level pattern(s). With severe, so much is dependent on much smaller scale factors that are below the "resolution" of a broad AI model that might just look at the overall pattern.
  11. Cyclone-68
    The sun will rise, the sun will set and Iowa will still get a derecho
  12. BeastFromTheEast
    Doesn’t feel like a summer day at all today, nice fall vibes. 50s and rain around lunchtime, sick
  13. A-L-E-K
    remember the drought?
  14. snowman19
  15. WxWatcher007
    There is a very weak wind shift right off the Texas coast per recon. Unclear if that’s enough for an upgrade but it might be.
  16. bluewave
    You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February. But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.
  17. weatherwiz
    I don't think so. The idea of multiple rounds has been modeled quite well with this round expected to be quite intense as well. This will certainly impact things on a mesoscale level and may result in some shifts in best potential for later as this could influence how far north the warm front gets. But you can see it will (well already kind of is) rapidly intensity from east-central Missouri into south-central Illinois and that air will lift north as the warm front does. If anything, this MCS may lead to further enhancement for some localized strong/violent tornado potential with residual outflow boundaries and enhanced local vorticity
  18. WxWatcher007
    Will just say that AI has been really promising with regard to tropical forecasting. Exceptional actually, imo.
  19. WxWatcher007
    What happened to the man I used to know? They’ll have a solid day later.
  20. Chrisrotary12
    IL/IN severe cancel due to morning MCS?
  21. weatherwiz
    Definitely going to need those temps and even if we can push the dews into the lower 70's. LFC looks pretty high tomorrow so definitely going to need extra support
  22. nvck
    Both HRRR & RRFS are too slow, and not far enough SW with the ongoing convection
  23. SchaumburgStormer
    Reverse jinx. THIS IS OUR MOMENT
  24. sbnwx85
    It’s over for us up here.
  25. kdxken
    I don't know. Keene always seems to get whacked .
  26. nwohweather
    Possibly. HRRR if you go with it would be essentially a moderate cancel. I’d downgrade if I were the SPC at this time
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