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They won't have a thread for one of the worst heatwaves on record for their area, but will have a thread for an hr 240 Noreaster on Nov 15th...

Synoptic thoughts... Tomorrow should be cooler on the coast where there's likely to be the nascent yet still feeble onshore wind developing... In the interior, probably still makes the low 80s. The hydrostatic heights are not really falling very much below 570 dm, which is technically a very warm atmosphere relative to our climate. What could offset this, however ...is if we get more organized convection sparked off and rumbling through late today and night. SPC is currently loaded everything well SW so ... not sure what there why - haven't read. Anyway...if it stays dry, 80s in the interior tomorrow looking at that soundings. But if gets wet, that would process out the "non-Markovian" memory of the system and we'd end up more shallow cool below synoptic inversion ... There really isn't a BD front being analyzed by WPC ( tho they seldom do)...but looking around at area obs/sat, there isn't one. The main b-c axis is up along the ST S-way, pretty far NW. But, with heights receding it's like the NAM is sort of instantiating a boundary - which isn't physically impossible to see a frontogenesis of sorts, if the flow aloft has height falls while speeding up.. The Euro and GFS seem to be doing the same thing.... It's why we get all that rain ( maybe...) the day after tomorrow. That nascent boundary provides an isotropic lifting interface, and because the flow to push it south is ultimately too weak to actually do so... we may start training a bit. It's an interesting set up. Very weak synoptic forcing, with high volatility/PWAT access... The latter is pseudo-adiabatically very unstable. It can over perform with less motivation to do so.

Heh ... appears on schedule to me. It's a tedious examination perhaps but just sayn' It's 88/72 with ample sun and light W to WNW wind... We'll likely make the MAV 92 to 94s which has been in forecast for some time.

One of mine is loaded with catkins and has female flowers. The other two have male catkins for the first time…just hoping it’s enough to pollinate the big one! The pawpaws are still holding 6 fruit. It was a great June for the plants.

Yea Upton did mention the storms will be quick moving like yesterday

I doubt they will even do that because of TV schedules - but chances are there will not be anything severe over that particular area of the Hudson at the exact time the fireworks are scheduled

They'll just wait for the storms to pass....

More rain early this morning brings us to 2.70" total since Thu evening. Great soaker.

97 yesterday for a high. Headed up to York later today to watch baseball and fireworks. We got a suite box so I will be incredibly glad for the inside AC part of our box

Happy the Heat is ending a bit earlier than forecast-been brutal and both my sons work at golf courses....on side note-some will never miss their round-I was figuring there would be little work-not correct at all.

I think heat lightning rolls off the tongue better than lightning from a distant thunderstorm.

Really hoping today bust or stays away from the city

they already said it will not be cancelled - too many $$ involved...........

Wasn't home for it. Only got .03" but it must have been very windy because the pool is full of leaves

should be very interesting online here later today - hopefully news outlets will keep people updated because of how many people will be outdoors today - last night's storms were down right dangerous with the high winds.

Yea real tough call. I’ll be in Long Island hopefully they fall apart out east lol

You're dealing with heavy thunderstorms so amounts will vary considerably place to place. That's a huge signal that someone could get hammered (6"+) though. 1-3" per hour type stuff

Brian, my fruit trees are doing good. Apples, peaches, Concord Grapes and 2 of my Chestnut trees have Male catkins. Wheather they are close enough to cross pollinate remains to be seen but I could possibly have some Chestnuts to share come fall! Happy 4th to all!

Subject to change .. but I’ve been thinking .5- .75 .. if lucky 1” If happen to get a storm today that’s not included Enjoy the 4th . It’s as hot as a firecracker https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/2073385963242340699?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Thing is today is supposed to be much more widespread than yesterday as we have a clear trigger.

No such thing as heat lightning. It's a distant thunderstorm.

What’s your forecast for your backyard? Happy 4th!

That’s about 1.5” 2” here and it had 5-6 00z, Point being wagons south with heaviest

Funny enough, that's exactly what the HRRR is showing.

I’m more than a little skeptical of big totals, but with that gradient and high amounts of moisture available someone will get smoked.