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Latest HRRR beefed up totals everywhere. Good start to the 0z suite.

Here is the 18z (for snow by 20z Sunday) -

hmmm...sounds like there might be some other issues that need to be addressed.....

Picked up .7" snowfall last evening in persistent and at times heavy snow squalls. Visibility on Route 80 at the height of things was horrendous with moderate to heavy snow at times and a gusty wind. The salt water spray being kicked up onto the windshield was no help either. The .7" last evening boosts my seasonal total to 2.3". On a nickle and dime ride to 3".

So is the RRFS the same thing/the replacement for HRRR? And they’re running them both currently?

Hrrr

Yup I called it last week. These systems aren't digging but are sweeping. Good for yall though. Has a nice wintery feel. Got a lot more winter to go.

That was excellent Ryan. Very interesting and reasonable. A breath of fresh air from the constant hyperbole from most of the others. Can’t wait to watch one when something major threatens. Thanks and keep up the good work.

Stay safe

I wonder why the 18z and 6z gfs always only show a favorable for cold pattern way out in lala land but 12z 0z usually don't. I know the off runs are partially initialized compared to the 12z 0z. Still intrigued in the less negative pdo

Weatherbell is more generous - 3” down to DC. Really juiced up.

Frosty Boners sounds like a fantastic Christmas album. .

0z hrrr

yes. get your cameras ready. it may be the only snow of the season; if you celebrate holidays and have decorations, it is a rare chance to get great seasonal photos; make a card.

Long range HRRR starting to look like other guidance now at 00z, it’s been the most paltry.

Just saw these

Weed tonight now?

What time did it hit? Explains all the snow in Kearny.

Latest Sref mean...it's creeping north.

Wait I missed this. Snow tomorrow too now?

I think the NWS tends to lean NBM - latest run has Morgantown with a 44% chance of 8" or more. 76% chance of 6" or more. Pretty decent odds. I'm sure the typical places with orographic lift will jackpot. AGC has a 46% chance of 6" or more for the same run. Almost a coin flip. Blend mean is 4.1" total but it seems to favor an amount between 4-7" for AGC. That's definitely bullish, as even the unreliable but typically juiced SREF mean is lower, but I'm not sure what ratio that plot measures.

In this pattern we take this and run. It’s still overall hostile for any kind of significant snow.

All dreaming aside, we will warm up this week, but the pattern reshuffle will keep Canada cold. The core of the warm up will be in the Midwest & South. The northeast should still be able to occasionally tap into some of the available Canadian cold. With well timed Highs nosing in from eastern Canada, we could still have Winter weather chances once we head into Christmas week.

<<< LOWEST DECEMBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES >>> Rank __ Year __ Temp _ 01 ____ 1917 __ 47 (1st) _t02 ____ 1872 __ 49 (15th), 1876 _ 49 (13th), 1880 _ 49 (5th), 1890 _ 49 (3rd), 1926 _ 49 (14th) _t07 ____ 1874 __ 51 (3rd), 1882 _ 51 (6th), 1904 _ 51 (28th) _t10 ____ 1909 __ 53 (6,13,14), 1944 _ 53 (8th), 1955 _ 53 (3rd), 1989 _ 53 (31st) (was 2nd lowest 48 before that) _t14 ____ 1903 __ 54 (13th), 1910 _ 54 (30th), 1945 _ 54 (8th), 1997 _ 54 (16th) _t18 ____ 1871 __ 55 (23rd), 1883 _ 55 (8th), 1886 _ 55 (24th), 1888 _ 55 (17th), 1902 _ 55 (22nd) ___ ___ t18 __ 1933 _ 55 (25th), 1958 _ 55 (5th), 1963 _ 55 (8th), 1976 _ 55 (7th), 1985 _ 55 (2nd, 24th), ___ ___ t18 __ 1995 _ 55 (3rd), 2005 _ 55 (24th) _t30 ____ 1907 __ 56 (10th), 1929 _ 56 (14,15,19), 1935 _ 56 (9th), 1974 _ 56 (8th), 1977 _ 56 (14th) _t35 ____ 1870 __ 57 (4th), 1894 _ 55 (12th), 1896 _ 57 (13th), 1898 _ 57 (30th), 1907 _ 57 (23rd), ___ ___ t35 _ 1915 _ 57 (18th), 1922 _ 57 (1st), 1943 _ 57 (9th), 1959 _ 57 (13th) _t44 ____ 1887 __ 58 (11th), 1892 _ 58 (8th), 1913 _ 58 (3rd), 1920 _ 58 (14th) ___ ___ _t44 _ 1925 _ 58 (5th, 6th), 1930 _ 58 (1st), 1942 _ 58 (2nd), 1947 _ 58 (3rd), 1948 _ 58 (13th), ___ ___ _t44 _ 1961 _ 58 (5th), 1981 _ 58 (2nd), 2003 _ 58 (13th), 2019 _ 58 (10th) _t57 ____ 1877 __ 59 (20th), 1884 __ 59 (31st), 1893 __ 59 (16th), 1899 _ 59 (11th,12th), 1900 _ 59 (24th), ___ ___ t57 _ 1905 _ 59 (3rd), 1906 _ 59 (31st), 1921 _ 59 (1st)1952 _ 59 (11th), 1957 _ 59 (20th), ___ ___ t57 _ 1972 _ 59 (31st), 1983 _ 59 (12th, 13th), 1986 _ 59 (3rd), 2004 _ 59 (8th, 23rd) ================================================ Up to 1910, it was normal for December to fail to break 59 F, it happened in 30 of 42 years (71%). From 1911 to 1960 it happened 23 more times (46%). From 1961 to 2000 it happened 13 more times (33%). From 2001 to 2024 it happened 4 more times (17%). (2003,04,05,19) Overall it has happened 70 times (45%). The interval 2006 to 2018 (13 Decembers) is the longest interval without a sub-60 maximum value. Before that, the longest such interval was ten years (1964 to 1973) and before that six years (1936 to 1941). The average value for all years is 60.3 F. Since 1961 the average is 62.2 F. Since 1990 it is 62.9 F.

Never mind. I scrolled back and saw them. Thing is, neither of those two are even geographically in our sub forum.