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Well the diffused blob was so diffuse that I got nothing from it other than more humidity. I bottomed out at 70 this morning and it's currently 86 with a dp of 70 (which should be banned anytime before July). I did see the upcoming forecast for rain on and off into the weekend so hopefully I get something from that (looks like an overrunning event along the cold front).

Can't wait to watch the cumulus build over the Blue Ridge the next few weeks

TTN and PHL record high is 94 for 5/20, KABE is 92. All 3 should have a shot at breaking it. SPC has upgraded the area to a slight risk for wind this afternoon/evening, looks like we should see several rounds of scattered storms beginning after 18z then most models are showing an area of steady rain with the front now overnight into tomorrow morning, should hopefully be a decent soaking. This weekend is also looking like a much needed washout, it's a shame though it's Memorial Day weekend. Maybe we can get Sunday mostly dry, but looking like showers/rain/cool most of the weekend ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front, but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead of the front.

Looks close to where we are at, we are off Carothers

The 7z run knocked BDL down to 92 for today but gotta say...the NBM did quite well for yesterday's temps. In the case of today, the only thing I can think of is there was a good bit of guidance perhaps slower with the cold front. I want to read more into what changes were made with NBMv5...I briefly did this a few weeks ago and there was mention this version was even more accurate with temperatures. I think the NBM may have a more "accurate" mixing capability versus traditional MOS and also isn't as scaled or tied into climo.

I would take my chances with another 1997 versus 2023.

I spend most of the last few days on the road in the midwest, but it seems while I was gone, I had my first IMBY 90 degree day of the year. 91.4 on 5/17. I have daily records from my weather station going back to 2019, and it appears that I have never actually recorded a temperature over 100. I guess that's the magic of being outside the lowest parts of the valley. It's possible that an actual air temp of 100+ hasn't happened since the 2012 heat wave, but I wasn't recording or saving data back then.

A super nino winter can also hold surprises and extreme events even though the overall backdrop is above normal temps. I think Cincy had it's greatest 24 hr snowfall in Feb of '98. Weird cut off low dropping snow to the south and rain to the north. It probably won't be completely boring and I'm sure there will be some fantasy storms to track.

Yeah we are burning out here too. So much for the big wet nino pattern at least so far.

I'll believe it when I can feel the rain. I'm getting flashbacks to last summer. We had a very dry spell, then a week of 80% POP's forecasted. The first several days of rain busted. To quote Jeff, drought breeds drought.

Agreed. Better to get some protracted strataform rains then days of misery mist. Any storms and heavy rain today will likely just run off. Earliest I have ever seen brown lawns around here. .

Such bad luck-it's going to be back into the 70's and maybe 80 next week

.09” of rain in Lanco .

Can’t wait for the “not a torch!!!” copium on twitter because it’s 45 and cloudy in nyc under a CAD setup while it torches everywhere else

Didn't think it was going to be 2+" of rain. Was thinking 1" and just crappy most of the weekend.

11z HRRR mixes our low level dewpoints out to the upper 50s by initiation time (~2:00 pm), while the NAMNAM Nest keeps the dews in the 60s.

This weather sucks for mid to late May

If it’ll be raw and nasty, might as well get the benefit of a good soaking. Hopefully it edges NE in the next day or two.

Back door front looks significantly delayed tomorrow in triangle, likely to be close to if not just as hot as today now. Delayed but not denied!

Feels like a mid summer morning. Already 80 with a dew of 68. (Waits for @uofmiamito tell me it doesn’t feel humid outside)

Fortunately Charlie we have the facts and math to prove clearly how much faster PHL is warming than Chester County PA from 1941 through 2025. Since the growth rate not just to the eye but based on the slope certainly shows that PHL has a much steeper warming growth line than Chester County. Charlie as you can plainly see it is not even close. PHL is warming much faster than Chesco!

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front, but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead of the front.

Good call