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  2. Nams seemed like they wanted to at 6z, but they still seem a bit lost.
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  4. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  5. We do not need 5.4 inches of rain. Jesus Christ. I hope this is wrong.
  6. And this is why you don’t make a threat thread.
  7. Hopefully nam just being the nam and was up all night drinking. I'd really rather not see any 978mb tempest sitting anywhere out there by later on today.
  8. Every single model is in agreement on what happens. There's no model taking this into Maine and hitting Maine. This is a high impact storm that will impact millions of people. They need to hoist warnings up ASAP.
  9. They are usually late to the party. Same thing during the winter. They might be hesitant though and want to see what happens with the runs today.
  10. If it's not exciting for the NYC region, there should be plenty to observe, forecast and learn from, during this very strong El Nino. We've already seen many climatologically unusual weather events by late SEPT. If you can afford it, a small amount from those who can afford will help us all. Students & enthusiasts with limited funds- we want to keep the board active for you. Just enjoy the high quality (and frequently low quality!) forecasts. observations, and explanation by the professional who are will to spend their time to help us learn & understand.
  11. I'm really concerned that NWS is warning New England but not Long Island. I don't really believe Boston is going to get the same impact that Long Island is. In fact, I don't even think the low pressure, until its completely fizzled out, moves north Seaside Heights. Every model has this moving West. So why are placed like MA and RI getting the warnings and not Long Island? Upton is REALLY slow to pull the trigger here.
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  13. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  15. In scanning through the overnight model runs I am really struck by the remarkable agreement of the forthcoming wind storm about to ravage the area. Model after model showing gusts to 40 - 60 mph from overnight Friday into Sunday. It’s not just LI which will get the worst of it. It includes NYC, NJ, SE NY, even into parts of eastern PA and then into southern New England. Fully leafed trees and heavy rains look to combine with this to cause widespread power outages.
  16. Nolo appears to be wrapping convection around the eye now and trying to mix out some dry airmass. We'll see just how strong it can get prior to the closest approach of the Big Island.
  17. Fay looks like it is going to run out of time again. Clearly, the dry environment is causing issues and inhibiting core development. Increasing shear will start impacting the system by this afternoon.
  18. Polo is still putting on a show once again. The eye has warmed and the CDO has cooled. It probably will regain Category 5 intensity on the next update.
  19. Happening as we get closer to gametime too. Might be converging toward that middle ground I talked about last night. Another 50-100mi north wouldn't be outrageous. This is still a tough setup to precisely predict.
  20. Seems most storms get pulled north and east the last 24 to 48 hours hopefully this works in our favor.. 12z will be interesting either way
  21. Lots of mesoscale models(NAM, HRDPS, RGEM, etc) have been ramping up the short term intensity of the storm +24h tonight
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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