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NAM and all, but maybe not a complete washout for parts of SNE?

And we know how the 3 km NAM handles tropicals. I recall in the late 2010s, it shows a 860 mb system in the Gulf, and it ended up a min HU (barely). And goes to show how ignorant or disingenuous some are on social media. They either have no clue of model limitations or know all to well, but show an extreme model solution anyway b/c it gets clicks/likes.

You wrote: There's a lot of social science and understanding the psychology of the general public that needs to be considered to get people to act appropriately. It is what it is. The problem here is that it has been adopted "more is better." No, it is not. Ever hear of the boy who cried wolf? There comes a point of diminishing returns, and that is in form of apathy and the public having no way to scale or quantify any wx events, it is always "catastrophic" or "extremely dangerous." Run-of-the-mill storms, and you'd think the world was ending. Yes, social media does this but over time, I have see Federal agencies adopt this wording as well. It may be it is what is, but that does not mean it is right or beneficial. On the more specific musing for the upcoming storm... My issue is that they (NHC) are letting non-wx/science issues compromise the hard met science. And my criticism does not mean I do not respect NHC. I do. But you can show respect and still criticize or point out issues. The problem is that sometimes they or any agency will get all bent out of shape and defend/deflect to the end when ppl bring up valid points and issues. Recall the push-back from the NWS when ppl were upset and calling out the lack of a TOR for Springfield MA in 2011? 10 minutes late. Yes, I know the issues as it was discussed on this group, but my biggest issue is how they handled it w/ snark and some could say plain vitriol. Don't insult our intelligence, it was messed up big time for number of reasons, so fess up and take responsibility. Getting back to NHC, some years ago, I was told by a Lead Met at a NEUS WFO, NHC does not handle TCs outside the tropics and subtropics well, not when it comes to risk and watches/warnings. You can't treat a TC at mid-latitudes like farther S. Asymmetries, accelerations and baroclinic effects make them much more variable than in the tropics. I recall one event from 2009 or 2010 (HU Bill or Earl). They had TS warnings as far W as BDR. This was for a TC that clearly was going to stay E of Cape Cod. So w/ such warnings up that far W, the probability of *sustained* TS winds (not gusts) is extremely low. And we know for many TC recurving offshore, the winds on the W side are significantly reduced due to the asymmetrical wind field and the storm's forward acceleration. Putting up such warnings is non-trivlal, it has huge business and commerce impacts. TC forecasting and modelling has immensely advanced in the last 30 yr alone, yet I do not see us taking full advantages of that for watches/warnings. It's still overdone often. Not every TC situation is the same, so you can not apply general standardized rules as if it is "one-size fits all." What may occur for this upcoming storm may be something we have not seen before (STS develop from a ET low near the NEUS coast) and I would say it is not a very low probability event. What, do you just ignore that completely b/c you are worried about this or that? Forget social media, and just do you job and stick to the met science.

Joe Bastardi, who I often don’t agree with, continues to insist this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it thus should be named. He says the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving it a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm (well above 79F) due largely to GW. Per JB, evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, he posted the Euro having a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this projected weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. He said tides may go as high as 3-6 feet AN at NYC! Does anyone here recall a purely cold-core nor’easter in this region this early in the fall? Aren’t those usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm?

Polo is back in a big way. Not often we see a hurricane lose C5 status and come back like this.

Picked up over 2 inches of Rain (2.25) here from 6 to 8 this Evening. Prior to this, I had recorded only .98 for the Month. Western Lee County has done well with 5-6 inches for the Month.

I have some data on my page. No graphics

Hammer forgets the far eastern part of the state every big storm that misses HFD

Been steadily raining this evening, but I think y’all got more to my west again. Just shy of 1.5 inches now since midnight, but hardly any returns on radar.

Why though? You can pick who you follow on each. Your fault for following trash.

I’d say it’s more designed for mesoscale stuff like convection. It’s better for that, just meant not good for this stuff. Like showing 3K NAM for tropicals.

I was just thinking of that! It's The Weather Company's model now, correct? IBM sold them off years ago. So that guy can't even get his terminology right. Sloppy! I recall the GRAF model being pushed when it shows Dorian in 2019 hitting FL. How did that work out?

Leave it to this person to post the most extreme model solution. This guy is among the worst hype-masters out there. No quantifying uncertainty, just stating gusts to 90 mph as if it is a done deal ("will batter"). Deplorable and irresponsible. And this shows a much greater risk to the Mid-Atlantic than the NEUS. That's not what most models are showing. This is non-trivial difference and only serves to confuses the public and authorities more. " 'Our' IBM GRAF model?" What's this possessive nonsense? As if to portray it's his TV station's exclusive? Many TV stations used the GRAF. Disingenuous and arrogant.

I've been a longtime defender of NHC decisions on most of their designations, but in recent years (perhaps since Sandy?) I think they've been a little slower or hesitant when it comes to designating anything north of the Carolinas when it's not a slam dunk case. I provided a couple of examples a day or two ago. I can't say for sure, and I definitely do not make this statement to challenge the integrity of the great people working there, but I've seen public facing organizations generally hold a more conservative approach when it comes to making calls that could minimize credibility. We see here in this thread people that follow wx closely minimizing this, and the general public for better or worse will fall into the camp of this is the most dangerous thing ever or it's really no big deal. The NHC is in a lose-lose in public perception. Even a TWO mention ramps up the hype machine and everything that comes with it, and if it falls short of expectations in either direction people may be less likely to care about what the NHC says in the future. Hopefully I'm wrong, but its harder for the meteorology to stand alone in this era of social media and hype. Just look at the clowns posing the Sandy 2.0 stuff on Twitter and people sharing 925mb wind plots like we're a few thousand feet higher up. There's a lot of social science and understanding the psychology of the general public that needs to be considered to get people to act appropriately. It is what it is.

This will be nothing like October 2021. That was moving west and then west-southwest with the best gradient overhead. It had like 70kts+ at 950 overhead. Pretty good inversion above 925mb here with 61F SSTs.

Not IBM anymore and that model isn’t that good.

This may not be the classic El Nino pattern for October, but it is +AAM in the northern latitudes AAM cycles usually reverse every 40-45 days so I'd expect something non-El Nino like in mid November

As I posted above, JB is insisting this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it should be named. He agrees with you that the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm due largely to GW. More evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, the Euro has a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. You mentioned that you don’t recall a nor’easter like this in Sept. I don’t either. They’re usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm. He said tides may go to 3-6 feet AN!

Twitter is as much as a cesspool as facebook, if not more so.

Final sunset of vacation.

Extraordinary/outlier patterns often yield extraordinary/outlier events. This is one of them from a climo standpoint -- this kind of strong Nor'easter in Sep. Also, I have to wonder about the winds and mixing, given the near climo peak of SSTs and SSTs 2-4 C above avg S and SE of the region. If it ends up more unstable, the winds mixing down could be something else. Coast only or inland as well? And as we saw w/ the Oct 2021 event, those lows that loop back a bit to the NW when a big high is present to the NW, that can do some pretty wild things w/ the winds. Also, will the low deepen as a hybrid and get stronger than fcst?

Clown maps