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Yep hence the other problem. Might be light snow falling for a while but marginal temps means maybe little/no accum in the city, heavier rates and a more consolidated system means better cold air on northerly winds. Likely better where there's some elevation and away from the city but keep expectations in check.

Anyone want to comment on the ROFLMAO model? Pummeled, mauled, raked. Get your Jebman shovels ready. We’ll be diggin for days. PS—those BA stouts definitely did a number on me.

You mean you don’t like it when it’s below freezing, windy, and cloudy with no snow?

I see the pile at the bottom of the cliff is growing Seems like a good time to post this old people winter folklore I found while looking for JB's weenie stages of heartbreak for @RaleighNC This probably has just as much truth as the GFS

Unless it shows a crush job. Then it's awesome. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Do tell Luke.

Fodder, but that’s one tasty Reggie

Lesson of the day and forever-look at 500mb before any surface chart. Positively tilted strung out piece of garbage with vorticity from Toronto to New Orleans results in garbage at the surface most likely shoved way east regardless of how any surface chart and pretty snow map looks. Maybe it still works out for a couple inches, better than nothing. The Pacific needs to slow down and stop flinging endless shortwaves into the US, and we should count ourselves very lucky we got the snow we did in Dec. If somehow it all works out and it did in Dec, I'll be thrilled but more likely than not this regime won't. It's just reality. Any big opportunity will likely come late this month or in Feb like it has the last few winters and in general.

Gfs and gefs also. Slowly.

Lol I get severe whiplash reading through these pages. Still worth watching for a moderate event but obviously a big hit looks off the table. Still concerning EC wants nothing to do with it hopefully some kind of agreement at 00Z.

Typical. GFS is an awful model both ways

Imma read the latest AFD from Mount Holly- I'm positive they are going to mention the RRFS experimental model. Oh and the RGEM.

Late next week definitely looks like the period to watch.

Well I’m down here in the holler at the head of the crick so yes!

I can say with strong confidence that if that GFS run was reality you’d be hard pressed to find a slushy inch anywhere

I continue to stand with the Pope on this one.

GEFS will be better

Ai gfs ftw

Models don’t help me much about snow but they do seem to get extreme winter temp onsets correctly. Those temp projections are 1982 1994 like with DC area highs around 10 and low -5. I’m unsure we can do that kind of cold around here anymore but maybe we get a chance to see

Apparently the Sunday system is getting *checks notes* a recon flight now. Are they trying to get a better picture of the Atlantic ridging? Or are they flying to sample the vort??

Typical Nina pattern. First it's cold, dry and windy with the freezing line down to Georgia, then there's a storm or two 300 miles offshore. Then when we finally do get a storm that brings us precip, the freezing line retreats to just south of Buffalo, NY. Then we rinse and repeat.

18z AIgfs came west

26F - probably due to elevation (and unblocked western exposure), I'm often just a tick colder than you when the UHI effect is more muted (like right now).

this weather actually sucks.