All Activity

Yeah, a bit better some ways and a bit worse in others, so probably a wash.

I'm probably no more than a couple inches above you guys. Even rain has underperformed here lately. But I am for anybody on this board who can cash in. You have to figure anybody on here is probably a snow fan.

https://x.com/timbuckleywx/status/1996067257181417685?s=46

I've been up in Springfield (northeast of downtown) for the last 3 years or so (but getting back to Connecticut hopefully sometime soon). I ended up with 4" which was right on the upper end of what I was anticipating over the weekend. The way it was going yesterday I thought I'd have a shot for maybe 6-7" but as soon as I mentioned that, the snow stopped and we went to freezing rain. Probably got close to 1/10" of accretion. But yup...if we can muster up multiple 2-3" events in the next few weeks, that starts adding up quickly.

yeah ... this 'dunging' actually started stinking up the charts some two days ago... You know, it's possible that we're going to end up compression cooked for decent events through the remainder of this blessed pattern - although philosophically, the pattern is not good if it does not actually deliver. I guess technically ...this thing yesterday was a delivery, because it was only December 2 ..etc.etc. But a lot was robbed from it. So it's like bad aftertaste. I just gotta say this... I've noticed that over the last 10 to 15 years ( it sort of really began way back during and post the supernino of 1998 is more coherently noticeable over recent decades) whenever the local hemisphere moves toward a necessarily cold enough one for snow, the flow is fucking way too fast. These systems are weirdly racing through the height tapestry like there's less Y (North-South) forcing, and an abundance of X (West to East). Something in the physics appears to be offsetting the Y, and giving it to the X. But that causes these wonky shredded piece of shits with anomalous results. Some produce, sure, but when they do... people aren't noticing things - that I can tell. This last event ass banged everyone and they don't even know it. For example, because people saw snow out the window ( I realize you didn't down there but by and large) there's some tendency for satisfaction to suspend any deep analysis; the heaviest QPF avoided the snow columns of the soundings. Another example, there were vague at best jet intersections associated with the classic/textbook cyclone model; this is because the speed soaked progressive nature of the basal flow is keeping these waves from mechanically inducing them. It's really technical, but if the translation rate (time variable) exceeds the intergral of the Coriolis parameter, this is why the X coordinate is overwhelming the Y (above), the system have difficult curving the surface - Coriolis is the whole reason storms rotate. The speed of the flow is forcing the flow back open. Anyway, disrupted structures as an observation is becoming the almost dependable storm profile when it gets cold. CC is going to continue fucking people and it is not going away. Meanwhile, many will dismiss it and blame it on something else, enter any myriad of reasons for that misconception here [ ]. Whether we want to admit, understand and get it, ...regardless of anything, the new paradigm is here.

For reference, New York City area locations where daily records could be challenged or broken on December 5th:

With snow cover to the north, may help multiple record lows.

Yeah, add 10 days of climo to yesterday's event and it looks a lot different from a sensible wx standpoint...that 1C mattered a lot for a good chunk of the storm. The pattern looks a bit colder anyway even if you adjust for climo. Not a good pattern to try and get a phased nuke....but these northern stream impulses can sometimes produce pretty nicely for us if we can get one of them to line up.

It was for yesterday, too.

Pictures of the GRAF? Bring it on lol

Really a nice couple inches would be nice. How much did you get? Are you still in West Hartford?

I always love how juiced and aggressive the GRAF is

My scotch pine is feeling it this morning. Second round last night added another 2.5”. Ended at 6” total.

Hes one of the kids that posts pessimistic shit this way when it inevitably happens, he can claim victory and also be mentally prepared for the sadness that people feel when they dont get what they actually want. And if we happen to get snow they wont acknowledge the incorrect posts, just move on and enjoy their snow they wanted while being doubly excited because they were pessimistic. Freud would have a field day in this forum.

Better climo, though...

Yeah some of these events we had didn't show up well on guidance all that well until D7 or so. It's the type of flow that probably isn't easy on guidance with so much energy and then dealing with a stout -NAO block. Hopefully one of these can produce.

That jet is going to be absolutely cranking It's not an awful look either around mid-month...window may be small but there is certainly some chance Getting anything to phase in that will be difficult but you could feasibly have a shot to get some PV interaction and before you know it, you have a good signal for cyclogenesis in our hood.

And the NAM is weird cause the wave itself is a bit more stretched but the vorticity behind it is a bit more N/S oriented so probably be somewhat close (maybe a bit worse if gun to my head) to 6z

What blew my mind with the Euro was how it ignored the mid layer heater. But what also never happens is a deep low passing way south and east not closing off 7h 8h and allowing warmth to blow so far inland. Great call by Scooter. Tip of the Yankee cap

Ended with 8.5". Decent first event.

I did NOT make 4+ analysis posts for the show hole to be squarely over Charlottesville imma need that to change to some rando place like 50 miles east. That said, seems like positive trends so I’ll take a look at them later

With or without gum on it?

Hey buddy

I noted that right before the storm started....the Euro was really going to get the W on the track, but it was just awful with the thermals. The whole system was pretty weird though. If you had told me before the storm started that the only information you would give me is that I would spend almost the entire storm below freezing, I would have at minimum expected snow to be overproducing in a very large swath of SNE.....but instead it was actually fairly underwhelming. Having low pretty decently SE with good ageo northeryl drain but yet we were ripping 925mb from the south relentlessly to the point of overperofming on warmth at that level....didn't have that on my bingo card. Typically I'd expect that type of track to have the warm nose way up at 750mb or something.

At 33, getting stretched more than 6z. Less press over NE but over the SW is flatter.