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Lake front just hit

If we can get the western regions to amp up, these are our most western +ENSO events since 2000

The ridge west, trough east alignment seems to be almost stuck. Not literally, of course it moves, but it has been dominant lately so no need to think it cant continue next winter. It was dominant for almost a decade it seemed if we look back just 11-12 years or so. And of course it goes without saying that the blazing SW is doing the heavy lifting for ranking conus winter warmth. Chuck and I have discussed, I personally dont worry about "cold" when it comes to snow. Its more about storm tracks. You can absolutely apply that to the Great Lakes and New England. Further south, of course its different. We have now had 2 cold winters in a row. With an El Nino coming Id be very surprised to see a 3rd cold winter in a row locally. The last 2 winters here have been cold and snowcovered with powder which is my favorite, but not gonna lie, with the biggest storm this winter 6.2" and biggest last winter 4.6", a milder winter would likely send more dynamic winter storms into this area. Historically its a mix, but for the last 3 decades, milder winters have produced some real dynamic snowstorms.

I'm not arguing for a big winter next year...all I am trying to say is that nothing is set in stone yet. This is why I usually don't get into it this early. You end up defending a hypothetical position that you haven't even taken yet.

I did? Anyway, I'm not willing to delve in any further at this point.

March 2026 might be the most +NAO March on record since 1950. Look at how that goes with El Nino later in the year..

Just hit 60 here

56 after a low of 42.

Lets see how close to 80 i get today

23-24 was the only one since 2005? (I don't know, but I don't think any Winter since then beat 97-98 or 01-02). If I get a big ++NAO signal from N. Atlantic Summer SSTA's, I think warmest Winter on record could be in the cards.

02-03 had more -EPO and -WPO. You pointed out yesterday positive phases of these indexes has gone with basin-wide El Nino's, and especially east-based.

EL Nino plus blocking would be ideal for the east. We just had a second favorable winter in a row in many locations in the east. Maybe the tide is turning . We did get lucky last winter with the negative NAO and the cooperate pacific. I want to see the pacific continue to improve. We need a PDO flush.

Every other year is the warmest winter on record nationally...I don't see this is a novel concept.

I don't see what it matters if the mean pattern favors a west coast ridge and an east coast trough....that said, it doesn't need to be very cold to salvage a decent snowfall season.

Typical onset of El Nino conditions

Maybe the tide is turning .

Oh wow, sad to read this. The day of his passing he posted a lot on the forum. May he RIP.

Doesn't have to be west-based necessarily to have that type of outcome.....basin-wide is fair game. That year was also emerging from a persistent -PDO. I've already said I don't expect next winter to be that cold, regardless, but my point is that I don't think a +5F season is a foregone conclusion.

It should scare every winter enthusiast...

You've mentioned 02-03 a few times but that was a major west-based Nino. I don't think we're going to have that orientation this year, and the Pacific is still in a -ENSO state, left over from what has been that phase generally since 2016. The Mountain West hitting >+10F anomalies for a 4-5 month period this Winter honestly scares me about cold Winter prospects next year.

I don't anticipate a super el nino just based on what has happened in the past and where it looks like we're headed...just doesn't fit. My guess is a decent event that is not prohibitive to a good winter...a la 1957 or 2002. Again, just my hunch....I'm not saying a super event can't happen, but considering we just had a super event in 2015, and a very strong and very warm el nino in 2023 as we now begin to emerge from the ongoing Pacific cold phase, I just don't see it. I like 1957 because it is a good QBO fit and decent solar match (albeit closer to solar max) that followed up two Pacific cold phase El nino events. 2002 is a very good solar match and an okay QBO match that also occurred as we emerged from a persistent -PDO.

Since I’ve never really paid too much attention to forecasts of WWB and Kelvin waves and that sort of thing, my question is, how accurate are those modeled forecasts going out a week plus normally?

We have this debate every couple of years. I suspect Mike was being a bit sarcastic, but I let him speak to that. My hunch is, if we combined forums, the Philly posters would eventually disappear. This is a backyard sport. Personally, I have little interest what the weather is doing in NYC. I'm mainly interested in obs from our local PA, south Jersey and northern DE posters. It gives me an idea of what's on the way, be it severe weather, the changeover line or what not. I'd prefer to not have to waddle through hundreds of posts about the Mets pitching staff to find out how quickly the changeover line is progressing through the region. -My respectfully submitted opinion (but I'm just another nobody weenie).

There might be a tendency to exaggerate very favorable conditions, and immediate jump to Super Nino vs something Moderate or even Strong.. like I've previously posted, the March SOI has never been this high in a Moderate+ Nino later in the year. Now there's only 9 examples and I'll have to test it back before 1950, but things are less than ideal right now, although SSTAs are warming pretty fast. Just some random thoughts this morning. Nino 4 also has a steady long term uptrend since 1950, more uniform than other regions.. that Nino 4 is already +0.4 and WWBs happening in the west, may propel that to some warmer conditions this year.

Yes, here's a good example of cherry picking. Do you have any specific technical complaints? I'll be adding other stations; but, why would the results change?. The other stations all have much shorter record lengths. Plus the modern stations are all warming rapidly in complete agreement with the Coatesville and Phoenixville data.