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What are temps aloft as I’ve been steadily falling since 12 noon and now 47 with a dp of 23

Thanks Don. How have you been?

WAA sleet/graupel/snow junk missed me to the south. Tonight’s R/S line looks like it will stay to the north of Allentown. At least this is happening in November and not January when cold air will be more abundant.

Yikes. You took a spill?

Reinstall in Tol?

I'm with you. I think there will be a decent swath of accumulating snow overnight tonight. I just personally think the 12z HRRR was too "wet" into the cold/dry air and a little too far north with the axis. It also keeps measurable precipitation going further east into NYS and CT. That might be suspect based on other guidance drying things out quicker. The 18z is a little drier and maybe a hair south of 12z. I think it has been incrementally shifting towards model consensus. The 18z RRFS also looks a touch drier and more reasonable to me. The GFS and CMC have likely been too far south and late to correct. The best bet for accumulating snows looks to be in PA right now. But we've seen cases before where banding unexpectedly extended accumulating snows eastward as a shortwave decayed into the residual cold of a longwave trof. The radar will be interesting late tonight.

Can we actually get BN heights across the entire CONUS anymore?

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m temp anomalies vs prior run in E US Dec 1-7: slightly cooler NE US but still pretty mild overall/warmest week of Dec Dec 8-14: NE cooled slightly from slightly AN to NN but SE ~same Dec 15-21: slightly warmer SE (was NN); ~same NE Dec22-28: slightly warmer but still coldest week of Dec

Heavy sleet near Denver, Pa

It’s been ying and yang run to run. I mentioned yesterday I want consistency, but again it also points to after first week for more sustained stuff. Maybe we sneak something interior near 12/1 or so.

Last year the cold didn't come until the end of the month. I had my 1st frost and freeze on the 30th. Had a light freeze the other morning but still waiting on my 1st hard freeze.

That missing snowfall data pisses me off. I always forget what happened...it had to do with the switching from something to something but 1995-1996 was like 115.2" and I'm pretty sure 2002-20023 was over 80" or maybe 90" and I think is second highest on record for BDL..

93-94 great. 94-95 suck. 95-95 great. T N at I know.

This is a typical La Nina look actually. Dumps west then moves East or thats the idea. Still a lot to iron out though but Iike things heading into December.

maybe it was 03-04 and 04-05...or maybe it was like 02-03 good, 03-04 sucked, then 04-05 was great. Can't find my notebook. Guess I'll look online but the handling of the snowfall and tornado databases frustrates the hell out of me.

I've seen some comments downplaying the HRRR. 18z vsn nearly identical to the 12z. I think we have to think confluence zone enhancement-band. I see BGM NWS just issued an inch higher terrain. I wont say what will happen but I dont even think our NWS offices will know at 3AM tomorrow when final day products are issued, since very few ground truth reports at 2-3A. The radar should be telling. Maybe I'll be wrong but I doubt if the HRRR is going to miss by more than inch or at worst 2. It should be slippery as outlined in the mid morning post. Pretty good %H Vort advection toward morning in EPA with decent 8H FGEN and lift in sw flow aloft. A warm frontal wave. It's over before you can say 9AM.

And now the eps agrees also. Flip to cold in the mid to long range.

Yeah its becoming a thing now on the internet and social media. Throwing out 16-24" like candy is essentially saying it snowed 1"/hr for 24 hours straight and while it does happen sometimes, there should be people drowning in snow at those amounts. I mean 40" in 48 hours... I've measured that once here and if you get an honest 40" in 48 hours it is on a level that few can comprehend. It is almost paralyzing. It is not something that just gets tossed out there as a guess. Like cars should be completely gone in the parking lot at a 30-40" storm. And you are right, it is definitely the numbers that get people. Everyone knows it's the most snow, but the number of people who I see posting online that have hit some variety of Bolton Valley, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay this November... most are saying the amounts seem pretty similar. I'd give Jay about 30% more just based on upslope climo as it moves north. Just like the BV to Smuggs stretch usually sees about 30% more than Sugarbush/MRG. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Bolton was sporting some of the most either given their location and high base elevation like Jay's.

I’m not sure on that?

can see heights rising out west at the end as well as the Atlantic pattern becoming blockier

Don't know how to post pics on here from my phone. Tried last Tuesday with the snow we had.

Correction its graupel

If the MJO enters 8 at that amplitude it should be there for a while, and should crawl on through the left side into January.

Ehhhhhh I have sleet falling 44F

Nice, post some pics if you get some coverage!