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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Right....about 150W....that is what was in the MC previously. I have a question for you guys..name me all of the El Niño events with a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan like we have now....then, once you do that, do me a solid and eliminate the ones with ample MC contribution and let me know the ultimate list. I think the folks whacking it to subsurface erotica need to remember that absolutely nothing operates in a vacuum...not even the most intense El Niño in history. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We don't know how it's going to work out....maybe it won't end up mattering and the eastern convection will dominate for a 1997 replica, but I think ignoring alternative outcomes is silly. You can't just pretend the dual forcing isn't there on modeling. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2015 and especially 2023 had the warmth enhance by the MC convection and 1997 had one clean convective node the east. I don't feel like you are being entirely consistent in that you obsessed over the MC activity in previous seasons, but now you ignore that warm pool since it's in the central Pacific. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Literally no one said that......arguing for competing forces to emerge mid season and claiming something is "more important" are two different statements. It's not a matter of something else "trumping" the El Niño, but rather how other factors interact with it and the rest of the hemispheric landscape. -
Crazy day for temperature
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's because the El Niño forcing is the only game in town right now .....as the season goes along, it's going to get some competition from the west that 1998 didn't have once some of these gradients steepen. I never debated intervals of record warmth...but it's not going to be wall-to-wall. The first half will be very mild and that will not be negated...no way. -
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29/26. Heat kicked on.
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True facts. Had I not known better and only read some of these posts, I would expect to burst into flames, drown, and be blown to the 4 points of the compass the moment I walk out the door on a daily basis. Imagine my surprise when it snowed 20+ inches not once but twice in the same winter! Impossible.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We had 3 great [post-volcanic] seasons (1992-93, 1993-94, and 1995-96). Imagine how much worse it would have been without Pinatubo. -
Not far from me Anthony!! Hope you an your family had a good time. Did you go to casola farms?
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46F here now, after a high of 60F.
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I think we'll be ok
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2026-2027 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Temp down to 36 degrees already. Going to be a cold one tomorrow morning. -
Dew points are generally 33 - 35 degrees for many and there's a bit of wind. Frost seems quite possible, but the freeze might stay west of I-81 tonight.
