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To compare to the prior Nino, July was similarly strongly -PDO and it hit most neg ~Oct 1st. Then it rose to a more moderate -PDO:

Beautiful weather we're having. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but my area needs beneficial rain soon.

I tend to agree, to a certain point, that this December will not be like last December. BammWx thinks a warm December so litle snow. Time will tell.

This has to be confirmed but I think RDU just broke the record for wettest July in its history

Some wildfire smoke up there today from the PAC NW fires.

and why is that

Sept and October possibly both near to below average.

I didn’t get below 67 last night.

There's probably going to be an incredibly powerful sub tropical jet this season too. A byproduct of the WQBO is further enhancement to that jet. QBO and ENSO Effects on the Mean Meridional Circulation, Polar Vortex, Subtropical Westerly Jets, and Wave Patterns During Boreal Winter https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022JD036691

The Euro is a legit severe solution for Tuesday. The GFS screams "dying MCS moves through at 9AM and kills off the afternoon threat".

Pray for the West

I think the -PDO stays solidly negative until the early Fall when the pacific jet starts to climatologically strengthen for the season. At that point it will open the door for disruptions to it. The warming waters off the Western US does work against the -PDO but it’s obviously just one component of it.

Exciting times ahead.

Yeah, this sure is a -PDO. Fairly textbook looking actually in the North Pacific. Here's what makes that feature really interesting to me, especially in the face of this burgeoning super nino. Battle of heavyweights here. The interplay between these 2 should be fascinating. A deeply entrenched -PDO state vs potentially a record breaking el nino. When the PDO is out of phase with enso there is evidence it can act against it. Whether that is el nino or la nina. To the point of cancelling it out completely in the extratropics. Now, I am not sitting here thinking this event will be cancelled out by the PDO. That's not the point of this post. Nor do I think that will be the case. I do think there will be some sort of modulation though and think it will be interesting to watch how that goes and evolves. Additionally, could this be the event finally signaling a longer term change for the north pacific? I feel like that could be plausible given the magnitude and timing of it but who knows. Sometimes I see people dismissive of the PDO, however research suggests it's probably not a great idea to do that. Modulation of the Northern Winter Stratospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnection by the PDO https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/18/jcli-d-19-0087.1.xml

At this time last year it was -3, so not as extreme as recent years. It will be interesting to see if we break into positive territory by December.

Now at 2.75

Maybe, but the 30-year norms of 50 years ago were about 2F lower than the 1991-2020s.

Agreed ... but aren't they almost mutually exclusive? 50 years ago ( personal conjecture) this on-setting NINO and it's weird 'ominous' portends that seems almost metaphysically prescient ... whatever it is and all of it probably can't happen. Why? Because this has a non-linear force - not readily observable - coming from 'unrealized' climate change. An aspect that is quite plausibly constructively interfering. The oceans have absorbed 90% of the warming that "should have" been atmospherically kinetic and or stored in WV, since the Industrial Revolution. How much absorption can happen before something is forcibly given back..? Realization forcibly occurring, incrementally. Like what happen in the 2023. That global pan-systemic temperature burst that spring is give back. As an aside... maybe that synergy is sensible, like collectively in a subconscious awareness, which is why-for ( probably ) the prescient portends. It doesn't hurt that the models are actually jacking the historical this and that, either. But it's like watching a comeback in sports. The team may still be down 10 points with time a factor, but you know somehow some way they're winning that game. In this case tho, we're the losing side... It seems this NINO is catapulting off a background that is "elastically" under tension. It trying to restore to equilibrium at all times. That restorative force is in the upward ( climate change ) direction ... 2023, this NINO, they become like leaks in the damn, and that tension is squeezing through. Seriously though, I speculate that the this NINO is in a sort of synergistic/constructive feedback with the background state. A state that could not have been the case 50 years ago, because obviously the background was significantly enough different. Less donuts in the doughnut stuffing machine's cartridge that Homer Simpson experienced in Hell.

Low of 61. @Blizzard of 93 I’ll do the calculation Monday morning, have a busy weekend. Enjoy it y’all!

I think their trade deadline strategy hinges or should hinge on these next 3 series. Really need 6-3 or better in it to look like a contender. 0-1 so far.

I had a light shower here. Was planning to get out early and mow whatever crap is growing out there, but just enough wetness that I'll have to wait a bit.

Another Orioles special. Their fundamental issues aren't correctable. They are going to lose to the good teams, but there are plenty of mediocre to bad teams on the upcoming schedule too.

Wow! With the rain this morning, just surpassed the July average at GSO, total MTD 4.93"