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Leaf change is beginning to show up in earnest now. Driving back from Sylva this morning I noticed Fall colors along 74 coming up the mountain to the Parkway. Around the house, some trees are dumping now and even the Poplar trees are showing yellows and beginning to fall. Looks like a prolonged rainy stretch coming this Friday extending well into next week.

Thanks. I agree 100% with the above analysis as of Sept 13th MTD suggesting Sept of 2026 at GSO would (assuming the model projection is in the ballpark of reality of course) obliterate 2019’s 76.4F! Update: Sept 1-15 is at 80.0, which is consistent with the graph. But FYI regarding GSO’s warmest Septembers on record: 1921 at 78.2 and 1925 at 77.9 were warmer than 3rd place’s 2019 at 76.4. Even so: if I look at projections for these projections for the 2nd half of September and assuming they’re in the ballpark of reality, GSO would even be flirting with 1921’s 78.2! The projection I ran was 78.1, which would obliterate 2019’s 76.4. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

We should get a paid vac day for national apple dumpling day.

Made it to 63 but still haven’t hit 50s yet. Thought today we would

Not to mention the Japan tsunami and (not weather, but still) the earthquake felt up here that damaged the Washington Monument. That was one crazy stretch.

Decided not to replace my 20+ year old snowblower. Count on the deepest, densest snowpack we've ever experienced. Take it to the bank.

I think we all favor blocking lol. Too bad Mother Nature doesn’t care about our preferences

After having a central Gulf TD late on yesterday’s 12Z per the quoted post and then not on the 0Z, today’s 12Z UKMET at the identical time (18Z on 9/21) has a TD form albeit in the E Gulf rather than C Gulf and with it moving very slowly WNW just like yesterday’s run had: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.8N 84.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.09.2026 132 26.6N 84.0W 1008 21 1200UTC 22.09.2026 144 27.0N 84.7W 1008 20 0000UTC 23.09.2026 156 27.1N 84.7W 1008 25 1200UTC 23.09.2026 168 27.2N 85.4W 1006 31

100%. Strong ninos tend to run on the mild side but they also favor decent qpf makers and good storm tracks for our specific region. A good track can't do it by itself though so now we're drilled down into a level a detail that can only be wildly guessed at and not predicted until much further down the road. East based and basin wide ninos don't "eliminate" cold air in the east when it matters and there is no reason to assume warmth will completely overwhelm at this stage. I feel pretty confident that the AO will not be hostile and is more likely to be favorable than the opposite. December is important there. Even if it doesn't help during December, a solid -AO in December often translates into a -AO in Jan and/or Feb. NAO? Beats me. Fickle beast... lol I don't see anyone around here banging a big snow drum in the MA region. Cautiously optimistic until proven otherwise is a fair take imho. The only thing I feel pretty certain about is this winter will not be as cold and dry as last winter. Easy call there.

have we gotten through all the days yet?

they death ridge, we garden variety

You can feel the humidity creeping up again. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. 77F/DP 65F

Who is saying it will be? Most I see are saying it's likely to be warm and wet but at least we have a chance to score one huge snowstorm if we get lucky and time up one of the storms with cold...which is what all the east based strong nino's indicate is our fate.

I beleaf the leaves are going to be pretty solidly changed for my vacation next week, very hyped.

Mm we may have difference source but these on this CDC site beginning late 1970s thru recency ... there's a clear bias for between Xmas and mid January. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

I hope November is nice or October-like. Imo that’s our most garbage weather month. December is a close 2nd. Holidays are their only redeeming quality.

We'll have to see if anything develops. It's been humorous at times with the GFS and its fantasy canes even some other long-range guidance at times trying to develop stuff...almost like because "there has to be something". Even this I think is way overdone. What I think could happen though is there may be brief periods of small geo-spatial areas where conditions are favorable and if a wave hits these areas it might form into something but any life span is going to be very short-lived.

Fairly active in the Atlantic.

So high cirrus and mid 50s. Got it.

September 16 2006: A rapidly forming tornado hits Rogers just before 10pm, causing one fatality. 1992: New Market receives nearly a foot of rain. A bridge collapses during a flood in northern Le Sueur County. 1955: An F1 tornado touches down in Mille Lacs and Kanabec Counties, causing 1 fatality and $500,000 in damages. For Wednesday, September 16, 2026 1881 - Iowa's earliest measurable snow of record fell over western sections of the state. Four to six inches was reported between Stuart and Avoca. (The Weather Channel) 1928 - Hurricane San Felipe, a monster hurricane, which left 600 dead in Guadeloupe, and 300 dead in Puerto Rico, struck West Palm Beach FL causing enormous damage, and then headed for Lake Okeechobee. When the storm was over, the lake covered an area the size of the state of Delaware, and beneath its waters were 2000 victims. The only survivors were those who reached large hotels for safety, and a group of fifty people who got onto a raft to take their chances out in the middle of the lake. (David Ludlum) 1961 - Hurricane Esther was seeded by Navy planes in the inaugural experiment of what was to formally become Project STORMFURY next year. Esther was the first hurricane to be initially detected by satellite. On Sept. 10th, TIROS III imaged an area of disturbed weather a hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1984 - The remains of Tropical Storm Edourd began to produce torrential rains in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Port Isabel reported more than 21 inches. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Overnight rains soaked Arkansas, with 5.25 inches reported at Bismarck. In the town of Malvern, up to four feet of water was reported over several downtown streets, with water entering some homes and businesses. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Lufkin with 4.30 inches of rain in just three hours. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Missouri. A small tornado near Kirksville lifted a barn thirty feet into the air and then demolished it. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Hurricane Gilbert moved ashore into Mexico. The hurricane established an all-time record for the western hemisphere with a barometric reading of 26.13 inches. Winds approached 200 mph, with higher gusts. Gilbert devastated Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula. (The Weather Channel) Hurricane Gilbert made landfall 120 miles south of Brownsville TX during the early evening. Winds gusted to 61 mph at Brownsville, and reached 82 mph at Padre Island. Six foot tides eroded three to four feet off beaches along the Lower Texas Coast, leaving the waterline seventy-five feet farther inland. Rainfall totals ranged up to 8.71 inches at Lamar TX. Gilbert caused three million dollars damage along the Lower Texas Coast, but less than a million dollars damage along the Middle Texas Coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms, respresenting what remained of Hurricane Octave, brought locally heavy rains to California, impeding the drying process for raisins and other crops. Sacramento CA was soaked with 1.53 inches of rain in six hours. At Phoenix AZ, the afternoon high of 107 degrees marked a record seventy-six days with afternoon highs 105 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004 - Hurricane Ivan turned northward over cooler waters, and made landfall in southern Alabama as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane Ivan had a very unusual track almost making a huge circle. Observances: 17 Thu Citizenship Day 17 Thu National Pet Bird Day 17 Thu International Country Music Day 17 Thu Constitution Day 17 Thu Time's Up Day 17 Thu World Patient Safety Day 17 Thu International Patient Safety Day 17 Thu International Grenache Day 17 Thu National Arielle K. Sterrett Day 17 Thu National DEI Day 17 Thu National Monte Cristo Day 17 Thu National Pet Carbon Monoxide (CO) Safety Day 17 Thu National Professional House Cleaners Day 17 Thu National Table Shuffleboard Day 17 Thu Smithsonian Day 17 Thu National Apple Dumpling Day

Yeah what got me is that I read the forecast in the newspaper 5 days out. I got over 30 inches. Heavy snow compacted by insane winds. While shoveling, I saw a neighbor drop to the ground literally dead while he was operating a snowblower. I tried to render aid, but he had aortic dissection turns out so there was no hope. Obviously I didn't know that then but just had to keep trying. The ambulance took 30 minutes to get there. I will never forget that storm!

72 here as more humid air makes inroads...sun coming out too

I see the forecast next week is already clear as mud lol