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@CoastalWxmay need to be "cocked" a lot this winter to forget the torch and lack of snow! Pass the Mad Dog 2020!

And yet there are ppl who swear by him and he has them eating of his hands! UGH.

I give it another month before the meltdowns commence...

no surprise but nov looking like a toss

This never had a prayer of being easterly.

interesting to see such prolific totals on the east side of the track .. seems like it was tropical remnants interacting with a front? would be curious to learn more

SSW are tricky. Been hearing alot about it, especially since its so early in season. Not sure the benefits of it happening now if it did since its nov 2nd. Maybe higher elevations? Makes a difference. I am hopeful we can have one winter storm for us this winter.

Seems like we all agree it will be warm....just a matter of whether there will be a decent window or two.

TY In-Fa from Oct 27-31 maintained solid annular characteristics. It fit annular TC mode very well, meaning it remained basically steady-state structurally for an extended period ("truck tire") and stayed strong w/o much variance (no RI/RW) 115 to 130 kt during that time.

RIP Nam.

You can still hit up forest preserve trails for a walk or trek during the rain. I’ve done it a bunch during the winter/spring on those miserable <40 degree and rain/misty days. I’ve found the heavily forested areas even without leaves can shelter you from the raindrops a solid amount. Evergreens are your best friend year-round! If you ever need a spot to shake off some water on you or need a quick spot to dry off! Also nothing quite beats that lovely fresh rain smell you get inside of a forest preserve! Waterproof boots and a solid rain jacket are a must tho. Coupled with a thermos full of a hot liquid and you can enjoy yourself for an hour or two. After a while you just get used to the wetness and become a kid again out in nature. Preparation is key though. I walk dogs as a job throughout the year in all conditions rain snow or shine. I’ve learned over the years that eating a big meal beforehand really helps me stay warmer when I’m outside with the dogs.

From JTWC: JTWC has determined that an invest in the Bay of Bengal last week (90B) briefly became a tropical cyclone during 27-28 OCT but was not upgraded in real-time. To preserve the chronology of the historical record, we have posthumously renumbered this system to IO032026 (03B). You may have noticed that the next IO storm (04B), which is still active, appeared to skip a cyclone number due to this change.

I see some real signs that the STJ is about to get going soon.

Past peak now and with finally a breeze for the first time in weeks the leaves are showering down.

Meanwhile the gfs and euro are worlds apart on rainfall this week

So are we raining late week or are we not? The 12z GFS and Euro now both show most of the rain threat fading for Thursday while they try to get some coastal enhancement going on Friday.

What a day

This is what I mean by record warmth in November: 2020-11-06 71 46 58.5 8.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-07 75 47 61.0 10.9 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-08 76 46 61.0 11.2 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-09 75 47 61.0 11.6 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-10 76 48 62.0 12.9 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-11 71 61 66.0 17.2 0 1 1.48 0.0 0 2022-11-01 74 58 66.0 13.8 0 1 0.13 0.0 0 2022-11-02 71 51 61.0 9.1 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-03 72 45 58.5 7.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-04 73 47 60.0 8.8 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-05 78 56 67.0 16.2 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-06 77 67 72.0 21.5 0 7 T 0.0 0 2022-11-07 79 56 67.5 17.4 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-10 70 43 56.5 7.4 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-11 72 57 64.5 15.7 0 0 0.44 0.0 0 2022-11-12 71 60 65.5 17.1 0 1 0.07 0.0 0 2024-11-01 81 57 69.0 16.8 0 4 T 0.0 0 2024-11-05 76 50 63.0 12.2 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-06 80 61 70.5 20.0 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-07 78 58 68.0 17.9 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-08 72 49 60.5 10.7 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-11 74 54 64.0 15.2 1 0 0.15 0.0 0

Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (1950) NYC: 83 (1950) LGA: 83 (1950) JFK: 74 (1974) Lows: EWR: 29 (1976) NYC: 30 (1887) LGA: 29 (1965) JFK: 31 (1965) Historical: 1743: Benjamin Franklin's "eclipse hurricane" unlocked the key to storm movement. A rainstorm prevented Ben Franklin from viewing a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, but his brother in Boston saw it, though the rain began an hour later. 1810: An early season winter storm produced 7 inches of snow in New York City. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1861: The Federal Expedition, the largest fleet of American warships assembled up to that time, sailed from MD to attack Confederate installations in SC. Upon rounding the North Carolina Capes it ran into a hurricane that sank two of the ships. The fleet otherwise survived and five days later captured Port Royal Sound, SC. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1929: Boston, Massachusetts had a high minimum temperature of 63 °F the warmest low temperature for November. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1946: A tornado hit Washington in Hempstead County in Arkansas, killing one. 1946 - A heavy wet snow began to cover the Southern Rockies. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, and a 31 inch snow at Denver CO caused roofs to collapse. (David Ludlum) 1950: High pressure off the East Coast brought another day of record warmth from the Mid-Atlantic States into New England. November all-time state heat records established today: NC (90 degrees in Greenville and Oxford; NY (87 in Elmira); NH (84 in Windham); RI (82 in Greenville; and VT (81 in Bellows Falls). Many locations recorded record highs for the month of November including: Boston, MA: 83°, Hartford, CT: 83°, New York (LaGuardia Airport), NY: 83°-Tied, Providence, RI: 81°, Wilmington, DE: 81°, Atlantic City, NJ: 81°, Philadelphia, PA: 81°, Allentown, PA: 80°, Harrisburg, PA: 79° and others. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Boston, Massachusetts had a high temperature of 83 °F the warmest temperature for November. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1951: A large ridge of Canadian high pressure pushed a cold front into the southeast states southwest into northern Mexico bringing an early taste of winter. More than 50 record lows were set in the North, Central and southern Mid-West States. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961: A large ridge of high pressure brought record autumn heat from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Locations recording their all-time record high for November included: Augusta, GA: 90°, Columbia, SC: 90° and Atlanta, GA: 84°. Other record highs for the date included: Tampa, FL: 88°, Macon, GA: 88°, Savannah, GA: 88°, Charleston, SC: 87°, Charlotte, NC: 85°, Little Rock, AR: 83°, Louisville, KY: 81°, Cincinnati, OH: 80°, St. Louis, MO: 80°, Springfield, IL: 80°, Chicago, IL: 77°, Columbus, OH: 77° and others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961 - The temperature at Atlanta, GA, reached 84 degrees to establish a record for November. (The Weather Channel) 1966 - A storm brought 18 inches of snow to Celia KY in 24 hours. It tied the state 24 hour snowfall record first established at Bowling Green. (The Weather Channel) 1971: The maximum today was 85° in Washington, DC warmest ever so late in season. (Ref. Washington Weather Records) Also on this date Richmond, Virginia had its latest minimum of 70 °F or higher (latest warm night in the year) with a minimum temperature of only 70 °F. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) A ridge along the east coast with upper level high pressure off the Florida coast brought record heat from parts of southern New England to the south. Locations recording their highest November temperature included: Mobile, AL: 87°-Tied and Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 84°-Tied. Other locations reporting record highs for the date included: Washington, DC: 85°, Tupelo, MS: 85°, Richmond, VA: 84°-Tied, Lynchburg, VA: 82°, Roanoke, VA: 82°, -Tied, Asheville, NC: 80°, Bristol, TN: 80°-Tied, Greensboro, NC: 80°-Tied, Cape Hatteras, NC: 78°-Tied, Syracuse, NY: 76°, and New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 73° and others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1974: Southeast Kansas--Lightning struck and killed a man in a duck blind near Lowell about 10 a.m. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1976: A lady is shocked while talking on the phone when a lightning strike hits a telephone pole nearby. The strange thing is that it occurred during a snowstorm. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - A dozen cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 83 degrees at Paducah KY and 84 degrees at Memphis TN. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as southern Lower Michigan. Showers and thundershowers over southern Florida, associated with a tropical depression, produced 4.77 inches of rain at Tavernier, located in the Upper Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A very intense low pressure system brought heavy rain, snow, and high winds, to parts of the northeastern U.S. Portland ME established a record for November with 4.52 inches of rain in 24 hours, and winds along the coast of Maine gusted to 74 mph at Southwest Harbor. Heavy snow blanketed parts of northern Vermont and upstate New York, with 15 inches reported at Spruce Hill NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls in the Upper Great Lakes Region the first three days of the month buried Ironwood MI under 46 inches of snow, and produced 40 inches at Hurley WI. Arctic cold invaded the Southern Plains Region. Midland TX reported a record low of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: Strong low pressure of 988 millibars or 29.18 inches mercury north of Lake Superior combined with high pressure over southern Canada brought record winter-like cold from parts of the Rockies into the Plains. Kimball, NE matched their record earliest below zero with -2°. Other daily record lows included: Alamosa, CO: -21°, Great Falls, MT: -16°, Casper, WY: -14°, Helena, MT: -13°, Lander, WY: -12°, Pueblo, CO: -10°, Cheyenne, WY: -7°, Scottsbluff, NE: -4°, Billings, MT: -2°, Sheridan, WY: -2°-Tied, Valentine, NE: -2°, North Platte, NE: 1°, Missoula, MT: 0°, Grand Island, NE: 4°, Dodge City, KS: 4°, Norfolk, NE: 5°, Concordia, KS: 8°, Lincoln, NE: 9°, Omaha, NE: 9°, Amarillo, TX: 10°, Kansas City, MO: 12°, Topeka, KS: 14°-Tied, Wichita, KS: 14°-Tied, Oklahoma City, OK: 19°, Lubbock, TX: 19°-Tied, Abilene, TX: 25°, Dallas (DFW), TX: 28° and Houston, TX: 34°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1992: Another infamous November Great Lakes Storm brought windy conditions to Minnesota's Lake Superior shoreline. 70 mph winds caused waves to crash over 130-foot walls along the shore. 2000: Hilo, Hawaii on November 1st and 2nd : Heavy and persistent rains across the eastern half (windward side) of the "Big Island" of Hawaii drop 27.24 inches of rain at the Hilo Airport in a 24-hour period, breaking the previous 24-hour rainfall record. The previous record was 22.30 inches set on February 19-20, 1979. (Ref. WxDoctor) 37 inches of rain fell at Kapapala Ranch on the big island of Hawaii. 22.25 inches of it occurred in just 6 hours. This just missed breaking the all-time 24-hour rainfall record for the state of 38 inches at Kilauea Sugar Plantation on Kauai in January 1956. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

I went to Alaska this year. Absolutely incredible.

The 30 hPa QBO per ATMO Hub dropped from +17.6 in Sept to +14.0 in Oct. But I advise weenies to not take that small drop and interpret that to mean that a -QBO is going to arrive by Feb (though I expect some x weenies to do just that….be prepared ). All it is doing is oscillating within the solidly positive region (the image below shows this well). Related to that, 20 hPa and 15 hPa are still maintaining their strong status with +17.5 to +17.6. Also, the level that Paul Roundy referred to a few days ago, 70 hPa, as expected rose sharply from +2.6 to +7.0. The last 29 +cycles at 30 hPa have lasted 10 months++ and have averaged ~13 months going back to 1960. The current one started in May. Feb ‘27 would be the 10th month and May ‘27 the 13th month. Thus, I maintain my prediction that there will be a +QBO at 30 hPa through at least Feb with Feb likely lower than the current +14 but likely still at +5+ and possibly as high as ~+10. My best guess as to when it goes to a -QBO is still around May. Thus, 2015-6, 1982-3, and 1957-8 remain the top +QBO/strong+ Nino analogs ignoring where it will be based (east). If the E basedness is then incorporated, 1982-3 easily becomes the best overall analog. This image (just updated for Oct) better illustrates the current QBO status at all levels. As one can clearly see, we’re in the heart of a solid +QBO at 30 hPa that won’t end per history til at the very least 3 months after we see it first dropping to <0 at 10 hPa. The avg lag of going to -QBO from the 10 hPa level to the 30 hPa level is actually 7 months: @snowman19