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Yes. If anything, the sfc map is east of 6z

Yea these small ticks back and forth at this lead time does not breed confidence we can trend it far enough NW next 3 days for a regional hit.

Not going to bode well this run.

AIGFS still a no

Hoist those blizzard watches!

Even if we didn’t get a 6 hour dry slot or pingers whatever it was. We would’ve still ended up with 12-16” area wide. We don’t have a second moisture source.

What a mess with all of these surface lows.

it means were screwed either way somehow

From BAM

Its about to same. Hair flatter in front

its east but more north at that time frame lol...maybe it wont dig so far south?

I remember when I first started tracking these things 84hrs was just getting into "what the **** are we dealing with range" not "ass hair ticks" range. Oh how times have changed, and yet I'd love to still be surprised Jan '00 style.

Wilmington seems to be on the edge on a good amount of not much at all…thoughts?

I’ll take an inch out of this thing… .

Based on analogs this would make sense. But be careful, AI is going more off of historical outcomes than necessarily physics. You need both and I'm not sure AI is quite there yet. Could be right... But caution is needed. AI is not proven reliable. Granted, what model is at this point.

Regular GFS closes it off in Illinois at hr 66. Looks to be fairly similar if not slightly east of AI. But still a great look

GFS is closing off at 500 early as well. Not sure what that means though.

Now its an asshair east but more mature who knows

AI GFS a tick east

More confluence this run

Yes the cape homie. Hallelujahz…

Not much change on the GFS through 06z Saturday.

Unfortunately, Every model has it.

Kind of sucks that the airports probably won’t capitalize on the snow cover and much below normals temps to hit subzero.

That is a ton of convection chasing on the 12z GFS through 72 oh my