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It’s been 17 days since the last measurable rain here. The number of 2+ week rainless stretches dating back to last year insane, I wish I tracked that

Fwiw, NWS' climo Prelims have +2 to +5 at their 4 representative sites for SNE thru the first 10 days of June ORH/BOS are absurd and need to be changed, since climate affects POPULATIONS I suppose the Logan one has a sciency usefulness for how the coupling marine environments and all that jazz... but otherwise? no. Using that for "Boston" is just a thorn that is generations overdue to be pulled out. Doesn't matter what it takes or what hardship is perceived, if I were a fascist god, I would tell them to do so immediately or suffer the wrath of discontent that makes president Dump look like like the bed of daisies he's about start nourishing ( ...actually, they'd probably vomit, wilt and die ) ORH is a little less egregious. There are neighborhoods scatter around the AP up there on the hill, but it's consummately geo-physically always going to be 6 to 8 F cooler than the swelter where there's many orders of magnitude more people actually leaving below that elevation to fairly use that as climate for jack shit, really.

0.40" of rain yesterday. Finally got a stm passing thru. Nice morning with more showers slated for the aftrn. As the Hudson LP develops, it's going to feel more like Spring for week than early summer. 60's/40's in the trough.

Got bullseyed for just under an inch of rain yesterday. Picked up .4 with the morning round and .55 with the evening storms.

Pretty “meh” feeling over this way. Lake Michigan and an overturned atmosphere (downstream) along with debris clouds vs an unusually strong June system. Lots of bust potential here. If things hold out or redevelop over this side of the pond then could be a big evening but timing is getting later and later and models looking messier/disorganized. I feel pretty confident in the Chicago area for some heavy weather after 7-8PM. 12z HRRR looks ugly.

WB 6Z RRFS (been doing well with precip. Totals ). Squall line east of mountains around 7pm.

I wonder if data population schemes are more problematic in summer than winter. Maybe a known thing. Tracing that 500 mb vort paneling backward ...it seems the Euro/GFS are both getting an awful lot of momentum arriving out of the Pacific over the western continent around D5/6, then racing it into a bit of non-linear constructive interference triggering a shallow wave break and bombogenesis - originating along the lofty 570 mb height contour is a head scratcher. I guess it's not impossible... I mean, the models have to at least be physically possible otherwise they have 0 meaning.

.43 yesterday

Same weeks and weeks of rains... noone has harder rain than Templeton

It’s official. NOAA has declared an El Niño

All I know is after this weekend deep summer is canceled UFN.

77 instead of 72. Big effing deal.

always a bit of question whether these mcs cranking at a diurnally unfavorable time get over the hump and go long track, nice to see them going bullish

Major damage late last night/early this morning in the far north end of Springfield, IL. Especially near the fairgrounds. The Animal Protective League (local animal shelter) roof in some of their buildings were destroyed. Making those buildings a total loss. Also reports of power flashes near the State Fairgrounds. Lot of power outages stretching from the far north end of Springfield all the way to at least Decatur. And we weren't under last night's tornado watch (for Peoria/Galesburg/Bloomington areas) down here, although I'm thinking the actual watch box clipped the far north end of Sangamon County, plus much of Macon as well. Pre-2006, that would have been enough to put Sangamon and Macon counties in the watch. Stinkin' Lincoln (ILX) strikes again. https://www.wandtv.com/news/illinois/thousands-lose-power-during-overnight-severe-weather/article_2ef40d58-ec90-447e-962c-d2371b9a714d.html

Funny how the cig2 and highest risk just stops a few miles from the lake. SPC should know south of the metro into NWI is the QLCS tornado hotspot lol

Are the Northern areas safe for outdoor activities in the evening on Friday based on the current CAM consensus?

Finally came out on 1300z SPC OTLK

Look at this pig ... 984 mb low near BUFF, yet ... immersed in only 564 dm thickness, having almost no hydrostratic gradients surrounding all quads, either In summer. This is D7 Euro so... meh, no responsibility to accuracy is really there - yet - but that's an example of too much amplitude ( or likely to be...) on summer mid range charts. I like the triple point secondary low forming at the head of the 576 - that combination of metrics you don't typically see, huh

You are correct. No one had a WAN first half . Same will happen second half and Julorch . Both will warm as we get closer

Oh, yeah.... I posted their disco excerpt ... "...especially away from the coastal plain. Heat Advisories may be expanded further east; however, a backdoor cold front is expected to drop into eastern MA sometime on Friday" But in their defense... they did mention the advisories might extend east - I don't care to be involved with the petty pot shot at NWS thing... just sayn'

? I think there's a pattern relative warm bias that is the CC expression that is sort of unnoticed - or maybe ...everyone knows it but chooses to ignore. I dunno. But what I mean by pattern relative warm bias is that the pattern essences may actually be verifying better than either the temperatures that result, as well as what folk tend to associate what those patterns look like the temps should be. I don't mean that necessarily wrt this last month's behavior ( necessarily...), but I always go ahead and assume two aspects: these 540 dm festering multi contoured hornet stings on the summer D9-13 charts we see over James Bay are not going to do that, and, whatever comes of it...we'll be 2-7F above scalar predictions anyway

Did they actually term it a backdoor? It always looked like an outflow assisted seabreeze to me on the mesos from some convection along the coast. Looks like we ended up with a little more ridging though because I remember that 2m theta-e gradient being near the NH/ME border and now it’s up into central ME for this evening.