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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup....NW to se above our latitude...usually not a recipe for taking the over on snowfall...said that all along, regardless of what guidance implied.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last storm.
  4. SnowGoose69
    I think this will be weak-moderate. The CFs/Euro have been too strong on forecasting ENSO events. I tend to go more with the ENSO model average...right now they barely have this even making it to 1.0....regardless mostly El Nino summers as you say are pretty cool here in the east.
  5. Typhoon Tip
    NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too
  6. ineedsnow
    this is not what you want to see
  7. DavisStraight
    Just stay near shore and avoid the middle.
  8. ORH_wxman
    I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF.
  9. CoastalWx
    Euro AI way south. This is toast.
  10. The 4 Seasons
    The CMC Para last night was pretty wild lmao.
  11. weatherwiz
    have to wonder if the HRRR is a bit overdone regarding the drier air. Should continue to see deeper llvl moisture advecting in from the wsw through the afternoon
  12. Damage In Tolland
    Can you think of a time it’s been correct all winter?
  13. CoastalWx
    Was just looking at that. Doesn’t seem like a scenario for low level dryness with SSE flow, but we’ll see.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes it seem pretty perilous for those dog lovers that pinned heavier hopes to the mesos.
  15. Cold Miser
    TMI
  16. ORH_wxman
    Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance.
  17. HoarfrostHubb
    Yeah... really sliced the output
  18. MickeyTim6533
    Euro AI wayyyyy south
  19. HoarfrostHubb
    Hoping for a Canadian miracle here.
  20. Brian5671
    That's how you know it's toast
  21. ineedsnow
    RAP also very meh
  22. WinterWolf
    Oh I’m sure you’re right.
  23. HoarfrostHubb
    Such a stable model
  24. A-L-E-K
    Too early for me
  25. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Maybe they were on to something.... maybe we were too quick to judge. We might just have a threat after all.
  26. Snowedin
    It’s all over. Shut em down, get them shorties out of the attic and let’s start tanning those beautiful napes baby!
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