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  2. D-Train started following 3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Day 2 MOD Risk)
  3. mnchaserguy
    Well that was a swing and a miss for MSP. Idk what it’ll take to get a storm to live up to the hype around here. .
  4. King James
    Happy to have nothing to do with this one on Selection Sunday March 15th is for 65 degrees and day drinking. Hard pass on any snow.
  5. SnoSki14
    Very active Monday likely. If we get higher dews/temps and more sun than forecast then wind/tornado threat goes way up
  6. Damage In Tolland
    Hoping for 60+, but probably will end up 50-55mph here and 60-70 out East
  7. snowfan
  8. Kmlwx
    Continuing discussion and eventually observations/nowcast posts for the Monday severe weather event potential can go here. @WxUSAF or other mods please pin this thread if you get the chance. 15% TOR and 60% WIND are extremely rare in these parts. While I am not downplaying anything - I do think the appearance of 60% wind has a lot to do with the new SPC outlook methodology. Nonetheless, an active weather day tomorrow seems on tap. Usual failure modes still exist (stabilizing cloud cover or early day showers) The shear environment is pretty insane.
  9. H2Otown_WX
    Ditty finally gets his siggy damaging wind event?
  10. snowman19
    Thankfully normal highs are well in the 50’s in the NYC metro area now that we’re in spring, so those negative departures are not actually cold
  11. Burghblizz
    0Z NAM with a mini-Namming, showing 6”+ with the frontal passage of the big Midwest storm Monday afternoon. As you would expect, that backed off a little this morning Will still be interesting to see if that’s just a little white rain, or if there can be a period of accumulating snow.
  12. dendrite
    NAM is still pretty wild with that LLJ…pushing 100kt at 925. It’s a little inverted on soundings, but we could be pushing 60/58 type air over the interior. Other models are a little more tame so the NAM is probably overdone. It’ll be interesting to see how much we can mix down. Getting those dews near 60° in March wouldn’t normally worry you about being inverted.
  13. A-L-E-K
    It's over for the co river Been over for a long time but this starts the death spiral
  14. Today
  15. A-L-E-K
    Ready for 1.5 to 2 inches (of rain) and an exciting dab
  16. A-L-E-K
    Imagine you booked an extremely expensive Hawaiian vaca and this is your weather
  17. Kmlwx
    I'll get a separate thread started in a bit!
  18. madwx
    Temp right below freezing here at 31.5 Convective shower just moved through and woke me up with a nice burst of sleet
  19. ILSNOW
    Better Image
  20. bkviking
    4 of those winters were colder than normal in the northeast (88-89 the exception I believe) . Western ridge patterns?
  21. WinstonSalemArlington
    Unfortunately, I stole it from someone who didn’t
  22. Yardstickgozinya
    Spc's new severe wind and tornado probability outlook.
  23. John1122
    The 03Z RAP gives 2-4 inches from the western Plateau to the Mountains. Valley areas included, even down into NE Alabama and NW Georgia.
  24. Yardstickgozinya
    New update from the Spc . A zone of moderate risk has been added. Its definitely not looking good fellas, and I don't know that things will de escalate, at least on paper so let's hope for a thermodynamic failure at the lowest levels because the crazy, kinematics seem pretty eminent. Full discussion is in the link below the map. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
  25. John1122
    That NAM run.
  26. andyhb
    Getting a lot of 2/24/2016 vibes from both the outlook and the model progs/soundings for Monday, which of course was a widespread severe outbreak for the region, including some strong tornadoes (e.g. Appomattox VA EF3).
  27. Nomz
    They can go 15 cig 1 without moderate so I assume that was a pretty easy decision. Also if they were go moderate for wind anyways it doesn’t really matter going 10 or 15% for tornadoes.
  28. Rhino16
    I was expecting like a 10, but I wasn’t sure how they would incorporate the qlcs part of the tor risk into the percentages
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