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I'd say!

Not riding this?

So out in CT?

One thing that’s really cool with the AguaceroWx app is it allows you to customize a Skew T. So when it generates a Skew T, you can actually change the temperature, DP, wind, shear, etc…. To see how that changes the parameters. For example if the SBCAPE is 1500 joules at 70 degrees, you can change the temperature to 75 degrees to see how that changes the CAPE. Pretty cool. .

That’s a really bizarre sfc temp map for early March

Im thinking ORH hills south of rt2 might be the best bet until they flip to sleet/snow

Don't forget that ISP adds up 6-hour-snowfalls. That matters the most in prolonged major events and sometimes not at all in smaller events.

Yeah, that's not verifying.

It's a bit of a misconception that the PNA corresponds to a western US ridge/trough, the index actually corresponds to a much broader area per the CPC: PNA = Z*(15°N-25°N,180-140°W)-Z*(40°N-50°N,180-140°W) +Z*(45°N-60°N,125°W-105°W)-Z*(25°N-35°N,90°W-70°W) So in the case of December, the -PNA was mostly the result of strong troughing over western Canada, which in turn torched the Southwest US. Good reminder that the number isn't the be all, end all, you have to look at the bigger picture.

HIE 50…plymouth 49

Yes it does, like i said it wasn't close to the CMC but it has it

Extended looks good IMO. Models are still highly erratic though, so will be expecting many wild run-to-run swings.

Is there even any ice threat anymore ? Hope it’s not totally over

Btw who remembers this storm. Happened in mid March

I am all in. Let's go...

Before we deal with winter weather again possibly we have some severe weather to deal with.

Likewise, 37/31 light east wind down 2 each in last hour.

Robots seem to have a warm lean in my opinion. Early next week should be a good test to the theory(maybe they score one).

It hasn’t been a year with much of that…everything has been in close..mostly a week or under.

Awesome, I’m sure that translates to copious amounts of snow on the models and ensembles. Let me go check!

100 years ago? to the day? EDIT - yes says the all time record was 1926. 2025 was 5th coldest all time. Many stations reported all time record lows, including LGA and Sikorsky airport in CT. JFK tied it's all time record.

My only beef with March and April variability is that my sinuses can’t take the delayed, slow drag through pollen season. If it were warm this next week and into the extended range, we’d rip the bandaid off.

Jeez, you have been warm for hours, my Davis hit 43F/ now showing 37F, light wind.