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Good trends across guidance for the 15-16th period. Storm signal is there

16-17 and 22-23 were my favored analogs at the beginning of the season. I always felt that December was going to be on the cooler side (this verified), but January and February were going to be warmer (looks like that's what's happening). [As I'm typing this, I'm using my fan for the first time since November. It's getting warm already!]

Most are focused on snow understandably, but the pattern is pretty good for a potential legit arctic cold blast....so if we're looking for sub-zero temps, this is the type of pattern you want. Ensembles are focusing near MLK weekend and maybe just after.....note the absolutely zonked WPO ridge and a bit of -AO retrograding from Scandi/Ural ridging....thats going to shove pure Siberian arctic into central and SE Canada.

Amen brother!!!

Once it became clear the models whiffed on that stout west based -NAO setting up for the first week of Jan the thaw was all but a certainty and we would have a quiet period. As you said, we are now getting through the warm-up and starting to see hints into next week we may have a discrete threat to track soon.

I just kind of want the weekend to get here. This period is very low probability, but just enough of a probability to keep us a bit into it. We'll either put this to rest this weekend or see a theme where we are inching towards something.

With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.

Buck shot probably related to short wave timing issues, but that doesn’t make me want to vomit for sure.

Thanks for your expert analysis. It is greatly appreciated .

The snow is great but more importantly how warm is February looking?

Same.with ggem

So when it ultimately phases in and ruins our chance at a good event....we can blame the "new regime", even though the "new regime" is hostile to phasing. I can already see the posts now.

How Low can you go

The motherload of cold keep showing up towards the end of the month. Will be interesting to see where it goes.

Which one is Tyler Loop?.

Was just going to mention that...how the pattern is structured is about as important than anything and I think stuff like this goes overlooked. People see ridge in the west and trough in the east and assume that is good but that is not necessarily the case.

And presumably that’s all basically from the 15-17th?

Euro is FRIGID in the long range too.

It's the same roll over we saw last year, and previous years. It blows. And I bet @Typhoon Tiphas theory on why we are seeing it....

52 here with full sun-snowpack going bye bye

Realistically, good luck. I'm focused beyond that for anything major (sub KU).

Slow and steady increase over the next 6 days and we will be up over 6” on the mean and no time haha

That is one sustained cold look!

Agree Favorable pattern coming up. High chance of a coastal with the favorable PNA.