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No, I agree with your overall sentiment, I'm just one of the few who wants it to snow whenever it can no matter how long it lasts. Obviously, I prefer 6" or more that stays on the ground for a few weeks, at least, but desperate times......we'll probably overperform on the Thursday night/Friday morning clipper solely because it will all melt a few hours later. That has happened twice to me this winter. Melting snow is truly one of the most depressing things for me. Everyone goes on about SAD in the winter meanwhile I have SAD from April through November.

Couple cutters then this one, for delmarva long range forecast has been advertising 40s through 18th with rain 12-17.

The thermal profile of the storm is fine...the track is just a slight bit inside what we want...adjust track of the secondary 50 miles SE and its a huge snowstorm 95 NW. I could waste my time digging into exactly why the track is slightly inside perfect but I am not going to because we are going to see way more error adjustment than 50 miles at this range...the whole thing is going to change...timing will adjust some, the thermals could get colder and then this track could work...the track could shift 100 miles either way...and those would be considered extremely minor errors and a huge win if thats all this adjusts from 200 hours out!

Sitting in a decent thunderstorm just north of Burnsville currently. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Very little wind up here. Glad we here.

I'm so confused?? Last time I checked in we were getting no meaningful snow or precipitation until April? Isn't that what those 384 HR OP runs were showing???

31 but feels colder.

It's one for the books down here. I'm still at basically 100% coverage. Many side roads are still a packed glacier. Took my dog up smith mtn fire road yesterday and someone had a snowmobile up there within the last couple days lol. 100% coverage for 12 consecutive days has to be a record or close to a record in these parts. My climo kinda sucks (12"+/-) but I'm at 13"+ with 4 legitimate accum events. This winter gets a minimum grade of A- from me. If PD3 pans out or any other decent accum event it would be an A+ based on how I look at this stuff.

Yup definitely do - I’ll hit them up. There’s an excellent hardware store down near Etters that is amazing and I tend to forget they sell everything .

Feb Nina -PNA is serviceable here. Averages around 50% of normal (10”). Would say that weak-warm +ENSO Feb performs the best here, however. Such as in 2020, 2019, 2015, 2007.

Seasons pattern ftw

^ Based on that, southern Wake County (and a few other bordering counties) is experiencing the longest 6+" snow drought of anywhere in the state save that sliver of brown in the SE corner of the state.

The biggest challenge for a big NC snowstorm on Val. Day is going to be the progged -PNA by the model consensus (opposite of what the last storm had) as only 10% of the 6”+ storms since 1950 that occurred at RDU and/or GSO were when the PNA was sub -0.5: Sub -0.5 PNA for 6”+ snowstorms RDU/GSO -0.8 1/22-24/1954 -0.8 3/2-3/1960 -1.1 2/12-13/2014 -0.7 1/6-7/2017 In contrast, there have been 4 times as many (16) that occurred with a PNA of +0.5+. (This analysis has nothing to do with major icestorms, which I’m assuming on average have had better results than big snows when there’s a -PNA.)

Nope

12z suite gonna make us track a system from 10 days out?! Just 40 more runs to go! LOL

Right. And I'm sure Joe wouldn't be shocked if we reel a storm in either after all in a week or two, since he never really recanted his prior optimism in favor of remaining aloof. My point is that the second issues like sun angle and shit become a problem, I'd rather just save our year-to-year pretend climo snowfall luck for next season. If we miraculously manage to mitigate whatever warmup is locked in and we reel in a monster 10-14 days from now, great. Too bad we couldn't get it in December. Normally I'd be here excited for the DABs we've got coming but again, it's completely futile because we're completely resetting next week it seems. I understand this is a personal banter take but

Amazing what a little wind can do to change the tenor of the outdoor feel... Almost the same temp as yesterday right now, but with a steady 12 mph wind, gusting to 25 mph... The walk around the neighborhood was nowhere near as comfortable as it was yesterday!

Another pleasant sunny day. High 29°

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 42m Models are all over the place on late next week, something I have issued a big storm watch for the NE on Weatherbell based on studying pattern analogs and concluding a blend of 3/29/84,12/10/92,02/09/69 and 02/13/ work best. So the surface map for that gave me this for day 11, New euro went to it. So, like the storm a couple of weeks ago, where using 3 analogs gave a great solution a week out ( not perfect, but dang close), I started looking at this 5 days ago. The question then becomes, DO I HAVE THE RIGHT ANALOGS? But that means I am in charge of the idea, not the models ping ponging me. So you put out the idea and then wait and see if modeling comes to it. But it's not based on the models, it's based on pattern recognition and then doing the work to go back through all those maps and try to get the right package. This is how they did it in the old days, when 4 runs a day of computer models did not force a ping pong match among meteorologists. SO I RELY ON MY SKILL, NOT THE MODEL IN SETTING THIS UP! If you just look at models until a few days before you can get whip sawed, or you simply get on TV and say the models says this or that, and all you are is instead of a forecaster is a model spokesperson. The risk? That you do all this work and are wrong, and it's happened to me many times. But I would rather work and risk than outsource what God gave me. And besides, Bocelli is right in Un Nuovo Giorno: Solo rischiando tu vivrai. Only by risking do you live

Wat https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/2019119800098963674 https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/2019119940767556049

Long way out there, but it seems like models are hinting at two potential storm chances coming up: 2/11 and 2/15. Depending on how strong the first wave gets, it could dampen the flow and cause 2/15 to stay suppressed (ala 12z Euro AIFS). Everything will also depend on how strong the confluence holds across New England/southern Canada. Just first look seems like a SWFE would be favored with thump to ice/rain. Expect lots of changes until then

Winds really cranked this afternoon here with a biting feel out there . 25.5

They do realize this is Wake County right?

lol. Just under 2 weeks to go. Lock it in.

Oh, no.... That's the run we chase for 10 days only to never find again.