All Activity

I think it's also possible to get too extreme in the other direction as far CC goes, and this isn't a slight at John..as I discussed last spring, I was actually guilty of that last winter and tarnished what was an otherwise absolutely exemplary seasonal effort. It's crucial to find and maintain that balance between the synthesis of lessons learned to inform future efforts, while also appreciating that each individual season as important differences. I'm still trying to find my proverbial footing in that regard.

Spc has day 1 outlook a marginal risk out for south of i40 for west middle and east tn also for the majorityish of the Deep South for 5 percent hail in southwest tn nw Alabama north Mississippi and also 5 percent wind https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html .

No precipitation that was measurable this week. Still at 1" MTD for August. Drought remains at D1

I was surprised yesterday evening when my P&C forecast had 1-2 inches for tonight! Now it's a more typical quarter to half inch. Sun is coming out and it's a muggy 83/76. Hoping for a flush hit later but won't be surprised if it's NE Maryland pummeled again

Unless the sun comes out and bakes this afternoon I don't see it.

If you are feeling you have gotten unlucky in over the last few weeks with daily storms missing your location, just know that the footprint of these storms has been relatively small and most areas have been drier than normal across the area with a few lucky winners

WPC discussion heavy rainfall potential: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html

From OKX AFD: While still low confidence, given high shear and little instability, severe thunderstorms for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island can not be completely ruled out. This would be mainly an isolated damaging wind gust threat, but given decent low level curvature in model soundings an isolated tornado is also possible.

It already feels like we’re heading that direction on a very small scale. The weak La Nina’s we had the last 2 years have exhibited extended Modoki-like patterns at least prior to February.

Yep, been in the high 90s and low 100s and unlike our usual 100s, it actually features higher dew points than usual. I've seen low to mid 80s on a lot of the local weather stations. 120+ heat indices. Insane. It's ungodly hot.

Shhh then everyone will know the secret that lakeside = best climo even with early summer pneumonia fronts

LWX will do an 18z SPEC sounding per SPC request - in updated morning AFD

I think you need to look beyond the CC aspect, too, though....most guidance will be too cold...got it. But if it's right with the orientation of those heights into our area, then we'd have some chances....I get the exaggerated SE CONUS trough, etc....but that isn't entirely prohibitive, TBH, it could even be beneficial for us relative the mid atl as long as the gradient doesn't get overly steep. The STJ with these things can sometimes get buried.

Yet our 70+ days in January are mostly in niñas.

Sod is immediate satisfaction, but if the rest of the yard needs work, and you’re already committed to aerating and seeding the existing lawn, I’d go the seed route. Totally bare areas that have been covered tend to respond well to seeding.

Congrats to my great, great, great, great, great grandkids on perpetual El Nino.

I think there’s some confusion from a few. No one was saying no rain because of wagons south. This has always looked like scattered showers to the Pike area. But the heavy rains have always been wagons south . Like S coast to NYC south

12k nam who cares

Looks like August is currently tracking near the higher end of the range close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast from the 1st. https://celsius.earth/predict Aug 2026 MEDIAN 1.50 90% RANGE 1.34-1.66 SEAS5 DIRECT 1.66

DCA Christmas day temps during past strong Nino events 1972.. 48hi 42lo 1982.. 70hi 48lo 1997.. 49hi 40lo 2015.. 69hi 57lo 2023.. 61hi 40lo Seems like there's unfortunately much greater odds of our region flirting with 60F+ temps than getting close to freezing (DCA climo for the day is 47hi 33lo)

Decent call. A little slow in bringing the front into MN, but otherwise about right.

August 20 1904: Both downtown Minneapolis and St. Paul are hit by tornadoes, producing the highest official wind ever recorded in Minnesota over one minute (110 mph in St. Paul). For Thursday, August 20, 2026 1886 - The 1886 Indianola Hurricane destroyed the town of Indianola, Texas and as such had a significant impact on the history and economic development of Texas. The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the essential Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane led to the rise of Houston as a major port. It was the fifth hurricane of the 1886 Atlantic hurricane season and one of the most intense hurricanes ever to hit the United States. 1910 - The big blow up of forest fires finally came to an end in Idaho. A record dry August fueled 1736 fires which burned three million acres destroying six billion board feet of timber. The fires claimed the lives of 85 persons, 78 of which were fire fighters, and consumed the entire town of Wallace. The smoke spread a third of the way around the world producing some dark days in the U.S. and Canada. The forest fires prompted federal fire protection laws. (David Ludlum) (Note: WOW!) 1928 - A tornado estimated at F4 intensity initially touched down in Winnebago County, Iowa, moved to Freeborn County, Minnesota, and hit the south side of Austin, MN. Five of the six deaths were in Austin with 60 injuries. 1987 - Half a dozen cities in the Central Plains Region reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pueblo CO with a reading of 102 degrees, and Goodland KS with a high of 104 degrees. Hill City KS reached 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sheridan, WY, reported a record hot temperature reading of 100 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail near Fortuna ND, and wind gusts to 70 mph near Webster SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, with up to six inches reported around Tulsa OK. Some roads in the Tulsa area were closed by water 10 to 12 feet deep. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Thunderstorms produced winds gusts to 75 mph in Major County OK, and hail two inches in diameter at Jennings KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 20 Thu National Chocolate Pecan Pie Day 20 Thu Feast day of St Bernard 20 Thu World Mosquito Day 20 Thu National Radio Day 20 Thu National Bacon Lovers Day

We are under a flood watch thru 2am for between 1 to 2 inches of rain and maybe more for some spots that get under a thunderstorm. We will get cooler tomorrow and that will last through the next week with temperatures mainly in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees for high temperatures. We should see nighttime lows back into the 50's by early next week.

We are under a flood watch thru 2am for between 1 to 2 inches of rain and maybe more for some spots that get under a thunderstorm. We will get cooler tomorrow and that will last through the next week with temperatures mainly in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees for high temperatures. We should see nighttime lows back into the 50's by early next week.

Amen, brother, amen!