All Activity

82/83 was east based too. It holds the record for max RONI SSTA at 2.4 in 12/82 & 1/83. We're close to that right now. Can't throw out that one. We'll be fighting temps all winter. That's a guarantee, but that's nothing new for the MA. Though December might yield a light fluke, we're probably waiting for 1_15 or later imho.

Hard to argue

I recommend this brand.

Was this wind forecast? Worse than anything this month

yeah, i'm over 40 done with the CAD life

I mainly track ENSO for its effects on tropical cyclone activity but I do have some surface-level knowledge (emphasis on "surface-level") on its correlation with NA winter synoptics. From what I gather 1997-98 seems to be a prime analog this year given the strength and flavor/orientation of the Niño which isn't promising (torch city with very little resulting snowfall as a result). I would also think the comparatively greater magnitude and eastward extent of this event may be cause for even more concern this time around? Because we're at record levels in both cases: Hopefully I'm wrong and we do find a window or two where we are able to cash in within an established unfavorable pattern though.

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

My niece was right in the middle of this one. Sounds like she and her property are ok. I'll let you know if she experienced anything bad or interesting.

"Big Blue Blob™ weather" -@Ian

Those…..were…….AWESOME it was incredible. Earth shaking thunder and frequent lightning strikes either here or very close by. Rain was so heavy at times I couldn’t see past our patio door. I took fantastic four minute video of it and when I learn how to post it I will. Edit: tornado watch issued until 6pm pst here

WAD>CAD

No worries hopefully can catch it next time I saw a post of it but was like probably won’t be able to see it cause all the way over to where Florida is but had the areas all the way to where middle TN which was impressive .

I'm still beating up myself for not knowing. We were perfectly positioned on Hilton Head Island. Perfectly clear sky. Look up and see the Milky Way without time to adjust.

I was truly shocked how the cold rushed over the Plateau during the day! It was forecast, but seeing is believing. Takes me back to sudden Plains fropa and I loved it! Then Jax's previous post.. If we play our cards right, that's severe weather in mid-November leading up to Thanksgiving depending on timing. Path from SER to BN heights, baring a stupid cap like last week, is severe wx. I infer southwest flow on the weekly products.

As a further test of the new higher-resolution ECMWF, I pulled the data for today's high temperatures for select NYC area locations. This data is also from the 10/21 0z cycle. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

Congrats Dendrite ! Put it in a smoothie with vanilla high protein yogurt, its really good. Definitely a unique flavor combo. Those fruits look awesome

We'll probably get periods of -NAO as the massive tropical warmth pushes poleward and tries to reflect back. However, cold air supply will be a problem. Fighting the PDO could be a problem. I'm still looking for a really mild winter. First for November, if any of these weekly products are even close.. tee up severe leading into Thanksgiving!

I think the mid season warming may end up more of a reflection event/CW.

The GEFS NAO prog continues to correct to more positive. Check out how much it has risen over the last 8 forecast days: Oct. 13th fcast mean had it never getting >+1 and that on Oct. 15th with it later down to sub -0.8 for 6 days with it continuing through end of forecast period; It had Oct. 27th down at -0.9: Today’s forecast is so much more positive: it actually peaked way up at +1.73 on Oct 19th and with forecast now dipping only to -0.7 on Oct 22nd followed by a sharp rise to +0.8 on Oct 27th (vs the Oct 13th run having it down at -0.9): Per @Stormchaserchuck1this solidly +NAO in Oct. is actually a good sign if one wants the chance for a -NAO domination in winter to increase. I’m just passing that along as it isn’t my own idea. Forecast models are suggesting a good chance of a -NAO in Feb, regardless. Before that will be tough imho due to at least solar but we’ll see.

Might be the shortest AFD I've read put out by LWX this morning Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 931 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisories issued through Thursday afternoon for an extended period of minor tidal flooding. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through early next week. Surface high pressure continues to build north of the forecast area through the end of the week, yielding dry conditions, seasonal temperatures, and limited cloud cover. High temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70s each day with overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s. High pressure will build southward out of southeastern Canada and eastern Great Lakes region Saturday through Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected each day. There could be some areas of frost Saturday morning. Temperatures will start out chilly Saturday with highs 5 to 7 degrees below average and highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. By Sunday, temperatures will be more seasonable. Monday will encounter highs approaching or reaching the 70 degree mark. By Tuesday, temperatures may be knocked down to seasonable once again. Highs in the middle 60s.

The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.

Don't worry, they still look the same.

You managed to inadvertently elicit one last sneak preview of my favorable window this winter before I go radio-silent to work.....WATCH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE KUROSHIO CURRENT AND KONA LOW OUT IN THE PACIFIC CONTINUE TO GROW

Wow! 12" in 1969. We had 5" that ended as zr just south of BWI. But it was great nonetheless. I remember it well. (at my age, remembering 57 years ago is easy....it's 57 minutes ago that's the problem )