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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Blizzard of 93 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The Deb doom casting is getting a little out of hand… -
“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
ORH_wxman replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
This one is definitely a threat. My guess is it falls short of 2005 for SE MA but you never know. There’s a lot of QPF and a lot of inflow and I’m definitely “concerned” (as in there is a lot of upside) with the way H5 deepens so rapidly to our south which causes some serious potential for instability getting advected in aloft. -
Depends sometimes I’ve seen tight cutoffs in these setups and sometimes not. Im not sure exactly what it depends on truthfully.
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2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
DDweatherman replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Predictions for the 12z euros? Come back more like 6z did or slide east? -
@CAPE for the last time I’m not saying we can’t get snow when everything goes perfect. If a deform crushed us with 2” qpf. But if I need marginal to work. Thats when we’re bleeding results away and you know that. Not sure why you think it’s funny. I don’t. It is what it is. But I don’t find it funny at all.
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
SouthCoastMA replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Something I need to invest in. I'm effed -
Looks like WPC probabilities of 6"+ are 50% for inside the DC Beltway, 70% further north into Annapolis and most of Baltimore metro.
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
DavisStraight replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
GFS had it coming here first, hope it leads all the way. -
About 6" here, 26F and cloudy at noon. Just finished cleanup, the snowbanks are pinching the driveway from both sides again, just when they were shrinking back a bit. Had to take the extra time to push them back more *just in case* the monday deal throws a renegade band overhead, these deep coastals always have a surprise or three in them so though I'm not expecting much here, discretion said to make room.
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You joke but when my area gets results from a miller b it’s ratio dependent. I never out qpf places east of me but I’ve pulled off 15-20” from .75-1” qpf before. If I get 5” of slop from .7 qpf because it’s 33-34 degrees that is very much related to the issue you’re making fun of.
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Agreed. The fundamentals of this are that the precip shield will be much broader than most globals have. You don't have a <980 low at the BM and have Allentown only at 4". I think the GFS has the right idea in terms of intensity and broadness of the precip shield. I would expect 12+" totals all the way to the LV.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Ruin replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I hope we get 6-8 just to shut up local news weather always low balling us -
I say call it even!!!
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Staging my generator today, might need it -
Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Chicago Storm replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
that’s what this pattern is. -
its ok to change your tune when you have new and better information; that's science.
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At this point I’m confident with 4-8in in the Lehigh Valley and 8-14in+ from Bucks to Philly
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
This resembles Feb 2013 more than 15 or 22 to me. Wind and tree damage could rival that. -
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2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
DDweatherman replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
I like you for just about 6… of course lol -
2.7” on 0.56” melted down
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
SouthCoastMA replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
05 was my largest too, 26-30" -
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I'm hoping our areas can get into the meat of the IVT. Lots of models putting that over or close to our hoods. Definitely more of a nowcast with that feature.
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2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
NorthArlington101 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
I’d lean the lower edge of call it even but I’m just a guy. Best of luck lol
