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I saw this and was like... here we go lol

Feels familiar. Also the lee side hole is very familiar

It’s quite incredible the consistency of the Grinch Storm. All of the chaos and unpredictability that is meteorology and you can without hyperbole, statistically lock in a cutter around the Christmas holiday is absolutely mind-bending.

I had a bit of hope for a novelty event last night but its trending north again. Doubt we get even token flakes.

great start for the local places here in CT too-nice snowmaking weather and some got 6 inches from the event last week

Hopefully the coasties score soon. Sad to see DC get snow before Philly NYC and Boston.

Euro seasonal is warm generally in the January to March period.

Short-range all trended a bit north, sound familiar? Most accumulation in VA or NC mountains

Maybe we can switch it up a bit and get a tropical system on Christmas

I agree with met I think the northern mountains will be the sweet spot for this one. Looks like a good bit of moisture and shouldn’t have temp issues like people south and east of them.

26.5/23.7 with mostly clear skies this am. Lost a good bit of snow with the sunshine and low 40's temps. 4.0 OTG yesterday, 1.0 today, with bare on south facing and 1.5 or so in shaded areas.

I know that my friend…I did that on purpose…because you said I was confused. My post was not confused. The signal is there…..and seems to be growing stronger. All we need to see at this lead.

Already 1.2” of fluff from last night and this morning.

What a beautiful, snowy Sunday morning

I’m going to keep being skeptical of SE ridges past D5-7. Maybe it happens this time just in time for Santa.

Latest WB weeklies Dec. 20 to Jan. 20. Looks pretty good to me. Not a suppressed look and a little below normal temps and above normal precip. works in January.

North of Raleigh it is below freezing this morning with fog so I am curious if there is rime in the trees.

Long range warm-ups have generally been muted or reversed this season. So anyone hoping for lower heating bills better be prepared for no end. The pattern has to break at some point, of course, with February being the likely time frame if January fails. The problem remains snowfall as usual.

I see you used the +/- 5 latitude VP. I know some sites use a broader area like +/- 15 degrees and with anomalies. Do you find this selection to be the most relevant? I'm still wading my way into understanding the MJO better. I attached some GEFS plots for the current precip and VP anomalies. I think a good chunk of what might be more 7-8 forcing is below 5 S with the record warm temperatures off of Australia. But I definitely see the 4-6 forcing within the +/- 5 latitude band too.

It looked like it was going to over perform, congrats friend. This winter is truly spreading the wealth, it’s so awesome to see everyone get in on action.

Nice signal boys, let’s go.

Wow! I saw white roofs before seeing the ground and thought it snowed overnight. Beautiful winter morning.

I’ll reiterate again. When someone clicks confused on a post .. it means the person that typed the post is confused not the person that chose the confused emoji. They’re letting you know that you were confused on your post

Not the pattern for big east coast storms. Clipper pattern .

The pattern goes zonal at the end of the latest EPS and GEFS runs leading up to Christmas, but verbatim temps would be average to slightly below. 15 days out so fwiw as always.