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We're def getting widespread rain and at least embedded thunderstorms. Just a matter of whether there will be any embedded strong/severe storms, and if so, is it rather localized or more scattered?

If we get a bit more clearing then I’m feeling it today. Last week I got back to back days of legit severe storms. One of which was stronger than anything in the past couple years. Something to remember from both days is some CAMs were anemic the day of, so I’m not too worried about them. Additionally, both days last week produced that in spite of no shear.

Mesoanalysis showing strong CAPE tongue building into the areas east of Frederick or so.

I thought for sure last night that cell coming from chapel hill would get western wake but alas nothing! One bright side with the drought is that I don’t think I’ve had to kill a mosquito yet this year. From that perspective it’s been really awesome

Trash night, let’s see what happens. 87F/DP 64F

It’s pretty sultry out there. I’d be shocked if storms hold off too long.

For those still watching, the last two Euro runs do something very weird with our area of interest. It tries to organize it well inland and treks it across the south. Can't say I've seen that before lol. Still a chance for some marginal development later in the week as a front tries to get involved in the NW Gulf.

Despite a few camera malfunctions, I got some video of the Union Pacific Big Boy in Nesquehoning this morning. When I get them edited and uploaded to YouTube, I'll share them here.

Most stuff is very meh for most of CT. The way things have gone probably the way to think . Even for more than a tenth or two

Looks like it's about to pour up at WXW2.

WB 14Z HRRR: not much going on during the day. Thunderstorms hit around sunset east of the mountains.

Yeah. Hope it is not just some gusty fast moving showers. I have a feeling it will be more along those lines with not much in the way of significant rainfall totals.

This is an issue with MADIS. The 83 mph gust is from a sonic anemometer on top of the Bay Bridge. That is the first report. The second 83 mph report in Parole is false, it’s due to a bug that duplicates the Bay Bridge sensor at SHA headquarters in Parole. The lay/lon is wrong in MADIS. The 75 mph gust is from a buoy at the mouth of the Severn.

Saw the announcement when it happened. Congrats! Will push some local friends y'all way. How is the network paid for? State funding?

Time would be my guess.

I'd take the high res depictions in a heartbeat. 3k and HRRR looked juicy overnight.

I hope you're right. It would be a shame if a good setup gets messed up by very late timing. Hopefully models like HRRR and Nam3km are wrong about the timing being that late. Still a good chance we'd see some heavy rain if it does happen that late though. We really need the rain so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.

Dews have crashed to the low 40s. Love this dry summer air.

Similar to every other severe event this spring the greatest threat is the wind

Area on 6/13….8.66 million sq km Heres how other years faired on the same date (I.e, 2012 had 420k less area than this year on the same date) 2012: -420k 2025: -130k 2019: -60k 2016: -50k 2007: +150k 2020: +190k 2011: +230k 2010: +240k 2023: +250k 2022: +280k 2021: +300k 2017: +310k Still a lot of time left in the critical month of June. We’re lagging 2012 decently but it’s definitely possible to catch up. On the flip side, if we continue to lose ground to 2012 over the next couple weeks, then we can rule out a new record this year. Most of the cake gets baked in May and June in the arctic sea ice workd

Well well. Look who it is. I hate these screen names who only log in sometimes or only in certain seasons. You only see them around when…. wait. Nevermind. Hey Ian! seriously tho, glad yall are independent.

0.17" overnight. Nice swath of 1-1.5" about 15 miles south of here. Up to 4.20" for June.

June 14 1981: A tornado hits Roseville, destroying homes and damages Har Mar Mall. Note: This was an EF-3. Story here: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/tornado19810614.html 1956: 8 inches of rain fall in the Ivanhoe area in 3.5 hours. 100 thousand dollars in damage to crops is reported. 1943: Torrential downpours cause flooding in the Twin Cities and east central Minnesota. 2.5 inches of rain fall in St. Paul in two hours. In addition, four streetcars are hit by lightning. For Sunday, June 14, 2026 1903 - The Heppner Disaster occurred in Oregon. A cloudburst in the hills sent a flood down Willow Creek, and a twenty foot wall of water swept away a third of the town in minutes, killing 236 residents and causing 100 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1961 - The temperature in Downtown San Francisco, CA, soared to 106 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thirty-two cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, tied their record for June, and the high of 101 at Milwaukee WI marked their first 100 degree reading in 32 years. Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to South Texas, drenching McAllen with 3.2 inches in one hour. A thunderstorm soaked the town of Uncertain with 2.3 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirty cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf States to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region during the day and into the night. There were 62 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds caused 28 million dollars damage in Montgomery County MD. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 14 Sun Bourbon Day 14 Sun Odunde Festival 14 Sun National Children’s Day 14 Sun World Blood Donor Day 14 Sun Army Birthday 14 Sun Flag Day 14 Sun International Bath Day 14 Sun Monkey Around Day 14 Sun National Bourbon Day 14 Sun National New Mexico Day 14 Sun National Pop Goes The Weasel Day 14 Sun National Strawberry Shortcake Day

Better support today. Much more shear. I think it'll arrive earlier, closer to 8-9