All Activity

I don’t like hyperbole early on, but I think I would be fairly shocked if the mountains get near normal snowfall this winter on composite super Nino years. Thats not to say it won’t snow, heck 235” on Mansfield is below normal. But it feels like the deck is stacked a bit, especially if it’s a slow start. It takes making up some good ground to make up for struggles in even Nov/Dec when you need to hit even monthly normal totals in Jan/Feb/Mar. Now, for NNE as a whole? The lower climo snowfall areas near population centers can rely more on several good synoptic events to get closer to normal. I think my fear up here is the daily light events struggle if it’s warm, and the 2-6” type stuff that adds up over time creates a deficit.

That certainly explains it. The Control runs are 95%+ of the time garbage. EDIT: They didn't say it was the Control run, but the "weeklies". If they're going to say it's the weeklies, they need to include weeklies Control run. Pretty disingenuous if you ask me.

It’s actually rained here for a couple hrs now. Light rain, but way more than MRX had forecasted. The models lost all of the rain around Wednesday, and gradually added back in small amounts. The HRRR actually did really well with this event. The Euro was just too dry until today, when it finally found the rain that was ongoing. Now, granted it won’t amount to enough to really help with the drought, but it is nice to see more than just sprinkles.

Agree. Think of it as the OP Euro at 912 hours lol.

Maybe its right,the Siberuian HIgh is getting broke down the next several days,this causes some significant colder intrusions in East Asia when its posistive,in a negative phase you see height rises in East China through Japan,should warm up before before Thanksgiving,but not really sure its to an extreme of what Social media is calling for in Nov as being so warm

Yeah. I’m not sure a 912 hour control run is worth posting about and discussing. lol

9th warmest at Detroit as well with 58.3°. Interestingly, the warmest Octobers are all long ago. 1963 62.7 1947 60.3 1900 60.0 1920 59.5 1879 59.5 2021 59.4 2007 59.1 1971 58.5 2026 58.3

The map above is the Euro Weeklies Control run, not the averaged weeklies.

Oh ill complain about them from mid to late November through March . but ill praise them during summer.

Maybe the Ravens can get lucky in a way IF they want to move on from Jackson - That team up I95 that I lived and died with since the late 80s as a kid with 1 tv station and AM radio down here up until the past 2 seasons - yes I now actively root for them to loose each week - the JETS franchise needs a total reset or just be demoted to the CFL - The classic Jets move would be to trade a bunch of these 5 first round draft picks they have in the next two drafts for a often injured aging QB...

Toledo had an average temperature of 58.2. It was the 9th warmest October

novemborch

I’ve been below freezing 2 times this fall but I’m right next to the pike barrens. 29.8 on 10/25

OK folks. I am slipping. I MISSED 15 INCHES OF SNOW LAST NIGHT AT MAMMOTH! I can't even BELIEVE I was not even AWARE of the heavy snowfall! I am so heartbroken! I think one reason I missed the snow was because I was delivering from midnight to 5am. It was SUPER BUSY!

Actually had steady rain all afternoon and it's moderate to heavy at times over the last hour. After modeling backed off and rain chances from MRX crashed from 90 percent down to 30 percent, I figured the writing was on the wall and we'd be dry or get a sprinkle at best.

lol that's up to Lamar. He might want to move on given the current state of this team. Even though he is perceived by some as being a bit past his prime given his style of play, and injury prone(today was not an example), he will have multiple suitors. Maybe Lamar should have agreed to an extension, or maybe EDC did a shitty job trying to get that done. Who knows. At this point his future as a Raven is up in the air.

Yeah, off the charts warmth across the entire Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic leading to yet another daily global high temperature record.

Noticed one of the Azaleas in backyard had some new flowers blooming today .

The freaky thing is the lack of any even semblance of cold air anywhere across conus or even central and eastern Canada. It's just a total torch anywhere that's not Siberia or the high arctic right now. The snow levels with the current storm in the rockies are an absurd 11,000 ft. It's like the tropics moved to Colorado lol.

Islip has a good chance of approaching or setting a new latest first freeze given the record warmth for November across North America. Latest First/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2022 03-30 (2022) 25 11-15 (2022) 29 229 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 2005 04-17 (2005) 30 11-11 (2005) 30 207 2024 03-24 (2024) 30 11-10 (2024) 32 230 2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224

Unseasonable warmth will prevail through much of the first week of November. Dry conditions will likely persist until late in the week. The potential exists for a 1.00" or greater rainfall Friday into Saturday. Behind the storm, cooler but not especially cold air will move into the region during the weekend or early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -3.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.277 today.