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Luck, good and bad, happens in pretty much all winters. Everytime you guys talk 82-83 i cringe because it was definitely the worst strong nino of the bunch here, but I also realize some bad luck was involved in January and February. The extremely uncharacteristic lack of snow here was likely an extra slap in the face coming off the very snowy 1981-82.

Last few winters have been generally good across the SE with some caveats. Are we still capable of pulling off a blockbuster? Remains to be seen… but we are due for one.

Looks like around 1" in this area. Good start to the month from a precip standpoint. As expected, nothing exciting or noteworthy from a t-storm standpoint, but I'll take the rain.

Should not be in 2026. There are forums that you can share multiple images like those. But I will use imgur from now on.

We rain.

1.31" rain here so far. 73.9/73.3, i.e., its really wet

weather events don't always need to be insurrections to be entertaining and enjoyable

August and Summer (Jun-Aug) were warm for basically the entire lower 48 this year. I fudged the scale on this to make it closer, but the pattern resembled a 1994, 2003, 2012, 2018 blend. In the Summer, 2003/2012 were both El Ninos in terms of SSTs (close to 28C). June-August was my hottest Summer on record: average temp of 81F here v. 80.4F (2011) previously. El Ninos that show up as both near record hot and near record dry are 1953, 1958, 2003, 2023. These are highs for the following Oct-May. Bold is colder v. 1991-2020. 1953-1954 72.6 58.4 42.9 50.3 61.4 58.9 76.8 81.0 62.8 1958-1959 68.6 58.6 54.6 45.4 51.2 59.6 70.4 78.8 60.9 2003-2004 74.3 56.3 47.8 48.4 48.2 65.3 65.7 81.8 61.0 2023-2024 74.8 57.9 49.7 48.5 56.1 60.4 70.8 81.2 62.4 No strong signal for any time-frame being cold, but March is closest followed by February. You've got no real cold signal at all in these years in the Fall, Oct 1958 is -2F, Nov 2003 is -1F, but those are washed out by the others. Dec 1953 is about -5F, but Dec 1958 is +7F. Jan 1959 is -3F, others warm. Its really Feb/Mar with the best shot. Feb averages out to about 1991-2020 mean high, and March averages out 2F below it. Even for March, you have a warm counter-example. Oct-May Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Oct-May 1953-1954 0.46 0.91 0.29 0.20 0.07 0.24 0.00 0.51 2.68 1958-1959 1.72 0.37 1.35 0.17 0.04 0.42 0.43 0.80 5.30 2003-2004 1.58 0.49 0.11 0.10 1.17 0.67 3.00 0.00 7.12 2023-2024 0.00 1.00 1.01 0.33 0.41 0.27 0.33 0.06 3.41 0.94 0.69 0.69 0.20 0.42 0.40 0.94 0.34 Precip has mixed signals too, but each month from Oct-Dec has 2/4 years with 2x average precipitation or more, so that'd be my guess for the wetter period. January looks much drier than average with no above average months, and Mar-May is very erratic but finishes near average as a blend, largely on 2003-04. Best guess is 2-3 wet months from Oct-May. Snow is much more interesting - about 12.3" total, which is what I keep getting when looking at similar patterns. Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb are all 3/4 cases of measurable snow, March is 2/4. My research has previously shown that hot/dry Summers locally favor "out of season" heavy snow. You can see Oct-Nov/Mar-May snow averages 4.0 inches in these years, which is high for those months locally. November has the strongest signal relative to average for a snow event (more likely than average (75% v. 50%) and higher totals than average (2.7" v. 1.0"). December has one of the top ten snow months locally as well, Dec 1958. 1953-1954 0.0 7.5 3.7 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 1958-1959 0.0 2.2 14.2 1.7 0.6 4.8 0.0 0.0 23.5 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.4 2023-2024 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.4 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 Blended: 0.0 2.7 5.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.0 0.0

The 12z GFS starts to break down the furnace by about the 15th. It has snow almost in northern Maine at some point during that run. It may be grasping at straws, but there is a glimmer of hope. I think we at least see a few cold fronts being to break the pattern by mid-month. We need a tropical system to break this pattern, but it is tough getting tropical systems anywhere near the US coastline during El Nino. I am really hoping the heat on modeling is feedback. We are entering that timeframe where models will miss the first couple of cold fronts. The GFS tends to do a little better during fall than the Euro in regards to spotting cold. The ridge in the middle of the country has been TOUGH to budge this summer. I know those folks have to be ready for it to depart!

They are definitely beer months. Months of beer. Months full of beer. Beer for months.

Really rare hiccup from the NHC with their timestamps... Edit: The public advisory has been corrected.

Ahh I get it. LOL...I was way overthinking this.

Landfall. Good effort.

Downpours are cool if they cause flooding. Otherwise it’s boring. However, as someone running around with a garden hose trying to save their plants, downpours are appreciated.

Oh you mean the one that someone said was not boring. I’m still shaking from the rush that 4 minutes of heavy rain gave me

Granted higher chance for this (bolded mine) is to our north Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Widely scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night. ...Synopsis... A belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level winds will spread from the Great Lakes into the Northeast in tandem with a series of low-amplitude disturbances. Elsewhere, a negatively tilted shortwave trough and attending mid-level jet streak will progress through the northern Rockies Wednesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, the primary baroclinic zone is expected to extend from low pressure over James Bay through the Great Lakes and mid MO Valley into the northern High Plains. A backdoor front/quasi-stationary boundary will reside over the Mid-Atlantic, the specific location of which will be dictated by the extent of outflow associated with early-day storms and the strength of low-level ridging stretching from the Gulf of St. Lawrence through the Northeast. ...Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic... As alluded to in the synopsis, thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday from portions of WI and MI into NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent associated with a lead short-wave trough. The strongest storms will be capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and/or damaging winds as they spread east-southeast through the lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. In the wake of the early-day convection, prevailing west-northwest mid-level flow will maintain a plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (e.g., 7 C/km) atop boundary layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, yielding MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000+ J/kg by afternoon from lower MI into western parts of NY and PA. Additional thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon from lower MI through the lower Great Lakes, aided by weak disturbances aloft and the moderate to strong instability forecast across the warm sector. The presence of 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will support organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures capable of large hail potentially approaching two inches and damaging wind gusts into Wednesday night. Tornado potential will be conditional on storm mode; however, the models do indicate stronger low-level winds and resultant larger SRH developing from southwest ON into NY and PA Wednesday afternoon into evening, where the greatest potential for a few tornadoes will exist.

looks like a hurricane landfall,but measured wind gusts in the 20kt-30kt range makes it... breezy for those areas

The other thing that I seem to notice during the past decade is that fall is just HOT. It does seem like when we have endless summer...that the ensuing winter features severe cold at some point. Why? I suspect the mechanism which can create the extreme heat during fall also supports extreme cold during winter - strong amplification. Short story...it seems like falls which have extreme heat feature strong amplification during winter at some point. IMBY, it has been pretty rare to see endless summer lead to a non-winter. We will see if the CANSIPS sobers up by October. Its October run often has some skill.

Looks pretty bad if you want cooler weather.

New Day 2 mentions higher chance for large hail and tornadoes SLGT risk moved further south towards RIC

Can't be as bad as August, right?

Super Ninos are generally blowtorch for MBY. Just interesting to see Cansips on the other side of the map. It really likes a strong ridge out West for much of winter, but not a lot of analogs w/ strong Ninos support that feature. However, I do think Tenn winters do kind of travel in packs as John notes. It does seem of late that extreme cold finds its way here for 7-14 days at some point during the winter regardless of the pattern. During the Nino winters of the 90s, it was like pulling teeth to get cold into those patterns. We'll see! Torch is probably the safe bet, but the Cansips has me looking over my shoulder. It is a good model for seasonal forecasts, but by no means perfect. The NAO is the trump card as well as the MJO which "could" support more convection over preferred MJO regions.

Low on the 90s maybe but a lot of mid-upper 80s with nasty dews and 70+low temperature readings this summer. ++Departures galore

110?