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18z GFS remains consistent with accumulations over the NW Piedmont and foothills/MTNs area.

that dude/page is literally the worst thing out there, by far.

anyone have the snowfall total map for this storm?

29.5" to date here in Metuchen. We've been very lucky this season relative to CPK on several storms.

I move that should this event actually turn into something real and a good snow event, that we name any thread for it "The Ravensrule VD Storm"!!!

Sad trombone noises

Snowbirdbob confirms:

Temp is 34 with this rain. It's slicker out now that it was at any point with the snow and cold. Grip is good when it's 25 or below.

Sorry to post this many hours later in here (and apologies for the banter), but I haven't been logged in for awhile. Anyhow, I also remember "needbiggerboat"!! Yeah, he was funny and I always liked his screen name and user icon pic. Very sad he disappeared (I recall hearing he did some time ago), and also that he had cancer. Hope he is doing OK.

The storms have been impotent, so comparatively this is potent.

Naked co-ed synchronized swimming anyone?

Isn’t it just gonna cold with some snow showers? Where is the potent winter storm?

Tomorrow will be another relatively mild day. Highs will likely top out in the lower to perhaps middle 30s. A few flurries are possible as a weak system drags a cold front across the region. Colder air will then return on Thursday. An even stronger surge of Arctic air could arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. Highs both Saturday and Sunday could be in the teens in New York City. The last time there were two or more consecutive such highs was during January 5-7, 2018. The persistent and often severely cold pattern could break near February 10th. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +24.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.750 today.

My floor is set

LIGHT SNOW LIKELY

52 breaks in the last week alone. Your area is def an older one and prone to breaks. Be happy tho. Baileys, Falls Church and Fairfax are way worse.

You’re right that I was thinking more from a E US and moreso from a SE US perspective and should have stated that. My bad. I just edited the post. See if you agree more with the new wording. For Michigan and all of the E US, it looks mild through ~Feb 20th. After that, when model skill is very low, it’s much more up in the air.

just need to get through that brief poleward jet extension which basically scours out the TPV from central and eastern canada, then we have a better cold air source for storms setting up across the Great Lakes later in the month as the aleutian ridge builds

Didn't an event similar to what might be coming up happen during the winter of 14 15 or 13 14. A very robust cold front went through with a period of snow squalls that left about an inch or two of snow in a extremely short period of time.

Special Weather Statement issued. Party time.

Yeah we can expect 3-4” of fluff now.

Tblizz just blessed this event.