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The Deb doom casting is getting a little out of hand…

This one is definitely a threat. My guess is it falls short of 2005 for SE MA but you never know. There’s a lot of QPF and a lot of inflow and I’m definitely “concerned” (as in there is a lot of upside) with the way H5 deepens so rapidly to our south which causes some serious potential for instability getting advected in aloft.

Depends sometimes I’ve seen tight cutoffs in these setups and sometimes not. Im not sure exactly what it depends on truthfully.

Predictions for the 12z euros? Come back more like 6z did or slide east?

@CAPE for the last time I’m not saying we can’t get snow when everything goes perfect. If a deform crushed us with 2” qpf. But if I need marginal to work. Thats when we’re bleeding results away and you know that. Not sure why you think it’s funny. I don’t. It is what it is. But I don’t find it funny at all.

Something I need to invest in. I'm effed

Looks like WPC probabilities of 6"+ are 50% for inside the DC Beltway, 70% further north into Annapolis and most of Baltimore metro.

GFS had it coming here first, hope it leads all the way.

About 6" here, 26F and cloudy at noon. Just finished cleanup, the snowbanks are pinching the driveway from both sides again, just when they were shrinking back a bit. Had to take the extra time to push them back more *just in case* the monday deal throws a renegade band overhead, these deep coastals always have a surprise or three in them so though I'm not expecting much here, discretion said to make room.

You joke but when my area gets results from a miller b it’s ratio dependent. I never out qpf places east of me but I’ve pulled off 15-20” from .75-1” qpf before. If I get 5” of slop from .7 qpf because it’s 33-34 degrees that is very much related to the issue you’re making fun of.

Agreed. The fundamentals of this are that the precip shield will be much broader than most globals have. You don't have a <980 low at the BM and have Allentown only at 4". I think the GFS has the right idea in terms of intensity and broadness of the precip shield. I would expect 12+" totals all the way to the LV.

I hope we get 6-8 just to shut up local news weather always low balling us

I say call it even!!!

Staging my generator today, might need it

that’s what this pattern is.

its ok to change your tune when you have new and better information; that's science.

At this point I’m confident with 4-8in in the Lehigh Valley and 8-14in+ from Bucks to Philly

This resembles Feb 2013 more than 15 or 22 to me. Wind and tree damage could rival that.

Didnt see the hrrr posted. Still snowing after this fwiw

I like you for just about 6… of course lol

2.7” on 0.56” melted down

05 was my largest too, 26-30"

AIFS 12z 6z and 0z

I'm hoping our areas can get into the meat of the IVT. Lots of models putting that over or close to our hoods. Definitely more of a nowcast with that feature.

I’d lean the lower edge of call it even but I’m just a guy. Best of luck lol