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Well, I said give it until mid month....this failure gets us there. Barring the prexmas miracle event, I'm marching inexorably towards playing a neon 1989 at the top of my xmas tree waiting for the ball to drop, hopefully on my fucj(king skull and putting me out of my misery.

As we all know, La Niña favors a weaker than average southern jet and we’re solidly into La Niña (per the MEI/RONI). So, this is totally expected based on ENSO.

It was growing up. Enjoy the snowy Sunday morning

Euro hr 51, 1031 H in the center of our precipitation lol make it make sense

You do have to admit it’s pretty fitting for the last several years, even if the ceiling on this storm was low. Everything beefs up, and then the euro comes out and says coatings, which it will nail. The frustration is understandable

Kevin claims December used to be our best winter month.

all levels will be below freezing during the storm!

One thing to add and I haven't looked at SSW maps today. It has been my experience that when we see a big WAR(western Atlantic ridge for the new folks), that ridge often precedes significant SSW events, especially if the ridge is anomalous. That WAR will also often preceded HL blocking as well. I don't have the lag on that, but I would guess 2-3 weeks and the bottom comes out.

I hear you, I’m beyond frustrated at this point. We just can’t get anything to go right. Like you said, the euro will nail this one after being complete garbage last week.

I'll be out west this weekend. Looks like I won't be missing much. Northern areas need a complete pattern change. Hopefully by January we get some real snowstorms instead of this NS nickel and dime stuff.

oh okay i think Zcash cryptocurrency will be priced at $100,000 in ten years!

Man I miss the days of yore. Classic storm build-up with corresponding model cinema, then the blog drops…

Lot of posters on tilt already on 12/11

According to what?

Model bounce has begun Euro up big runs tonight! I’ll say 3-4” or do max 5” isolated areas.

Like the slightly wider strip of success. Still pretty scared with this storm honestly, but a verbatim borderline WSW criteria run from the EURO at 3 days out can't hurt.

Good news is one less blog to write.

I had a long post and basically just dumped it...too long. The 12z GFS looks like it has an infinite loop which has crept into it(and other models) yet again. This time it is over the PAC NW and front range of the Canadian Rockies. Until that gets worked out, modeling is probably wrong. I don't understand how that feedback loop is making its way into all modeling(reference early December fiasco). Now, it could be right. However, when we see a vortex continue to spin up in the same place over and over....you probably have found an infinite loop. The 12z GFS shows what happens(late in the run) when the model exits the loop. If that loop isn't real, it will likely exit that loop much earlier in the period which is what happened in early December. As for the MJO, to me it looks like phase 7 on the actual OLR satellite map for today w/ some elements in 3 and 4. It is definitely flirting with 6, but the tops look brighter in 7 and even some in 8. RMM1/RMM2 has the MJO index in low phase 8 with it bordering on 7. It might be generous to have it in 8. The problem w/ phase 6 is that there is generally always some type of convection over the MC all the time at this time of year. That said, the cold forecast for tomorrow and bitter cold for Sunday/Monday looks like a classic phase 8 look. After that, we see either a pattern relaxation(if indeed that is an infinite loop) or a pattern change to a western trough(if the infinite loop is actually real). A gradient look w/ cold trapped in Canada...I can buy that. 8-10 days of repeated vortices spinning up over the PAC NW...not so much.

Must be them super Omegas...hah

The ratios will be high with this event .

Of course, it was way too far south for last week, and it ended up being rain, but it will nail this one being too far to the south. Can't make it up. Past decade....if it snows for SNE, it's wrong, if it doesn't, it's right.

ya that was a let down after the other guidance looking beefy

Way way north of other models cha cha cha lol

Idk what the 9” is but here’s Kuch map

Dr NO has returned, I see. Good trends on everything at 12z except the one that really mattered