All Activity

HRRR and RRFS have meaty storms and in two distinct waves. However, CAPE is rather low for this time of year for a svr event. Hodographs look better on the NAM/HRRR but no so much on the RRFS. 0-3 km CAPE is lacking on the HRRR and RRFS, so I have to wonder about tor potential. It is fairly strong s/w for June passing just to our N and overall wind field are good, so perhaps the dynamical part will make up for the rather low CAPE and that's why the HRRR and RRFS show meaty storms. PWATs ramp up nicely during the day. K-indices fcst get to upper 30s so likely big rain producers.

Another cloudy dreary day. I can't believe how stuck in this cloudy wet pattern we have been in here. About a month so far. Depressing.

I'm more "in" on this one than the prior events. It could still fizzle - and I certainly don't think it's going to be an "outbreak" - but storm coverage has higher confidence it seems - and the shear does raise some eyebrows! Also I'll be in the office - which seems to guarantee good storms (my office is in the core of the building with no windows - so I essentially miss anything that happens during cool events).

About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based.

Methinks we won’t be playing softball tomorrow night

Looks Modoki, but that's probably a long shot at this point. But it's not alone completely as Cansips has a more Modoki/central Pacific centered max: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=sstaMean_noice_month&runtime=2026060100&fh=8

I refuse to answer that question as I know that any answer will be used as a joke against me. Lol

I've noticed that if a 5% tor risk is present, that almost always means a tor watch is issued.

CRW is already at +1.2

This TC/MJO progression is going to initiate a massive WWB with a constructively interfering ERW at the end of this month into July. Another (new) DWKW guaranteed to follow. And we have a developing +IOD. I’m more convinced than ever that this event will easily be stronger than any El Niño we’ve seen since 1950 in both RONI and traditional ONI

I wish

Chilly morning with temps ranging from the mid 30's to upper 40's. Another nice day on tap with temps around 70.

Thats crazy for your desert climate

Happy Father's Day to all you dads!

June 21 1989: Fairmont has a wind gust of 76 mph during a severe thunderstorm. For Sunday, June 21, 2026 1893 - On the first day of summer the temperature at Dodge City, KS, soared to 106 degrees during the midst of a blistering heat wave. The heat wave initiated a severe three year drought in the Central Plains Region. Ironically, at about the same time, heavy rains in the Mississippi Valley were causing the river to swell to its highest level of record at New Orleans, LA. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1919 - Seven heavy coach cars of a moving train were picked up and thrown from the tracks by tornado winds. A baggage car was set down thirty feet away from the rest of the train. (The Weather Channel) 1954 - A severe hailstorm struck Wichita KS and vicinity causing nine million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - Phoenix, AZ, was drenched with 1.64 inches of rain late on the 21st and early on the 22nd to easily surpass their previous June rainfall record of 0.95 inches. The total for the month was 1.70 inches. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A tornado destroyed 57 mobile homes at the Chateam Estates trailer park northwest of Detroit, MI, killing one person and injuring six others. Total damage was estimated at 1.7 million dollars. Thunderstorms over Lower Michigan also drenched the Saginaw Valley with up to 4.5 inches of rain in less than six hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The first full day of summer was a torrid one, with afternoon highs of 100 degrees or above reported from the Northern and Central Plains to the Ohio Valley. Sixty-nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 110 degrees at Sioux Falls, SD, was an all-time record for that location. Highs of 103 degrees at Des Moines, IA, 102 degrees at Fort Wayne, IN, 109 degrees at Huron, SD, 108 degrees at Sioux City, IA, and 101 degrees at South Bend IN were records for June. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - The first day of summer heralded snow in the northern and central Rockies. In Colorado, 15 inches of snow was reported at the summit of Mount Evans and, in Wyoming, 18 inches was reported at Dickensen Park, west of Lander. Heavy rain continued in the eastern U.S. Huntsville, AL, reported a record 11.65 inches for the month, compared to the 0.17 inch rainfall total in June 1988. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - A slow-moving thunderstorm dumped up to a foot of hail in southeastern portions of Colorado Springs, Colorado. Snowplows had to be used to clear a route through a major thoroughfare in the city. Heavy rainfall from the storm left up to 4 feet of water in city streets, trapping dozens of motorists (Associated Press). Observances: 21 Sun National Selfie Day 21 Sun Go Skateboarding Day 21 Sun Father's Day 21 Sun National Daylight Appreciation Day 21 Sun International Day of the Celebration of the Solstice 21 Sun National Arizona Day 21 Sun National Cookie Dough Day 21 Sun National Day of the Gong 21 Sun National Dog Party Day 21 Sun National Peaches and Cream Day 21 Sun National Seashell Day 21 Sun National Smoothie Day 21 Sun National Yard Games Day 21 Sun Shades for Migraine 21 Sun Siding Check Day 21 Sun World Giraffe Day 21 Sun World Humanist Day 21 Sun World Hydrography Day 21 Sun World Day of Music 21 Sun World MotorCycle Day 21 Sun International Yoga Day

Have you ever seen an inch in that desert?

The CAMs (to varying degrees) all have decent amounts of storm coverage too - unlike some of the prior events recently.

WB 3K NAM at 2 pm Monday. Another round about 10pm. WB 12Z RRFS is similar but an hour or two slower.

Just keep it dry until 2 pm.

Stein teased you with ltg over the water while he caressed you with his webbed hands.

I predict that R 3.4 and R 1+2 will be up to +1.1/+2.4 in tomorrow’s weekly update. These would be up from the +0.9/+2.1 of last Monday’s report.

WB 12Z models as they come in: 3K NAM;

it's been awful here for 3 weeks. need it more than ever

Stein is embedded in the DNA of these systems. I'm not trusting any meaningful qpf being modeled here until I see it