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I can hear the trees breaking and falling already

Light rain.

Jeff will be wearing shorts & sandals this weekend if the Euro is right. Which I’m betting it is. Modeling really sucks anymore.

If you thought Metfan was the biggest weenie on here, think again.

Does anybody know of any ancient Native American dances used to ward off phasing?

closing in on an inch of new fluff, been off and on since about 7 I'd say

Because you like the output right now. If it shows an OTS solution tomorrow or cutting through Michigan you will want the plug pulled on it.

There’s so much salt on the road that it’s basically wet with this fluff but driveways have about 1/4 so far

I think he's still around, no?

Wow, talk about variability especially the NS. So just a cursory look at this loop, the ridging, etc., along the East Coast doesn't look to change all that much. The southwest trough bounces around. But that NS trough...holy cow, it has a much different look at 18Z with that extension much farther west along the US/CAN border!

It was snowing 17.5°

Euro AI is the best weather model in the world!

Will forgo the analysis post for today, frankly these recent runs have got me rather confused and we got the legendary data ingestion for 0z Will probably aim for 12z runs tomorrow as when I make it.

Nice and steady. Looks great out there.

Agree I also like to evaluate a whole suite before getting too reactive. I'm not sure even tonight at 0Z we'll get definitive answers but what you'd hope for is no radically new solutions to what we are already seeing.

It’s interesting that the Euro used to have a bias of burying Baja lows, hanging them back to the southwest too long. Wonder if they over corrected the physics to remove this bias. .

New year, same story. Here are the maximums, minimums, and average temperatures (degrees Fahrenheit) for January 13th and January 21st this year at Reagan National Airport (DCA): January 13th: Maximum 53 Minimum 30 Average 41.5 January 21st: Maximum 43 Minimum 19 Average 31.0 This is the 5th consecutive year that January 13th has averaged at least 8.5 degrees warmer than January 21st at DCA, and brings average temperatures for those two days in DC (DCA since 1945) to the numbers in the below summary table during the 155 years since daily temperatures began to be officially recorded in DC in January 1872. I have broken down that 155-year period into 1872-1983, when January 13th was the coldest day of January and January 21st was the second warmest day of January in DC; 1984-2013, when January 13th was the warmest day of January and January 21st was the coldest day of January at DCA; and 2014-2026, which is the 13-year period since I discovered the flip-flop between January 13th and January 21st. Period Jan 13 Jan 21 Jan 21 minus Jan 13 1872-1983 33.3 36.8 +3.5 1984-2013 40.3 32.1 -8.2 2014-2026 41.3 32.4 -8.9 If only maximum temperatures are analyzed for January 13th and January 21st, the summary table shows an even greater temperature disparity for those two days during those three periods: Period Jan 13 Jan 21 Jan 21 minus Jan 13 1872-1983 40.2 44.8 +4.6 1984-2013 48.5 39.5 -9.0 2014-2026 51.1 39.5 -11.6 So what exactly is going on here? When I first discovered the January 13th/21st temperature flip-flop in early 2013, I consided that it could be a random variation, but its magnitude seemed too large to me for that to be the case. I did have to concede, however, that if the flip-flop disappeared or significantly weakened as the years moved on, a random variation would be the best explanation. As of today, January 21, 2026, I conclude that a random variation is now off the table as a plausible explanation because it is off-the-charts unlikey that such a varation would not only continue, but actually increase to some extent in magnitude during the past 13 years. Consider the astonishing situation regarding maximum temperatures on those two days at DCA: Between 1872-1983 and 1984-2013, the January 13th average maximum increased 8.3 degrees from 40.2 to 48.5, while the January 21st average maximum decreased (in the face of rising annual temperatures) 5.3 degrees from 44.8 to 39.5, for a 13.6 degree relative change. However, instead of those two days moving at least somewhat closer together in maximum temperature during the most recent 13 years, which would have been almost certain if the flip-flop during 1984-2013 had been a random variation, the January 13th average maximum increased an additional 2.6 degrees to 51.1, while the January 21st average maximum stayed the same at 39.5. If I were to speculate as to what is going on, I would guess that it has something to do with the unprecedented rise in Arctic temperatures since 1983 fostering a currently unexplained phenomenon in which Arctic air is somehow generally blocked from arriving in DC on January 13th, while being somehow generally facilitated to arrive there on January 21st. Hopefully, someone who is knowledgeable about weird meteorological phenomena can determine the specific mechanism that has enabled the current situation.

32 with light snow in Wolf. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Sorta reads we are gonna wait and not make changes till we get the flight data. .

https://x.com/brandonlanewx/status/2014119481144955012?s=46 An interesting little trend. I know the precip/clown maps aren’t what we want to see but worth keeping an eye on, especially after more data gets ingested tonight.

CMC is best case scenario north IMO.

-22 in Leesburg lmao. Going to be cold AF for sure, but this is crazy output.

Interesting...even from a slide rule old fart!

Yeah, which is definitely unfortunate. The good news is there’s at least some snow cover, and there won’t be much modification of the airmass due to the upstream snowpack combined with the winds/advection. This will be one of those arctic outbreaks where the airmass is very impressive (which I define as -35C or colder at H85 somewhere in the lower 48), but the ground temps underperform relatively speaking. Still a decent arctic outbreak, but not what it could be. This is opposite of what occurred in January 2009, where the airmass wasn’t crazy cold but there were very low temps due to fresh deep snowpack and clear/calm conditions. Regardless, we may see the coldest temp here since January 2019.

https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/weather/2024/02/lehigh-valley-weather-heavy-band-of-snow-dumps-foot-or-more-from-macungie-to-hellertown.html#:~:text=Lehigh Valley weather%3A Heavy band,more from Macungie to Hellertown&text=Snow falls in the Lehigh,Valley on Feb. 17%2C 2024.