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I went to Maroon Bells via Aspen on Saturday, where I got caught in a light rain shower. That was one amazing place with some of the best views I’ve ever seen! I took 80 mainly pics with a few videos. If you haven’t been, I very strongly recommend it. Has anyone here gone there? I started the day driving to Aspen that morning. I first took a free city bus from Aspen to the Aspen Highlands ski resort. Then I took a reserved shuttle from there to Maroon Bells. I arrived just before 11:30AM and got to the lake at 11:45. I figured that would still be early enough to miss the rain per what the Euro/GFS/UK/Icon/RRFS/NAM showed. They all suggested it wouldn’t rain til at least 2PM and more likely not til 3PM. But sure enough, it rapidly clouded up and it started raining at just after 1PM. Is it common for the models to be too late on the start of monsoon activity each day? Fortunately though, it remained light and there was no lightning. Luckily, the rain ended ~1:30. It never rained enough to make the trail slippery or muddy. As I was leaving ~2:30, it just started raining lightly again. @ValpoVike

Over/under 0.5 rumbles of thunder heard this week

I will do so. It should be available by around September 5th. In terms of the 400-year period, he's overgeneralizing and cherry-picking from this study, which deals with spring in the western Himalayas. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/2/132 He's also ignoring this information: Our reconstruction showed cooler conditions during 1658-1681 CE, 1705-1722 CE, 1753-1773 CE, 1796-1874 CE, 1900-1936 CE, and 1973 CE. Periods with comparably warmer conditions occurred in 1600-1625 CE, 1633-1657 CE, 1682-1704 CE, 1740-1752 CE, 1779-1795 CE, 1936-1945 CE, 1956-1972 CE, and at the beginning of the 21st century... The impact of climate change in the central Himalayan region of Nepal is more pronounced compared to other regions at similar latitudes... and hence Nepal is experiencing higher rates of temperature increase than the global average.... However, the observed warming rates show significant spatial variability, with a more pronounced warming trend in higher altitudes... Also, with regard to an added explanation that the rock beneath the glacier collapsed, some arguments are already being made that this disproves a climate link. Instead, it reveals the complexity of the processes. Frost-wedging from repeated freezes and thawing contribute to such developments. The water that finds its way into even microfissures expands as it freezes. It then melts when temperatures warm. This repeated cycle eventually causes larger cracks and, ultimately, the rock to split or break. The warming climate in the high alpine regions of the Himalayas has accelerated this form of rock weathering. For what it's worth, the New York Botanical Garden has a large glacial erratic called the "Split Rock." The rock ultimately split from repeated freeze-thawing cycles. Here's a photo of it from last winter. In short, frost-wedging might well have increased the fragility of the rock beneath the glacier leading to its fracturing.

I honestly don’t look at the gfs anymore. Euro is out to sea.

September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 1.0 0.9 3.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 1.5 0.2

Ready to be slow roasted tailgating for the UAB game Thursday afternoon for 8pm game

They are tornadoes that get reported to NWS by spotters/law enforcement/etc but may not have been confirmed by NWS. Some are duplicates (I think), some turn out to be non-tornadic wind events.

August SOI is approximately in the top ten most negative for the last 100 years. Finished at -14. These are the -10 SOI or lower Augusts, rolled forward to December. The -12 to -16 SOI Augusts, 1953, 1987, 1993, 1994, 2002, 2006 produce the same result. Aug SOI is pretty strong as an indicator for February too. Very strong correlations for a cold SE/warm NW as you'd expect with any ENSO correlation.

I could see this being a warmer and drier than average September in these parts. That southern ridge just keeps on flexing itself.

Rain into NE PA

That did not age well based on latest model runs.

Prozac and alcohol

It was a very brief heatwave that occurred later in the month. 1921 on the other hand!

12Z UKMET and other global probably are of little value due to how tiny system is. But fwiw and for the record: 12Z UKMET initializes this as a TD: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 91.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 28.3N 91.0W 1013 20 0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 27.9N 92.2W 1012 19 1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 29.2N 93.5W 1012 20 0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

GSO’s average high is below 85 now, so reaching 95 is a huge deal!

Hope

Dew points have surged to the low 70s, hopefully the last time this year. Barring any surprises this will end up as the 4th DRIEST August on record in the Twin Cities.

yes

Top 10 day. 75/54.

Overall a dryish month across the state. Broadly speaking the southern half of the state did OK. The northern half, outside of the mountains had a very bad month, especially the NE quadrant. Very frustrating as we had made huge progress from D2/D3 all the way back to D0 or D1 but now we're right back in the hole. What makes it even more frustrating is that it's not like a massive ridge baking out the Southeast; there's been plenty of moisture around and several episodes of good lift, stalled fronts etc. For some reason cells had a hard time popping and those that did seemed to have a short lifespan.

@Birds~69 how you holding up with the Cecily Tynan retirement?