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They are currently going through the 5 steps of grief but at different stages at various rates. Some are actually already at step 5. "3-5 inches isn't that bad" Denial: "This can't be happening to me," a defense mechanism to process overwhelming news. Anger: "Why is this happening to me?" Blaming others or feeling rage. Bargaining: "I'll do anything if this isn't true," making deals with a higher power. Depression: "I'm too sad to do anything," profound sadness and hopelessness. Acceptance: "It's going to be okay," coming to terms with the reality of the loss.

Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina.

You can't hide your lyin eyes. From your descriptions over the years, you seem to be in a horrible area for snow so I believe you.

I could picture the NAM ending up with one of those runs that produces 1.50-1.75"+ of QPF. I really need to get to Lowes and get those yard sticks. Might have time to go Saturday, hopefully they'll have some in stock

Many people are saying this

Nam would go bonkers with redevelopment. Oh boy…

Kind of the reason why I am so pessimistic is that models keep trending drier with more warm air invading. It simply won't shock me if total snow accum fell in that 6-8in range with that crap sleet on top.

Of course, it also does this. I don't buy it - its thermals seem rather suspect, but FWIW.

But in this case wouldn't it be colder air coming across @Carvers Gap since the map @fountainguy97 showed shows fingers of freezing rain? The 3km NAM shows a little bit of this, but strangely enough it does appear to be cutting across the mountains to me and not in the valleys:

Biggest, best, most beautiful snow storm we've ever seen?

Euro still drops 7" IMBY followed by 3" of lake effect on Monday.

Take it 2 da bank

You guys put way too much stock in the NAM when it’s right and when it’s wrong.

Lol at worrying about the nam at this range. That model almost trends towards the globals near gametime.

Lotta precip to our SW and cold thru 48. Only thing we should be taking away from RGEM. Fools errand using that model after 48 for sure

ICON clearly has the same dual precip swath structure as the NAM/GFS

WTVR 6 and NBC 12

3" sleet in DC May future runs go no further north

Mrs WxUSAF confirms it’s crazy out there with people getting groceries and gas. THEY will be wrong again because THEY said we’re getting 2 feet!

Knoxville wins the lottery with that one, keeps us completely clean.

Ouch

So I wonder if the downsloping is actually aiding in transporting the CAD over into Erwin keep those tongues of cold temps. Crazy

It aligns almost perfectly with my call from this morning so we roll with it

I dont think ive drank a thing today yet, but watching the first lob of moisture literally chase away the HP on the 18z NAM had me cackling at work.