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  2. Should be 4th day in a row with 95+ here and MLI.
  3. This is an excellent point. Concentration on the seasonal mean is absolutely pointless for the individual weather events. Hell even the warmest winter of my lifetime, 2023-24, had a 10 day stretch of brutal winter weather. It can go both ways of course (a cold winter can be boring). But any weather enthusiast who is too preoccupied with a likely seasonal mean has done a disservice to his hobby that got him here in the first place.
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  5. He’s coming to a backyard near you starting today . More boredom
  6. 13 days of forecasts by ChescoWx and so far we have had better accuracy then the NWS point and click every day.
  7. 13 days of forecasts by ChescoWx and so far we have had better accuracy then the NWS point and click every day.
  8. Looks like 4 days in a row with dewpoints well down into the 50s at least. Great stretch coming up.
  9. dewpoints really dropping now down to low to mid 60's with north winds
  10. Agree Sunday may see clouds and showers east
  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  12. Im not trusting any forecast for sunday. Expecting clouds and cool at beaches
  13. JMA seasoal will produce its first winter forecast this month. Last year it came out September 9th. So sometime over the next 5-10 days. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php
  14. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  15. I get what he is trying to say, but can you be a little more scientific about it????
  16. I don't think the fast flow will be a large issue this year.
  17. That's where my head is at too. I was once ready to totally write off winter, but I think AN precip while we struggle with the battle zone for temps in southern and maybe central NE is going to be the theme of the season. And that can work out very well, but I'm guessing we need less of that fast flow crap and more active STJ. Problem with the stalled front is that way more often than not they just carry whatever develops OTS. Speaking my language. Hybrid would work just fine.
  18. Today
  19. The stuff in PA does look like it could target the area again. Not sure it will be severe.
  20. It's been a while since we had one and the last few attempts didn't work out. I started the dates around mid-October since early October probably is too short notice (and selfishly I'll be away the first weekend of October and presenting at TriState Weather Conference the following week). I am hoping with some advanced lead time we can get a good gathering. I know November/December will also be difficult with holidays and I didn't put Halloween as an option as those with kids will probably be out getting candy.
  21. Storm woke me up, sounded like the end of the world out there. Lots of debris hitting my roof. Saw a few big trees down in DC on 14th street on the way to work.
  22. Day in and day out. Having a really hard time with holding onto elevated convection in setups like this. Decent instability gradient for them to ride down and shear improves this afternoon, so there's at least some chance this stuff makes it.
  23. 96 at 11:30…. On pace for our hottest day of the year
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