All Activity

Griteater was talking about the MJO, saying that while it's in Phase 8 per RMM, a KW/convection area flares in the Indo/Pacific and causes it to act like it's in Phase 6 through around December 12th-20th, before clearing and returning to a phase 8 look. That's likely the culprit behind the big warm up being modeled.

35 and finally all frozen... flurries. 0.04" of cold rain in the bucket.

Dry air is crushing us now in Albemarle. Pixie dust at this point. DP has dropped from 21 to 16 in the last 90 minutes. 3kNAM says we're about done. HRRR hints at another burst of precip in the next hour or so

Ya the hrrr is trash here

Hard disagree. They are two separate distinct shortwaves. Id be more concerned they are spaced so closely that they gum it up, and they both suck, which I’d actually place as probably the second biggest concern, to the sharpening trough.

From Raleigh N and East there may be a little wrap-around/back-building snow as well

This is almost certainly survivorship bias. Few here might remember the string of runs from the Euro and GFS and their ensemble counterparts from the week before that, showing a massive overrunning event that fizzled out at medium range.

thoughts y'all? i'm not saying it'll happen or not i'm just curious and your takes

Coming back to cut off for any dusting on the grass or car tops is Northern Oxford .

I got them Lee Side Blues.

You can tell things have slowed down with my business as we near the holidays....plenty of time for some updated analysis! Below are the Top 10 snowstorms since January 1, 2020 here in East Nantmeal Township. We have had 5 storms greater than 6 inches but only 2 storms that have exceeded 10" or more.

You can tell things have slowed down with my business as we near the holidays....plenty of time for some updated analysis! Below are the Top 10 snowstorms since January 1, 2020 here in East Nantmeal Township. We have had 5 storms greater than 6 inches but only 2 storms that have exceeded 10" or more.

Does Everyone REALIZE that Tomorrow is the 20th Anniversary of the Most Impressive Snowstorm in recent History around SNE? December 9th, 2005 I had 2 Thundersnow hits including 1 Lightning Bolt in the woods Right behind me. 12” Total. 3” per hour for 2.5 hours.

The tone today is a monotone snow weenie sigh under our thin cirrus deck while SE VA gets their 2nd snowstorm in a week.

I don’t buy the 12z EPS right now. It has no support from its deterministic model and has been wrong for several weeks in trying to slide a permanent ridge into the east. I think a ridge is coming but more likely around the 20th. I can’t tell if it just rolls through or is a pattern change. I could be wrong, but I think we are good through the 18th with possibly one more trough after that before we get a break.

I suspect that the issues the models have been having long range are related to the much faster Northern Stream of the Pacifc Jet which continues. It’s not typical to get a strong -WPO +EPO couplet at the the same time in December. So the shortwaves in the fast Pacific flow are lowering heights over Eastern Alaska while the -WPO ridge stands firm. At least into mid December the +EPO and stronger Pacific are trying to have the ridge roll out into the Plains while the -WPO would have the ridge axis more in the West. So a tug of war between two competing influences that we normally don’t see at the same time. My guess is that the ridge eventually comes east at some point during the 2nd half of December as the Pacific Jet eventually wins out in these situations. Notice how the 10 year December strong -WPO composite features a more -EPO and a relaxed Pacific Jet. Much stronger Pacific Jet and unusual +EPO in mid-December for a very strong -WPO block Past 10 strongest December 500 mb -WPO blocks didn’t have to compete with such a strong Pacific Jet and +EPO

Is this RIC or ORF?

Interestingly, the Euro Weeklies control and ensemble are exactly opposite again. Last time, the control won that battle. The control is 30 day strong trough. As for the MJO, there is some activity in 7-8-1-2. This morning it began the anticipated loop/stall in 8. I have little doubt the convection forecast for 1-2 will eventually propagate into 6. It looks to me like that will happen sometime in the third or fourth week of December. It could be earlier. Currently the MJO plot is in 8 and the atmosphere reflects that with an eastern trough in place and eastern troughs forecast through roughly Dec 20. Again, it is early December. This is not snow climo for valley locations.

Eps totally screwed mby with the snow to rain threat last week with 5" 4+ days out, 3" the day before and 2"+ on the 6z run the morning of the event v only to get close to 3/4" snow and sleet. I guess it's me, but the Eps are always wrong with accumulations imby.

Temps dropping and moderate snow... that's the dream combo!

Nothing crazy, but should be a little as the low pulls away

Va. Beach was a mix, but hard to see flakes at the moment.